NH-SEN: Shaheen (D) to run in re-match
Ds recruitment hurts Rs chance in 2008
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It seems likely that Ms. Shaheen will run. Early polls shows Shaheen ahead by 20+ points. Sen. Sununu has been an amazing Senator from a purple state. The Club for Growth is backing Sen. Sununu. Sen. Sununu is solid on judges and pro-growth legislation. Sununu also has a good working relationship with most of the Senate and keeps a lower profile than many. Altogether, he's a model Senator and a great one for Republicans to have from the northeast.
That being said, Rs in the northeast should help Sen. Sununu as much as possible. This race will be very hard for him to win. And along with CO and VA, it is looking like Rs would lose at least 3 Senate seats if the election were held today.
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NH-SEN: Shaheen (D) to run in re-match 20 Comments (0 topical, 20 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Those numbers are even worse than Santorum's numbers against Casey in 2005. I agree that he's a good conservative from New England and it would be great to see him get reelected, but he can't win. He's a sitting Senator and his opponent, who is very well known, is at 57. He's at 29. 57-29. That is insurmountable. I would like to be able to say otherwise, but it's true. If the people of New Hampshire want to work for a Republican Majority, they should drive across the border to help Susan Collins or work on Jeb Bradley's NH-1 rematch.
If you disagree, please explain what, short of Shaheen uttering the word "macaca", could shift those numbers that dramatically between now and next November.
After the embarrassing show put on in Washington DC, this week by the Democrats in their rush to create another defeat, with major fund raising scandals touching every Democrat presidential candidate; Republicans should be able to convince every person in America to vote for them. Instead, we're sitting here reading how we are going to losing in state after state. Why not try supporting Republican candidates and pointing out the reasons why no one should vote for a party that stands for death and defeat of this great nation, and who are being financed by those that want this nation destroyed. Republicans need to get to work not sit here crying that we are defeated before we even begin the race.
You failed to do as I asked. If you really want to argue that this seat is competitive, tell me what, short of Shaheen saying "macaca", will change these numbers enough for Sununu to have a chance next November. 14 months do not change poll numbers. Events over the course of those months can. So what exactly can move numbers that much?
it is one poll. My guess is that the race starts out around 50% Shaheen, 30-5% Sununu. That is quite bad. But Sununu has not done a lot to upset his constituents. He has a moderate image. This should not be given up easily.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
University of New Hampshire From July: 54-38 Shaheen
Monitor Also from July: 56-34 Shaheen
Not only that, but the numbers are headed the wrong way. If it were one poll, I'd agree we should wait for a confirming one. It's not. Shaheen is in the mid-50s and Sununu can't hit 40.
So I will ask again, what can happen between now and next November to put Sununu back in this? Time alone won't do it.
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Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Much as I don't think it does us any good to suggest that this seat or that seat is gone some 14-months out from the general election - do you similarly think it does any good to paper-over the fact that this is a deep, deep hole for a Republican incumbent in a deep purple (and trending blue) state to climb out of?
I mean, Jeanie has been running for this seat since the hour after she conceeded in 2002 (odd that not many republicans get the chance to do that, don't you think?) and the folks of New Hampshire dumped, rather unceremoniously, their GOP elected leadership last year - and they don't seem to have learned much from that experience.
Put simply, much as I am far from willing to write-off this seat (in particular) at this stage in the battle, to fail to acknowledge that keeping the younger Sunnunu in the Senate beyond Jan 2009 is going to be a biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig challenge doesn't really help us much either, IMO.
Just saying.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Much as I don't think it does us any good to suggest that this seat or that seat is gone some 14-months out from the general election
Then you concede my entire point.
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Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
Because I have a really good feeling it's a distortion of my position.
Go ahead: tell us it's going to be an uphill climb. I run uphill climbs every morning before 7am. It's hard work, and sometimes my knee hurts afterward, but it's doable.
DON'T come to this site and tell me that the Republicans have lost 14 months before the election and 13 months before a lot of voters have thought about the race, though.
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Reality: Thompson/Romney Dream: Santorum/Watts.
There does has to be a point where you stop telling yourself all the reasons why the job's almost impossibly hard and start doing it. We're at that point with the 2008 elections. It's going to be a gutbuster of an election, fine. Sobeit.
So let's start talking about how we win it anyway.
Moe
PS: And to preempt SIConservative: no, at the moment I don't know how we're going to beat Shaheen. But people get it precisely backwards when they sneer at people currently without an answer to that question: the idea, Republicans, is to help them find one.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
weak on defense quotes to illustrate that no enemy of the US would fear any democrat as president.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
Moe,
I'm a Ron Paul supporter. What you think of him is besides the point. The point is that he can't win, so I'll do what I can to support other candidates. I can contribute to the campaign, I can volunteer, I can get job on the campaign, write letters to the editor, put a bumper sticker on my car, and tatoo his name on my backside, but none of that will give him a chance. So instead I will do what I can to support the Republican House and Senate candidates who can win (though definitely not by employing the last method that I mentioned). Every dollar or ounce of energy that I expend to support Paul is not only a waste of my time but that much less that I am giving to electing Republicans. The more realistic we are about what we can and can't win, the more Republicans we will elect.
Now tell us how to beat her anyway.
Don't know? Then stop jogging the elbows of the people who haven't given up yet.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
the rest of your message pretty much got ignored.
Being probably less knowledgeable of New Hampshire politics than
most other states, I would offer only a couple of suggestions.
The national scene is where the Democrats are most at risk in my opinion; therefore I think every local Democrat politician should be tied to the disgrace the Democrats are nationally.
A national party that will not defend any part of America's interests anywhere, has no Presidential candidate that is not overwhelmingly tied to campaign fraud, has no national plan to solve any national problem except to raise taxes etc.
Blogs that are supposed to be conservative based, should be highlighting the disaster that is the theme song of the Democrats. Instead, on Redstate right now, I see one blog on one corrupt Democrat- Ref Jefferson.
Supporters of the local Republican candidate should be highlighting the ties of their Democrat opponents to the national party. Get the local party supporters out talking to their friends and neighbors. IMO, bringing in people from out of state to talk about instate politicians is not the best thing to do. As a South Carolina voter, the last people I would want, coming around to tell me about South Carolina politics and the people I should vote for, would be people from Georgia or North Carolina.
Instate Supporters should work to get the
local politicians elected, and work hard enough to get Republicans elected.
ChBRVNH
Outside of her lousy record as Governor and her nasty attack ads which open up the door for mistakes.Ask moveon.org. Bill Shaheen
Jean Shaheens husband while attending a Gore rally in NH splattered mud on Senator Bob Kerrey who was then a Bradley supporter and called him a "cripple" to boot.
Don't give up hope.
Since 2008 has the presidential ticket, I think that the result with this race as well as other races will depend on the presidential front runner and the focus of the campaign. If the Republicans run on the fair tax, national security, illegal immigration control, and the confirmation of conservative federal judges, conservatives will show on big numbers and democrats will loose big. If Republicans choose to ignore these issues and run a campaing based on "I am better qualify than my oponent, they and our country will loose". History has proven time over time that the conservative message always win, but the case has to be made to motivate conservative voters to show up at the poll.
I'm not sure why people are arguing about this race.
Obviously, it makes no sense to concede this election, 14 months before the actual election. What will Sununu do to turn things around? I don't know - we will have to see how his campaign handles things.
However, it also seems unlikely that we need to worry about funding Sen. Sununu. As a sitting incumbent, he will rack in the donations - I am sure he already has over a million by now. And the Club for Growth has promised to make a major effort on Sununu's defense. (Based on their prior actions, they don't seem to care much about the political viability of their favorite candidate when they choose to fund that candidate.) Between his own campaign, and the Club, he should have plenty of money to make his case to NH voters. The NRSC and the RNC, and you guys, need not worry about donating money in this race.
So don't send him donations, if you don't want to. He doesn't really need them.
Sununu is a great Senator who is worthy of conservative support. Sununu defeated Shaheen before, and he can do it again.
It won't be easy, but Sununu is the best Senator we have in the Northeast. New Hampshire Republicans should make this race Sununu vs. Hillary, melding Shaheen into Hillary.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.