NM-SEN: Wilson (R) in, Udall (D) out.
More shuffling to come
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (23) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Rep. Wilson (R) from NM-01 is running. Wilson is the first female veteran (Air Force Officer) in the House and would be the first in the Senate. She is also a Rhodes Scholar. Wilson represents a 51% Kerry district that is the swing district in the state.
Rep. Pearce is the other R in NM, is more conservative, and represents the most conservative district in the state (Kerry 41%). Wilson's base of support are the swing voters who will likely decide the election. However, because she represents one of the most D districts of any Republican, she has a more moderate record than most Rs.
Ex-gov Johnson (R), noted libertarian, emphatically denied the possibility of running.
Gov. Richardson (D) would be heavily favored if he runs, but has adamantly refused to do so. Rep. Udall (D) is the lone D Congressman and is not running. Mayor Chavez (D) of Albuquerque is waiting to be wooed and LG Denish (D) may also join the race. Denish has $1 million cash on hand, but it cannot be transferred to a Senate race. She seems likely to wait for the 2010 GOV race.
Thus, it is most likely a Wilson (R) v. Chavez (D) race right now but that could very easily change. If that is the line, it is a toss-up to lean R seat.
Details below:
From the Hotline ($):
Rep. Heather Wilson (R-01) "is expected to announce her intention to run" for the seat, and an e-mail from her camp was sent to supporters 10/4 encouraging her supporters to gather at her Albuquerque office for a 1:30 p.m. event today. Rep. Steve Pearce (R-02) "was silent" 10/4 "despite repeated inquiries." (Jones/Coleman, Albuquerque Journal, 10/4).
Land Commis. Patrick Lyons (R) said 10/4 "that he's leaning toward running," but said he might back out if Gov. Bill Richardson (D) jumps in. Lyons: "He'd be tough with all that federal money." Ex-Gov. Gary Johnson (R): "No, I'm not going to run for Senate" (Terrell, Santa Fe New Mexican, 10/5).
The Club for Growth "already unleashed an attack against Wilson" 10/4, calling her legislative record one "that runs both deep and wide in liberal waters" (Kraushaar, Politico, 10/5).Denish Is Being Wooed, But GOV'10 Might Be Harder To Pass Up
Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Udall (D-03) will not enter the race, a person close to him said 10/4. The source: "It was not a decision that was made lightly. He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House."
'98 GOV nominee/Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) said 10/4 "he has been barraged with calls from supporters urging him to run. Chavez: "I'm just going to give (Sen. Pete Domenici) this day, out of respect ... We'll talk tomorrow on it." Chavez "would not say whether he had been in discussions" with Richardson over the SEN race, adding, "We'll leave it to our esteemed governor to say."
LG Diane Denish (D) said 10/4 she had yet to speak with Richardson, but was contacted by the DSCC and a top staffer to Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D). She said she was leaning toward "(keeping) my feet planted on the ground in New Mexico," referring to her already announced plans for GOV'10. But she added that, "Out of respect for Sen. Bingaman and Sen. (Chuck) Schumer, I want to hear what they have to say." On Richardson, she said: "My sense is, the governor is very focused on the presidential race." Denish said she has more than $1M to use for a state race which she could not use for a SEN bid (Albuquerque Journal, 10/4).
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NM-SEN: Wilson (R) in, Udall (D) out. 23 Comments (0 topical, 23 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
That would be an interesting setup. I agree that Wilson is probably the strongest candidate. And NM is purple leaning blue. Wilson's house seat is going to be hard to defend. Iglesias would be quite an interesting candidate there.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
What makes her retirement more bearable is the possible entry of Bernalillo Co. Sheriff Darren White (R). He's been re-elected twice in a heavily Dem county, and his profile is shared by Brad Ellsworth (D) and Dave Reichert (R), two others who have been successful in bucking the trends in their CDs.
“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07
Darren White sounds like a very promising candidate. Can you give me any more info about him?
“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”
- John Bolton
He was reelected in 2006 as Sheriff. Here's his Q&A with the Albuquerque Tribune before the election. Gives at least a snippet - http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2006/oct/10/darren-white-i-republican/
He seems like he'll be able to run the sort of "above politics" campaign that it'll take to keep that seat Republican in this environment.
“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07
The only problem with this strategy is that if Iglesias has made anything known throughout his career thus far, is that he will not put politics over principle.
I still prefer Iglesias over Wilson for conservative and electability reasons, but in terms of a House run, I'm not sure if he could bring himself to endorsing Wilson's Senate run which could be problematic.
The other problem is that it was his friends in New Mexico, the party organization there, that stabbed him in the back. The same GOP Chairman who whined to Rove about Iglesias is still the GOP Chairman. There would be much to forgive and forget about for an Iglesias run for anything.
Please!.... David Iglesias...Mayor Chavez of ABQ would be more honorable candiate....You need to check out:
http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/search?q=heather+wilson
...Will that be vulnerable? Also, will she have too much baggage from the U.S. attorney's incident?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
First, yes her house seat will be vulnerable. It is a 51/48 Kerry seat and Wilson won in 2006 by 900 votes as an incumbent. It is not out of reach, but Rs will need a good challenger. The idea of Iglesias is a very interesting one.
Second, I am not on the ground so I can't really speak to how she will weather that. She has ties and support in NM-01, which will be helpful. But have any/many of those bridges been burned? I don't know.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
Republicans should nominate Wilson, she's the strongest Republican that can keep that Senate seat, and even if she loses her current House seat, it's worth it. I'll trade a Senate seat for a House seat any day.
New Mexico has made a sharp turn to the left, a huge flood of Hispanics and Hippies have descended there, and has gone from a reliable Red State, to a Purple state, to now what I would consider a Blue State. Even a stellar candidate like Wilson is going to have a fight on her hands.
Republicans need to hold on to every Senate seat they can this election cycle, and need to nominate candidates that can actually win elections, even if there may be other Republicans more conservative than Wilson.
I think it is important to note that NM is one of two states that went from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004 (IA is the other). That was mainly due to the strong Bush showing among Hispanics. I think that is unlikely to happen again since the anti-immigrant wing of the party has gotten so much press. But Wilson district is 49% white, 43% hispanic. She must have decent support in that community.
Tangentially, Pearce's (R) district (NM-02) is 44% white, 49% hispanic. And Udall's (D) district (NM-03) is 41% white, 36% hispanic.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
Actually, 'anti-unending mass immigration' is even more accurate.
Its one thing to be a conservative who is leftwing on immigration (even though high levels of immigration will of course make conservative policies harder to come by as time goes on), but that doesn't mean you have to use leftist language like 'anti-immigrant.'
There is an anti-illegal immigration wing and a subset of it that is anti-immigration. They want to reduce the level of immigration to minimal or zero levels among certain groups or all groups. They oppose immigration generally based on cultural grounds. And they have disproportionate time on the news to hurt the R brand.
And the idea that supporting legal immigration is "left wing" is sad. It is a pro-market view that allows people to work where they are most useful. It is a pro-family idea that allows for breadwinners to support their loved ones. It is a pro-personal responsibility message that allows people to take control of their lives and earn a good living through hard work.
And if conservatives focused on those aspects of immigration more, then increased immigration would NOT make conservative policies harder.
Instead anti-immigrant commentators have made sure that most Hispanic voters think that Republican means scared-of-too-many-Hispanics in the country.
If people really wanted to end illegal immigration, it would be easy to raise the limit of legal immigrants to 2 million a year. But the anti-immigrant wing of the party would never allow that.
The prominence of those Rs may hurt the R brand enough in NM to cost the party another Senate seat. Hopefully REP Wilson can overcome that hurdle.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
In your opinion is Steve Pearce too much of a long shot to be a viable candidate or do you just see Wilson as the better choice?
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
I have not done the amount of background research that I usually do for NM. Here is the important external information I have right now:
NM-01 (Wilson):
Bush/Kerry 48/51
Hispanic 43
NM-02 (Pearce):
Bush/Kerry 58/41
Hispanic 49
NM-03 (Udall):
Bush/Kerry 45/54
Hispanic 36
I think 2008 will be more like 2006 than 2004. Thus, I see NM as roughly a D +3 state (rather than a R +1). Wilson's strengths are that Domenici supports her, first female veteran in Congress, a Rhodes Scholar, a base in the swing district of the state, a female, and a record as an independent and moderate. Wilson's weaknesses are the Iglesias situation and a possibility of not exciting conservatives.
Pearce's strengths are a good showing in the most Hispanic district, Vietnam vet, and ability to excite conservatives. His weaknesses are mainly not having a base in the independent and moderate swing voter community.
With Richardson and Udall not running, Pearce could be a good nominee. Of course, the Lt. Gov. and the AG are still thinking about running and have statewide constituencies.
Wilson is a safer bet, but is a moderate. She would not be a Chafee or Specter, but could be a Collins or Snowe (quieter disagreements). On the other hand, she could be Hutchinson, Dole, or DeWine (moderate but solid voting record).
Overall, I think Wilson is the stronger nominee at this point. That could change and I would be open to any NMers with a local perspective. Much of my analysis rests on the fact that the R brand is in very bad shape and having someone with an independent (non-partisan) streak is a major plus in 2008, especially in a swing state.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
As always I value your opinion and insight in these matters. :0)
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
I think Wilson would be closer to KBH or Lisa Murkowski then either of the Maine Twins. Her ACU number of 80, which puts her solidly in the "pragmatic" conservative category.
Anyhow, I think she's probably the best candidate. Does anybody have any info about her statewide ID or approval numbers?
“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”
- John Bolton
I know she won a tough race in 2006, but wasn't Madrid a weak candidate? How do some of her potential candidates on the D side look? I wonder if Madrid will run for the Senate seat (or the potentially empty House seat).
Wilson ran in a Kerry 51 district (in R +1 year). In 2006, the country was D +5. Thus, generic D would be expected to get about 57% in 2006. Madrid instead lost to Wilson.
Madrid was the AG of the state, not a political novice like some 2006 challengers. She did flub a debate question really badly and Wilson turned it into a devastating ad. As the link notes, Wilson was trailing by 3-9 points before the ad. So it did probably help swing the election.
Madrid very well could run for either the SEN or the House seat. Madrid v. Wilson in the SEN race would be good for Wilson. Wilson already has won against Madrid in the swing district. And in reality, Wilson could lose NM-01 by 2-3 points and still win the state.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
I would go with a pure toss up, or even a Lean D seat, considering how the Republicans are still hurting nationally. Even a weak Dem, like Chavez or Madrid, would have the edge (however, that weak Dem might also make a mistake; that is why they are weak.) However, I think you are right that Wilson is a strong candidate. My own preferences are that Pearce not run, largely based on Wilson's stronger appeal in the general election, and the fact that we don't need a primary right now. (Sometimes primaries help, but usually not.) Besides, we don't want two House seats up in the air.
Should Giuliani be the nominee, it will be important to have someone on the ballot who will turn conservatives out. I'm not sure that Wilson can rally the base like some other potential candidates could.
would she be able to use her $1mm cash on hand for a contemporaneous re-election bid for LT Gov?
IF so, couldn't she use that money, in a round about way, to support her senate bid, but putting out LT Gov re-election ads showing her strengths (assuming there are any, I've no idea...)?
It would take some fancy footwork, but, to the more knowledgeable out there, is something like that possible?
Just curious.....
And while she can be frustrating at times, she's not terrible and is much better than a Democrat. She's a smart, tough campaigner and I think that she'll win this race.
David Iglesias should run for Heather Wilson's House seat.