No Way I'm Disco Dancing
Or, Taking A Dump Without A Plan
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | Fred Thompson — Comments (31) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Having squeaked to a third-place finish in South Carolina with 16% of the vote, Fred Thompson has failed to do even the bare minimum he needed on highly favorable turf to remain a viable presidential candidate, and will soon either drop out of the race or remain in mainly as a spokesman rather than a serious contender. The "Big Five" is now down to four, and shrinking, as Mike Huckabee's second-place finish has wounded him in what had been hoped to be his Southern stronghold, and Rudy Giuliani's own do-or-die moment in Florida - and the test of his unusual "hang back and let them bruise each other" strategy - rapidly approaches with the specter of John McCain, the guy whose appeal overlaps most with Rudy's, as his primary obstacle (although Rudy may draw a few supply-siders from the beaching of the Good Ship Fred, and is calibrating his attacks accordingly).
Fred will be remembered as the Mycroft Holmes of presidential candidates. You will recall that Sherlock Holmes said that his older brother Mycroft would have been the greatest detective who ever lived, if that could be accomplished without leaving his armchair. That's Fred in a nutshell - indeed, the high watermark of the Fred phenomenon was his hilarious video response to Michael Moore, delivered ... from an armchair.
Fred's diehard supporters will complain that the mainstream media done him wrong, but as I have explained before, there were any number of full-scale conservatives one might have tried to draft into the race (we had serious and experienced if not quite as across-the-board conservative contenders running already in Sam Brownback and Duncan Hunter); the reason people settled on Fred was precisely because his background as an actor and trial lawyer suggested a guy who, like Reagan, could work around and over the heads of the media. His failure to do so effectively was what doomed his campaign.
Read On...
Fred tried to (1) enter late and (2) run one of those "new kind of campaigns" that never work on the presidential level; even if one of the two was possible, the combination, added to the erratic quality of his public appearances on the trail (even many Fred supporters came away disappointed at some of his speeches and debate appearances) and the general lack of a well-run campaign organization (Fred turned out not to be able to learn to run an organization, having never done so before), was fatal. Fred refused to play by old rules he felt were demeaning, but he didn't come up with an effective substitute. It was said of Henry Clay that he would rather be right than president; at times it seemed that Fred would rather be cool than president.
And in the end, he didn't even maximize his ability to embrace the new. One of my fellow RedState contributors suggested some time back that Fred should combine his talk-radio experience and the power of YouTube to do a daily video "message of the day" that could reach web-connected voters nationally on a daily basis, at almost no cost. Such a video could be short (2-5 minutes), and run from a prepared script, yet be far more substantive than a 30-second TV spot, and would still be a great idea for any presidential contender, doubly so for one with Fred's talents; unlike the largely ignored campaign blogs, it would be visibly the work of the candidate himself. Yet after the initial and sometimes rambling off-the-cuff efforts at "Fred Answers" to voter questions, Fred basically disappeared from web video productions. So much for the new kind of campaign.
Anyway, we may not yet be done with Fred, as he would make a fine Vice Presidential nominee (although McCain is almost certainly the guy he is least suited to run with, as such a ticket would be too old, too Senatorial and too inside-the-Beltway). But like Mycroft Holmes, he will be best remembered as a walk-on part in somebody else's adventures.
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No Way I'm Disco Dancing 31 Comments (0 topical, 31 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
He needs to stay in if nothing more to force the other candidates to the right
I agree with those here that feel Fred should stay in the race awhile longer.McCain doesnt seem to have a national appeal at this time. Huckabee could well run out of steam after Florida and his supporters probably would swing to Fred.
This race right now is wide open and there are a number of scenario's that could play out to help Fred or to put him out of the race.
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making observations with concessions.
A concession implies that there is disagreement.
Where did I disagree?
Furthermore, the msm pumping up McCain is a separate issue.
Thanks in advance.
"I agree with those here that feel Fred should stay in the race awhile longer.McCain doesnt seem to have a national appeal at this time."
This is a good idea - if you want to help McCain and his amnesty plan. Fractured field will guarantee McCain victory. He does not even have to win among republicans. It is enough to win over independents and democrats.
BTW: McCain is leading in national republican polls.
Disco can be fun and profitable.
Seriously, great analysis of Fred's very flawed campaign.
the reference.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I'm not quite there when it comes to the idea of abandoning Fred (dreams of a brokered convention... I don't know). However, I find it imperative to stop McCain and Huckabee. That being said... If I were to jump ship - I would hold my nose and pull for Mitt. Even Rudy would be better than McHuckabee.
I said it before and I'll say it again. I'll stay home and not vote if McCain or Huckabee get the nomination. It would probably be better if the Democrat won if that becomes the case. If you're going to screw things up - better that the Democrat gets the blame for it. Last but not least, another disaster like Carter might be just what the doctor orders to wake this country up.
Thompson as the "principled conservative" on a McCain ticket would be a walking contradiction. Although...Fred has expressed regret over his support of McCainFeingold, so maybe it's not inconceiveable that he would excuse all the hostility McCain has wrought on conservatism and federalism. I guess we'll see if he really is the issue candidate or just another Washington insider looking out for his friend.
The 2nd link in the 1st sentence goes to 'Page not found':
"Fred Thompson has failed to do even the bare minimum he needed on highly favorable turf to remain a viable presidential candidate, and will"
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I think Fred should withdraw, because he's splitting the conservative vote that should be going to Romney. If Fred stays in he helps McCain win. If McCain wins I'm not voting in November.
My refusal to vote for McCain doesn't matter because I'm from Georgia and Georgia always votes Republican, but there's still the possibility that Georgia could become a swing state, and if Hillary were to win due to my single nonvote, then so be it. I will not support McCain, period. I could vote for Huckabee (he's my 3rd choice), and Giuliani (my 2nd choice), but I will not vote for McCain.
for the votes of conservatives.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
kicking and screaming, then realized what we got and dumped him. The thing he was always missing was the desire to win the presidency.
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Molon Labe!
Let me know when you guys are ready to move on.
Fred should indorse no one right now. There are four guys still in this thing
There can be only one*…
And Fred would make a good addition to the tickets of three out of the four…
Rudy… Thompson would bring along those that supported Huckabee, adding conservative heft to the ticket, as well as geographic balance. Fred would help those in the party that really wouldn’t be happy with Rudy. And add a southern face to the ticket
Romney… Thompson would bring along those that supported Huckabee, adding TRUE conservative heft to the ticket, as well as geographic balance. Same as with Rudy, Fred would help those in the party that really wouldn’t be happy with Mitt. And add a southern face to the ticket
McCain… Thompson would bring along those that supported Huckabee, adding TRUE conservative heft to the ticket, as well as geographic balance. Same as with Rudy, and Romney, Fred would help those in the party that really wouldn’t be happy with , and don’t trust McCain. And add a southern face to the ticket… PLUS it is ‘said’ that Fred and John are friends and that McCain trusts him, no small matter with McCain who generally doesn’t like most folks, and Republicans tend to top his list… AND those that are running against him will be right at the top.
(Huckabee would be a train wreak so, I’m not so sure who he’d pick, or if anyone of any ‘weight’ would run with him)
What all three of the others will need, is a solid conservative and a southerner. One that Rush, and Laura, and Sean won’t attack. One that doesn’t come off as a nut, one that didn’t run on ego, and one that they can feel they can ‘trust’
Fred is all that and more.
*My pop culture reference
McCain does well with independents and democrats voting in R primaries. He doesnt do well with republican voters. After SC I dont think other states will allow non-republicans to vote in the primaries. If thats the case we shall see how McCain does.
I wouldn't mind it if we did block Is and Ds from voting in our primaries, but doesn't that kind of rule change/law (I don't know what it would have to be) take time to make/enact/whatever? Or are you talking about future election and not these primaries?
"Hey, I call 'em like I see 'em. I'm a whale biologist."
Wrong McCain will win like he did last time in coming Arizona primary and I bet he wins in a lot New England states.
I’m not here to argue and I won’t bring up my terrible history of predicting election results but I will give you my “blind faith” prediction of how things will look five weeks from now.
Huckabee will be forgotten history. The collapse is already beginning and his supporters will scatter to the winds. The McCain implosion will have already occurred or be in the process of occurring. Punditland will be crawling all over itself to tell us how this will all shake out. If Mr. Thompson has not withdrawn by this point he will soon be recognized nationally as a solid third place contender (behind a very close Romney vs Giuliani race) with huge upside potential as the McCain dust continues to settle and more and more Americans start to actually focus on the candidates.
These first three weeks of January have been nothing but hype material for cable news channels – nothing you’ve seen to-date really matters in the long run (sorry Iowa). This primary/caucus schedule is ridiculous and the perpetual “quick counts” coming from all corners of the cable news-blogosphere are just as bad. This is a marathon and a large, wide open field at this point in the campaign is good for the party and the country. Let the race unfold in its own due time.
Hang in there Mr. Thompson.
Ntrepid
Proud Member for 3 Years and 17 Weeks
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"Everybody has an agenda. Except for me." - Michael Crichton, State of Fear.
Fred tried to (1) enter late and (2) run one of those "new kind of campaigns" that never work on the presidential level
Newt Gingrich, you made the right choice.
No one of good character leaves behind a wasted life - John McCain
And I'm not just saying this because I'm a Huckabee supporter--it's painfully obvious to anyone who is paying attention.
First of of all, in the New Hampshire debate, Fred Thompson spent half of the night attacking Mitt Romney on everything-- including his health care plan and his position on immigration. I remembered thinking that it was weird at the time, because Fred was literally polling at 1% in New Hampshire and Romney wasn't really competing in South Carolina. Furthermore, at that point, John McCain was the front-runner in NH, not Romney--Romney was in second place. Question--So if Fred was trying to improve his standing in NH or win SC, why didn't he go after McCain?
Answer--Because he'd given up on winning the race and he was trying to help out McCain.
Next, Fred Thompson spent the entire SC debate attacking Mike Huckabee, when John McCain was actually polling around ten to twelve points ahead of Huckabee at that time. Fred has spent the last two weeks traveling around SC attacking Huckabee. Now, although the polls showed Huckabee closing the gap on McCain, most polls still showed McCain around two to five points ahead of Huckabee. Fred even insinuated that Huck was behind those horrible push polls attacking McCain when everyone knew that Huck had nothing to do with them. Question--Why on earth would Thompson waste so much time attacking Huckabee in SC, when McCain was clearly the front-runner? Answer--Because Thompson and McCain are friends, and so Thompson was clearly trying to help McCain out. Here is a Time magazine article, quoting Huckabee's supporters, regarding Thompson's role as a McCain surrogate in SC.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1705449,00.html
Face it guys, Thompson gave up on winning this race, for himself, after he came in third in Iowa and started tanking in the national polls. It's starting to look like he's staying in the race so that he can help out his buddy McCain. Everyone knows that if Thompson wasn't in the race yesterday, then Huckabee would have won SC and Romney probably would have made a strong third place showing. Not to mention, Rudy's national poll numbers would probably be higher.
Most people on this website, who support Fred, say that Romney would be their second choice. And, Fred took a lot of Evangelical supporters away from Huck yesterday--enough to deny him the extra 4% that he needed to win. However, I seriously doubt that many people who voted for Fred yesterday, in SC, would have put McCain as their second choice.
Now, although I would have rather seen Huck win in SC, it doesn't really bother me that McCain won instead--in fact, McCain is my second choice. However, I don't think that McCain is the second choice among most Fred supporters. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that McCain is the last, or second to last, choice among a lot of Fred supporters.
So in conclusion, if Fred wants to honorably pull out of the race and endorse John McCain (like Sam Brownback did), then that would be fine. However, I think that it's way uncool of him to stay in the race--using other people's campaign contributions--in order to serve as McCain's attack dog. People are giving Fred money because they think that HE has a fighting chance to become the Republican nominee. They are not giving Fred money, and volunteering for him, in order to help elect John McCain.
On a side note, I know that if I found out that Huckabee was just staying in the race so that he could be an attack dog for Rudy Giuliani (someone that I would never vote for), then I would be really upset that he was using my campaign contributions in such a manner. It's starting to look like it's time for Fred to bow out gracefully. Just my opinion, though. Y'all have a good night.
Ignore Thompson
Pump up McCain.
Fredhead for Mitt.
Go Mitt!