North Carolina Republican Choices
GOV, LTG, and Judges
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As a current resident of North Carolina I will have the chance to vote in tomorrow's primary. While I am looking forward to finally casting a ballot for Sen. John McCain for President, that is not one of the competitive races.
Republicans face a choice for Governor among 4 good candidates:
Pat McCrory, Mayor of Charlotte
Fred Smith, State Senator
Bob Orr, Former State Supreme Court Justice
Bill Graham, Businessman
For Lieutenant Governor, there is another 4 way race:
Greg Dority, Businessman
Robert Pittenger, State Senator
Timothy Cook, Businessman
Jim Snyder, Former State Rep, 2004 LTG nominee
See below for a discussion of these races:
Governor*:
Early on, the race was a 4-way race. But in recent weeks, the race seems to have narrowed to a two-way McCrory vs. Smith race based mainly on geography. The most recent poll (released today) shows McCrory ahead 39-35. Smith leads in early voters. It's expected the Smith has more passionate support but McCrory has wider support and a big base in the Charlotte area.
Polling generally shows that McCrory is competitive against the favored Democrat possibilities (Lt. Gov. Purdue and State Treasurer Moore). McCrory benefits from a long history in Charlotte and a more moderate reputation.
Charlotte is one of the largest cities with a Republican mayor and has been very successful under McCrory's leadership. His ads and campaign are focused on illegal immigration, crime and an outsider image of leadership since he isn't from the Raleigh area or state government.
Smith is a state senator who has more support from the conservative activists in the state. He served in the JAG Corps after law school and founded a business. He has served in the state senate since 2002 and is a sponsor of a state marriage amendment.
Lieutenant Governor:
I honestly don't know as much about these candidates. Pettinger has run ads in the triangle area casting himself as the conservative choice. I haven't heard anything about the other 3. If this recent poll is accurate, Pettinger is a prohibitive favorite with 40%.
Judges:
Judges are technically non-partisan but the parties functionally nominate candidates. If you are a NC GOP voter and want to support GOP judges in the non-partisan jungle primary, they are:
Court of Appeals (Tyson seat): Tyson
Court of Appeals (Wynn seat): Poirer or Farlow
*Full Disclosure, I have informally (and rarely) advised the Orr campaign on blogs and internet outreach. Justice Orr's blog is a great example of a substantive campaign blog.
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North Carolina Republican Choices 25 Comments (0 topical, 25 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I would probably support Orr normally but because a) he's not really in the running now and b) the top two are close enough it could matter, I'm thinking of switching over. I'll support McCrory over Smith in part because 16 years of Democrat governors is long enough.
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I am lawyer in North Carolina, and I have had the pleasure of meeting Orr on a couple of occasions. I have also read a number of his opinions.
My general take on the man is that he is extremely intelligent (quite a cut above most other state appeals court judges), extremely hard working, possessed of great integrity and totally lacking in charm and charisma in front of crowds. He would make an incredible federal court judge. I was a little perplexed he decided to run for Governor, it just did not seem to be the right fit for him.
NC
I agree on all counts. And I would like to believe that those skills would make a good governor. But he didn't have the funds to compete and it seems those qualities aren't enough in a close race against established politicians. I may end up voting for him b/c I want to reward hard working, extremely intelligent, high integrity people who run for office.
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I think Orr has some of the skills necessary to be a good Governor, but for better or worse, a big part of being a successful leader and politician is your ability to sell your vision. I am not sure Orr is a good salesman.
There have been a lot of extremely intelligent politicians who were mediocre at the actual game of governing (e.g, Madison, John Adams, JQ Adams, Hoover, and, don't laugh, Jimmy Carter*). For what its worth, it seems to me that what unites that list of folks is that they were so much brighter than those around them, that they did not know how to persuade or convince those who were not on their level of intelligence.
* Hey, the guy graduated in the top 10% of his class at Annapolis with a degree in physics. He was no slouch at book learning. Common sense--well, not so much.
NC
Pittenger, another local Charlotte politician, is somewhat of a mystery to me. He apparently managed to pick a fight with our local Republican Congresswoman, Sue Myrick, and he has earned a number of enemies in local Republican circles. I don't know the man personally, so I can't really judge why he has earned the enemies he has, but he does seem to give off a general creepy vibe (I know thats not much of an analysis and its probably grossly unfair, but I suspect other voters have similar reactions).
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According to his radio ads he is running a traditional conservative anti-establishment campaign.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
If what you are seeing is correct, then McCrory's better chances against the D should be a good push for him.
Now also found at The Minority Report
thoughts later this evening.
good work as usual AC
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
I plead with NC voters to vote for McCrory the implications are huge. The GOP has a real opportunity to win a Governors race after decades of not being in power and with the all important census coming up and the fact NC is slated to gain a congressional seat and the state leg in Dem hands it will allow the GOP to have a part in protecting the state GOP delegation and possibly gaining a seat.
Vote McRory he is only GOP who can win in Nov
Charlotte and in NC, unlike SC, the dem party rural senate dominates the state. Charlotte gets the shaft. That needs to change.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
Can you fill me in on why NC always has a Dem Governor? I mean, I know it's not a hard R state in any sense, but it seems while Republicans do pretty well in Senate races, but occasionally lose, same for House, etc. It seems we pretty much NEVER win the Governor's mansion. We've had it once in the past 50 years or something I think...any idea why?
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
For better or worse, the state wide party is anemic in NC and seems to be more interested in being right than winning (and actually I am probably giving the state party more credit than it is due). The Republicans nearly took the state house a few years back, and the the Republican Reps. could not agree on a Speaker candidate, so one of the State Republican Reps, Mike Decker, decided to sell his vote (rather cheaply at it turns out) to the Dem. candidate for speaker, Jim Black. Both of them were subsequently convicted of various corruption related offenses. Unfortunately, our local party has not been able to capitalize on this gift.
The last Republican governor was Jim Martin. He was elected back in the '80s. He as a very good governor in my opinion.
Jim Hunt, a Democrat who had been gov back in the '70s came back into office in the Clinton years, and there really was no one of his stature in the Republican party who could take him on.
The current gov., Mike Easley, a Democrat, is not a good politician, not well-liked within his own party and calling him a cipher would be an insult to ciphers everywhere. That having been said, his Republican opponents were even less worthy contenders than him.
McCrory is the best chance the Republicans have had in long time to pull out a win. Of course, never underestimate the ability of NC Republicans to throw that chance down the toilet. Even if McCrory does win the nomination, beating Bev Perdue or Richard Moore (the potential Dem nominees) is going to be a challenge this election cycle.
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The NC Democrats tend to be more centrist-"conservative", especially in relation to the national party. They have been successful in electing Attorney Generals (which Easley once was) and Lt. Governors, which gives them a leg up when it comes time to run a statewide campaign. We Republicans haven't really put up a good candidate in a while, either. I mean, come on, was Patrick Ballentine the best we had to try to take down Easley in 04?
I voted for Fred Smith, but there were several good options this year and I would be happy with pretty much any of the gentlemen running. One way or the other, it is going to be an uphill battle against Purdue or Moore, especially since they have both already won statewide. But I bet with 16 straight years of Democratic governors, there might be a feeling the Republicans need a chance to govern.
I actually liked Ballantine and I even campaigned for him, but I basically agree with you that he did not have a realistic chance of beating Easley. He probably ought to have tried for Lt. Governor or waited for an opportunity to run for a Congressional seat.
And in answer to your question, yes, unfortunately he was the best we had, which says a lot about the lack of bench strength in the party.
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Yeah, I liked Ballentine all right, but he needed a bit more "seasoning" as it were. I understand completely what you are saying about bench strength. I live in Randolph County, which is a pretty doggone red county, and I attended the GOP county convention for the first time this year. With one exception, I was the youngest person there by a good 25 years. The other person younger than me was a former student of mine who is positioning himself to be a factor in local GOP politics for a while.
We desperately need young conservatives to run for city/county commissioner and state House positions or else we are going to continue this pattern of electing "conservative" Democrats in a red state.
For the same reasons that Vermont has a Republican governor.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=governor-VT
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
However, NC is not slated to gain a seat this cycle. I just reran the estimations using 2007 data and NC is close but not even in the on deck circle (about 5 states ahead of them). The grown in NC would have to be faster than the past 7 years to get another seat.
Regardless, populations have shifted so lines must be redrawn.
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Fred Smith is the conservative choice for Governor of North Carolina. It always shocks me when people think we need to pretend to be Democrats to get elected. If I thought it was worth electing McCrory because he behaves enough like a Democrat to get elected, why not offer the nomination to Beverly Perdue. She even acts like more of a Dem.
and Smith will not get elected.
I am not trying to be offensive, and I'm sure you have good reasons for wanting Smith, but I simply fail to see how a State Senator of little to no name recognition is going to be able to beat either Richard Moore (the State Treasurer) or Bev Perdue (the Lt. Governor). McCrory is extremely articulate and intelligent, he has governed Charlotte reasonably well for the past 10 years (one of the most dynamic, growing Sun belt cities in the country). As a Mayor he has been a very solid moderate conservative.
Again, no offense intended, but the position you are putting forth is why the Republicans are having trouble broadening the base and winning elections. We are too interested in talking to ourselves and we are not interested enough in convincing others.
The phrase "Reagan Democrats" had real meaning back in 1980. Ronald Reagan made sure his message was a message that was communicated to, and resonated with, many blue collar Democratic voters.
Lets not make the perfect the enemy of the good.
NC
It was my pleasure to hear Mr. Snyder speak at the 4th district convention. He certainly said the right things. But, I had been thinking of voting for Mr. Pittinger. Cannot imagine why he would pick a fight with Sue Myrick though. Anyone know more about that?
This Morgan guy is NOT a friend of the GOP in NC.
SurveyUSA shows McCrory clinging to a slight lead.
In a Republican Primary for Governor of North Carolina with 24-hours until votes are counted, Pat McCrory and Fred Smith run far ahead of other challengers, with McCrory ever-so-slightly likely to prevail when votes are counted.
Charlotte Mayor McCrory ends at 38%, State Senator Smith at 32%. 12% are undecided. Republican turnout will be low and difficult to forecast, since the presidential contest is non-contested. A surprising outcome is possible. If Charlotte area voters turn out in large numbers, that bodes well for McCrory, who leads by more than 2:1 in that part of the state.
If voters in southern and coastal NC turn out heavy, that bodes well for Smith, who leads by 14 points in that part of the state. The two candidates are effectively even in the Research Triangle. Among Conservatives, the two are tied. Among Moderates, McCrory finishes ahead by 19. Among the 13% who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, the two are effectively tied. If McCrory is to win, he will have to do it on the backs of those who vote at the precinct.
Thanks for the summary. As a Charlotte resident, I have somewhat mixed feelings about McCrory. I generally think he is intelligent, dynamic and possesses a level of charisma that could take him far in politics if he gets the right breaks. That having been said, I have been slightly disappointed with his support for public funding of our local NBA arena. But, to your point on another post that the Republican party needs to have a big tent, I think McCrory has the best chance to appeal to a wide base of voters in North Carolina. In other words, he is probably the best we can get right now. Smith is a sure bet to get beat in the general election, absent a major scandal involving the potential Democratic nominees Bev Perdue or Richard Moore.
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