Redstate

By Erick Posted in 2008 | Georgia — Comments (22) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The Obama campaign surprised a lot of people in the past week by suggesting that Georgia was in play. In fact, the Obama campaign has begun running advertisements in Georgia this week -- launching Obama's opening ad campaign.

This has more to do with Obama trying to shape the press message than it does Obama actually trying to win in Georgia. Witness this Time article. After weeks of stories about Obama not being able to win in places like Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio, the Obama campaign is working overtime to convince the media that it can win in places it absolutely cannot. Georgia is one of those places.

"By some estimates we have about 600,000 African Americans in Georgia are eligible but unregistered. I think that number is a little high, but we will be working very hard to register as many voters as we can before the election," said Jane Kidd, chairwoman of the Georgia Democratic Party. "Georgia is one of the most progressive southern states. There are a lot of people moving in, there's a lot of transition, a lot of progressives."

This is, of course the strategy. Obama will win with the votes of black voters. And arguably his data makes the case. In 2004, only 626,838 voters turned out for the Democratic Primary. This year, however, 1,028,495 voters turned out for the Democratic Primary.

That sounds impressive until you realize 947,423 voters turned out in the Republican Primary this year, smaller to be sure, but then everyone knew Huckabee would win Georgia by the time the race got here and Obama could capitalize on the African-American turnout.

Regardless of the impressive primary turnout, let's put some concrete perspective on this.

In Georgia, Obama is calculating that he will have inroads because of Bob Barr, the Libertarian Presidential candidate who is from Georgia and the African-American vote strength.

In 2006, the Libertarians ran Garrett Hayes for Governor in Georgia. Hayes ran a good, but underfunded campaign. A lot of his supporters believed he would have such an impact on the race that Sonny Perdue and Mark Taylor would be forced into a runoff. The Democrats thought the same thing. In fact, Perdue captured 58% of the vote with Hayes only getting 4%.

People forget that Barr lost his district in 2002 and has not held elective office since. Likewise, Barr has drifted from his conservative roots over time. Just because he was once a Georgia congressman does not mean he'll get enough support to hurt McCain.

Additionally, there is the Democratic Party in Georgia (DPG) itself. If you really think Barack Obama has a strong shot in Georgia, surely that is reflected in the DPG's candidate recruitment efforts this year. If Barack Obama is going to sweep across Georgia, surely his coattails will help candidates at the local level. Actually, the DPG has had a terrible candidate recruitment effort this year. Several vulnerable Republicans have gotten a free pass.

Then there is fundraising. The Republicans in Georgia have, since 2000, organized and fundraised the Democrats under the table. The Georgia GOP is well funded and has impressive organizations across the state. Meanwhile, the Democrats are in near rebellion against Jane Kidd, the DPG leader and former State Representative who was unable to get herself re-elected. She has done a craptacular job at fundraising, organizing, and recruiting.

Of course we should not rule out Obama's ability to make Georgia competitive. He will see huge African-American turn out across the south. That does not shake loose history. Georgia went for Bill Clinton in 1992, but Clinton was a Southern Governor. He had cross party appeal and cross racial appeal. Obama, by and large, has neither and the more he runs a campaign centered around the black vote, the less likely he is to grow his base of support in Georgia.

The African-American population in Georgia has increased in the past year or so to close to 30% of the population. That usually does make the state more competitive. But the GOP has solidified itself across the state, turning it once solidly Democratic to solidly Republican. Major suburban metro-Atlanta counties are Republican. Three of the other major metropolitan areas have large military installations that are a hotbed of Republican activity. Senator Saxby Chambliss, a very popular Republican in Georgia, is on the ballot.

Obama's campaign can take some comfort in the latest Insider Advantage polling that shows the state close, but I know of few politicos in Georgia on either side of the aisle who treat IA with a great deal of credibility. Just ask Lieutenant Governor Ralph Reed.

The speculation on Georgia has more to do with changing the media narrative than it does with victory. Obama will not win Pennsylvania. There are other states that will become competitive for John McCain that would not be competitive for a different Republican. But Georgia will stay red, as will the rest of the south. Obama just has a money advantage right now to build hype and buzz.

One of my favorite recent anecdotes is the urban white liberal who put a McCain bumper sticker over the Bill Bradley sticker on his range rover. Obama's politics, positions, and lack of experience do not sell well in Georgia except in areas of large African-American or liberal university professor vote concentrations. And you cannot win Georgia on those demographics.