Obama v. McCain on the Economy. Advantage McCain
McCain wins on the economy, on Iraq, and on identity
By Soren Dayton Posted in 2008 — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Last night, for all effects, Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. I am undecided on whether this is good or bad news. But some things are clear.
It is increasingly clear that the economy is going to be the dominant issue. In exit polls from yesterday, the dominant issue was the economy:
As it has been throughout the Democratic primaries, the economy was the most important issue in both states with 67 percent of voters in Indiana describing it as such and 61 percent in North Carolina.
As I have noted earlier, the American people trust John McCain more than Barack Obama on the economy.
This basic fact is exacerbated by all the other issues such as race, class, identity and the other polarizing issues in this primary.
Read on.
Start with the fact that John McCain is more trusted than Barack Obama on the economy (and, incidentally, Iraq). Then note that, for Democrats, the economy is the overwhelming issue. Then note that Barack Obama has trouble connecting with working class voters who have been and are even more likely to be the swing vote in the next election.
It appeared that Obama's margins in both Indiana and North Carolina were due to race. He has increased turnout, but he has not fundamentally improved his appeal among working class voters.
So let's replay that. He was not providing satisfactory answers to a fundamental part of the Democratic base on the economy, their biggest issue. He already has trouble connecting to those people.
It is not an accident that half of Clinton supporters say that they won't support Obama. They are just like the rest of America. They don't trust him on the economy.
The Democrats are going to scream racism for the next 6 months. But this isn't about racism. This is about their guy not offering answers that real Americans trust on the most important issue. never mind "elitism", "arugula", "clinging to guns and religion", Iraq, security, or any of the other issues.
The Democratic Party is coming out of the primary in a terrible, terrible place that is a lot more profound than race. Their own people don't think that their guy offers answers on the most important question of the day. And the rest of the country agrees with them.
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Obama v. McCain on the Economy. Advantage McCain 15 Comments (0 topical, 15 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
What McCain can do now is to express his appreciation and admiration of Hillary as a strong woman under pressure. He could lash out at press' generally negative coverage of Hillary which will strick a chord with her diehard supporters. McCain can win this thing in November, but he has to deepen the wedge between the snob and many Hillary supporters who simply do not trust Obama and feel deeply hurt by his campaign tactics.
Go to some sites I've been following,
you'll see the real anger of Hillary's diehard supporters. The exit polls are real, and many of her supporters are really really ready to jump to McCain if he gives them a reason.
http://www.hillaryis44.org/
www.taylormarsh.com
Many of the attack tactics to be launched by Obama and MSM against McCain in general election will not go very well among the overall electorate. The reason is simple. Many of those non-Obama voters already felt the media was ridiculously lopsided with Obama in primary fight.
It appeared that Obama's margins in both Indiana and North Carolina were due to race. He has increased turnout, but he has not fundamentally improved his appeal among working class voters.
Actually, Obama has been improving with White working class voters since Ohio. See here and here. This, despite "bitter" comments, Wright, Ayers and such.
Obama will never win the majority of that vote -- who was the last Democrat that did? -- but the question is, can he still win enough of it to be dangerous?
I disagree with the 'improvement' argument. Remember, each state is slightly different. You can't argument a few points up or down in the very unreliable exit polls of a sub-group as evidence of 'improvement'.
IN was supposed to go to Obama only three weeks ago. It's a neighbouring state of IL. So yes, Clinton might not have drawn as an overwhemlingly white women as in PA/OH. But you can't use PA/OH as a reference point. A more probable reference point is perhaps Wisconsin, which is also a neighbouring state of IL. Clinton lost that state by a whopping 17%(??), and she barely squeaked out a win among white women. Obama used to win decisively among white men in early contests, the movement in recent weeks among whites is frankly quite big.
There's no doubt Obama has suffered a body blow as he's continuing to polarize the electorate among racial line. As a white, hispanic, asian, it's simply natural to feel very very uncomfortable when one candidate draws 90% from one group constantly because of his skin color.
Yes, every state is different. It is precisely when you factor in these differences that you realize that Obama has been getting better and better these last few weeks. Obama's "bitter comments," Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, even his wife's comments have hurt Obama -- taken away his halo, if you will -- but if you look at the trending since they became major issues, their negative effects on him are diminishing.
Do I think Obama will ever be able to completely undo them? Absolutely NOT!
But can he overcome them at least to the extent that he could win the Presidency? Unfortunately, YES!
Furthermore, we are seriously deluding ourselves if we think otherwise. Again, look at the links I reference.
Now we know Obama is our opponent. It is time for McCain to reach out to all Hillary supporters (white working class men, women,etc...)
Tom Cole has sounded the warning horn in Congress. Let's hope they heed his words. (See Martin's Redhot is you haven't heard about it.)
Enough bickering and telling folks we suck less. Like simpson said in his diary, this is our call to arms.
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...
If they do, they will only be alienating a large swath of this country....that will be voting a secret ballot. Are the Dems that dumb? Probably.
1. 1 million new Democrats registered this year
2. Despite the horrible month Obama has had, he still polls even or slightly ahead of McCain. McCain is likely at or near his ceiling of support, while Obama will gain support after Hillary drops out officially.
3. Obama has raised probably 100 million more than McCain.
4. Generic ballots favor Dems by double-digits. McCain has good fav/unfavs and he polls well against Obama in general, but a big deficit in the generic ballot will be a drag on the campaign.
5. The media will be giving Obama a tongue-bath for the next six months. Get ready for "Obama can do no wrong", and McCain is a "warmonger" and an "out-of-touch old 'white guy'".
Adam C is succeeding in his work. I have become a bit more pessimistic.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
1. http://www.filibustercartoons.com/archive.php?id=20041027
2. Only state polls matter, not national polls, in a Presidential election. McCain is doing just fine in that regard. And Obama has one of the most pronounced Wilder effects going of all time. And let us not forgot, there's only one poll that matters: the one held in a private booth on election day.
3. If money mattered in this election, Romney or Ron Paul would be the Republican nominee right now. Hillary would've won Iowa going away and Obama never would've got INTO Iowa in the first place. Considering the ever-growing use of the internet, YouTube, and all the rest, traditional paid media is going to be the least relevant its' ever been prior.
4. Yawn. Republicans trailed on the generic ballot in '04. They did just fine that year.
5. Sure, but that occurs in every election and is just something you deal with, not worry about. If President Bush could handle it, I don't see why Senator McCain can't either.
When the DNC ads quoting McCain claiming to not be very strong on the economy start flying.
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/jjfuller72/2008/jan/05/its_the_economy_stu...
we live in an age when our politics is less substantive than it is stylistic and driven by 30 second sounds bites.
Although the ability to self assess one's weaknesses is a strength, those words will hurt McCain in NOV.
...other than how to wreck it with tax increases and regulations.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
to publically state that he sees foreign policy as his strength.
Ha!
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Just a typical, small town, white girl...
This is what we must hammer home. Obama's policies at best would be a drag on the economy. We must remind the electorate why they trust McCain and why they distrust the elitism of Obama.
Now also found at The Minority Report