Obama's Refusal to Denounce Rev. Wright Hurts His Electability
Even the left notices the numbers
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
No big surprise that Sen. Obama's refusal to explain why he put his family in front of such vile rhetoric and linked himself to such a divisive church has hurt him in the polls. Even Kos is acknowledging that the revelation that Sen. Obama has spent two decades associating himself with a "spiritual mentor" who hates America and white people is not the best way to win friends and influence people.
Specifically, the RCP Average now shows Clinton as more competitive against McCain than Obama (although McCain leads both within the MoE). As Kos notes, SurveyUSA has new polls from swing states MO and OH showing a big drop for Obama:
OH: 3/14-16. RV. MoE 4.3% (2/26-28 results)
McCain 50 (44)
Obama 43 (47)
McCain 44 (42)
Clinton 50 (52)
MO: 3/14-16. RV. MoE 4.3% (2/26-28 results)
McCain 53 (43)
Obama 39 (49)
McCain 48 (44)
Clinton 46 (51)
KY: 3/14-16. RV. MoE 4.3% (2/3-4 results)
McCain 64 (61)
Obama 28 (32)
McCain 53 (53)
Clinton 43 (43)
That's a swing in the Obama-McCain matchup in OH of 10 points, in MO of 20 points, and in KY of 7 points. Clinton lost 4 points in OH, lost 9 in MO, and didn't move in KY showing that this is not just a different (pro-R) sample but rather a shift in voter's views of Obama.
Read On...
[UPDATE] - Note that some numbers were wrong in the original post and have been fixed.
Although some commentators are being distracted by a generally good speech by Sen. Obama on race yesterday, pundits shouldn't lose sight of the real problem for Obama here. Sen. Obama ran as someone who can "transcend" race and take the country into the future of race relations. For most Americans that means moving toward a more colorblind future where people are judged as individuals, not by the color of their skin.
And for most Americans, the next phase of race relations is one where people with Rev. Wright's views are considered as vile as the KKK. Racial anger and hatred against any group is to be shunned. Thus, Sen. Obama's choice to associate with, learn from, and defend Rev. Wright is a very risky decision. Sen. Obama's decision to take his children to a church where racial hatred is part of the sermon will make many independents and moderates uncomfortable. And it may be a big chink in Obama's message of unity and reconciliation.
Sen. Obama still has not answered the important and hard questions. Why did he choose to go to a church where a race baiter was in charge? Why did he not leave when he learned of these noxious views? Why should we trust him to heal the nation's racial wounds when he won't stand up against the remnants of black racism? How can we trust someone who would put his children in front of this man and call him a "spiritual mentor?"
Obama avoided these questions in his speech. Will the media buy the head fake, or will they continue asking the hard questions? Will they become an SNL skit and give Obama a pass they would never give if a Republican (or Democrat) choose to be part of a church where the pastor peddled racial anger against blacks?
Regardless, Obama's image has been hit and the "Mr. Perfect" feeling is gone. We are about to learn how much of Obama's appeal was from being "perfect" and how much was due to his views and experience.
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Obama's Refusal to Denounce Rev. Wright Hurts His Electability 24 Comments (0 topical, 24 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
We have not had direct polling there but if Hillary has a 15 point lead on Obama in how they match up with McCain, it stands to reason that that's a proxy for her having a big edge over Obama in the KY primary. Which suggests that he's really going to limp to the finish - besides NC, where he is slipping in the polls, it's hard to see where he wins again besides Oregon on May 20 and maybe some of the mountain states on June 3.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Looking at the internals is crazy.
McCain-Obama
Rs (43%): 88-8
Ds (45%): 48-41
Is (9%): 33-53
Whites: 67-24
Conservatives: 81-12
Moderates: 57-37
Liberal: 48-41
That's unifying.
McCain-Clinton
Rs: 74-23
Ds: 34-60
Is: 37-59
Whites: 54-42
Blacks: 34-60
Conservatives: 80-16
Moderates: 44-53
Liberal: 16-79
That's right, McCain wins 34% of Ds against Clinton and 48% of Ds against Obama (and 34% of blacks against Clinton). Those numbers won't hold up, but it's a great place for McCain to start.
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McCain loses 23% of REPUBLICANS??? to Hillary- am I reading that right?
McCain also loses 37%-59% Independents to Hillary
I know there is a long way to go, but I thought part of McCain's whole deal was that Independents loved him- and these aren't say MA indpendents, they are KY independents.
Maybe I am just caught up in my own CDS, and I know Iraq and the economy are very problematic issues for the R's rightnow, but it kills me to see Hillary beating McCain in these polls.
The Ohio one makes me want to throw up as well.
It would be normal to drop about 8% self-described Rs to a D in most elections. It isn't the actual size but the next difference. In 2000 and 2004 the swing of an R voting for Gore/Kerry and a D voting for Bush was much closer to even.
That additional 15% probably consists of women voting for the woman, and then the 15% that would rather elect a Dem than be disappointed with another RINO in hopes that the electorate will learns its lesson and elect a strong conservative to come clean up the mess next in 2012. I have flirted with that idea too after Fred left, but I am hoping for a good VP pick like Michael Steele.
M Penny
For many reasons. One is KY-01 as Adam says. Another is Mitch McConnell. He would have won anyway, but let's not have to spend valuable and limited Senate funds on that one. If it's Obama-McCain that race will be off the table.
Finally, Kentucky is demographically and regionally similar to the other "border" states of Tenn, KY and perhaps most of Virginia and possibly Arkansas. Those are all states where Obama was supposed to be able to turn red into purple...
This suggests he won't...
It seems to me that if Obama wants to bridge the racial divide he spoke about, the first place to start would be his own church and his own friends and associates. If he cannot even do this among his own friends and mentors, then how in the world can he do it for the whole country? I believe he will in fact make things worse when it comes to race, because of HIS choices and judgments in the company that he keeps. The truth is his campaign is over when it comes to the general election. Just think, all or even most voters probably have not seen or heard about his friends like Wright yet.
I can see Kos sitting by himself in a room, in front of a laptop, silent - then saying quietly: "I immediately regret this decision."
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
The numbers for McCain are actually better than what was posted on Kos. Whoever copied from Kos repeated the mistake of the Kos blogger.
This is the link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=8d367ce2-f928-4f6...
and I'm changing the LV to RV. Thanks for the pointers.
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Obama has taken a hit, no doubt, but surveys of registered voters always seem to favor Democrats and the ones with likely voters are generally much, much better indicators of who will vote.
Because in their actual mindset someone criticizing Obama is probably being 1) blatant racist 2) vaguely racist 3) a Clinton's tool, hence probably racist 4) a Republican's tool, hence probably racist.
I wonder how much the shift in these polls is due to Rev Wright, and how much is simply the electorate beginning to view McCain as a far more credible commander-in-chief than either of these two Democrats. Americans can see that while McCain was touring Iraq with Joe Lieberman, Obama and Clinton are mired in a racially charged primary that is becoming a bigger and bigger circus by the day.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
There are many factors at play. I think there is evidence this is partly Wright related b/c:
1) Obama has fallen more than Clinton
2) These polls were during the middle-to-end of the MSM coverage of the Wright stuff.*
3) Other corroborative polls that show 40+% of Ds and 50+% of the country is "less likely" to vote for Obama because of his association with Rev. Wright.
But you are definitely right to note that all of the movement is not due to the Wright situation. It will be interesting to see if Obama's fav/unfavs change notably around this week. If he goes from 65/30 to 55/40 that could be a huge change in the race.
*New Kids on the Block reference intentional
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...according to Rasmussen. McCain has been holding steady at about +10 to +12.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
+8 to -1 in a week. I'll be interested in seeing if that holds up through PA.
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....even before the Wright flap, mostly just due to demographics. I think now she almost has a lock on a double-digit win.
Jim Geraghty reports that Obama's lead in North Carolina may be slipping too. It's possible....not likely, but *possible* that HRC could go 5 for 5 in the remaining primaries. That would reset the whole game.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Yes that is a good catch. The large percentages telling pollsters that the Wright sleaze makes them "less likely to vote for Obama" may very well consist mostly of people who were never likely to vote for Obama in the first place.
A much smaller but statistically significant drop in Obama's approval rating is firmer evidence that people who might have voted for him are less inclined to.
Whether this effect lasts through election day will depend on whether Obama keeps getting hammered on it. The McCain campaign, if not McCain personally, will have to join the criticism in order to keep it in the news enough to keep swing voters reminded of it. McCain can't afford to be intimidated by the predicable "racism" smears made in response.
all hoped for from Obama was that he would move towards MLK's colorblind society, but turns out to lack the courage, and is playing the white guilt card in a more sophisticated way that Revs Al and Jesse.
Yet, even Jesse and Al weren't associated so closely with the level of hate of rev j wright.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
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Good stuff Adam.
So let me just throw something out here:
Hillary takes PA by 25+
She somehow squeaks out a win in NC by 2 points
Assume she takes IN, but it's close as well
She would be on her way to sweeping the rest of the states, and might make up the delegate deficit and woo the SDs. She wins the nomination, but then Obama doesn't take the VP offer and she chooses, say, Evan Bayh. How much could it hurt her and the Democrat party for blacks to either stay home or vote for John McCain! I think anything below 85% D/R split in the black vote and she cannot win the presidency.
And should I think about changing my registration to Democrat so I can vote for Obama here in Oregon on May 20th to keep the carnage rolling? :) Nah, I probably wouldn't.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
The Democratic party has held a registration advantage for ages but typically these D's vote R in federal elections.
Adam, I think you are referring the KY-3, Yarmouth seats, where Anne Northup has filed for a rematch of the 2006 seat. Weirdly, despite the bad numbers statewide, Obama would probably be a plus to Yarmouth's turnout - Obama supporters are concentrated in the Louisville Metro.
Remember, too, that like Tennesse, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, Kentucky is a borderline Clinton-Gore state that still feels the Clintonian pull. Clinton carried in 1992 but lost in 1996. To respond to a previous poster, Kentucky and Virginia electorally are not that alike - much of rural Virginia resembles Kentucky but the Democratic Army of Northern Virginia continues to utterly alter the political landscape there.
Bottom line is that the Wright videos hurt and hurt badly. It becomes easier for people to paint Obama as a more traditional black candidate, which will sap his ability to hold serve with Clinton in the remaining states.
You are right, it is KY-03... I had that at first and talked myself out of it. I'll fix it.
The most recent KY poll has a geographic breakdown. The 28% of the state in Louisville are right now 54-36 for McCain over Obama. For the record, McCain leads Clinton there 55-41.
The big differences between Clinton and Obama are in North Central (-0 to -32) and Eastern Ky (+15 to -53). That 68 point swing in Eastern Ky is in an area similar to blue collar WV, AR, and PA that seem to be Clinton country.
I agree with your comment about KY being a close place in the past. That's why a 30+ point lead is so incredible.
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First, because I think the D primary there has not happened yet. Obama looks really weak there.
Second, because it could be a landslide state that McCain moves to the right. That could help in KY-03 where a close re-match is going on in a Kerry +3 seat that includes Louisville.
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