OH-05, VA-01: Special Election Results Thread

Districts Lean R, but Special Elections Are Always Funky

By Adam C Posted in Comments (43) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

OH-05 Results here. OH-05 went 61-38 for Bush over Kerry in 2004.

[UPDATE 10:45 PM] 100% reporting:
Latta (R) 57
Weirauch (D) 43

9:00 PM Eastern (25% reporting):
Latta (R) 55
Weirauch (D) 45

[UPDATE 9:25 PM]: The papers are calling it for Latta. He now leads 56-44 with just under half of the votes reporting. This combo of big wins seems to suggest that partisan R districts are holding up in a difficult environment where both parties and all parts of government are seen in a negative light. Note however that the NRCC and RNC had to get involved in OH-05 where they should not be needed. This takes money and time away from other tighter districts to spend on an R +10 area.

VA-01 looks like it is already over, Rep. Wittman (R) is now the newest Congressman. He won 62-36 in a district that Bush won 60-39 in 2004. Well done Rep. Wittman.


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9:12 43% reporting

Latta 55
The D 45

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This is something I have noticed and never really understood. Why do left leaning blogs seem to focus on these type of special elections WAY more than right leaning blogs such as this one? Has there been a decision made by the powers that be, or has it just been something that happened?

Where's your diary on the topic?

These are grass roots sites. What people write about is what people follow. They are not top down organizations. You have the power!

And for what it's worth, we'd love to see more electoral (non-Presidential) diaries.

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some go without much notice, as my post from earlier today did. I don't think straight shooter was blaming anyone for it, or even necessarily saying that it's a bad thing, but I do think he's onto something that the left takes a greater interest in these than we do.

www.republicansenate.org

but personally i do think it would be good to have more coverage of such things. And i dont know a campaign alive that would turn down such coverage. And just to let you know where I am coming from, I consider myself a moderate but usually vote for Democrats (no need to argue with that and say Dems arent moderate thats not my point), but i enjoy this blog a lot and really wish it would have more coverage of these races from a Republican/Conservative perspective.

Just a few posts to note:
1. Erickson's "Bob Latta in OH-05 needs our help"

2. jrichardson's post on Robin Weirauch

3. And, of course, Bob Latta's own post on why the race was important.

Agreed that there wasn't an avalanche of support from the conservative blogosphere (or its readers), but it wasn't from a lack of attention to the race.

Just sayin'...

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David All
Slatecard
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I am simply saying that compared to the left, the right does not put as much as an emphasis on this. However, I think that many have explained the reasons for this fairly well.

It has 5 recommendations. And much of Eabo Clipper's work had less than that. It's repetition and following a story (think missing white woman stories on FoxNews) that build a presence.

I think your diary was right, but too long for most to read all of it. I'd narrow to your competitive races and start following developments. Call out the Ds for past votes or things they say while giving props to Rs for good things they do. It's a partisan mindset but it's how making an election show up on the RS radar works.

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If you mean, focus as in on the election results, I think that just happens.

If you mean on the whole campaign, I think it has to do with the ditrict. RedState had a lot of talk about the MA-5 special election in October. We had an R in a very D district that had a chance and we did try to take advanatge of it. It's probably the same on the other side. OH-5 and VA-1 are heavily GOP districts so a special election, with the typical low turnout, gives a mobilized minority (in tonight's cases, Dem) candidate a chance to steal one by getting supporters to the polls.

the best explanation. But i do think there can't be much doubt that the lefty blog focused on the MA-5 almost or just as much as this blog, but def dominated this blog and others in terms of the coverage of OH-5 and VA-1. I can understand not covering VA-1 as that was not very competitive, but w/ the RCCC dumping over 15% of its cash into a heavily leaning district, OH-5 was something I was expecting more coverage of here. And i meant coverage of the whole campaign, as in my opinion that is by far the most important.

When you "expect" coverage, who are you expecting to report on it?

RS needs people like you to look up the candidates and write about them. Maybe do some searching on the makeup of the district, the type of successful candidates, who should be running, and then follow up with major news from the campaign. We need people to get on the campaign listserve and to rely some (but not every little detail) to the RS community.

Eabo Clipper did this really really well with the MA-05 race. I highly recommend you look up his diary and see how often he posted and what he posted. He single handedly made MA-05 appear on the RS radar.

So my recommendation is to stop "expecting" and start doing. We are a better community each time someone makes that decision.

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my views would be appreciated considering im not a Republican. And thats no diss to anyone here as I have been actively reading this site for over a year and very occasionally commenting when I feel appropriate, but I see no need to stir up controversy. I like reading the conservative viewpoint which is why Im here, but i doubt my writing on elections or other things is something that people really want considering it won't be from a conservative viewpoint.

At least you wouldn't be claiming conservatism that wasn't
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

There are a few Democrats who post here and who are appreciated. Think of yourself as a guest in someone else's house (which is what I do if I post at MyDD). Don't be snarky, don't gloat, and actually try to engage the conservative viewpoint rather than berating it. Judging from your posts here, that shouldn't be a problem. I rather think people here would enjoy your contributions.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

and have noticed over the time some Democrats posting here and being treated with respect. I may decide to post some diaries, but I doubt that they will be on specific policies as I dont have the time to debate against so many people at once. But one thing I was thinking about writing was a perspective on the Republican presidential candidates, who I (as someone who will probably end up voting for the Dem, but not definitely) would prefer to run against and who I think would do the best job of running the country. I feel like that may add something since most diaries on that subject here have obvious biases based on who the diarist is supporting.

To try to analyze the difference, I will point you toward my favored theory.

Politics uses the internet to fill a void. The left is filling the void of a grassroots movement. They relied on unions and political bosses (see Daley) for a lot of their support, which was very top-down. The internet gives them a chance to be part-think tank, part-election strategist.

The right already had think tanks, elections strategists, and a whole conservative movement thanks to the backlash of 1970s socialism/liberalism. The right uses the internet as a form of new media. They see it as an outlet for stories that are not covered otherwise (i.e. illegal immigration crimes and success in Iraq) or for opinions or perspectives that are largely absent in mainstream news reporting.

The left didn't need that void filled b/c 9 out of 10 DC reporters voted for Kerry and 7 out of 10 of all reporters did so. Even when professionals are not purposefully biased their understanding of the world shows through (this is most pronounced on gun and abortion - the media never picks up on the fact that gun free zones seem to attract the most gun violence and the media has gone out of its way to use the left's terminology on abortion "pro-choice" and "anti-abortion rights").

So the left is filling a void of activism. The right is filling a void of outlet. I think much of the difference in emphasis is generally traceable to those differences.

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Issues where the political biases of the media typically show through the most tend to be issues that are dear to social conservatives. Above all, gay marriage and intelligent design, but also abortion and certainly stem cell related coverage. On all of these, the media is functionally liberal, even when they attempt to be fair.

It's not just these elections, but all non-Presidential elections. It drives me crazy, but I think the reason for it is that conservatives are generally more interested in a coherent philosophy and guiding principles while liberals are more interested in having power and do-gooding with everyone else's money.

www.republicansenate.org

CA-50, I think. If I recall that was pretty big over here.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Dailykos probably gets 100X the traffic of Redstate. The left-wing blogs are just much more developed at this point, although things are getting better all the time on the right, and its been nice to see Redstate grow over the years. But its still obvious that the left has a big advantage on the Internet in general. Of course the right has an even bigger advantage on Radio, which is arguably more important.

There will be more focus on all types of elections on this site and others when there is more traffic and more people righting entries.

comparing the percent of the front page posts on blogs such as DailyKos and MyDD with this one that are focused on the special elections there is no doubt there is a significant difference. But Adam C and others made very good explanations for the reasons for this.

Latta is running around as well county-by-county as Gillmore did in 2006.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/OH/H/05/county.00...

The key will be when Wood County comes in. She'll have to pile up a big win there at this point.

Couple more wins like this and the NRCC will be bankrupt in 2008.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Is already bankrupt for 2008. Or close enough.

Endangered incumbents better raise themselves some cash, and we're going after lots of rich people who are willing to pay their own way because the NRCC is broke.

"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly

"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly

Which hacked a lot of people off who were having their donations to the NRCC used against their preferred candidate in their local races.

Even though they changed their policy and are under new leadership...

"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly

The NRSC is even further down my list.

Their strategy and use of resources was so inspired in 06. Then there was the immigration reform bill and their relentless quest to eliminate pork.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Still holding steady at 55-44.

...glad to see Latta closed the deal. I admit, I wish it were Buehrer, but I'll take the win. From what I gathered, Latta was not a good candidate, and Weirach overperformed to some degree, so this seems like a good win in my book.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

The AP called it for Latta. Id say both parties lost in this election. The margin is simply too big for the Dems to claim a victory, and the Democrats lose b/c they realize that some districts they simply won't be able to win. The Republicans lose because they were already broke BEFORE this election, and they can't outspend the Dems 2:1 in every district with this much of a Republican lean.

I do wonder if the NRCC overreacted here. He's winning by about as much as Gillmor won last year. He ran ahead of Gillmor in many of the counties, including the district's population center in Wood county.

When Jo Ann Davis won her seat in 2000, she won with 58%. Wittman did better than that.

A flawed candidate emerging from a divisive primary in Ohio did about as well as a beloved 9-term inclumbent the year before. A candidate in Eastern Virgnia outperforms the previous incumbent when she was first up. Republicans come close in a MA open seat, and run better in a CA open seat than they have in decades (though they still lose badly). Rs win record-breaking statewide wins in LA. OR-Sen and ME-Sen are looking better than people thought they would.

Of course, there is the KY Gov. debacle, but downstate Rs were re-elected handily there. And VA Sen.

But 2006 was nothing but bad news. I hesitate to say it, but I think we might have turned the corner. If we can raise some more money, we might do better than we thought we would.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

...many loyal Republicans I know have not given anything this cycle because of all the uncertainty inside the party right now what with what looks like will be a highly contested primary battle. The immigration battle turned off a lot of would be donors too. I for one will donate to our presidential candidate, and both campaign committees next year.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Hopefully we can pick up House seats this cycle, and hold the line on Senate losses to two or so.

Tonight went a lot better than I expected it would.

"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly

Well, I don't donate to any Republican group any more because I cannot trust them with my money. I only give to individual candidates. I will say here in JoAnn's old district the amount of mailings they sent out was crazy.

but from what I've gathered, their internals showed this to be a much tighter race. Looks like they might need to spend a bit more on polling in order to save a bundle on campaigning.

TX22 is an R+15 District and he barely won against a write-in candidate in still very GOP-friendly Texas.OH05 is a R+10 district in increasingly hostile Ohio - and Latta still wins big.

Nick Lampson is going to get kicked all over the district by Phil Gramm's former aide.

Let's keep this rolling.

Does my heart good.

They made a big push here and didn't move the numbers an inch. Just goes to show that people may not be buying what they are selling.

 
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