Okay, I Understand That There Is Obamamania . . .
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Counting Chickens | Hillary Clinton | Mayhap? — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
But that's no excuse for this. It is entirely possible for Hillary Clinton to catch Obama and claiming that Clinton is mathematically eliminated only serves to reduce the Obama campaign's credibility--in addition to giving Hillary Clinton a rhetorical cudgel. The Obama campaign would have done better to say that the momentum they have may make it difficult for Clinton to catch up but the only campaign that can say that their opponent is mathematically eliminated is John McCain's. As Jay Cost points out much of the reason for Obama's recent successes stems from the fact that those recent successes have been in contests where the demographics favored Obama's campaign. While this may eventually be seen as having created irresistible momentum for Obama, it may also be that once the contests move to states where the demographics favor Hillary Clinton--in, say, Ohio and Texas--her campaign will be able to recover.
Let's therefore not count Hillary Clinton out just yet. To say the least, she still has the capability to make her presence felt in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
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Okay, I Understand That There Is Obamamania . . . 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Hillary on the one hand claiming the lead in the popular vote, while Obama claiming the lead in pledged delegates, neither one able to clinch it.
Hillary will also say that she won all the big important Democrat powerhouse states (where most of the superdelegates come from, BTW), and Obama will say that he won more states.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
(1) Puerto Rico is winner-take-all for around 60 delegates. That potentially allows Hillary to wipe out the entire delegate advantage Obama won from the Potomac Primary contests.
(2) The credentials committee will decide whether or not to seat the FL and MI delegates. And who is one of the three chairs on the credentials committee? Why this lovely lady.
Pass the popcorn, as they say.
They're all Clinton appointees.
Which in itself is merely a bit of data: after all, Obama must have many super-delegates in his camp who were in the Clinton administration. But I think that too many of the people commenting on the upcoming Party fight are treating super-delegates as if they were like potatoes - which is to say, all slightly different, but essentially interchangeable. They're not. At this level, you need to look at personalities, not statistical trends.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
do you have a link regarding Puerto Rico?
Puerto Rico is a caucus. Additionally Rule 13B of the DNC delegate selection states...
States shall allocate district-level delegates and alternates in proportion to the percentage of the
primary or caucus vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling
below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates. Subject to section F. of this rule, no
state shall have a threshold above or below 15%. States which use a caucus/convention system,
shall specify in their Delegate Selection Plans the caucus level at which such percentages shall be
determined.
Hillary would need to win 60% of the remaining vote to catch up to Obama on delegates. That is EXTREMELY unlikely given she isn't going to win by that margin in Wisconsin and likely not going to win North Carolina or Oregon at all.
So David Plouffe is entirely correct and it is clear that the Obama campaign is trying to pick up the mantle of presumptive nominee.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
Has Puerto Rico's caucus ever mattered? Barone can say it has but June primaries are pretty meaningless 90% of the time. In 2004 New Jersey voted 92% in favor of John Kerry. Not because the NJ political machine made that happen. Rather because the race was already decided.
In 2004 51 of 57 delegates went to Kerry with 6 being unpledged or 89% of the vote went to Kerry, a smaller percentage than NJ.
Also note that Puerto Rico's governor has endorsed Barack Obama.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
...and is not subject to those rules. I thought it was a primary, but I could be wrong. But I do know it is winner-take-all.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
whether it was a state. As I said it wasn't winner take all in 2004. 6 delegates went to uncommitted.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
Barack Obama wins nomination; refuses to seat Puerto Ricans.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
True, it's impossible to think of a single solution that she's ever actually proposed AND had implemented. Well, that's if you don't count her time (and quantity) proven expertise in taming Bimbo Eruptions.
You can't afford the price of free corn.
From Plouffe? Now when Hillary's nominated she can say she beat the odds & the naysayers, & all that pap... I wonder if they paid Plouffe to say it???
.... is how obama's credibility is reduced because of media prognostication.