One month in to the Spring of Pain.
...and they're tired.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 | Spring of Pain | The Best Democratic Primary EVER — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Oh, so terribly, terribly tired.
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are undeniably exhausted. They've been campaigning hard for more than a year, and their wall-to-wall schedules won't let up anytime soon. Neither wants to cede ground in their epic struggle for the Democratic nomination.
Fatigue, however, breeds unforced errors — and both candidates have made some in the past few weeks.
He turned in a weak debate performance in Pennsylvania, took heat for saying residents of small-town America were bitter and inadvertently praised Republican John McCain. She, too, had a sub-par debate and mistakenly claimed to have landed under sniper fire in Bosnia as first lady.
(H/T: NRO's Media Blog)
15 months of 20 hour days. Another month-plus of the same. All of which is mere preface to the real struggle, but that's a different political season entirely. Besides, all those people who confidently told us that it'd be all over in March are now confidently telling us that it'll be all over in June, so clearly things can't get worse for the Democrats.
Read on.
If you're a Democrat wondering what you and your party have done to deserve this continuing gutter brawl: well, we have a list, but you probably aren't really keen in having the items on it brought up again. On the other hand, if you just want to know the cold mechanics of it, 'tis much more simple. Your party's primary system is not designed to handle a real race.
It's tempting to blame it all on the ad-hoc kludges inflicted on the system in the last thirty-plus years - a caucus and a primary in Texas? Which unsung genius thought of that? - but even from the start the system had one, crucial quirk to it: you can win a majority of the popular primary vote in every state and still not get enough delegates to win. Looking at the numbers: currently, you need 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination, which works out to 62% of the pledged Democratic delegates*. You don't get those, you aren't the winner. You can be the likely winner, but hold off on printing those convention balloons just quite yet.
This is the major reason why Obama and Clinton are burning both ends of the candle while McCain's getting plenty of rest for the general election. In their quest to design an Utopian primary system the Democrats have both decreed that the threshold for victory is at what is called "super-majority" levels in other political contexts, and then designed a primary where it's virtually impossible for candidates in contested races to consistently hit that number. Certainly, neither surviving Democratic candidate has: in fact, at the moment neither has even broken 50% of pledged delegates, and while the remaining races probably will let Obama break 50% he cannot get enough to clinch the election without the super-delegates.
The system is not really designed for an actual contest, in other words. It assumes that past a certain arbitrary point somebody is winning all of the primaries, because the other candidates have dropped out from the race. It does not assume that one candidate might, for example, choose to actively work on easily-manipulated caucus States; or that a candidate might win most of the high-population Blue States and still be behind in the count; or that more than one candidate might be able to rely on a specific identity group for their support. So when you get a year like 2008, where all these things have happened at once, it's not surprising to see that the system has broken down. And will stay broken down, until enough super-delegates screw their courage to the sticking point to intervene**.
I'd go further with this, except that it's getting towards noon, and it's just the right temperature that I like for taking a nap. Maybe afterwards I'll make up some lemonade, get some steaks on the grill, go out for a walk with the family, enjoy the day.
No reason why I shouldn't, either: it's not like I'm a Democrat, or anything. Those poor suckers have phone bank duty right now.
Moe Lane
*Those who might note that the GOP rules require that the nominee get 65% of the pledged delegates to guarantee a win should remember that most of our primary contests are winner-take-all.
**Which they could do today. Of course, today the front-runner has a mere plurality in the delegate count, cannot quite burst free of the grapple that his opponent has locked him into, and has done poorly in several States that the Democrats were assuming that they'd win in November - but what does that matter, against the sullen desire of the Netroots?
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One month in to the Spring of Pain. 15 Comments (0 topical, 15 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Now then, does that popular vote lead include MI and FL or not. Because, we CANNOT count MI. I mean we MUST include MI. I mean...
"Let every vote count"
-Al Gore 2000
I worked a job opening a new restaurant. (Well, the owners used to own a cafe/bakery type restaurant, they wanted to expand into a sit-down kinda place that would get written up in the black-tie kinda section of the newspaper instead of the hippie-dippy section).
For two or three weeks, I worked 20 hour days. Sunday we were closed and I spent Sunday asleep. But, for two or three weeks, I worked 100 hour weeks.
It reached the point where I would lie down for a 2 hour nap in the afternoon and I couldn't sleep because of all of the whispering voices just out of reach and the loud hum that constantly began following me whenever I stopped moving.
I smoked about 3 packs of cigarettes a day (well, in total, I probably really smoked only about 1, but I had to buy 3 packs because I only had about 35 seconds to smoke any given cigarette).
All that to say... Hillary and Obama are currently insane. This is not a criticism and I am not saying that I would be any different were I in their shoes. I'm saying that, when I worked 100-hour weeks, I started experiencing hallucinations and underwent extensive personality changes.
Of course, after I started working only 60 hour weeks, my "real" self returned and the voices went away (and mom said that it was nice to have me back).
But those guys? Bonkers. Absolutely bonkers.
And if McCain is doing the same thing, he's going through the same thing too. I do hope that his lock on the nomination means that he's sleeping more than 2 hours at a time... for his sake.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
Even Rush is firing on all 8 cylinders. All we need now is a couple of major public meltdowns by HRC or BHO.
_____________________________
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
--Aristotle
Is it possible for the whole convention to pass without them deciding who their nominee is?
They'll keep voting until they pick one. The convention can't end until they finish voting.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Of course, if that occurs then we keep the White House, sweep both Houses of Congress, and pretty much unseat every sitting Democratic governor up for election this year, so there's not a chance in Hell of that happening.
I mean, we can't even really wistfully fantasize about it happening, it's so low-probability.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...are the same person?
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
So since 1968 the African Americans and Feminists have switched teams. Nothing much else is changed.
Bet Denver is real excited to have all of them coming to town.
She is likely to widen that margin.
Neither is going to win outright.
And I believe Hillary has effective control of the Credentials committee and had it before the primary process started(Say what you like about the Clintons they do know where the levers are)
Oh yes indeed best primary ever Obama wins on delegates, Hillary on popular vote and actual electability, Florida an Michigan slighted, Insanity likely at their convention, A party that doesn't believe in rules going into a major dustup over them. SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET !!!!!!!!!!!!
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777