Our Bob Shrum & Why We Should Not Expect Much in 2008
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The GOP will not take back the House in 2008, and part of that blame will rest on Tom Cole's (R-OK) shoulders. As Rob noted yesterday, Tom Cole has a unique strategy for winning. First, he will back candidates who disagree with fundamental premises of the GOP base and second, he will try to out Democrat the Democrats in the general election.
Of course, Cole did not say it that way. What he said was
"Oh, I don't think the problem was spending. . . .People who argue that we lost because we weren't true to our base, that's just wrong."
He also wants the GOP to recruit more moderates.
Well, here's the kicker -- the country saw a purging of a few of its good conservatives last year, but there was a bloodbath among moderate Republicans. In fact, the Democrats ran to the *right* of many of the defeated Republicans. Oh, and on spending? A poll released today by Democracy Corps, a Democrat polling outfit, finds that 80 percent of likely voters disapprove of the federal government’s handling of spending.
Cole tends to be a conservative guy, but he's also been part off the problem these past few years. Cole was Steve Largent's pollster during Largent's trainwreck of a gubernatorial campaign. In fact, if you talk to some of Largent's campaign staffers, they'll tell you Cole's polling was so terrible they had no clue they were going to lose until the very end. And now he wants to oppose former Congressman Ryun in favor of taxhiker Lynn Jenkins. Note to Tom Cole: You might ought to talk to Joe Schwartz and also Bill Sali's primary opponents first.
Lastly, let's not forget Cole basically ran the campaign of Tom Coburn's primary opponent, Kirk "the Squish" Humphries, in 2004. Cole gave Humphries horrible advice, including telling Humphries to take a statewide tour instead of concentrating on where the GOP voters were. The results? Humphries did not even get 30% of the vote. Oh, and Humphries, the former mayor of Oklahoma City, was in the race way the heck before Coburn got in.
Cole's track record is like Bob Shrum's. Ask John Kerry how well that worked.
Note to RedState readers: You may want to avoid giving money to the NRCC this cycle.
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Our Bob Shrum & Why We Should Not Expect Much in 2008 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
After the Elizabeth Dole fiasco with the weakest Linc I swore off the national committees
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I think Republican voters need to donate to their local congressional race.We have to toss these defeatocrats out on their ear and any RINO's that have supported them.
I will still support and won't jump ship because of one statement made over 1 1/2 years before the election. Winning the House back is important to me.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Just go directly to the candidates and cut out the middle men of the congressional committees.
Signature disclaimer: I'm not currently paid by any campaign, but I am available. Current preferences for President: 1) F.Thompson; 2) Romney; 3) McCain; 4) Gingrich; Guiliani removed 04/03/07
Let's be honest about Largent. His staff released a press release while he was off in the middle of the woods talking about 9/11 and what he "witnessed".
I don't think Cole was quoted fairly. He was probably saying that spending wasn't the driving issue.
You have to admit. When you look at the crosstabs, the conservative base TURNED OUT in the last cycle. It was the "moderates" (read liberals) who defected en masse.
The driving issues were clearly Iraq, corruption, and Foley at the end of the day.
I don't like that, but that's the way it is. Spending wasn't up there.
Now, the challenge is, that you have to INCREASE base turnout even more, though we did well this cycle, and get a number of the squishy seats back too.
Now, Cole promised not to take sides in primaries, so I don't know how that Jim Ryun thing plays out.
What I do know is his record. He brought us 10 seats as ED of the NRCC in 92 when we lost in a terrible Bush cycle.
He was the consultant for, and helped elect repeatedly several members:
COBURN (House races)
INHOFE
JC Watts
LARGENT
LUCAS
et al.
People should ask Senator COBURN what he thinks of Cole.
what we lost completely were the Independents and the fiscal conservatives. I have several friends who fall into this category who almost always vote Republican who are (and I quote them) "sick and tired of the way the GOP spends money. How are they different from Democrats?"
For the most part, those friends stayed home and a few even voted Democrat and money was THE #1 issue.
Signature disclaimer: I'm not currently paid by any campaign, but I am available. Current preferences for President: 1) F.Thompson; 2) Romney; 3) McCain; 4) Gingrich; Guiliani removed 04/03/07
Well, here's the kicker -- the country saw a purging of a few of its good conservatives last year, but there was a bloodbath among moderate Republicans. In fact, the Democrats ran to the *right* of many of the defeated Republicans.
Well, yes, but this is because the moderates came from less-heavily Republican districts (hence their moderation). If you are a Republican running in a district Kerry carried, your lifespan is going to be pretty short in a bad conservative year. Running as a die-hard conservative Republican in those districts isn't going to help matters any, except in a Republican wave year.
And now he wants to oppose former Congressman Ryun in favor of taxhiker Lynn Jenkins. Note to Tom Cole: You might ought to talk to Joe Schwartz and also Bill Sali's primary opponents first.
Bill Sali barely won with 50% of the vote in one of the most conservative districts in the country. And we dodged a bullet with Tim Walberg, who almost lost to a candidate whose biography was "Renier has run Mirror Pond Organic Farm since 2000 and also has worked as a paralegal, including a stint as an assistant to feminist legal scholar Catharine MacKinnon at University of Michigan Law School." These are not necessarily the strongest examples for always going after the most conservative candidates we can find.
Ryun is a classic example. The guy had a needlessly close race in 2004 -- a great Republican year -- before losing in 2006. That tells me that he's not the best fit for the district, which is solidly Republican, but which isn't exactly ID-01. We can quibble about whether there's an acceptable alternative in Jenkins, but I'm not sure we should be knee-jerk for Ryun either.
In fact, if you talk to some of Largent's campaign staffers, they'll tell you Cole's polling was so terrible they had no clue they were going to lose until the very end.
This isn't exactly fair. Almost all of the polling showed Largent ahead until the end, when he committed a major on-air gaffe (and he still would have run if there hadn't been a Republican running as a third party).
The bottom line is that, unfortunately, conservatives aren't the majority in the country, and we'll need a good chunk of moderates in order to win. I'm glad to see no one is primarying Gordon Smith or Susan Collins, and I hope after the Santorum debacle we won't be going after Snarlin Arlen this time around. I'm not big fans of those three, but I'd greatly prefer having them to the Democrats in those districts. Someone who is 80% my friend and whatnot.
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder how serious RS is about candidates in places like MA-05, where even a solid conservative isn't likely to get above 40% of the vote. And there are plenty of districts that are in play with the right kind of Republican running.
I'm all for recruiting solid conservatives in red or even marginal districts. I'm also in favor of primary-ing moderate to liberal republicans in conservative districts. However, in Democrat-leaning districts (particularly in the northeast), we need to recruit viable candidates. This may mean some pro-choice Republicans, some gay marriage republicans, some "green" republicans, etc. We need to be a big tent party. I say this comfortably as a pro-life Reagan conservative. If we only set out to recruit die-hard conservatives in every race, we will be looking at permanent minority status.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
To use our area as a small example, you could not win in the MO 1st with the same guy that would win in MO 2nd I’m sure it’s the same most everywhere else.
That said, Cole or whoever, should do everything possible to recruit pro-military veterans or even active duty personal. A very simple “I do this for the troops” message.
but I think he's right on the spending issue. It was a sore point for conservatives, and the MSM enjoyed using the issue for ridicule, but I didn't meet anyone who said, "You know, I really don't like the growth in federal spending. I think I'll vote for a democrat."
The problem for Republicans is that we don't have a strong spokesman who can articulate conservative ideals. Again, the pain, but GWB has not been front and center on defending conservative policy, or even defending the GWOT. He/we have been outflanked by a bunch of intellectual pigmies. They speak, and the MSM beats their talking points into the public psyche. No public figure challenges the MSM, and their statements become public "truth". Blogs help, but let's face it. Only two kinds of people read the blogs; True Believers (Conservative - 100%) and True Believers (Liberal - 100%). The Internet allows people to get news faster by checking Google, Yahoo, MSNBC, Fox, etc., online, but it is the same information that they will get on television or print. Same misrepresentation, different source.
I think that Katrina was the final blow for GWB. Not that so much in how the actual response was handled. But Katrina was sold by the MSM as the single greatest tragedy in American history. The reporting was so out of proportion to the actual damage that it appears that the lies were intentional. Even Fox News got in on the act with Shep Smith crying about the devastation during his broadcasts. GWB never recovered, even though the local and state response was criminal. Still, it served the MSM purpose to use Katrina to destroy GWB, and I think it worked.
We need not only a vision, but someone who can communicate the vision. The communication is more important than the vision. A cup half full vision will be better than the alternative, if Hillary!, Obama, Edwards are the alternative. Publicly pointing out the truth, or better yet, getting in front of the truth, is critical. Recent example of such effectiveness: Sebelius (Gov-KS) wanted to make political points a al Katrina about the Guard, but had to back down from the lie.
This is usually where I say Run, Fred, Run. But if he doesn't run, we need a leader who is willing to strike back when the MSM and Dems lie. We need leadership that is not afraid of the media, is more committed to the truth than to cooperation with his enemies domestic and foreign, and is willing to take the message to the people.
Where is that quality of leadership? Rudy? Romney? McCain? Senate? And especially the House of Representatives. Completely missing.
1) It is funny to think you will vote for a Democrat who will be more conservative than a Republican. People elected Conservative Democrats in Indiana, but no one thought they would be more conservative than the ones we had.
2) GOP moderates were all in either tilt dem areas or tilt republican main reason why they were moderate. In a purge year they are usually the first go because well when Independents don't want to vote for a Republican it is hard for them to win.
3) Said it before and I will say it again. Very few people say my Representative brought 10 million to our district I am mad. While I have advocated a reduction in federal spending for the past 2 years it is more a thing people stick in the back of their mind. So CroakerNorge we agree completely there
I have said the biggest problem about the Republican Party over the last 6 years is their
1) Perceived lack of independence from the President. Which is now coming back to bit them.
2) There perceive lack of independence within their own caucus. Blue Dog Democrats are one of the largest caucuses in the Democratic Party. Mainstream Partership was hit by a missle in the last election. There is now !!!1!!! "Yankee Republican" left.
I believe Cole is on the right track here. Conservatives didn't lose because they were not Conservative enough because if that was the case in 2002 they would of been run out do to No Child Left Behind and Precription Drugs.
The final problem Republicans have just involves Indiana. The Republican bench is rather light here. We have Mike Pense and Lugar, but he is a moderate, but every other Republican is more tolerated than well liked. Republicans need to attract better Republicans to the party in Indiana because in this deeply Republican state they are doing horrible
He cannot take a fully principled stand even if he wants to. His first job is to defend incumbents and his second job is to recruit challengers.
On point 1, there are incumbents who don't deserve to be supported. Keller and Jones and other white-flaggers need challengers and hopefully Red State will highlight those challengers as they emerge. Dollars that go the NRCC help all incumbents-good and bad. It's a bad investment.
On point 2, recruiting challengers, Cole actually is not much better positioned than the blogosphere. If the best he can do is a tax-raiser like Jenkins, then Red State and other blogs can point that out as well as how to help Ryun. Even more important, if Red Staters and others start now, we can raise awareness on behalf of the best challenger candidates in the districts we have a good chance of winning.
I wish Red State had a more formalized process in this regard. Perhaps this site could use a "Nominate Them" section to go with Confirm Them.
While the voters may have been alienated by the repubican Congress and its spending how will the voters view this democrat Congress and its spending ? Earmarks concealed in an intelligence bill for example. Leading democrats enriching themselves at the public trough and not a peep from the media.
The thing I dont like is the lack of fight from the republicans.No one is calling this Congress to account. You dont hear the presidential candidates bashing the democrat congress for its disgraceful conduct.

Looks right now like no cash to the NRCC, NRSC, or even RNC for that matter. I'll be supporting those that will use the money wisely. Seems like the aforementioned groups don't know what that means, they'd rather cater to the "moderates" and let the conservatives fend for themselves.
"Cowards cut and run, Marines never do"