Presidential Polling Round-Up
Clinton Lead Drops Among Ds; Huckabee Launch in IA; McCain Most Electable
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As the Iowa primaries approach in less than two months, the polling industry is speeding up with new primary, caucus, and national polls. As a numbers guy, it's good to start keep abreast of the movements in these polls.
IA:
Democrats: Clinton has lead for a while now but the lead has almost entirely evaporated with recent polls. This is a serious 3-way race and the expectations game helps either Obama or Edwards if they can eke out a small win.
Republicans: Romney continues to lead by a decent margin, but Huckabee has shoot up from also-ran to a solid second. With Giuliani and McCain virtually skipping the state, will Iowa end one of the other 3 campaigns (Fred's in third of those right now and even behind Rudy).
NH:
Democrats: Clinton's lead has shrunk in the last week or two, but she still leads by a large margin. A loss in IA might cut into her NH margin, but it would be a big upset for either of the other candidate to win here.
Republicans: Romney has a commanding and growing lead. Giuliani has stumbled a little, giving McCain a chance to grab second place. If McCain places 5th in Iowa and 3rd or lower in NH, he probably can't seriously contest other states. Ron Paul is showing strength in NH with 8% in the most recent poll and polling ahead of Huckabee and Thompson in the last two polls. Can Thompson afford to place 4th in Iowa and 4th or 5th in NH? Will SC really come to rescue Thompson if Huckabee is still around and Thompson hasn't finished in the top 2 (or even 3) in the early states?
Head to Head:
RCP round-up: Clinton's lead over all Rs has slipped. She no longer scores over 50 against Giuliani, McCain, Thompson or Romney.
Giuliani v. Clinton has fallen into a consistent 3 to 6 point lead for Clinton.
McCain v. Clinton shows a real McCain surge in the past several polls. McCain ties Clinton in Quinnipiac and leads Clinton by 2 in Rasmussen. The outlier poll showing McCain down 9 was of all adults rather than registered or likely voters. McCain currently polls the strongest against Clinton of any Republican.
Thompson v. Clinton has not changed much since Thompson joined the race. Clinton still leads by 5 to 10 points. Thompson seems unable to break through the 45% barrier. Assuming Thompson's poorer showing (relative to the top 2) is due to name recognition, it should have improved over time. Except for the last poll or two, that trend has not happened.
Romney v. Clinton looks like the Thompson chart except Romney trails by a point or two more. He also hits a barrier around 45% and hasn't shown much improvement over time.
[UPDATE] New Huckabee v. Clinton poll shows Clinton continues to fall and leads Huck by only 46-43 nationally (as opposed to an 8 point lead in October and September).
State-by-state polling below
OH:
New Quinnipiac poll shows McCain ahead of Clinton (46-42), Giuliani statistically tied (43-44) with her. Clinton leads Thompson (48-38) and Romney (47-38), but in both polls Clinton is under 50 and there is probably some name recognition effect. Nonetheless, the Clinton campaign must not like seeing her numbers at 42 (v. McCain) and 44 (v. Giuliani) in one of the biggest swing states that has seen recent anti-R movement.
Here is a SUSA poll of OH. A similar story emerges. Clinton only trails McCain (47-46). She leads Giuliani (49-44) and Romney (51-42), and she kills Huckabee (54-37). Thompson was not polled (oddly). Also it is interesting to note that Obama polls much worse than Hillary in OH head-to-head matchups getting walloped by McCain (52-37) and Giuliani (49-41) and making Romney competitive (45-41).
MO:
Missouri shows a tight race between Clinton and any R. McCain, Romney and Giuliani are all in a statistical tie with Clinton. Huckabee lags by a few points and Thompson was not tested. Here, Obama does better than Clinton against most Rs although McCain stays within one point of each of them.
FL:
A poll from late October shows Giuliani taking a 3 point lead over Clinton (46-43). Clinton and McCain are statistically tied (44-43). Clinton leads Thompson (46-41) and Romney (47-39).
Giuliani is the most popular candidate in FL with a 52/30 favorability rating. Edwards (50/28), McCain (48/27), Obama (45/29) are next. Clinton (47/46) is divisive and Thompson and Romney are less known but have mildly positive rating (+11, +8).
In a SUSA poll from the same time period, Clinton led most Rs by a substantial margin. Giuliani held her to a 49-45 lead and McCain kept it 49-46, but Clinton received 49% or more against all Rs. She lead Thompson by 10 and Romney by 15.
All in all, the conventional wisdom is generally correct as things stand now. Giuliani and McCain are the most competitive depending on the state. McCain has a slight edge nationally. Thompson and Romney lag by 5-10 points in most places. Whether that is mainly name recognition or the base for a traditional R candidate in 2007 is still a question to be answered.
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Presidential Polling Round-Up 10 Comments (0 topical, 10 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Most potential voters aren't paying attention yet. The big election is over a year away. So what's the relevance of these polls at this point? Anyone remember where Dean was in this period of the last election?
Are only a month and a half away. The New Hampshire Primary may be even sooner.
When Dean was this far ahead, there were still several more weeks before the first primary ballots were cast.
1) The IA and NH polls matter, period. The elections are in 7-9 weeks in those states. This is the time to start paying attention.
2) Head-to-head polls are important, especially for well known candidates as baselines. If someone starts down 15 in FL and 10 in OH, that is a lot of ground to make up. Clinton, McCain and Giuliani are national figures and their head-to-head numbers are good bases.
3) Dean on Dec 8, 2003 was ahead in IA (29-21-18) and NH (34-20) but in 6th in SC behind Sharpton. In other words, he's about where Clinton is now in IA and NH but without the national numbers, support, and fundraising. He was ahead but not by a crushing margin.
Romney is also in a Dean-like position, except his campaign is much more controlled and focused (like he has an MBA or something). He probably won't implode Dean Scream style but a loss in IA could be just as damning.
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Mitt's greatest challenge right now is probably staving off the pro-life socialist Huckabee in Iowa. After all, even the Republican senator in that state has his populist tendencies.
And I do worry about Hillary not being able to hold onto Iowa. I think that she'd still win the Democratic nomination without Iowa because she'd trounce Obama in New Hampshire and leads pretty comfortably in every other state. But I would hate to risk it by seeing Hillary lose in Iowa. Because, after all, Hillary is the GOP's best shot at winning in November.
Because the Independent Voters in New Hampshire will pay attention.
If Hillary loses Iowa, you can rest assured that the Independents will vote in an overwhelming majority in the NH Democratic Primary.
If McCain doesn't place in the top 3 in Iowa, the loss of NH Independents will sink his bid for the Presidency going into SC.
IF Thompson fails to place in the top 3 in Iowa, his credibility in NH will be sunk (after all they already don't like him because he's been there 3 times since September- so much for early and often) as will his poll numbers there.
If Giuliani doesn't place in the top 3 in Iowa, then his cred as the "most electable candidate" will go down the draim and his numbers will sink (losing NH-Is as well) in New Hampshire. This opens things up even wider for Romney there...
However, if Romney can't win Iowa after spending $15million (he's already spent $10) there, then he too will be hit hard in New Hampshire.
The candidate currently in the drivers seat in this race is Mike Huckabee. If he places in second place in Iowa and Thompson gets fourth, then Huckabee will have a great shot at winning in South Carolina. If he wins Iowa, then the "first tier" candidates' campaigns in New Hampshire will be shot and will have to scramble to make things happen. So much so, that Huckabee will be able to focus on and win South Carolina, carrying even more momentum going into Super Tuesday.
Momentum's key, and the "top tier" Republican candidates are going to need alot more than mbecker's word to discredit Huckabee if they want to slow him down. (Then again, going harshly negative will have an even greater chance of backfiring in both Iowa and SC)
At this point I'm not sure...
Romney is about to find out what it's like to get nibbled at from all sides, Huckabee hitting in Iowa, McCain and others in New Hampshire, Nevada is a complete toss up at this point (which could mean Voldemort could pull a surprise there). South Carolina is the most confusing polling place with 4 candidates all relatively close to each other. (Romney may be getting some traction, but with Fred Thompson getting the NRL endorsement, we'll need to see just what the next group of polls bring)
Then Toss in Guiliani's lead in florida and New York which despite shrinking, seems to not be in serious danger.
I'm not even sure where things are going to land, if i had to pick, honestly I'm leaning towards a possible brokered convention.
Why?
Huckabee pulls a win in Iowa, then has a dismal 4th place in New Hampshire, with McCain, Romney, and Voldemort getting the top three places respectively. Then Nevada and South Carolina are coming up (and who knows where Michigan's going to end up now).
You could have a scenario going into February 5th where you still have 6 viable candidates, and then it's all up in the air.
I don't think I've ever seen a political race quite this wide open before. And certainly not for the Republicans.
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"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI
The candidate currently in the drivers seat in this race is Mike Huckabee.
(Don't give away the secret!) Everybody: Huckabee is still an underdog in this race, even in Iowa. Expect Romney to do well in the early states.
I really think that Hillary will lose Iowa. If Hillary loses Iowa, and Huck wins Iowa, watch out. This race will get turned on its head.
Ironically, I believe the situation above may allow Fred or McCain to re-emerge too, since Huck may slow down after the first couple of states if he doesn't raise enough money.