Question of the Day?
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (33) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Why is a pay to play straw poll in the middle of August, more than one year before we elect the President of the United States, which has no historic track record of predictable success in deciding the nominee, getting so much coverage?
I would submit that it is the same reason New England power outages, the Crawford Ranch, Chandra Levy, and Cindy Sheehan hogged the airwaves when they did -- it is August and there is nothing substantial nor consequential going on in the world in August as far as the political press is concerned.
Oh, and shouldn't we be more horrified if Romney weren't doing well at Ames? It is Pay To Play. He's the richest man running for President. He's won every pay to play adventure thus far (see e.g. Young Republicans straw poll).
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Question of the Day? 33 Comments (0 topical, 33 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I personally think it's a mistake for the Romney campaign to get in on this poll. If it had been my call, I would have said: "Don't spend the money. Sit it out, save the money for later on in the campaign, keep talking with people in Iowa by all means, but the big battles are yet to come."
On the other hand, I'm notoriously bad as a campaign advisor, because I think like a decent person, not a politician running for President. Totally different world.
On the other hand, one of Romney's problems in the early-going especially was name recognition and his campaign may be banking on the fact that the coverage of the straw poll is a good thing overall. Here at RedState and at other places where people have known Mitt Romney's name for a long time now, it seems kind of silly.
But out there in the rest of the real world, where 80% of the people probably do not know which state he was the governor of last, it might be worth it.
Oh, I think it was a smart strategy all around. Romney can say he won, legitimately, in pulling off a grassroots + money combo, which he'll need in the general.
Giuliani, McCain, et al get to say they didn't compete because they wanted to spend their money on a modern electoral structure, rather than a pre-2000 electoral strategy.
Whoever comes in second gets helped tremendously for being underfunded and still making it competitive, unless Romney really blows everyone out of the water.
Based on a few informal conversations I've had in the past month, I'm willing to bet that about a third to half of the people who are eligible voters *in Massachusetts* do not know that Mitt Romney is running for president. They haven't even opened their eyes when it comes to who the next president is going to be; it's completely off their radar screen. Tens of millions of people in this country simply do not care about politics at all until the last month of the campaign. Romney may be trying to shake a few people up and at least gain a toe-hold in terms of name recognition.
It's so surprising to say that when everyone here at RedState spends so much time agonizing over politics, but it's true, at least if my informal conversations are any indication: a solid majority of people in this country have only the foggiest idea of what is going on with Presidential politics at this point, and they haven't devoted the synapses to it yet.
What if Romney sat it out and Ron Paul won?
I agree with the basic premise though - the whole thing is ridiculous and a huge waste of resources and energy.
Yes, how embarrassing for the Republican Party if a candidate who would cut spending, cut taxes, secure the borders, limit illegal immigration, protect the unborn, defend the Second Amendment, respect the free market, and revere the Constitution won a straw poll of grassroots voters.
We couldn't have that, it might make our other candidates look bad by comparison. It would be even worse because he's on the same side of the Iraq war question as the great majority of the American people, which means he actually has a chance to win the general election, and then we would have to deliver everything he's promised.
then it probably wouldn't be scary.
In fact, some people will tell you that a candidate just like you described IS going to win today.
Disclaimer: Leaning toward Romney, though interested in Fred and Newt (and wishing Huckabee would run for Senate)
drd
So when Ron Paul looses the Republican party nomination, which he will, is he going to mount an independent run using Moveon.org money? Maybe KoS can get his machine behind him ala Ned Lamont.
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None of the Above !
After giving that nightmare scenario in another thread, I Guess there's this lineup:
Thompson (R)
Clinton (D)
Paul (I)
Bloomberg (I)
Just think of how many ways the pacifist left gets its votes split!
Neil,
Bloomberg is richer than Mitt as far as I know, and he would attract very little support, well outside of Jockeys that he towers over. He also has problems with sexual harassment charges in the recent past. If he self funds, sure Ross Perot redux bit again, but that's about it.
Maybe Bloomberg will finance Raphie boy for his run.
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None of the Above !
What, did TX-17 used to get $500 million worth of earmarks in your average appropriations bill? Was the fund for marketing wild American shrimp "slashed" to its current $8 million level under his watch?
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This kind of liberty is, indeed, but another name for justice; ascertained by wise laws, and secured by well-constructed institutions.
-Edmund Burke
Oh of course drd6000 you are correct when you wrote:
"Yes, how embarrassing for the Republican Party if a candidate who would cut spending, cut taxes, secure the borders, limit illegal immigration, protect the unborn, defend the Second Amendment, respect the free market, and revere the Constitution won a straw poll of grassroots voters."
Yes and Mr Paul could find the "truth" about who REALLY brought down the twin towers and finally a president who is serious about the grassy knoll gunman and hey there's always Area 51 right? I can see it now, all his cabinet members wearing tin-foil hats......nice.
Nothing can now be believed which is seen
in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes
suspicious by being put into that polluted
vehicle! Thomas Jefferson
Many people (particularly certain folks here at RedState) get great joy in talking about how "insignificant" the Iowa straw poll is, and Romney's expected win "doesn't really mean anything". Yes, it doesn't necessarily translate into later electoral success in primaries, but it definitely does show the strength of an organization and the appeal of a candidate to some extent.
People like to talk about a "oh, he just spent so much MONEY, that's all this really is". Well, that would certainly help to get Mitt Romney some name recognition and recruit competent staff, but does spending money force someone to volunteer their Saturday and go vote for you? I don't really think so. I know that I wouldn't sacrifice a night of binge drinking on Friday to get up early Saturday and stand up and be counted for a particular candidate just because he was on tv and was going to give me some free BBQ. Bottom line, if Rudy and McCain (and Fred, who keeps delaying an entry) felt like they could compete in Iowa, they wouldn't have pulled out. I don't care how anyone spins this thing - winning the Iowa straw poll will do nothing but help anyone's campaign - especially if it is a convincing win. Romney is probably the most competent executive manager in the field and he is not throwing good money away at something that is "insignificant".
I predicted there would be a post like this at RedState eventually, given the anti-Romney bias that is prevelent here.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
If Romney can only win by vastly outspending his opposition, he's going to have trouble in the general election, because of those horrifically massive subsidies given to Republicans and Democrats in the general election.
The general election is won no policy, and Romney will be able to tout that he has implemented health care, fixed he Utah olympics, etc.
Disclaimer: I'm leaning toward Romney, Fred, or Newt
Given that he proposes what UBL would want us to do and given that he suggested that our policies are why UBL attacked us, I can only assume...
Wonder what UBL would have us do on bridges and taxes? Ask Ron
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
I thought he wanted us to get bogged down in an endless conflict where he could bleed us and our treasury dry. I guess not...
began when Eve bit the apple. The US sans Paul, chooses to win the conflict till Jesus comes. The defict is shrinking and is insignificant.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
People that support Rudy, Fred, and McInsane are downplaying the significance because they can't compete in the Straw Poll. If they had a shot to win it then they'd build it up as significant. Of course it is significant as a contest to get your name out there and build momentum. If Paul, Tancredo, Huckabee, Brownback, or Tommy Thompson can even have a strong second they could really use it to their advantage to become possibly viable.
I think a strong second for Ron Paul especially could be a sign of a strong second tier emerging with he, Brownback, and Huckabee looking decent.
are anathema in the GOP and among the vast majority of Americans. He is naive to the extreme.
Like all the Democrats.
he is now and will remain below the bottom tier in the GOP.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
I think there is a significant voice to skepticism about how this administration has handled foreign policy. Not just from Paul but from numerous conservative thinkers like William F. Buckley, Pat Buchanan, George Will, Tucker Carlson, and Bob Novak to name a few. Plus one can't deny Paul's internet popularity. There are people that he does resonate with it seems and there seems to be a silent minority or majority in the party that aren't getting a voice from any other candidate which is why "undecided" leads the republican field.
everything after that was a waste of bandwidth.
Ron Paul resonates with nuts, most of which are not even registered to vote. The rest are not old enough to vote, or else are ineliglible to vote due to mental incompetence.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
..then Rudy, McCain, and Fred did the right thing as none of them really are hurting as far as name recognition. I believe that Mitt has a shot at the nomination and his taking part in the straw poll is more about him trying to positively effect those idiots who hold his mormon and Massachusetts associations against him.
Nothing can now be believed which is seen
in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes
suspicious by being put into that polluted
vehicle! Thomas Jefferson
Does anyone know when we will get Ames results?
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This kind of liberty is, indeed, but another name for justice; ascertained by wise laws, and secured by well-constructed institutions.
-Edmund Burke
Leon,
CSPAN said after 8 PM, but I may have misread the time zone, they are what +1 to Iowa.
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None of the Above !
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This kind of liberty is, indeed, but another name for justice; ascertained by wise laws, and secured by well-constructed institutions.
-Edmund Burke
The Iowa caucuses are only five months away, so saying it's "more than a year" before we elect the president is missing the point.
After the Iowa caucuses, the great majority of the delegates to the national conventions will be decided in a three-week period ending on February 5th.
The Iowa Straw Poll is getting a lot of coverage because it's big news -- the first real test of the nominating season, and the first time the general public starts to pay attention.
The real question of the day should be, "Why are Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson ignoring the Iowa Straw Poll? Are their campaigns weaker than they appear, or has Iowa lost its past significance because Florida, New York, and California have all moved up?"
10 - Its only 100 degrees in Ames (104 in Charlotte)
9 - Its an election year (well, its not, but do you notice how reporters and talk radio host guests always explain away outrageous statements by saying its election "season" in all years?)
8 - Most reporters can add and subtract but can't divide and conquer
7 - Most reporters are unimaginative clueless members of the pack
6 - A Mormon escaped from Utah
5 - Hillary is not in Iowa
4 - Ames is a Tsunami free zone
3 - Corn
2 - McCain might explode
1 - The next President of the US is in Iowa
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
Because pay to play measures intensity. For example, if someone parrots the talking points of some unaccomplished non candidate but this person is not willing to put his money where his mouth is, then what you have is soft support for that candidate. Another indication of that is when a candidate has weaker then expected fund raising results. Soft support again.
But when a supporter is willing to get out on a hot day of August (a year before the elections, etc..) to vote for a candidate, then what you have is strong support.
Soft support is fickle and may evaporate at any given time. Strong support is in for the long haul.
It has historically been the first test of the candidates' ability to attract Iowa voters and implement an Iowa grassroots program.
I know a lot of the candidates are not participating because they thought that California and Florida had made Iowa moot, and nobody knows what the heck Fred is thinking right now, but Iowa seems determined to be the momentum-setter, and will move their caucuses back as far as needs be in order to accomplish that. So this isn't exactly the non-story that some candidates would like it to be.
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This kind of liberty is, indeed, but another name for justice; ascertained by wise laws, and secured by well-constructed institutions.
-Edmund Burke