Redstate

Once you get past Rehberg and Racicot, you really get past the point where a candidate starts off as a viable alternative to Baucus. That's not to say that any other candidate can't eventually raise their credibility to that level, but against an incumbent with 65-70% approval ratings, you really need somebody who can present themselves as an alternative from the start; otherwise, people aren't going to listen and your campaign never gets off the ground.

As far as State Senators go, probably the most poised from that level would be ex-Minority Leader Bob Keenan. That name may sound familiar to you; he launched a very late challenge to Conrad Burns in 2006. With only a month of campaigning and lackluster fundraising, he recieved 22% of the vote; not a wholy impressive number, but a decent-sized dent that counts for at least something. Keenan has the ability to launch the kind of statewide campaign that would be needed to knock off Baucus. The only question is how much support could he get in the state from those who currently approve of Baucus, and how quickly could he get that support.

After Keenan, it doesn't really matter. Anybody on the State Senate level would all share the same name: "State Senator". Its not that they are interchangable, but when talking on a statewide level, somebody who doesn't have widespread recognition will need time to establish his identification, and every week it takes for a candidate to do that is another week that solidifies Baucus as an entrenched incumbent.

The Mason Dixon poll from December that showed Baucus as 48% to Rehberg's 44% shows that the iron is hot in Montana; moreso this year than in 2006 or 2002 because, as you've pointed out, its a Presidential year. The quicker a strong challenger like Rehberg, Racicot, or Keenan jumps in the race, the better; the longer the wait, the steeper the uphill battle becomes. Hopefully, John Ensign and the NRSC realize this fact and pressure one of these three to start making moves, if not formally commit, to a statewide run.

He should clobber Blanco.

I'm just putting this here because this seems to be the Jindal part of the thread. I was curious about the Duke comment--did he mean to imply that ethnicity was an issue that Jindal had to overcome? Or his Catholicism? Or simply the fact that he is different from the typical Louisiana politician.

If you believe that Louisiana needs a major political overhaul, then Jindal may be the right man for the job. If I lived there, I would seriously consider voting for him, even though I disagree with him on many specific issues. Unfortunately, I find that not many people share my political views.

that Jindal lost those areas because of his race.

He is different from your typical Louisiana politician. He's smart, he's effective and he's honest.
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"...

...which is to say, "North Louisiana" went for Blanco, which would be the first Democrat they've voted for in forever. Cajun Country went for Blanco because they're too stupid to know better -- and I say that as a Cajun.

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Even those who learn from history are surrounded by those doomed to repeat it.

I just didn't want to say it. I do think Jindal will have to persuade moderates and even liberals that good government is what Louisiana needs. It should be a very, very interesting election. And I wonder if another Dem might not decide to run, given Louisiana's unusual primary system.

Several Ds are considering a run and there will be at least one more besides Blanco. The real question is whether a big name will jump in (see Lt. Gov. Landrieu or Rep. Melancon). They would almost certainly edge out Blanco in the runoff. However, it is somewhat likely that Jindal will break 50% in the jungle primary.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

The Illinois Republican Party is basically just a cheering section for the Illinois Democratic Party right now. The RP is in the middle of a catastrophic collapse -- George Ryan, Jim Ryan, Keyes, Baar-Topinka, Kjellander. The state party has lost nearly all support from local Republican associations, such as the Illinois Young Republicans. If an honest conservative were to run as a third-party candidate here, they'd have a >50% chance of beating whoever the Republicans put up.

And Durbin doesn't represent a district -- he's senior Senator for the state. That's right, the state party can't find someone to run for SENATOR.

The last Republican to run for Senate in IL got trampled severely. OK, so Alan Keyes also ran the most incompetent campaign in the history of Illinois. But the margin of victory has pretty much scared off anyone who will even consider a Senate run here (at least so far). I'd like to see Orin Samuelson or Iron Mike try for Durbin's seat. I think either one could win and both were considering the run when Keyes was selected to run against Obama.

Durbin had an easy campaign last time he was up. His opponent was Durkin (yes nearly the same name) who had NO funding. I don't think I saw 1 television ad for him, only hundreds of ads for Durbin wearing a flannel shirt and leaning on a fence... Durkin still got 38% of the vote.

I don't believe Durbin is really popular in this State and he could be beten by a good candidate, but he's got a HUGE warchest and whoever opposes him will be up against a media blitz. If anyone is brave enough to enter the race, they better have some name recognition and TONS of money lined up. (And PLEASE don't run anyone else with the last name of Ryan!)

Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.

Durbin is beatable. The problem is, the IL RP seems to have neither the inclination nor the competency to do it. As you stated yourself, the party's last Senate campaign was the most incompetent in the history of Illinois, while the one before it had no funding and no media coverage. And I'm just a guy on the street, but the common belief of the conservative voters with which I come in contact is that the state Republicans are working with the state Democrats in a machine system.

Im not sure either could get a vote outside of Jefferson County. Might be interesting if they were running against each other.

On the upside, if Jerry runs for gov, maybe Downard (the first at all credible Republican mayoral candidate we've had in ... nearly forever, as far as I can tell) or someone else would have a reasonable chance at the mayor's office.

Unfortunately for both of them, I suspect that being from Louisville is likely to be a problem, rather than a boon, in the governor's race.