Rasmussen: Thompson on Top
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 — Comments (57) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Look at what the latest Rasmussen dragged in, nationally:
That's 618 likely Republican voters, +/- 4 percent, 95% level of confidence.
Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee score 2% each, with everybody else chucked together polling less than 3%.
Sure, the sample size is less than 1,000; yep, Thompson has yet to run a campaign; there is plenty of self-destruction awfully early.
The Rasmussen story states that "[w]hile Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling." And that person is Fred Thompson. It seems awfully early to talk about a race between Rudy and Fred, but it looks like that is what we'll have to see something from McCain or Romney, or that they will have to find something.
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I'm no gentleman, but at this point, I believe that'll be the winning ticket. (My final judgement will come after we see Thompson's performance as a debater.)
If Thompson gets the nom, he would be very wise to ask Rudy to be his VP. We stand a better chance of winning the WH with Rudy on board.
If Rudy gets the nom, I doubt Fred would be interested in the VP spot. I think Huckabee would be a very good choice for Rudy's VP.
Thompson-Giuliani
Giuliani-Huckabee
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"And here we encounter the seeds of government disaster and collapse — the kind that wrecked ancient Rome and every other civilization that allowed a sociopolitical monster called the welfare state to exist."
Barry Goldwater
I could see Vice President Giuliani as a national cheerleader for the war, which would be tremendous.
Run like Reagan!
But I suspect Rudy would not be inclined to the VP spot. I hope I'm mistaken, but I don't think Rudy likes being second fiddle.
We have a very good field of candidates to choose from - something for every political taste. Barring a total party meltdown (insert dreaded 'I' word here), we stand a fair chance of capturing the WH.
Congress on the other hand....
McCain is out talking to voters; Republicans, like the geniuses of my Party, get snuggly with the donors and forget who votes. That is all that matters. Big Fred and Rudy won't break the tape.
Pat Hickey
It's good stuff, and I'd like to see more of it. I don't know how Giuliani is with that, and I do not know how Thompson will be, but McCain's gets on the news, giving the impression of a candidate talking to the voters.
Let's see what happens.
Let's say an immigration bill passes -- one supported by John McCain but disliked by many conservatives -- it would be interesting to see if McCain tries to explain it to the conservatives honestly or if he pulls a "neener-neener."
if McCain wins any state primary.
He was shaky to begin with, and his stand on immigration is asinine.
We've traded our National Sovereignty for cheap roofing and yardwork.
Both Fred and Rudy show *more* support this poll than the previous (when they were tied at 24). This is also the first poll where Rasmussen has left off Newt as an option.
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(Formerly known as bee) / Internet member since 1987
Member of the Surreality-Based Community
Looks like we'll have some reorganizing for the tier system:
1st Tier: Rudy and Fred
1st and a half tier: Romney and McCain
2nd Tier: Everyone else
of the poll is the declining number of Uncommitteds. The Uncommitted number is 18%, which is the lowest I've seen yet. Finrod makes a good point, but only about the Rasmussen poll. Rudy has only lost about 4 points from other polls, so Fred's growth is primarily from the uncommitted pool.
Which makes the point that the Republicans have not been happy with their choices until now.
Romney - Going. McCain - Gone. It comes down to Fred and Rudy.
Doncheney, I'm voting for a Fred/Rudy show. Fred more closely represents the majority of the Republican party. If Rudy will accept the VP position. Hope it's offered, hope he takes it.
RCP has RG up by 7+ - fairest measurement but still meaningless at this stage.
the FT numbers are a reflection of the new guy always looks good till u ask him some questions; he does debate numero uno; media finds all the holes in his story or people check out what he has ever accomplished.
I, as a RG supporter, think FT has a particularly weaker story than MR, JM. MH and others ... but we will see.
I guarantee you that RG and MR's people have gone through a proctology on every lobbying client FT and his wife ever had ... some of old and recent ones are not pretty for a media and opponents who will focus on the negatives.
FT hasn't really even begun that checkout phase yet and people look at "Arthur Blake" and think that is FT.
remember before RG really got in, and at early stages, he was in high 30's and low 40's. RG got, and continues to get, the ceath by the thousand paper cuts ... so will FT.
this is the money shake out and organizational time.
wait
Fred is riding high now, as well he should be. Rudy got a bump for several weeks after informally getting into the race, and then he began to slowly trend down.
I'm not anti-Fred, I just am not sold on him yet and it will be interesting to see how the media handles him and how he handles the media.
As a final note, as appealing as a Thompson/Rudy ticket might be, it is my opinion that Rudy wouldn't take the VP spot. I'm not sure if Fred would either. To me, a better option would be Rudy/Huckabee. I'm not sure if Huckabee would support Rudy though.
if Reps win Calif, Dems can't win presidency. this is as sure a political fact as u get.
the killer ticket is Rudy / Condi vs. Hillary / ?
on any ticket anytime in this century. Condi, who I was really high on a couple years ago, has botched up State enough so that I hope the only time I ever see her again is at a solo piano concert. It's obviously her strength.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
are a sure bet to lose. It will kill the passion of conservatives, since both support abortion (pro-choice if you prefer). Not sure how Condi feels about gun control, but Rudy is cool, approaching cold, on the subject. Conservatives might vote for the ticket, but reluctantly.
Condi has lost conservative support since she went to State. What is it about State that sucks the intelligence out of people? Is there something in the air, or is it part of their charter, you must now support every anti-american initiative on the planet?
Only Dick Morris wants Condi on the ticket. Except, of course, PTM.
She actually tells a stirring story about how her father protected her family in segregated Alabama by using his personal firearm. Talk about an effective outreach anecdote.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
"The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary .... Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%."
kiss the general election goodbye
Why do you believe F. Thompson can't win? (I'm not a thompson fan but I'm curious as to your thinking).
Because the GOP can only win by sacrificing its principles, didn't you hear? We have to nominate who the "polls" say is the most electable, not the person who we believe is the best nominee for our party.
Donate to Fred Thompson's Campaign right here...you know you want to!
Thomspon is proving that he is the candidate to beat, even BEFORE he annouces officially.
He has the ability to return the GOP to the conservative platform that elected them in the first place and we Reagan conservatives see him as the answer in the GOP that we have not found in Rudi, McCain and Romney.
Though Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback and Huckabee are conservative they cannot win and Thompson can.
A strong candidate with conservative values and policy that can beat the Hildabeast or Obama in 2008!
Ted Kennedy was the landslide favorite to oust Carter in 1980 ... till TK got in and someone asked him questions.
If u look at some of the MR sites they are already savaging FT e.g. AZ for Mitt. The liberal sites are far worse ... they r just not on the radar screen yet.
Rush's replacement was selling FT today till someone got on an asked him if he knew ... and cited three items. The replacement host (don't know his name) said "yes those are the three issues with FT".
Can someone cite me three (3) accomplishments for FT in his public or business career? More to this question ... but let's start with this easy question.
yes I am a RG supporter
he's got the vision. Just read this quote from his speech at the Policy Exchange:
As a rule, people in democratic societies prefer to take care of the business of life. They raise families. They work and they trade. They create wealth and they share it. Above all in free societies, we live by the law – and, at our best, we look after one another, too.
He knows the American people in his bones, because he is one of us. That's a Reaganite passage, but written in Fred's hand. He's got hope when there is despair in the land, but tempers his idealism with realism. Hillary ain't got it. Obama tries to flack it, but he ain't got it. McCain doesn't have it. And neither does Rudy. Mitt might have had it, but its been MBAed out of him.
Yeah, I know it drives you nuts, just like Reagan drove polls nuts when he was in office. But Fred's got it, just like Reagan.
Lastly, I know I've taken that first quote a bit out of context. But adding back in the context after focusing on the gem makes Fred's determination to face our coming crisis with hope, determination, and sheer hutzpah all the more inspiring. One can almost hear Churchill alongside him, "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, sweat, and tears. ... You ask, what is our aim? I can answer in one word. It is victory." And whispering in his ear Reagan "What's my plan? My plan is to win."
In national polls, Mitt has consistently been third or fourth, and his numbers are usually less than 10%. McCain is usually second or third, and he has been polling just behind Rudy in many cases. McCain is clearly on a downward trend, Mitt is on an upward trend. In addition, Mitt is the favorite to win the first two primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain is going to drop out quickly, and it will be a three man race - it's going to get interesting.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
While Fred Thompson and his supporters should be pleased at having this level of support without having yet spent a dime, let's not forget that the nomination process is a series of state votes and not a national election. Right now, Romney leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can win both of those, he is the nominee of the party. Of course, there is still plenty of time for Thompson and Giuliani to position themselves for victories in both states.
Right now, Romney leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can win both of those, he is the nominee of the party.
That's no lock. Think Reagan v. Ford 76, only Giuliani won't have the incumbency advantage.
Delegate counts just might matter this year a LOT.
Run like Reagan!
I'm not so sure this time around. One of the mistakes Shooflyguy makes is that with the exceptions of Iowa and New Hampshire, this election cycle will look pretty much like to national elections. We get the two preliminary events and then BLAM! 25% of the vote happens in a two week period. It's part of what is driving the money madness. I think in the race to be "relevant" to the primary season, states are invalidating the most useful thing about our historical primary process: time on the campaign trail so that flash in the pans get weeded out.
In most years, yes I'd agree, too, but in most years we've had the annointed guy whose turn it was. VP Cheney's not running changed that though, fortunately.
Run like Reagan!
The only reason Romney is doing well in those states is the fact he's spent 4 million there, and no one else hasn't. It's easy to be the only supermarket in town until WalMart shows up.
Donate to Fred Thompson's Campaign right here...you know you want to!
being kicked off the Iraq Study group will play? Apparently he didn't show up for any of the meetings and Tom Kaine kicked him off the group. That seems to show a fundamental unwillingness to take the opportunity to learn something about the situation and take the opportunity to shape the final report.
The ISG was a fait accompli and generally contributed nothing to subject. It was everybit the joke that the 911 Commission turned out to be, although not as dangerous in it's recommendations which thankfully were ignored from the outset.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Isn't it possible that Rudy may have had some influence with the commission if he had chosen to contribute, rather than opting out due to paid speaking gigs?
Rudy has more common sense than Kaine.
The Iraq Study Group is an obvious pre-cursor to throwing our Iraqi allies under the bus the same way we threw our Vietnamese allies under the bus at the end of that war. Rudy steering clear of it because he understands what is at stake is just about the only place where I see him exercising that good judgement. And it's the only thing that makes him marginally palatable to most conservative Republicans.
Bob Frazier-
I don't think Thompson can win because he is GWB redux. Another conservative, southern white male. Thanks to Karl Rove, the Republican party has become a regional party and has lost a lot of national appeal. The Republican party needs to once again be a national party and be competitive outside of the South and the West. Rudy makes our party competitive again.
George W. Bush could not win re-election next year, and so a clone could not win. That makes sense.
What about Fred, besides his sex and region, makes him a George W. redux?
The Democratic candidate will likely win most of the northeast while the Republican will likely take the deep south. If we abandon the south by selecting a candidate who has rejected their values, we lose the election.
And what of the west? It's where Thompson has earned his most recent paychecks.
Don't even bother asking these people question/to defend their point of view. It isn't worth it...really.
They believe that the only path to victory is to nominate the most liberal person we possibly can. It's how you get "swing voters" and "independents" in their mind. They could give a lick about the base and social conservatives - they'll "fall in line," they hope.
Yes, Fred Thompson is conservative and from the south...so what?
Donate to Fred Thompson's Campaign right here...you know you want to!
I support Fred's candidacy, but I disagree with those who think he is a typical southern conservative. Fred is right of center, but he is not as conservative as Jeff Sessions or Jim Demint. Some people will probably object to my opinion that Fred does have some of the independent streak in him like John McCain. The difference is that Fred has alienated the conservative base of the Republican Party much less than McCain. I think that this streak of independence toward local and state instead of national laws will appeal to independent and swing voters. We need to have those voters along with the conservative base to win in 2008.
"We should scrap this “comprehensive” immigration bill and the whole debate until the government can show the American people that we have secured the borders -- or at least made great headway."
Fred Thompson
Bob Frazier-
I don't think Thompson can win because he is GWB redux. Another conservative, southern white male. Thanks to Karl Rove, the Republican party has become a regional party and has lost a lot of national appeal. The Republican party needs to once again be a national party and be competitive outside of the South and the West. Rudy makes our party competitive again.
Rudy goes from 24 to 27, and Fred from 24 to 28.
The latest Rasmussen dropped Gingrich. This and slight declines in for Mitt and Mccain, have helped Rudy and especially Fred.
I am also excited about a potentially good candidate joining the race, but at the risk of saying the obvious, I personally am moving slowly with his candidacy.
I will listen and evaluate, with openness and much interest; but I don't want to spring on his candidacy just because I am not thrilled with any of the other candidates.
Peter R - Praetorium.org
that Romney (based on his early leg work in Iowa / NH) or Fred will win the GOP nomination.
Frankly, I think Mike Huckabee is a great candidate as well, but I think that Fred sucks all the oxygen out of this race.
Newt has too much baggage, but I'd love to see him in the administration knocking heads somewhere.
Romney or Fred.
I'll vote conservative in the primary and Republican in the General. Despite pleas (well pleas is too strong) from supporters of both Thompson and Romney, I really would like to see them head to head in a debate before I make a decision on who to back although being a "Fred Head" does have a nice ring to it.
Romney or Fred.
Turning away from Newt due to baggage
is a mistaken notion. Rush, and I am sure others, have made a great point that any conservative candidate will always have baggage.
The Dems and the MSM will see to it, and if there is nothing obvious, they will make it up, i.e. forged documents, etc.
I have not entirely written Newt off, but he has been making serious motions toward the Left by public meetings with Hillary on health care and, has been pointed out here, tacking to the Left with statements like Environmental Conservation.
Such maneuvers raise serious red flags for me. That is why I would be very skeptical of him if he joined the race. I don't worry about baggage unless it is something genuine.
Peter R - Praetorium.org
I was initially excited about a Newt run, the guy is very smart, but I too noticed the worrying turn to the left.
Turning early to the left in the primaries is a bad sign.
I've also decided that something– Conservatism is a red flag. In Newt’s case he wanted Green-Conservatism. I’m not sure why he felt he had to validate the loony enviro-fringe’s position. With George Bush we got Compassionate-Conservatism which we found out later meant that “Ted Kennedy writes my Domestic policy”-Conservatism. (Examples being “No dollar left unspent” aka “No Child Left behind” and “Ali Ali Amnesty Free”, aka “Immigration Reform”.)
That said I will give GW credit on Taxes and Foreign policy.
I too will vote Conservative in the primary and for the Republican in the general election. Right now, I'm backing Sen. Thompson, but if the Mayor wins, I'll be forced to vote for him and hope he means it about Judges.
...Thompson/Romney for the ticket and Giuliani for Sec of State?
Winning the early states DOES still matter b/c primary voters are the ones that pay attention. That could change, naturally -and this IS an unprecedented GOP primary race.
Still, if Giuliani isn't at the top, I don't think he'll be interested in the Veep slot. BUT, I would LOVE to see him become Sec of State. By all accounts, he's the kind of guy that we need to send over there to kick some butt at the State Department. Bunch o' traitorous nancy boys.
I was about to say would be the one place where I would trust him because it deals with the GWOT. But then I realized that some of our other enemies keep trying to use international treaties to undermine our constitutional rights, and Rudy could do just as much damage to them there as he could as President. So no, not even Rudy at State. Although if they can give him Point Man on the GWOT Briefings as an official position, go to it!
Now if he wants to drive that home, Fred will choose Steele as his running mate. What a pair that would make.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
Thompson is now a front-runner with a very limited ground game. More than Rudy, he needs to do well in either Iowa or New Hampshire (i.e. win or place). Well organized candidates like Romney and McCain now have an opportunity to exceed expectations. Thompson will face three well organized opponents. One way or the other, Giuliani likely is going to be in the hunt at the end. I do think this gives McCain and Romney more running room-even if they, like any candidate, would prefer to be on top.
This is going to be a great race and the GOP nominee will be a tested and prepared candidate.
delusion is to keep thinking that Hillary is not an incredibly formidable opponent.
look and listen to her at today's debate. Her demeanor today was very powerful, confident and in complete control.
she is clearly excercising, watching her weight and subtly changing her phsyical appearance in a positive manner.
if I didn't know how very dangerous she is, I would vote for her.
Rush is right ... 80% she is next President
Well, Gentlemen, looks like a Thompson-Rudy ticket will get the job done in 2008, or the other way around. What say you?