Revenge Of The Sore Losers
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Kneel Before Zod | Let's You And Him Fight | Rooting For Injuries — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
One of the detriments of having a long, drawn out primary is the fact that at some point, one side is going to end up losing. That side will be disappointed. It will pout. It will sulk. And when the general election comes around, that side may not vote or may back the candidate of the other party:
A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
These conclusions are based on an analysis of Democratic voters' responses to separate voting questions in March 7-22 Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. In each day's survey, respondents are asked for their general election preferences in McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama pairings. Democratic voters are then asked whom they support for their party's nomination.
[. . .]
As would be expected, almost all Democratic voters who say they support Obama for their party's nomination also say they would vote for him in a general election matchup against McCain. But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain. This suggests that some Clinton supporters are so strongly opposed to Obama (or so loyal to Clinton) that they would go so far as to vote for the "other" party's candidate next November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
The results follow the same pattern, but not to quite the same extent, when the relationship between Democratic support and a general election matchup between Clinton and McCain is examined.
Check out the graphs. And bear in mind that these are the numbers in late March. Imagine what they will be like in June, after Puerto Rico has had a chance to vote.
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Revenge Of The Sore Losers 4 Comments (0 topical, 4 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
The split in the Democratic party is one of personalities, not of political opinion. The Dems will have months to convince the other side that even though the nominee wasn't their candidate...the nominee is still the "anti-GOP" -- and the Dems ARE united on that. Also, the Dem nominee will have survived some nasty political warfare and will come into the general election very, very strong and battle experienced.
In contrast, McCain still needs to shore up his base, many of whom have philosophical and political differences with McCain which are substantial. A good Veep pick is the most important campaign decision McCain can make.
Think about what we saw in Ohio. Clinton won big in more rural areas, industrialized, blue-collar places. Obama's support comes virtually entirely from rich liberal elites in urban centers, college kiddies, and the black community. Obama's voters are natural Democrats, and any alienation on their part will probably result in less "damage" - mostly because the voters in question will simply disappear. College kiddies just won't show up, blacks may sit out as a protest of sorts. They are not likely to vote for McCain.
On the other hand, Clinton is getting support from any number of groups that fell nicely into the category of "Reagan Democrat." These are the folks who, while Democrats, are much more to the center-left rather than the fringe. They have a more natural willingness to go with the other guy, especially when the other guy is seen favorably. McCain stands to convert some of these more conservative Democrats that Hillary is winning in places like southern Ohio, rural Pennsylvania, etc. into Republican votes. Thus, Clinton fans will be doubly hurtful to Obama - they will not simply sit out but will actively contribute a vote to the opposition.
I have to admit that I am one of those 28% who back Clinton. There are two reasons for this: 1) Obama has charisma but cannot deliver (why hasn’t he proposed legislation to pull out of Iraq if he’s so against it – it’s fully in a Senator’s rights), 2) I am a disenfranchised Democratic voter (I’m from Florida – a swing state). I really am leaning Republican in the hopes that Howard Dean’s punishment of the people (who’s voting was set by the Republicans) will result in the Dems loosing and him getting fired. I also don’t like the fact that the media has neglected to mention the blatantly racist voting – huge percentages of black people are voting for Obama, far more than is reasonable in his addressing their “issues.” I really just want to punish Obama for lying and running a blatantly racist campaign.
I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers. Even assuming that the numbers themselves are accurate and weighted correctly, at the moment it is a LOT of rhetoric during a frenzied primary campaign.
Just like the Youth Vote, the people replying to the pollsters that they will switch sides are getting more play than their electoral value would deserve.
It is possible that some of them may stay home in November, but I see it as INCREDIBLY unlikely that anyone so devoted to either Clinton or Obama would EVER vote for McCain, even as a protest. There may be a few, to be sure, but not in enough numbers to matter.
Hopefully, the ones who do so are in Florida, NY, Cali, Ohio, and Michigan.....
FAR more likely that the Dems will have the same problem the Repubs will have....people will just stay home because they're not excited about their party's choice of candidate. The difference is, the Dems don't tend to have the real strength of will to stand behind their principles, so a heavy-duty Clinton supporter is still likely to come out and vote for Obama (and vice-versa) in November just to keep the "Rethugs" out....whereas the conservatives WILL stay home....