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The very things that make you think he's going to pull in independents, are going to demotivate Republicans when push comes to shove.

For crying out loud, even if a third party anti-abortion candidate didn't run, the DNC would pound key states with ads showing Giuliani repeating his most pro-abortion statements, including his support for taxpayer-funded abortions.

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There will be a pro-life third party candidate if Rudy wins.

The odds are not in favor of such a third party.

Say that Rudy pulls out a victory by February 5th.

There's a number of states that require party petitions to be in within 2 months of February 5th. Arizona requires 20K petitions by March, for example.

Plus, Ohio's party petition deadline is in November 2007. Pennsylvania requires 27K signatures to get on as an independent. Oklahoma is impossible for an independent, as is Texas, as is North Carolina, as is Michigan.

So right there, you can easily throw out 94 EV. You can throw out 32 more if you consider the daunting tasks in Illinois and Indiana.

Here's a few reasons why a pro-life third party is out the window right now

1) Third parties typically peak early and decline hard. So any peak in May would decline as people started to seriously consider the choices.
2) People do not support hopeless third party candidacies. Only a small sliver of Americans would go for such a candidacy.
3) There is no organized pro-life third party right now.

The Constitution Party is practically in shambles. The California party is aiming to kick out a bunch of members for "treasonous activities" (their words). A bunch of state parties have disassociated from the national party over Abortion (between more moderate pro-lifers and the more absolutist pro-lifers). Not to mention that the Constitution Party did not ever support the GWOT front in Iraq.

It is very hard to get a third party on the ballot, much less in the White House. That is not a mistake.

Ultimately, if the election is Rudy/Hillary, a bunch of people will hold their noses and vote for the guy who won't surrender us to Islamic extremism and who won't raise taxes.

Them's the breaks.

This is not a field with a clear frontrunner or a clear person who deserves support.

... and the third Clinton term will reign...n/t

All it'll take is the right shifts in a couple states to throw the election.

Taking our base for granted when going after the 'independents' is suicidal as a party.

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Many pro-lifers WILL either stay home or vote 3rd party, and with the razor-thin margins these days, it won't take much to tip the scales. Social conservatives will not stand for a social liberal GOP candidate. Your 2nd sentence is right on target.

I think those predicting doom if Rudy wins are just talking their own book (stock trading term). The base is who votes in primaries. If Rudy wins the nomination, how exactly could that alienate the base?

Molon Labe!

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If you want to kid yourself and think that any one faction of our party is optional when it comes to holding together our Electoral College Majority, go ahead and take that chance.

But I don't think it's a good idea.

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alienating small government conservatives. President Bush has stuck a thumb in their eye. And that is probably why he only got 51% and not a more Reaganite 55+%.

If Rs want to try that strategy again, I think it is highly likely that a candidate whose main focus is social conservatism will lose pretty handily in a repeat of the 2006 map instead of the 2004 map.

Giuliani isn't perfect (none of them are), but he's an ally to conservatives not an enemy. If conservatives can't understand the difference between having Hillary be President and Rudy be President, then they deserve to Nader themselves and receive Justice Tribe and Justice Bill Clinton for their troubles.

______________________________________
Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana

...social conservatives will "stay home" if a candidate that ignores their interests is on the ballot. It is commonly accepted that GWB almost lost in 2000 due to reluctance of the social conservatives to vote for him because of skepticism of his SoCon credentials (see article archive http://www.truthout.org/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/20/737). It can and will happen again.

If it turned out to *be* true, then why on earth is the Republican party wasting their time supporting social conservative causes? If the social conservatives totally refuse to support a Republican who, despite his socially moderate leanings, is still easily an order of magnitude better than the Democrat they'd be stuck with otherwise, then what use are they to the rest of the party?

If what you say really *is* true, then the Republican party would be better off giving up on the social conservatives right now and cut their losses, because that would mean the Big Tent has effectively collapsed. By eliminating the social agenda that has been building up for the last 20 or so years, we'd have a pretty good chance, IMHO, of winning back a lot of the independants and small government social moderates and liberals who have defected to the Democrats in that timeframe.

I'm really hoping that *isn't* really true, because frankly, if Rudy is nominated (and I think there's a pretty good chance he will be), and the social conservatives *do* stay home and let someone like Hilary win, it's probably going to split the Republican party for good.

Hillary and really she will no doubt be expanding and financing abortion and we all lose. If the only issue's that you fault this candidate on are his abortion and guns stance you will soon find that having Hillary as President will increase the things you will come to find important.

The bottom line is all the social issue's in the world won't mean a thing if we don't win this war and I am not talking about Iraq i am referencing the whole of the WOT.

Guiliani has surrounded himself with people who are interested in seating federalist judges and Hillary well I guess she would seat 2 or 3 more Ginsberg's each and every one coming from the belly of the ACLU because we all know that the abortion debate will be settled in the Supreme Court not by the President of the United States, right?

This has got to be about more than emotion and deeply held beliefs because the options are just not there for that type of race this time around but that is the beauty of America you can go vote on how you feel as opposed to emotionally detaching and intellectually looking at the options on the table. I know I have voted for whom I felt was the "lesser" of two evils before and I know I will again.

I can only pray that if Rudy does win the nomination that everyone to the right of independent can get on board to ensure that we do not have to endure a Hillary Clinton Presidency.

I know that day after the election in 06 when Dem's won the Congress I felt sick and I can only imagine my reaction to waking up and finding Hillary Clinton is now running this wonderful country and the fine Military that she turned against this week.

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

and it's in polls of Republicans that he seems to consistently be leading in.

So your point is what? That one day you hope to have opinion follow your pessimism out so you look farsighted?

If so let me refer you to many a post on the front page proclaiming the end of his campaign and a lot more diaries that are worth as much.

Republicans so far seem willing to look at the 80% they agree with him on, the other 20% many have accepted his assurances and willingness to go to them to say I'm not going to fight against you even though my own personal beliefs are "X".

Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin

I hope if it comes down to Rudy and Hillary that the national security issue weighs over abortion for many in the base. Rudy can bring over some moderate Dems to replace the ones that either stays home or would waste their votes on a 3rd party candidate.

Rudy is the best potential candidate from either party to break the straight party line voter and he is definately on our side of the aisle on almost every issue.

but he could pull in a bunch of independents.

"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle

the DNC would pound key states with ads showing Giuliani repeating his most pro-abortion statements, including his support for taxpayer-funded abortions

What's that, the DNC's Secret Plan to defeat the Democratic nominee?

Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.

My understanding was that Democratic demoralizing efforts re: Gov. Bush and drunk driving were what brought VP Gore so tantalizingly close to the Presidency back in 2000.

I just think that hammering our traditional money issues (or wedge issues as Democrats call anything they're bad on) where Giuliani is wrong, might demoralize enough of our voters to shift some swing states.

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that drunk driving charge was a November Surprise, sprung at the final minute, when it was too late to be responded to, and it DID almost tip the scales.

Almost the entire 5% undecided went to Gore, while it would naturally be expected to split 50-50 or even go more favorably to the challenger when a sitting VP is on the ticket. That is tradition -- but their little dirty trick almost pulled it off!

Obviously they'd have to be careful, targetting markets where pro-abortion isn't going to risk peeling away Ds as much as it might make Rs stay home, heh.

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its out there. The drunk driving charge came out of blue sky shocking everyone. It was the shock impact that did the damage. Rudy, on the other hand, is known to be more liberal on several issues.

NOW, if in the final week they suddenly find video of Rudy dressed up in drag, THAT might have an impact. But that will never happen...

have stated "We don't trust him."

Since when does Redstate condone the contextual twisting of quotes?

Or is it only when it's against Rudy that it's fair game?

Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin

Senators and Congressmen, which is more than some of the purity brigade can say.

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