Second Banana: The Opportunities For Mischief
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | The Best Democratic Primary EVER — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
So we have this result of polling done to gauge whether more Democrats want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. The result may surprise people:
As Barack Obama inches closer to formally wrapping up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Democrats who want Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race has declined. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 32% of Democrats now think Clinton should withdraw from the race. That's down from 38% who wanted her to exit the race just ten days ago. A month ago, 34% thought she should leave the race.
Among all voters, including Republicans and unaffiliated voters, 33% now say Clinton should leave the race. An earlier survey found that 29% of Democrats say she should run an Independent campaign for the White House. Clinton supporters are evenly divided on the question.
As for Barack Obama, 23% Democrats say he should drop out. That number has remained quite consistent through all surveys on the topic.
Wow. Obama has all but wrapped up the Democratic Presidential nomination and the Hillary-should-drop-out faction is larger than the Obama-should-drop-out-faction by only 9 percentage points? The mind reels.
Nothing has happened since yesterday to change my belief that having Hillary as a Vice Presidential nominee would be a catastrophically bad move for Obama to make. Given all of the negatives that Hillary brings to the ticket, the very few positives that she would bring to it and the fact that her comments yesterday have caused some to wonder whether she reads obituaries with avid interest to see whether a certain Senator from Illinois is listed amongst them, it seems clear that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will not be the best of buddies on the fall campaign trail and that she will not bring all that much value to the ticket. Yes, I am aware of the argument that she might help Obama unify the party after what has been (and continues to be!) a tough and bloody contest. But if the Democrats do not unify by themselves at the end of all of this in what is supposedly a tremendously promising Democratic year then they will richly deserve to lose. And it shouldn't take Hillary Clinton to help bring about unity.
Still, one cannot ignore the poll results indicating that more and more people want her to stay in through the end. And given the bad blood that has developed in the Obama campaign, any prospect that Hillary Clinton will continue to stay in the race will be an unwelcome one in the Obama campaign.
And that is where the opportunity for mischief referenced in the title comes in.
Read on . . .
Most people seem to think that the Vice Presidential selection process begins and ends with the Presidential nominee vetting candidates and making a decision. Not so! A Vice Presidential nominee will be selected by the presumptive Presidential nominee but for that candidate to become the nominee, he or she will have to be approved by the roll call of the delegates at the convention, just like the Presidential nominee.
And more than one candidate can be nominated for the Vice Presidency.
You see where I am going with this? If not, read this. Surely, there has to be some way that Republicans can engineer getting Hillary Clinton nominated at the Democratic National Convention as Vice President. Perhaps her husband can do it. Perhaps Joe Lieberman--who is not a superdelegate because of his support for Senator John McCain, but presumably will still be allowed in Denver--can do it. Perhaps Hillary can throw her own hat in the ring and force a vote even if Obama chooses someone else.
This is a can't-lose situation for Republicans. If Hillary wins, Obama will be seen as unable to control his own convention--an expression of weakness that will be fatal in the fall by itself. Even if it isn't, the continued questions over how well Obama and Hillary will be able to work together if they are elected will cause the campaign to be off message many more times than it isn't. And if Hillary loses, her supporters outrage will be refreshed and will stay fresh during the fall, which may well serve to deprive Obama of the votes that he will need to win what may very well be a close race.
Politics ain't beanbag and it is supposed to be fun. For Republicans, I can't imagine a more fun activity. Given the bad blood that remains on the Democratic side, getting Hillary Clinton nominated for the Vice Presidency against Barack Obama's will will serve as a tremendously diverting activity. And it may well be easier than many people think.
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Second Banana: The Opportunities For Mischief 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Bob Beckel is one of the most amusing Democratic pundits out there. He knows all the Democratic rules (having written many of them), he knows where the bodies are buried, he's pretty open about what he thinks, and he's got a sense of humor. I thought there was no way in heck that Obama would wind up with Hillary on his ticket until looking at Beckel's article. Then it occurred to me that if the Clintons chose to really push it, they probably could force her onto the ticket.
Who would have thought the Democratic race would prove to be so interesting this year?! Of course, I'm laughing now.... I won't be laughing if either of these deeply flawed, inexperienced, and hopelessly misguided people get to move into the White House. Sen. McCain has some positions that drive me bats, but he simply has to outcampaign Sen. Obama because his losing this race would be a disaster of incomparable scope. I didn't think anyone was as ill-prepared to be president as Jimmy Carter, but Sen. Obama is sure close.
"if either of these deeply flawed, inexperienced, and hopelessly misguided people get to move into the White House."
Take away "inexperienced" and you're also talking about McCain.
An ill-prepared president is what we are going to get.
After Hillary's latest allusion to assassination, Obama would be absolutely crazy to put her on the ticket. That alone would be proof that Obama can be rolled by a determined opponent, which is all the proof anyone needs that he shouldn't be Commander-in-Chief.
As Maureen Dowd said in her column today, Hillary has let slip why she's staying in the race: S**t happens. It happened to Bobby Kennedy in June. And it could happen to Obama, who knows.
You don't reward somebody who waits for such a thing with the opportunity to have your job.
To unify the Dem party, there are other women he could pick. There are political leaders who have long been associated with the Clintons whom he could pick.
If Obama has a majority of both pledged delegates and superdelegates that are committed to him, would that majority still hold true on a convention floor vote for the VP. If Obama says "This is who I want as my VP" and he has the votes to make it happen, how would Clinton have a shot?
Once. The super-delegates don't even have that restriction. Assuming that Obama carries the nomination - which is in fact an assumption* - the delegates are free to do whatever they choose. Most pledged delegates will, of course, honor their candidate's choice.
Note the word "most," which is not semantically equivalent to the phrase "enough to guarantee the nominee's choice." :)
Moe Lane
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
*McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee; he has enough guaranteed delegates to win on the first ballot. Even if Obama gets whatever Magic Number that the Democrats decide upon, he will still only be the assumed Democratic nominee; at this point, he cannot get enough guaranteed delegates to win on the first ballot.
and how much political capital they have and are willing to invest in order to make Hillary the VP. It also depends on who forces the vote. If Screamin'Howard Dean or some other party elder forces the vote, then the delegates will probably be given a list of eligible candidates who they can vote for. Because HRC has the most delegates after Obama, she stands the best chance of winning the spot, unless a lot of her delegates were originally supporters of Edwards/Kucinich/Biden/Dodd etc.
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"That's funny, because I can see him eating her liver with some falafel and a nice hot tea." - kyle8
for VP if she (or someone else) forces a vote on the topic because she has more delegates than anyone else. She'll doom Obama because all of his talk about ending divisive politics and "hope we change for" will effectively be canceled out because HRC has to be one of the most divisive figures of modern American politics.
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"That's funny, because I can see him eating her liver with some falafel and a nice hot tea." - kyle8