SEN-MA: Ogonowski (R) is in, can he knock Kerry (D) out?
The Republicans Finally Get a Top Choice Candidate
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (27) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In 2008, the Senate matchups are pretty heavily weighted toward the Democrats. As a fan of the Ds "50 state strategy," the announcement of LTC Ogonowski that he is running against Kerry is great news indeed. The Rs have failed to recruit an A list candidate in AR, WV, SD, MT, or several other states. So far, LA and NJ have garnered the best R candidates. Now MA, with its small bench, has produced a top recruit.
Although Ogonowski is still a long shot, he has the right combination of moderate stances, Change Washington message, and military background to compete on unfriendly ground. SUSA's most recent Senate approval numbers show Kerry at 52-43. In any other state, that would be a sign of borderline competitive race. And while most Rs lose handily in head-to-head Presidential numbers, McCain leads Obama (50-45) and trails Clinton narrowly (45-49). If there are some coattails in otherwise blue states in November, perhaps Ogonowski could pull off a big upset.
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SEN-MA: Ogonowski (R) is in, can he knock Kerry (D) out? 27 Comments (0 topical, 27 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I doubt it, but he could make Kerry squirm. I was listening to him this morning on the radio. He's a good guy and a good Republican, but even he has to water down his message if he wants to win in Massachusetts. If he does run and do well, he'll just be considered another convictionless empty suit Republican like Romney. It's sad really. It sucks up here.
He's focusing on immigration, energy, ethics, responsiveness, taxes and spending. Pretty neutral stuff. Sooner or later, he's going to have to come down on some wedge issues.
or Senator Ogonowski (R-MA). Heck, I'd even take Senator 1994 Romney (R-MA). If there were more Rs from places like MA, Rs would have 60 seats and 45 conservatives. That would be much better than the current 40 conservatives and 49 Rs.
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IMO, we're more likely to see Governor Romney (R-MI), than we are to see Romney go to the Senate. Besides, eh's burned all electability he's ever had in Mass by openly being conservative.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
All I said is that I'd like to see it, not that it was going to happen. I think a GOV Romney (R-MI) or even SEN Romney (R-MI) would be great.
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To Michigan?
Or is everyone as confused as I am about whether we're dicussing MI or MA? Darn states with their similar abbreviations and equally plausible ties to the Romney family!
in all seriousness, Michigan just relected Granholm in 06, so 2 years would be plenty of time to establish a Michigan residence-Michigan law only requires one year of residency.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
He grew up there. His businessman background would be good to run on there.
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GOV or SEN Ted Nugent would be more fun. Its probably also more likely.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
barring the improbable from Senator Kerry.
And wherever men are fighting against barbarism, tyranny, and massacre, for freedom, law, and honour, let them remember that the fame of their deeds, even though they may be exterminated, may perhaps be celebrated as long as the world rolls round. ~ Winston Churchill
Much as he'd probably have appreciated the promotion, I'm pretty sure Ogonowski left the Air Force as a Lieutenant Colonel (LTC), not a Colonel (Col).
It should also be noted that this sets-up a likely primary with Jeff Beatty - a former Delta Force officer and FBI agent - on the Republican side.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
I'm used to using Colonel even for LTCs in normal parlance. But in written form, I should be more careful.
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I think it's impossible to judge just how this will play out in MA this far out. Jean Francois really isn't all that popular here, but he's got lots and lots of Mamma-T's cash to toss around.
The wild-card is what happens in the state (ahem, Commonwealth) over the next couple of months with regard to the economy - and who gets tagged with the problems. Foreclosures are ramping up-up-up and are hitting the burbs particularly hard, job growth is (guffaw!) and everyone I know is looking on Monster.com and Realtor.com - to the point that I'm starting to think about starting a "RedState Moving Company" business...
Problem is, this being Massachusetts I highly doubt the all-Democrat government will get stuck holding the bag as it's all-too easy to continue to blame George Bush for all the problems of the world (and the Commonwealth) - and if that's the case we could run whomever we want for whatever office and it won't matter - just tagging an (R) after their name will doom them to the mid-30's on Election Day.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
First, he will help put R ideas out into the field of play. That's important in unified D states.
Second, he could get Kerry to spend some of his $10M+ bank he's got. That would be good.
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I don't disagree with that at all. I was only addressing your "Title" question - as in, can he knock Kerry out - not the merits of a top-tier candidate for a borderline-unwinable seat, which are many.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
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Probably not. But I'm all for sending up credible candidates even in deep blue states to serve as "public service announcements" about exactly what kind of lunacy the folks they elected are engaged in. Massachusetts might not be the most conducive place - but isn't time someone took Kerry to task up there for his dismal service to his state (and country)?
That's how you start the turnaround - until people are "forced" to look at the situation, they will keep assuming things are fine with the guys they keep re-electing. We need someone who doesn't look like a nobody we grabbed off the street to start talking about the issues in hopes of engaging a few people. And then repeat that over a few cycles. If we just give up on places totally we will never have any chance even in the most favorable of times.
like John Spencer in 2006. That said, if Ogonowski wants to make a dent he should make sure to link Kerry to Deval Patrick. Patrick's a big target.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
If Ogonowski couldn't beat a ham-handed opponent like Niki Tsongas in the most R leaning district in the state, I find it highly doubtful that he could defeat John F. Kerry. Much as I hate to say it, I believe that to be the truth.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Now, at worst, Rs are one "macaca" moment away from victory. :)
Sometimes having someone there just to keep the other side "honest" is important. If Kerry votes against the troops or otherwise goes overboard, Rs have someone who gains from those excesses. 43% of MAers already disapprove of Kerry. So Ogo starts with a decent base of support. I understand those last 7 points are the hardest, but things could happen.
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I'll still probably throw Jim some cash when he runs against John Kerry.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Don't underestimate the Tsongas name. If she was named Nikki Smith, he would have won. Plus, he got some great exposure and state Republicans are looking... make that grasping, pleading for someone to beleive in.
Then again if her name was Niki Smith she probably would never have won the 5-way (I think) Democrat primary, either.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
When you can play the whole field, you can garner an upset. That's why we need strong candidates in Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and New Jersey. The odds are against us, but sometimes you catch a break.
Jim is a strong second tier candidate. That means that he wouldn't be the favorite to win, but he is a credible candidate who should run a good race, and with a lot of luck, might just win.
This is pretty much all you can ask for in a state like the Democratic Republic of Massachusetts.
PS: Let's just hope that Ensign was right about new candidates in Iowa and South Dakota.
PS 2: It is a shame we have two candidates in for the Senate race in MA. Can't Beatty shift to a Congressional race; it's not like we have a lot of talent in that state.
I wish him well and I'm glad he's running, because I think it'll make national news, and I think it'll make the D's look bad because, basically, Kerry always looks bad, but I'm not going to dilute myself. If he wins this, it will be by divine intervention.
I don't doubt that Kerry has made a big enough a$$ of himself, and Jim is a good enough candidate, to make Kerry work for his victory. I'm guessing he'll keep Kerry under 60% of the vote. But actually winning seems out of reach.
Hope I'm wrong.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---