Senate 2008
Gentlemen, Start Your Engines...
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (82) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Several diarists and writers elsewhere in the blogosphere have started to paint the picture of the 2008 Senate race. For starters, the current Senate has 49 Republicans. Rs need to pick up 2 seats to guarantee a majority and 1 if they win the Presidency again. The 2008 crop of Senators is the most Republican with 21 Republicans and 12 Democrats. In this broad overview, I look at each race and include the current age of the incumbent, possible challengers, and a tiny amount of analysis. Races are listed in order of possibility of switch, assuming the incumbent runs again. Note that much of the basic information is available at Wikipedia.
Starting with Democrat-held seats:
1. LA - Mary Landrieu (51)
The most endangered incumbent of either party in 2008. She barely won in 2002 and since then many Democratic voters have left the state. Also the party switching of voters and congressmen has continued to the point where Democrats have been left with only LA-02 (a CBC district) and LA-03 by a thin margin. Republicans control the other 5 house seats and much of the state government. By 2008, REP Jindal should be GOV Jindal. If not, he would be the best candidate to challenge Sen. Landrieu. However, there should be an ample number of qualified Republicans who want to take on Landrieu. And there is a rumor that State Treasurer John Kennedy (D) will switch parties to run for SEN.
Read on . . .
2. SD - Tim Johnson (59)
This race comes down to one thing: will GOV Rounds (R) run against Sen. Johnson. Both are popular. Sen. Johnson barely won his last election by 500 or so votes over now-SEN Thune. Thus, he does not have the institutional power that the ND D Senators do. GOV Rounds would make this an immediate toss-up. If not the Governor, it will probably fall to an ambitious state legislator. Any SD Redstaters have ideas?
3. MT - Max Baucus (64)
A strong Republican state in Presidential races, MT has sent Ds to the SEN for a long time. Sen. Baucus has voted for conservative judges on occasion and makes other gestures of moderation in order to continue winning. His biggest fear is a challenge from statewide REP Rehberg (R). After Mr. Rehberg, ex-RNC Chair and ex-GOV Racicot is high on the list. Bloggers can help in these districts by publicizing the Senators votes on controversial and liberal legislation. This tactic helped Sen. Thune beat Tom Daschle by overcoming a strong media bias in the rural state.
4. AR - Mark Pryor (43)
Sen. Pryor should face significant opposition. Ideally, ex-GOV Huckabee can be talked out of his quixotic Presidential campaign and talked in to running for Senate. If not, it is possible that REP Boozeman may throw his hat into the ring. Any AR Redstaters should be looking for good nominees in this race.
5. IA - Tom Harkin (67)
Sen. Harkin is likely to run for re-election. The most likely challenger is REP King. One thing bloggers could start doing soon is visiting wikipedia sites for Republicans and Democrats and fixing the sites to correct for bias. Rep. King's site is a particularly bad example of this. Other possible Rs include REP Latham.
6. NJ - Frank Lautenberg (82)
Despite Lautenberg’s age, he is leaning toward running again. Several Democratic House members are anxiously awaiting their turn so Frank may be pushed out. Either way, NJ will probably provide another chance for a Republican to break 45% and lose. Kean, Jr. may get a second chance, but the best candidate would be U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie who has a high profile position and could run against corruption more effectively than Kean.
7. MI - Carl Levin (72)
Sen. Levin is a possible retirement prospect. Several Republicans passed in 2006 hoping that Levin’s seat will be open in 2008. REP Miller is probably the most likely Republican although ’06 SEN nominee Bouchard, ex-Detroit Councilor Butler, and several other REPs may be interested as well. On the D side, GOV Granholm is the strongest contender although several REPS and Mayor Kirkpatrick of Detroit would be in the mix as well.
8. WV - Jay Rockefeller (69)
Assuming Rockfeller does run for re-election, the only A list Republican is REP Capito Moore. She declined a run against Byrd hoping that Rockfeller will retire. If Rockfeller does retire, GOV Manchin and both Democratic REPs would be possible candidates.
9. DE - Joe Biden (64)
Sen. Biden has announced that he will run for President. It is likely that he will pass on a re-election bid unless his Presidential campaign fizzles quickly. If he does not run for re-election, his son, Delaware Attorney General-elect Beau Biden, may be a candidate. There are many other Ds who have been waiting patiently as the Governor, 2 Senators, and 1 House member have traded positions for the past 10-15 years. On the R side, only REP Castle has a national profile which is as a moderate Snowe/Collins style Republican. Rep. Castle has some health issues. Any DE Redstaters should be thinking about who Rs could run in this race.
10. IL - Dick Durbin (62)
Sen. Durbin is now Majority Whip and despite comparing American soldiers to Nazis, he will not likely get a strong challenge. The IL GOP is in shambles and lost the GOV race in 2006 to a corrupt incumbent. If there is a rising star in the IL GOP, this is his or her chance to shine.
11. MA - John Kerry (62)
If Sen. Kerry runs for President, state law prohibits him from running for Senate. As for Democrats, REPs Ed Markey, Barney Frank, Stephen Lynch, and Martin Meehan are all interested.
Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi has already declared his intention to run against Kerry in 2008.
12. RI - Jack Reed (57)
If Laffey had not run against Chafee in 2006, he would be a great candidate in 2008. But his reputation is pretty much in shambles now despite a successful record as Mayor. The obvious hope is that GOV Carcieri (R) will run, but he was just elected to his second full term as GOV which makes a Senate run unlikely. This is a tough state for Republicans but bloggers should try to find a credible nominee.
Now the Republican-held seats:
1. CO - Wayne Allard (62)
Sen. Allard is running up on his term limit pledge this cycle, but he may break it. Democratic Representative Mark Udall has announced that he will seek the seat. Other R possibilities include ex-GOV Owens and ’04 SEN nominee Pete Coors. Democrats will likely unify around Udall.
2. NH - John Sununu (42)
Sen. Sununu is relatively popular but will likely face a strong opponent since NH has lurched left in the past 4 years. Both REPs and the state house and senate have flipped to Democratic control in 2006. The first tier of challengers includes ex-GOV, ’02 SEN nominee Shaheen and GOV Lynch. The Governor has announced that he will state in NH. If Shaheen declines a re-match, the two new REPs could make a run for it. Even if they pass, the atmosphere in NH will encourage someone to make a serious run at the seat.
3. MN - Norm Coleman (57)
Sen. Coleman will be a target by the “netroots” and the establishment left. In 2006, MN returned to its strong Democratic roots after becoming a contestable state for Republicans. Nevertheless, Sen. Coleman has not upset voters in his state and it will take a strong opponent to threaten him. The left wants Al Franken to run, but the establishment is more likely to support Minneapolis Mayor Rybak or another state office holder. Also-rans Ford Bell and Mike Ciresi from the 2006 DFL Senate primary may also try again.
4. VA - John Warner (79)
Before the 2006 election, Sen. Warner was expected to retire. Rumors are that he is reconsidering that notion lest VA become entirely run by Democrats. Either way, the big X factor is ex-GOV Mark Warner who narrowly lost to Sen. Warner in 1996 before the influx of Democrats in Northern Virginia. After M. Warner, Ds have GOV Kaine and several REPs that may run. If Sen. Warner retires, REP Tom Davis of NoVa has made it quite clear that he will run. He represents areas that are increasingly Democratic but like Rep. Davis because of his ability to bring home the federal government jobs and contracts as pork to his constituents. REP Wolf, REP Jo Ann Davis, and ex-GOV Gilmore would all be possible nominees as well. And the most interesting X factor on the R side is the possibility of a ex-SEN Allen comeback, for better or for worse.
5. OR - Gordon Smith (54)
Sen. Smith keeps a low profile, votes reliable Republican, and keeps a great moderate image. This strategy has helped Democrats win in states like ND, MT, NE, LA, AR, and WV. There aren’t many Republicans who pull it off. Sen. Smith continues to be relatively popular in the left-of-center OR. It will take a strong candidate to upend him and the Democrats only really have one: ex-GOV Kitzhaber. After that A list, the other names being floated include REPs Blumenauer and DeFazio who would both start as underdogs.
6. OK - Jim Inhofe (72)
A bit surprising, OK may field a competitive race. First, Inhofe may retire. In that case, the usual pleas to get ex-REP J.C. Watts to run will occur, but more likely REP Cole, REP Fallin, or ex-OKC Mayor Humphries would join a contested primary. Second, popular GOV Henry (D) just won 66% of the state vote this year and would be formidable. Even if the Governor passes on the chance, REP Boren is known to be eyeing a promotion. He has the most conservative record of any Democrat in the House and his father’s conservative record as Senator (including a vote for Bork) helps him. Either would make it a race against Inhofe and both would likely be slight favorites in an open race.
7. ME - Susan Collins (53)
Sen. Collins is now expected to break her term limit pledge and run for re-election. As one of the few remaining Northeast Republicans, she will draw some form of challenge. The most competitive would be GOV Baldacci, but he shows no sign of running. The next best bet would be REP Allen. According to Hotline, at last reporting, Allen had $440K CoH to Collins' $392K. Other possible candidates include AG Rowe, outgoing Speaker of the House John G. Richardson, and former Senate President Beverly Daggett. In the end, Senator Collins’ moderate record has proved popular in Maine and she is a heavy favorite.
8. NC - Elizabeth Dole (70)
Sen. Dole has announced that she will run for re-election. The best Democratic candidate would be GOV Easley who is term limited in 2008. If he passes, then LG Perdue and AG Cooper are possible B list candidates. NC could be competitive for Democrats but Sen. Dole is widely respected in the state.
9. KS - Pat Roberts (70)
There is only one way Sen. Roberts has a problem… if GOV Sebelius runs against him. This is unlikely as the Governor enjoys staying in KS but if she is recruited well, the race could be competitive. Otherwise, a sacrificial lamb will be served.
10. TN - Lamar Alexander (66)
Sen. Alexander is unlikely to get a difficult challenge. However, if GOV Bredesen cuts his second term short to run for Senate, it would be a competitive race. If Ds re-nominate Ford, Jr. in a less anti-Republican year against an incumbent, this will be a ho-hum race.
11. TX - John Cornyn (54)
Sen. Cornyn would make a great “stealth” Supreme Court nominee. But for now, he will have to stick with the Senate gig. Despite being a reliable Republican in TX, his approval ratings are not stellar. Thus, a real challenger is possible ’06 GOV nominee Chris Bell, Houston mayor Bill White, and ex-Dallas mayor Ron Kirk are names being tossed about. However, the biggest threat comes from conservative REP Henry Cuellar of Laredo who won a rare Club for Growth endorsement as a Democrat.
12. GA - Saxby Chambliss (63)
Sen. Chambliss is running in the more-GOP-every-day state of GA (no doubt thanks to PeachPundit, Erick, Clayton, and Jeff). However, this race will be a “netroots” target because of the perceived disrespect shown ex-SEN Cleland. Some on the left would like to see a re-run of ex-Sen. Cleland which would be a walk-over for Sen. Cambliss as Cleland has gone Cindy Sheehan lefty since losing his seat. Ds would be smarter if they went with REP Marshall or SecState Cox or Atlanta Mayor Franklin. All would be still be long shots and are thus unlikely to give up their current gigs.
13. KY - Mitch McConnell (64)
Minority Leader McConnell will gain some kudos for his leadership position. Nevertheless, KY has not be as friendly for the GOP recently with REP Northup losing and GOV Fletcher losing popularity. Possible opponents for the Minority Leader include AG Stumbo, ‘04 SEN nominee Mongiardo, and REP Yarmuth. Fortunately, ex-REP Chandler has decided to stay in retirement this time as his conservative record makes him a more formidable foe. Sen. McConnell may luck out as KY Dems could pass on this race in hopes of an open seat in 2010 when Sen. Bunning is expected to retire for health reasons.
14. NM - Pete Domenici (74)
Surprising many, Sen. Domenici has indicated that he will run again. Democrats are looking at ex-AG, ’04 NM-01 nominee Patricia Madrid and REP Udall. If the Senator does run, he will be a strong favorite. If not, REP Wilson or another highly respected Republican will be needed to win in this swing state.
15. WY - Michael Enzi (62)
If Sen. Enzi runs, Sen. Enzi wins. If not, GOV Freudenthal is a looming conservative Democrat who could make it a race.
16. SC - Lindsey Graham (51)
Some Republicans want to primary the conservative Senator because he works across party lines a bit too much for them, specifically in the case of “The Deal” on judicial filibusters. A true primary challenge is unlikely and would be a waste of resources. Sen. Graham should not have a hard time winning re-election.
17. NE - Chuck Hagel (60)
Although Sen. Hagel has flirted with a Presidential bid, it is likely he will run for re-election. If Republicans are feeling vindictive, Hagel makes an attractive primary challenge possibility since NE is more conservative than the Senator. If he retires, Rs have ex-REP Osborne, ex-GOV Johanns, ’06 SEN nominee Pete Ricketts, and GOV Heinneman as possible replacements. Democrats don’t have much of a bench.
18. AK - Ted Stevens (83)
Still fighting Sen. Byrd for the title of “Top Porker,” Sen. Stevens is unlikely to retire. He, and his constituents, value seniority and the other AK Senator is still young in Senatorial terms. It is unlikely but possible that a small government primary challenge could occur. More likely, Sen. Stevens will walk into re-election. The top Democratic challenger, ex-GOV Knowles, has now lost to a nepotistic Senate appointment (SEN Murkowski) and an upstart Mayor turned Governor (GOV Palin). So despite being the only big name in the AK Democratic Party, he has lost two easier races and is unlikely to take up a quixotic race against Sen. Stevens. Possible sacrificial lambs include Anchorage Mayor Begich and state REP Croft.
19. MS - Thad Cochran (68)
As long as Cochran runs, he wins. If he does not, MS should be an easy hold for Republicans in a Presidential year. Nevertheless, Ds have two possible candidates in ex-AG Michael Moore and REP Taylor. If Cochran does retire, both R REPs could be possible nominees.
20. AL - Jeff Sessions (60)
Sen. Sessions is a strong favorite in his re-election bid. REP Davis may run against him but even he won’t stand much of a chance.
21. ID - Larry Craig (61)
If Sen. Craig runs, Sen. Craig wins. If he doesn’t, the Republican would be heavily favored.
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Senate 2008 82 Comments (0 topical, 82 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
One question. Why would we want The Democratic State Treasurer to be a GOP Senator? Is he better than Lincoln Chaffage?
2006 is done, 2008 is another day and another fight
Often party switchers are some of the most reliable partisans. This is because if they are fence-sitters it is easier to stay in their own party. The switch usually means they are fed up with their old party. Notable party switchers: Ronald Reagan, Norm Coleman, Phil Gramm.
Note also that Lincoln Chafee was not a party switcher.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Concerning Arkansas, I noticed you put Win Rockerfellar-but I believe he died last year.
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
I wanted to be the first to point that out. If he won, he wouldn't be the first dead guy to be elected U.S. senator.
Actually that "honor" falls to Carnahan from Missouri who died in a plane crash a few weeks before the election. He still managed to squeeze out a win against then Sen. Ashcroft.
A very good point. One may note that covering all 33 races meants I did not do as much in depth fact checking as I will in the future as the number of competitive races narrows. I will fix the error.
As a Democrat would replace him.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
One more reason to support someone else for the Republican nomination. Couldn't Arizona legislators do what the Massachusetts counterparts did in 2004 -- pass a law that requires the confirmation of the legislature for any senate nominee?
That's not what they did. The new law actually takes the power to appoint a Senator away from the Governor altogether. Now the Governor may only call a special election to fill a vacancy. There are no longer any appointments under Massachusetts law.
A rundown on state laws of this nature - I gather Hawaii has one, too.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
On page 2 there is an overview of State laws on filling Senate vacancies. The specific law is referenced in a footnote.
http://lugar.senate.gov/CRS%20reports/House_and_Senate_Vacancies.pdf
Because a law can not require an appointed Senator to caucus with either party once confirmed. Therefore, the Democratic Governor would just pick a Democrat and tell him/her to change their registration to Republican for a day in order to receive the appointment, after which they could change their registration back and caucus with the Dems to give the the majority.
What McCain needs to do is resign from the Senate to allow for a new election if he receives the nomination. This shouldn't be a problem for him as he is up in age and I doubt he would want to stay on the scene til 2012 if he fails to win the Presidency in 2008.
"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"
Is limiting retirements. If Stevens,Warner, Domenici, Choceran, Craig, and Inhofe; it will make things really hard for us. Right now Domenici and Stevens have said they are running again. Warner, my senator, indicated to the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he will run again because he fears Virginia losing clout in the Senate by having two first-term senators (Webb and whoever replaces him), so if he runs he will win. Mark Warner won't challenge him, and younger Dems like State Sen. Creigh Deeds, Del. Brian Moran, and Gov. Tim Kaine don't want to spoil any future statewide ambitions by getting blown out of the water against John Warner. The left won't be able to race-bait Warner the way they did Allen.
The onus is really on John Ensign to recruit well. Mike Rounds, Jim Boozeman, Chris Christie would all make fabulous candidates. Lets hope he can get the job done.
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
The POTUS candidates - and the eventual nominee - need to be able to convince down-ticket wobblers that there will be a strong campaign to run behind.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
When you say, "The key for the GOP is limiting retirements," that means, effectively, "because without the benefit of incumbency, we can't sell conservative ideas in these states."
It means that it is easier to LOSE a seat to the Democrats with an open seat because the Democrat will run as a conservative and hide their liberalness until they are in office, but thanks for being your party's mascot.
Or if you want the non-jacka** response: Open seats are harder to defend, period (and that means for both parties)
Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
You mean Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Claire McKaskill or Sheldon Whitehouse? And have you seen Jim Webb's WaPo piece?
Yes, of course open seats are more difficult to defend. Just giving you guys a harder time than 11/7/06 itself did. :)
support, and one that has applied for many years for both parties.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
For the long term health of the GOP, we need to recruit someone to run against Stevens in the primary. I know it will be a tough year trying to hold on with the close races we have, but we need to challenge the pork culture. Even if our person does not win the primary, at least it could push Stevens fiscally right.
. . . can a candidate who does NOT promise to bring home pork have a chance of even winning in Alaska? I mean, its one of those states (like Mississippi) that is basically on federal welfare. It relies so heavily on federal dollars I wonder if a fiscally conservative candidate can even win there, you know?
Until Alaska decides to start raising its own revenue (I believe they do not have an income tax, is that right?) it will continue to rely on its senators to bring the $$$ home.
As it is, a candidate might be ex-Lt. Governor Loren Leman.
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
Just because Alaska voters have elected pork politicians, it does not necessarily mean they favor pork. It certainly hasn't hurt them, but they have never been challenged by a fiscal conservative who otherwise matches their view.
Alaska does have it's own revenue, from oil (taxes, fees, or whatever you want to call it). Cutting federal pork is not going to shut down Alaska, and I don't think voters would buy that line even if it was argued.
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
Alaska doesn't live on federal welfare, though we do enjoy a good pork feast when they're made available. I won't reargue how much money was pilfered from the District and Territory when it was a playground for federal appointees and their favorite monopolies, but let's just look at today.
First, Alaska isn't that small state in the Pacific just below Hawaii that you see on most maps; it is 586,000 square miles or about a quarter the land mass of the continental US. It is just under 2 hours by B737 from Seattle to the closest point in Alaska. It is five hours flight time by B737 from Ketchikan, the southernmost city, to Barrow, the northernmost. There is no road access west of a line drawn from Fairbanks to Anchorage and only the limited-travel pipeline haul road north from Fairbanks. All access west of ANC-FAI and north of FAI is by air or summer-only barge. If you think gasoline and fuel oil are expensive where you live, try buying it after it has been airfreighted in. Much of that area is still without running water and flush toilets, BTW, and what there is was largely paid for by the State. All intercity access in Southeast Alaska is by ferry and barge execept the towns of Haines and Skagway, the northernmost points in SE connect with the Canadian road system.
Of that 586,000 square miles, less than a third is the territory of the State of Alaska, the remainder is either federal land or Alaska Native (aboriginal Eskimo, Indian, and Aleut peoples) land under confused State-federal jurisdiction under the Alaska Native Land Claims Settlement Act. While the State provides education to Alaska Natives, most social welfare and almost all health services are federal or federal funds transferred through the State. The Fed insists on management of much of the fish and wildlife since they don't like how we do it; we have this thing about equal access for all citizens and they want preferential access for "subsistence users," which is code for Alaska Natives. Much of the federal land is National Park or Wilderness areas and there is an enormous NPS, USFS, and BLM presence here. They just built a most imposing new NPS edifice in downtown Anchorage - on a project labor agreement with Davis-Bacon wages of course.
There is a huge military presence here; Elmendorf AFB is air cover for America's right flank in the Pacific Rim, Forts Richardson and Wainright perform the same function for the Army, Ft. Greeley is one of two anti-balistic missile sites in the Country - a missile fired by our NorKor friends, or our Chinese friends should it ever come to that, towards the interior US would go over or near Alaska. There are still all sorts of spooky military sites scattered around, but not nearly so many as in the Cold War days. There is also a huge USCG presence here, but it should be remembered that most of the container traffic to the West Coast traverses the Great Circle route through Alaskan waters. You may have noticed that much of that international shipping is not especially well run or well maintained, so hardly a month goes by that some of their crew isn't being plucked out of the water and hardy a year goes by without a ship or two sinking or going aground in Alaska waters. The North Pacific and Bering Sea also happen to be the richest fisheries in the World.
I could go on a while, but when you trot out that $1.89 in federal spending for each $1.00 in federal tax collection, you need to sift out how much the Fed is spending on its own stuff here. I'll certainly admit that Alaska benefits from the Fed spending on its own stuff, but most of the labor is imported and almost all the materials, so that spending doesn't have nearly the spinoff benefit that State spending on State residents has. Alaska didn't choose, in fact vehemently opposed, to have a third of its landmass turned into parks and wilderness, most of which will never be seen by anyone but Fed employees and the very richest Greenies. The good people of the Lower 48 apparently want Alaska to be a theme park, so they can pay for it. Alaskans thought that ANCSA extinguished the "dependent sovereign" status of its aboriginal people, but the BIA and IHS would not go gently and under Clinton and Knowles "sovereignty" raised its head again. That said, if they are not federal Indians in a Constitutional sense, that means they are ordinary Alaskans, the way we wanted it, but we certainly cannot afford them in the manner the Fed has taught them to be accustomed. I'd hate to know the State had to pay just the heat bill and grounds maintenance on the IHS complex in ANC, and the capital cost must be near half a billion. Alaska is very pro-military, so you won't hear much grousing about the military here, but all the spending at Davis-Bacon wages does distort our entire wage structure and makes all State and local construction much more expensive.
As I've said before, we'll give up federal transportation spending when every other state and polisub does; I ain't holding my breath for the rest of you to do that, though we all may now that the Ds are in power. If you haven't noticed they don't much like roads and especially the things that travel on them.
To the main point in this thread; Ted Stevens can die in office if he wants to. Frank Murkowski killed the goose that laid the golden egg with Lisa's appointment and the people changed the succession law by initiative; any unexpired term must be filled by election. John Binkley, who Murkowski should have appointed, is probably the best bet for a successor. I hate to break it to the Alaska experts here, but Loren Leman, though I like him personally, could not win a statewide general election if opposed by any credible Democrat. I think Knowles will throw in the towel and go take a nice sinecure at the University or one of the non-profits and try to be an "elder statesman," bitching about everything anybody in power does in the Jay Hammond model. Knowles has that Democrat "we can do it better" line down to a fine art. Mark Begich, Anchorage Mayor, is the D up and comer, but I think his first step will be to the House of Representatives, following in his father's footsteps. Croft and Berkowitz would have to spend some time in the Wilderness and recast themselves as "conservative" Democrats and hope that everyone forgets that they were screaming Lefties in the Legislature - and Alaska's voting population is young enough and transient enough that they could do that.
In Vino Veritas
In the Palmetto State, a Sandlapper is always awake and on guard to immediately rebuff slurs against what remains post-Sherman's torch.
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
http://gamecock.townhall.com
in my post-Dixie home! Though I do get nostalgic for moonlight and magnolias occassionally. Today's a good day to be nostalgic since it is zero outside and we've had 44 inches of snow so far in November. I've already put a cab on my snowblower and now I'm trying to figure out how to install a stereo and a cupholder. I was really starting to enjoy Global Warming. You'll note that there is a four hour difference from AST to EST, so I wasn't sleeping on watch for long.
In Vino Veritas
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
http://gamecock.townhall.com
an educational treatise. What the heck, with all the snow you've got nothin' else to do... :>)
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
but I've gotten too old and lazy. Thirty years ago, I'd strap on the cross country skis and have an adventure in this weather. Anymore, I hate to go get the paper. Other than going down to make sure the boat hasn't sunken every couple of days and getting the paper, I haven't been out of the house in two weeks. I need to hear some mariachi music!
In Vino Veritas
Landrieu should be a near certain pick up for us. Tim Johnson a likely pick up if we can lean on Rounds to run.
We need retirements from Harkin, Levin, and Rockefeller. If they run, they win. Period. If they retire then King/Nussle/Vander Plaats in Iowa, Candace Miller in MI, and Capito in WV have good chances.
On defense, we absolutely need another GOPer to hold Colorado. Allard is slam dunk loser as CO turns blue. Owens may primary Allard if old Wayne doesn't take the hint. Owens may be able to hold it. Sununu is the best we can do and he should hold on, but the D's have plenty of good challengers and a newly blue congressional delegation and state house to boot. Normie is our best shot to hold on in MN. John Warner wins in VA if he runs, unless Mark Warner runs against him then it's a toss up. If John retires and Mark runs, kiss VA good bye.
With 102 weeks until the next US Senate election, it is looking like a 3 seat swing in either direction will be the max. But much can change.
It's still a red state through and through as our votes on ballot initiatives evidenced. The problem is that Governor Owens ripped the state GOP to shreds. So many in the GOP cannot stand the man and I pray he doesn't primary Allard.
I think Allard may stand down to give Bob Schaffer a chance to run. Schaffer got beaten by Pete Coors because, led by Owens, the party establishment stabbed Schaffer in the back in favor of Coors (who was quite possibly the lamest candidate this state has ever seen run for state office).
Other names are Scott McGinnis (old US congressman with a 1 million dollar war chest available) and Tom Tancredo, and CU president and old senator Hank Brown.
Brown won't run with his cush new job and Tancredo would be dicey outside of Colorado Springs and the GOP suburbs. McGinnis is a very solid candidate and he's got plenty of money on hand. He's a western slope guy with a good statewide draw--his impressive record on the environment will help win over moderates, too.
In the end I think Allard may run. He's not a big noise-maker but he's a good senator. Mark Udall is a big lefty from Boulder and he is a very slimy character. Allard can beat hiim and probably will. If he chooses to honor his term limit pledge, I like Bob Schaffer who is just about the most solid conservative you'll find in Colorado. He can do what Beauprez didn't do in his race: appeal to the growing social conservative vote here while holding the libertarian vote as well.
An opportunist's opportunist, he swung far left in 1994's Senate election (which David Vitter, R, won). Kennedy placed 3rd in the open primary. What he would gain by switching parties is beyond me.
hold what we have and knock of Landrieu. Even taking Johnson is SD will not be easy as Daschle barely lost and was much more liberal than Johnson. I would say overall the dems are favored to hold (barely) in '08. Our biggest hope for significant change in the Senate is '12 when we have almost nothing to lose (already lost it) and much to gain.
about 2012, but then again I thought that this year since in 2000, the Dems won a bunch of close Senate races (and this was the first time they were all on the ballot again). I thought 2006 was going to be tilted our way. There is NO reason to think that it is impossible to pick up a few seats in 2008.
Formerly ConservativeD. Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
He's Senate "Majority" Whip now. I know...it's hard for me to get used to the role reversal, too.
My favorite Senator will not be a SCOTUS nominee.
First, the next nominee will not be a white male.
Second, I have it on good authority that he's already turned the job down once. He did not like being a Texas Supreme Court justice. I think he will remain in the legislative or executive branch for the rest of his political career.
As for him being unpopular, I think you're offbase. Besides that, no Democrat has held statewide office in more than a decade. His seat is safe.
I had actually heard the opposite. He was quite happy as a Justice, but Karl Rove talked him into running for state AG and then Senator.
And by unpopular I mean relatively. His approval numbers hover under 50% which is adequate but not resounding.
I don't see how you can say his seat is safe. While he is certainly favored, the Texas GOP took a pounding on election day. Republican judges in contested races in Dallas and Bexar county got killed (every contested Republican judge lost in Dallas county). They lost five seats in the state house (six for the year because of speical election earlier in the year). Henry Bonilla is in the fight for his political life right now in the special in Tx-23. Perry didn't break 40%, and the rest of the non-judicial statewides didn't have great showings. If, the legislature screws up in the upcoming session (and knowing them, I wouldn't put it past them), they could make '08 a tough year for the GOP. If John Sharp runs, Cornyn could be in real trouble.
Two Republicans - Gov. Rick Perry and former Republican State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn - split the general electorate. Together, they got 57% of the vote. The GOP holds every single statewide elected office - including every single seat on the elected Supreme Court and Criminal Court of Appeals - and has for quite a while now. The only thing to be determined is how big a margin that John Cornyn will win by.
As for Henry Cuellar, I actually think that if he runs for statewide office, it will be as a Republican and not as a Democrat. He was, after all, Rick Perry's Secretary of State. His district is heavy D, though, so he had to run as a Democrat in order to win. Plus, it allowed him to leverage an ability to get conservative Democrats to vote for him in the primary as well as a large number of Republicans voting in the Democratic primary in that district.
Given his policy leanings, I don't think that Henry Cuellar would run against John Cornyn. Now, when Kay Bailey Hutchison finally retires, he might run for that seat. Then, we will see if he runs as a Republican or a Democrat. He's going to have some competition, though, because Henry Bonilla will probably run for that seat as well.
And Henry Bonilla fell like a point shy of avoiding a runoff. His opponant got 23% of the vote in the general. He's got a ton of money on hand. He will probably cruise to re-election.
Basically, John Cornyn will continue to be a Senator for a very, very long time.
To start with, I don't put much stock in any of the state wide races. Only Perry faced any type of race. If the Republican candidates hadn't of won by double digits, we would have been in real trouble. Further more, 60% of the State voted for someone other than the most conservative governor Texas has had for a long while. Considering the cast of clowns he was running against, he should have done better than 40% of the vote. Also, the judicial races are just mystifying. Someone explain to me Willett's and Keller's numbers compared to their respective GOP counter parts.
But you need to look at it county by county. I don't see how anyone can look at the GOP results in Dallas and Bexar county and not be worried. When given a choice of a good D candidates (in which there were not any in the Dem statewide field), the challenger D beat the incumbent R. Also, take a look at a swing county like Hays. For years it had been Republican dominated. This past election, Republicans did very poorly. So, you have GOP losing seats in the state house, losing judgeships in populous counties and in some swing counties losing seats. It is a troubling trend. If the legislature screws up in 2008, as they are known to do, it could hurt the GOP across the state.
In TX-23, Bonilla got 48.5% of the votes, the D candidates got 49% of the vote and the indy candidate got 2.5% of the vote. The thing which will probably save Bonilla is the fact that he has a lot of money and Perry can call a quick election to keep the D's from getting set up, money raised, and a GOTV program up and running. But this will not be an easy race.
I fully expect Cornyn to win. If Radnofsky, Kirk, or Turner run, Cornyn is probably fine. It will be a little closer than people would like. However, if White or Sharp run, the race is basically a toss up at that point. There will be a fight to hold this seat.
Unfortunately, we do need to be thinking about this already.
Formerly ConservativeD. Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
Senator John Warner's refusal to support GOP nominee Oliver North in 1994 and a conservative candidate for a state wide office in 1993 is the reason Mark Warner came close to defeating him. In a year with low turnout, conservatives, especially gun owners, withheld their support in 1996 for the incumbent. I live in Northern VA and few people I associate with voted for Allen; however, they all have nice things to say about Senator Warner. The same is true for Tom Davis. Warner ran unopposed in 2002, if the Democrats are smart they won't waste time/money trying to unseat him. Warner is like Lugar - not going anywhere and popular across the state for his civil demeanor, intelligence, and decades of government service.
Also, Ted Stevens is 83, not 73. If re-elected in 2008, he would be 91 at the end of his term in 2015.
If Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee, and the Republicans run someone popular like Giuliani, I think we could easily pick up 3-4 Senate seats.
The "redstates" will be absolute blowouts against Hillary, with high turnout from conservatives and low turnout among liberals. The long coattails will pull several Republicans over the finish line.
The "purple" and "blue" states will also have a strong tailwind that could help otherwise uncompetetive elections come within reach.
2008 looks like it will be a good year for Republicans, as voters have gotten a chance to vent, and they will see the Democrats in charge over the next two years.
I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Republicans also took back the House.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Bare in mind that Coors got a DUI earlier this year. He handled it about as well as he could, but I'm pretty sure he's a has-been. Owens isn't popular with anyone: not R's, not D's, not moderates. Allard I believe has the best shot of anyone given his seniority and the devoutly conservative base that he has never upset. He also keeps a fairly low profile, so he hasn't really upset anyone. What his or any other R's chances of winning in 08 though really depends on the next two years with D's in charge of practically everything.
Who do you think the Dems will run? Would they be gutsy enough to nominate the other Salazar brother?
We should have a good shot against either of them. Udall's base is the college town of Boulder. A friend of mine described it as "somewhere between reality and the Rockies". Denver and Boulder are the two most liberal areas of the state. Sen. Salazar ran as a moderate. I don't think either Udall or Hickenlopper could pull it off. Of course, it also depends on getting a decent GOP candidate.
He would lose all credibility in the state if he runs. He is able to achieve his means much easier as mayor than anything else. That's why he didn't run for guv (which he would have lost even to Beauprez).
The state is still conservative and I'm not worried about '08 and beyond.
The dems would go after John Salazar. He is a lot like Ritter and I think he would beat just about any GOP candidate. But they won't. After the Dems in legislature go uber-centrist the Boulder lefties will get ancy and shun a center-right guy like Salazar. Udall will get smoked (as would Hickenlooper) and it'll translate into big statewide-GOP gains.
I think moderate Ritter will ruin the state Dems like moderate Owens ruined the state GOP. Without Owens the state GOP can regroup and reassert itself in an overwhelmingly conservative state.
The general election will also draw out the GOP base (unlike '06) and I'm very optimisitic about our chances.
What his or any other R's chances of winning in 08 though really depends on the next two years with D's in charge of practically everything.
I wish, unfortunately, the problem in Iraq is upsetting many people and certainly played a part in the unfavorable results this year. If "President Bush's" war is still perceived as going as badly as it is now, it will be a serious drag on the election.
Allard is a good conservative in a good conservative state. I think he'll do fine against that slimy Mark Udall. Udall won't get the draw from the Latinos like Ken Salazar. Plus, Salazar is a true moderate and his voting record proves it. Udall is a true lefty and there's no hiding from it.
I think the Democrats in Colorado have mistaken our turn to the Dems to be a turn to the left. In fact, the state has gotten more, not less, conservative over the last 20 years. John Salazar would probably beat Allard because John is a great center-right Democrat whose very popular on the Western Slope.
Owens has screwed the state GOP and will certainly not be embraced in a primary.
Pete Coors? Is that a joke? Because he sure is!
The Dems' hold on state power is limited. Polls show Tancredo beating any Democrat in only 3 states--among them Colorado. That means that this state is one of the more conservative ones around and Hildebeast would draw out the state conservative base like never before.
Can you provide a link for the "Tancredo beating any Democrat in only 3 states" assertion? I haven't seen polling on him that shows anything like that.
If you go to Survey USA (www.surveyusa.com) you can match up any Dem with any Republican and it'll give you the red/blue state roundup. Tancredo (I was mistaken) would actually beat Hildebeast in several states, but far too few to get any traction electorally. But Tommy Boy does win in Colorado.
If CO Dems nominate Hillary for CO SEN, they would be about as dumb as CO Reps nominating Tancredo for CO SEN.
Allard is also extremely popular in Pueblo because of the work he's done on the chemical depot. Last time I saw the numbers he had somewhere between a 60-70% favorable rating among all residents polled in Pueblo, and that's a city where the D's outweigh the R's pretty heavily. So liberal that 2 years ago the D turnout was heavy enough to be the swing factor in the Salazar/Schaffer race. With the heavy turnout of a presidential election year, and with rumors of Wadhams possibly coming back to CO to run his election I think Allard will hold the seat if he runs again.
Owens killed the party the last two years, he is no longer popular with the base, and also has a stepping out problem with his wife.
Everything written about McCinnis is true so far, popular, knows Western issues well, pretty solid fiscal conservative...but he's pro-choice. If there is a primary that will more than likely hurt his chances.
My opinion on a Tancredo run has actually shifted a bit. Colorado has a massive illegal immigration problem and people are tired of it. When Owens caved to the Dems in July on the immigration package that kept a more harsh measure off the ballot, people were furious. If Allard bows out, a Tancredo run on the promise to "fix the illegal immigrant problem" is being rumored as what some people in the state party are rooting for because it is a winning issue for us in this state.
Anything is better than Udall, anything. The People's Republic of Boulder is a San Francisco transplant and not a good snapshot of true Colorado values. Speculating on other Dem opponents is pointless right now because Udall announced his intention to run for the Senate a year ago to try and avoid a primary and so far no one else who has a serious shot on that side has even hinted at throwing their hat in the ring. I couldn't tell you if he'd run on the chance that Allard decides to keep his seat.
Politics and common sense aren't dungs of the same cow.
He's all the Dems got unless Salazar runs. But I don't think he will because he's got a cush seat in CD-3 and he may be afraid of the whole Salazar-dynasty business. So Snarky Marky will run and lose.
As far as Tancredo goes...
I think he would win, too, though it would be too close for my comfort. He would need to bolster his social conservatism, though. Apparently, abortion and marriage do matter in Colorado. He's been a two-issue man for a while and that would hurt him. He would get ripped in Pueblo, Allard would win. Immigration matters here but not as much as people like Beauprez and O'Donnell think. They waged the house on immigration mattering and they want beat because of it.
The truth is, Coloradans care about Colorado values: low taxes, educational and economic innovation (vouchers, pro-growth policies, etc.), and family issues (pro-marriage, child tax credits, and the rest). The GOP has a tough time because it fails to balance the Colorado Springs conservatism with the suburban soccer mom conservatism. The moms want good schools and affordable living; the Springs folks want faith back in the public square. They are not mutually exclusive but if you move too far to either margin (a la Beauprez to the soccer moms) you lose.
Allard is great at balancing that (as was Owens). He may not be the most charismatic politican ever but he's a good one. Tancredo may not be able to win both sides of the GOP base. It is crucial, though, that the GOP puts out strong candidates in CDs 7 and 3 to get a draw for Allard and statehouse seats. We lost the legislature because conservatives stayed home knowing that Ritter had it in the bad (and that he wouldn't be that bad anyway). That gave seats like Ed Jones' and Bill Crane's away. That can't happen.
will be if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. If its Hillary, we get a HUGE boost. It will be hard for imcubant and challenging Dems in reddish to purple states to overcome her negatives.
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
I previously gave her about a 75% chance. Warner and Feingold dropping out tells me that the field is starting to see the writing on the wall. That's not to say she will be unopposed, but unless Gore or Obama runs and scrambles the field she can easily steamroll people like Edwards, Kerry (hah!), Biden, and Bayh.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
While Osborne was a popular football coach, he was soft on immigration and that cost him the governor's job. Johanns is the strongest and could probably beat Hagel in a primary. Beating Osborne is a good indication that Heinneman would make a strong senate candidate.
Johanns should run against Chuck Hagel in this year's primary, and then Heinneman should try to knock off Ben Nelson in 6 years.
There are two state-wide GOP office holders, AG Mike Cox and SS Terri Lynn Land. Both won this year despite the strong showings by Gov. Granholm and Sen. Stabenow. They were also incumbants this year. Cox had a minor scandal, admitting to an extramarital affair in the latter part of 2005. There were also allegations that a potential Dem challenger to AG was trying to blackmail Cox base on this information. It all died down by election time 2006 and Cox went on to win. Of course, it would pop up again if he were to run for Senator.
The strongest Dem candidate would be the moderate Congressman, Bart Stupak. He is pro-life (and probably pro-gun?). He represents Michigan's 1st district - the upper pennisula and the upper part of the lower pennisula. He would get the Detroit vote and challenge the GOP for the non-Detroit vote.
LA - Mary Landrieu is a dead duck. Maybe Rep. Baker can be the one to shoot her down. His Club for Growth scorecard is second only to Jindal in the Louisiana House delegation, and he's not far behind. The only drawback is that I'd prefer to see someone in his or her 50s and Baker would be 60 in 2008. Of course Bobby Jindal would still be my first choice. Maybe John Ensign can be talk him into switching races and convince him that Louisiana and the nation need him more in the Senate than in the Governor's Mansion.
SD - We definitely need Mike Rounds to run against Tim Johnson. Then we need the next Republican governor to knock off Stephanie Herseth in the House. The best case scenario would be for Tim Johnson to retire and for Stephanie Herseth to throw her hat in the ring to run against Mike Rounds for the open Senate seat. Rounds wins and a Republican would almost certainly come in to take the House seat as well.
MT - We need Rep. Rehberg to hold his house seat in Montana for now, and then run against John Tester in 6 years. Mark Racicot needs to step up to the plate and knock off Max Baucus in 2008.
AR - I would prefer to see Asa Hutchinson leverage the Name ID he just built up in his run for governor in a race for the U.S. Senate against Mark Pryor. My support for Mike Huckabee, even for the Senate, would be tepid at best. Another Big Government Republican is not exactly what we need in the Senate. Boozman just doesn't look like he could beat Mark Pryor to me. He looks best suited for a long career in the House.
IA - Representative King knocking off Tom Harkin would be awesome! He's the kind of Republican we need more of in the Senate.
NJ - Run Tom Kean again. See what he can do. Maybe this time he can spend less time running against the Administration and more time running against the Democrat.
MI - Run Mike Bouchard again. I really got to like him in the last election. And again, he has leveraged Name ID. Still, probably the only way that this seat flips is if Levin retires.
WV - Hopefully Rockefeller will retire and Shelley Moore Capito will win his open seat.
DE, IL, MA, and RI...forget about it.
GOP Held Senate Seats:
NE - Mike Johanns needs to beat Chuck Hagel in the primary and be the next senator from Nebraska. Mike Heinneman needs to knock off Ben Nelson in 6 years. We also need to get Pete Ricketts climbing the political latter in Nebraska. He's awesome, and I'd prefer to have him in the Senate over any of these guys.
SC - Thomas Ravenel needs to be recruited to knock off Lindsey Graham in the GOP Primary. Jim DeMint needs some help in the Senate promoting fiscal restraint and discipline. William Haynes needs to have a vote that's obstructing him from taking his proper seat on the 4th Circuit removed.
VA - John Warner needs to retire and George Allen needs to win the seat.
AK - Ted Stevens needs to stay in one more term so we can get Gov. Sara Palin a little more seasoned before we send her packing for DC.
MS - Thad Cochran needs to go. He, along with Ted Stevens, co-chair the a "Can I Super Size That?" Big Government Republican caucus. I think that Rep. Chip Pickering will be more fiscally restrained than Sen. Cochran has been.
WY - Mike Enzi needs to retire and Lynn Cheney needs to run for his seat.
KS - I think that Pat Roberts is going to end up retiring. We need to be looking for someone good to retain this seat if Gov. Seblius runs. Rep. Ryun has a respectable Club for Growth score. Maybe he can make a comeback and win this seat if Roberts retires.
Asa Hutchinson lost badly in his bid for Arkansas Governor. Furthermore, Mark Pryor won his Senate seat over Asa's brother Tim Hutchinson, who had campaigned as a "family values man" in 1996, then left his wife for a much younger woman, which probably cost him his Senate seat in 2002. If Asa Hutchinson, who doesn't have such baggage, were to run for Senate, Pryor might raise this issue again, and try to confuse voters about which brother is running, and tie Asa to Tim's family problems.
As for Wyoming, why waste Lynne Cheney trying to hold an already safe Senate seat? She would be much better off running for Cubin's at-large House seat, which was just barely saved this year in normally deep-red Wyoming.
I don't think Tom Kean, Jr. is the best pick for NJ if Lautenberg retires (again). The state Supreme Court gave him an issue on a silver platter with its "legalize gay marriage or civil unions" decision, and Kean fumbled it by agreeing with Menendez. Are there any well-known House members or big-city Republican mayors who could run for an open Senate seat if Lautenberg retires?
Maybe we shouldn't "forget about" RI, but try to convince Governor Carcieri to run for the Senate.
As for George Allen, he needs some time out of the limelight to rebuild his image after the disastrous "macaca" remark, possibly helping to recruit solid conservative candidates in other states, like he did so well during the 2004 cycle as NRSC chairman.
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
AR - I wish there was a deeper bench in Arkansas, but there doesn't seem to be one. I think Asa would be an excellent Senator, although, perhaps he should sit out Mark Pryor and run against Blanche Lincoln. I could live with Huckabee knocking off Pryor if Asa Hutchinson took the other senate seat.
RI - If Carcieri runs, he will need to run against freshman Sheldon Whitehouse in 6 years. Jack Reed cannot be beat. He is tremendously popular there. Carcieri knows this and wouldn't even dream of trying.
WY - I'd support Lynn Cheney for the House seat, as well, but I'd rather see her tackle Hillary in the Senate. I want an all Cheney Wyoming Congressional Delegation. LOL. Dick and Lynn as Senators and their daughter Elizabeth as the House representative. :-)
NJ - I think that our choices in NJ are probably between Tom Kean Jr. and Christine Todd Whitman. I'd rather have Kean thatn Whitman, although I'm interested in learning more about this U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie fellow.
The Republicans are in big trouble statewide here. Asa didn't just get trounced by Beebe, every Republican who ran statewide was trounced. In a state where region still matters more than party (at least in statewide races) NW Republicans simply have not been able to compete statewide. The Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party has had success with Huckabee and the late Wynn Rockefeller, but they simply have not been able to build quality candidates. In the state legislature, the Democratic majority is overwhelming. To add to the problems, the small Republican caucus is split between people like Dave Bisbee who is an outstanding Republican legislator, and irresponsible pork grabbing good ol' boys. Essentially what happens is that the decent Representatives from both parties hash things out, and then try to hold the nuttier elements in line.
Add to that the fact that the Pryor name still carries a great deal of weight in this state, and that Pryor is conservative on most social issues, and I don't think even Huckabee would have much of a chance. So unless Karl Malone moves in (he owns a lot of timber land) Democrats will hold Arkansas's Senate seat. Blanche Lincoln, who comes up for re-election in '10, is more vulnerable. I suspect if Huckabee is interested in the Senate, he'll go after Lincoln.
The GOP needs to be strong in recruitment in '08, this was a big reason why we did so badly in '06.
I think a Hillary nomination will pull the stronger Republican candidates out of the woodwork, knowing that this election cycle, it's very good to be a Republican, and the stronger Democrats will stay away from 2008, knowing this is not their year.
I think you'll se a lot of DEM retirement, especially in the Red States.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Coleman will cruise to reelection if they are foolish enough to put Franken up against him. I fear any random no name Democrat a whole lot more than a Franken candidacy, who has about as much going for him as Wendy Wilde did.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson
Louisiana went very well for the GOP this year from what I could tell.
Franken's campaign would mark the only thing he has done that was funny.
If you often find yourself arguing the exceptions rather than the rule you just might be a Democrat.
-CommonCents
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
That act is even unfunny by SNL standards, which is saying a heck of a lot.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson
According to this article Cochran will decide in 2007 on whether to retire or not. If he runs, he'll definitely win. If he retires, look for 3rd District Congressman Chip Pickering (son of borked judge Charles Pickering) to be the GOP nominee.
On the Dem side, former AG Mike Moore (the genius behind suing the eeeevil tobacco companies in the mid '90s) will only run in a race if he is assured a victory, so I doubt he'll run. Fourth District Congressman Gene Taylor, the conservative-ish Democrat from the Gulf Coast, is mentioned in the post, though it's hard to see him leaving his cushy seat. The district is heavily Republican, but Taylor has won very handily for years against token candidates.
Deo Vindice
Good luck recruiting Mr. Ravenel to run for the Senate seat in the primary against Sen. Graham. He has already promised that he would not challenge him. He should fulfill this promise.
I understand that some are upset with Graham's willingness to work with his Democratic colleagues. However, I think this is the correct spirit. He is ready to vote on the Haynes nomination if it comes up for a vote. There is bipartisan resistance to this nomination because of unanswered question about Haynes' role in development of the offensive detainee policies.
Graham is a reliable vote for conservative issues. There were two SCOTUS nominees and some circuit court nominees approved under the deal. Are you sure you would have wanted to go forward with the nuclear option now that the Senate is controlled by Democrats? The nominees should get an up or down vote once all concerns by members of the committee are successfully answered.
Sen. Graham does his very best to represent the state of South Carolina in the Senate. There is room for criticism, but it is because we all have hones disagreements and I support those who make decisions that are independent and different from what their constituents may desire, or I may desire, for that matter.
Ravenel needs to fulfill his promise and complete his term as Treasurer!
Conservatism without a conscience is an ideology without a purpose.
I maintain challenging Graham will be doing the same thing that Democrats did to Joe Lieberman. Besides, don't you think Ravenel will have a governor's chair waiting for him in 2010?
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"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
Delaware used to be split or even leaning Republican, but now it's Democrat territory. There are few prominent Republicans to run for most statewide races. Democrats are building a bench with Markell & Biden Jr. Bob Valihura is a state representative that might make a good candidate. He's not as conservative as I am, but he is a good guy. I know a couple that's very anti-Bush (everything is a Halliburton conspiracy) that had a Valihura lawn sign. Maybe that's anecdotal crossover support. There are so few R's in high profile positions the nominee will have to be someone less well known.
Now would be a good time for RSers to find state house, state senate, and other possible candidates for Senate. Please use the comments to throw out ideas.
Social Security Choice - Club For Growth