Some Bump
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
That Democratic Presidential nomination contest must have been more damaging than I thought it would be. I had figured that once matters cam to an end, the Democrats would rally fairly quickly around Barack Obama and that given the problems with the Republican brand, independent would flock to the Obama campaign as well.
Voters are closely divided between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted June 12-14, with 44% of national registered voters favoring Obama for president and 42% backing McCain.
Obama had led by as many as seven percentage points in the first few days following Hillary Clinton's departure from the race. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Although the margin between Obama and McCain is now similar to what it was in the last few weeks of the Democratic primary race, the structure of the race looks slightly different than at any other time this year as a result of the relatively high percentage of voters -- 15% -- not favoring either major-party candidate. This includes 7% of voters who say they are undecided and 8% who say they will not vote for either candidate (including 1% who volunteer they will vote for another specific candidate).
I am sure that the McCain campaign hopes that people continue to think this election will end in an easy win for Obama. The more arrogant the Obama campaign gets about what it believes will be the eventual outcome, the more lackadaisical it will be in addressing what appear to be serious problems with its support in the electorate--problems that may be more serious still if we consider a pool of likely voters instead of merely registered ones.
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Some Bump 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
The core Hillary supporters - the Emily's list, affluent highly educated women of a certain age - will end up with Obama. In the end, he's their logical candidate, on board with them ideologically.
The folks who used to work in factories that have now closed, who like to hunt, who line up at the communion rail each Sunday - that's a different story. These people broke for Hillary over Obama, but you sense that most of them wished there was someone else on the ballot, and that Hillary was merely the better of two not very good choices. It is not clear to me that if Obama walked into the bars where they drink, he would make many friend.
I think these folks are in play, and could be where the election gets decided.
In terms of campaign arrogance, I don't think McCain can assume Obama will drop the ball like that. Obama's campaign has been well run at a technical, nuts and bolts, level, and, in the places I go, seems to be actively working at a grassroots level even though the primaries have ended. I think McCain needs a plan where he wins it rather than waiting for Obama to get cocky and lose it.
Barack Obama may not have the easier task of reeling in "disillusioned party members". Clinton supporters are passionate, energized, and most are more deeply and personally offended by the Obama campaign than Republicans understand.
I am one of those very dedicated Clinton supporters who traveled on my own dime to many primary states to advocate for my candidate. On the campaign trail through Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, and South Dakota I encountered voter after voter who offered, unsolicited, the vehement pronouncement that if Senator Clinton did not get the nomination, they would vote for John McCain. Senator McCain has far greater support from Democrats than you are giving him credit for. While we disagree with him, we also trust him as an honorable man who stands by his principles, even when it is to his disadvantage. We honor his service to our country.
I am a dedicated liberal progressive Democrat who has always been an active and contributing member of year round political clubs and campaigns. As such, I have been your loyal opposition, and I am sure, will continue to be on most matters of policy. But I, who have never voted for a Republican in my entire life, will be supporting Senator McCain this election because I understand in frightening detail the degree of corruption and election fraud the Obama Chicago political tradition brings into domination of the Democratic Party, and will bring to our nation should he win the presidency. Many devoted Clinton Democrats are standing with me. We rather do what is right, than win unjustly.
We Clinton supporters are horrified at the campaign tactics of threats of violence, voter intimidation, and vote theft we witnessed used against our candidate everywhere we went, and we know that those tactics will be brought to bear against Republican candidates all over the nation, should the Chicago wing of the Democratic party take over. Free and fair elections will be under threat for the indefinite future, should the Obama machine win the executive branch of government at the same time Democrats control both Houses of Congress, eliminating any oversight or watchdog function. Please do not underestimate the threat this poses to our democracy. Ethical, honest Democrats are being purged from our party for objecting to this coup, and we will no longer be able to police our own, or contain them.
I would implore all Republicans to make their peace with the campaign of John McCain if you can find the composure in your minds and hearts to stand with him against this Obama takeover.
Please do not be mislead by Obama rhetoric, he is not "post partisan" and there is nothing respectful of others in his arrogance. We know him far more intimately than Republicans do, and his election does not bode well for our country.
If we as liberal Democrats can travel the huge ideological distance to support Senator McCain, we hope that those of you who will disagree with him in part will also travel that path for the long term good of our country. Your choice today will have ramifications far beyond this one imminent election.
The Democratic Party is quickly becoming the undemocratic party, please let us unite under John McCain to prevent them turning us into an undemocratic nation. Far more of us Clinton supporters will be at your side than you may realize.
Thank you for reading the words of someone you may have at times considered an enemy.
...I'm with ya.
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The overriding rule for Radical Socialists is that there are no rules (the end justifies the means) while using others' rules against them.
Do you have an unclosed italics tag on your sig line? Everything under your entry is all messed up with italics.
Unfair. Unbalanced. Unmedicated. -- IMAO
I'll try to fix it for you. Until we switch to 3.0 (which will automatically fix this stuff) you can close tags in later comments.
Now also found at The Minority Report
Most Republicans DO agree with what you are stating and support McCain for the same reasons.
Don't mistake a conservative website as representing 70 million Republicans all across the country, just like Daily Kos does not accurately represent all the tens of millions of democrats-
some like you are indeed patriots and free thinkers.
Welcome aboard!
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment"- Barack Carter Obama
So people really see Obama's character as that deficient? I looked at where both Hillary and Obama stood on issues and couldn't see where you could drive in a wedge with a maul. I guess Barak really does run a nasty back office operation...
At a rate of 6,000 earmarks per spending bill, Speaker Pelosi is selling America's future to the special intrest groups.
Frequently has a LOT of die hard Hillary supporters. But they're also clearly NOT going to support BHO in the general election. They cite his lack of accomplishments / experience as well as some indications that he has a hard time with being honest and forthright. There are a LOT of issues where John McCain and I strongly disagree. But with McCain, he's at least a "what you see is what you get" kind of guy.
Lost in Texas............
Thanks for the welcome here from everyone, I appreciate it.
This new ABC News/ WAPO poll shows that 24% of Clinton supporters plan to vote for John McCain, and 13% will either vote for someone else or not vote at all.
So 37% of Clinton voters are refusing to vote for BO, even after Senator Clinton's endorsement of him. That's HUGE. Clinton received 18 million votes. 37% is enough to flip the election to McCain, and there are over 80 anti-Obama Democratic online groups which have formed in the past two weeks to organize opposition to him.
At the open house for Clinton supporters at Senator McCain's Arlington campaign headquarters he basically told us we need to get OH, MI, PA, and NH for him. We heard him loud and clear, and had already narrowed it down to the same few states. If we just focus on the Clinton supporters in those few states, and maintain the 37% refusal rate in them, McCain will take the election.
When you think about it that way, it doesn't sound all that hard, now does it? We believe the BO juggernaut can be stopped. Clinton stopped him even while being demonized by the media, called racist, and being out spent by 2, 3, and 4 to 1 in all the last 13 primary states, she won both the pledged delegates and popular vote.
Don't fall for the "BO is unbeatable" routine the media will foist on you. We Clinton supporters just lived through months of it, and we continued to win, even when everyone but FOX News was saying Clinton was dead. It took all sorts of buy offs and shenanigans to thwart our delegate count, and put BO over the top. Meanwhile we trounced him even in South Dakota, where he was long favored to win by a huge margin. That is just their psychological warfare, laugh at it. The general election doesn't have caucuses to steal votes from, and he cannot win in a real election.
...the way the Obama campaign is promoting their ridiculous "you're a racist is you don't vote for Barack" slogan, those poles could have a 10+ point Bradley/Wilder/Zogby effect this year. People don't want to have to defend the many legitimate reasons not to vote for him when the snap-judgement by some pollster is going to be follow-up questions about racism.
I think America is very ready for an African-American president but not a radical socialist one.
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The overriding rule for Radical Socialists is that there are no rules (the end justifies the means) while using other' rules against them.
this isn't college football where you hope the other side is vastly overconfident and lackadaisical..
in an ELECTION the person who is ahead in the polls usually wins. The media begin to set the narrative of victory- which means INCREASED fundraising and volunteerism for the candidate who is the "winning team" and LESS fundraising and voluneerism for the candidate that looks like a loser.
This has all been proven over the past 50 years. Do YOU want to stand in the rain or make boring phone calls for a candidate you know is going to be a sure loser?!
NO candidate wants to be portrayed as a definite loser, that dries up the money, dries up the volunteers, and leads to most people when they go into the voting booth wanting to be on the "winning side"..
I find it hard to believe you haven't heard of this theory over the course of the last thirty years..
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment"- Barack Carter Obama
The Hillary democrats are still bitter about Barack being the nominee. Both Obama and McCain have problems with disillusioned party members- McCain for his maverick status (I'm really tiring of that word, btw) and Barack for preventing the country from having its first female President (as I think Hillary supporters would put it). I think the election may hinge upon who does the better job reeling back in their missing supporters.
I'm guessing Barack will have the potentially easier task. I think he'll win over Hillary supporters if he keeps emphasizing McCain would appoint judges to overturn Roe vs Wade. If he's smart he'll emphasize this without saying he would do the opposite- this might charge the social conservatives and make the GotV effect a wash for both sides. Perhaps it would be most successful if he takes the stance that the case is settled and need not be revisited- make it an issue of jurisprudence rather than ideology, if you will.
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Out with the Oak King.