Some quick observations on last night's Democratic race.

By Moe Lane Posted in Comments (52) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

(Exit polls [designated EP] came from here (see also MyDD); Zogby's results [designated Z] from here; and actual primary results [designated A] here.

Alabama: EP O60/C37 (A O56/C42)
Arkansas: EP C72/O26 (A C70/C27)
Arizona: EP O51/C45 (C51/O42)
California: EP C50, O47 (Z O49/C36) (A C52/O42)
Connecticut: EP O53/C45 (A O51/C47)
Delaware: EP O56/C42 (A O53/C43)
Georgia: (Z O49/C29) (A O67/C31)
Illinois: EP O70/C30 (A O65/C35)
Massachusetts: EP O50/C48 (C56/O41)
Missouri: EP O50/C46 (Z O45/C42) (A O49/C48)
New Jersey: EP O53/C47 (Z C46/O41) (A C54/O44)
New York: EP C56/O43 (A C57/O40)
Oklahoma: EP C61/O31 (A C55/O31)
Tennessee: EP C52/O41 (A C54/O41)

Real quick: first, Zogby crashed and burned. Thank goodness: I really enjoyed mocking that polling firm. One wonders how they got California in particular so wrong.

Second: my last statistics class was over a decade ago, and it mostly concentrated on how to tell when people are lying to you about statistics (a very useful skill to have when you're fending off database vendors, which is why they taught it in a graduate library science program). That being said, the consistent under-performance of Senator Obama wrt exit polls suggests that, God help us, maybe there really is a Bradley Effect in play. I'd hate to think that of a political party that my parents belong to, but, well...


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Some quick observations on last night's Democratic race. 52 Comments (0 topical, 52 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

Let's just say that I was considerably less nerdy in grad school than I was in college, and leave it at that. OTOH, not having the degree translated to about 5K/year more when I went looking for work: recruiters appreciated the skill set, and were relieved to hear that I wasn't going to up and quit when a library job came along.

OTGH, grad school is also how I met my wife (undergrad in medieval studies / mechanical engineering at the time), which was easily worth the student loan debt right there.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

I actually dated a librarian for a time and got to know several of her co-workers pretty well. I was pretty generally stunned by the degree to which they all matched up with the stereotype.

-exits

My girlfriend is actually a professional librarian with an MLS. It's kind of hip now.

Don't know if you've seen "Juno," but there's a pretty hilarious line about girls who want to grow up to be librarians.

...if it doesn't have an exploding starship in it (or similar trope), I don't go to see it.

I stretch the point for ninja.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Must have been totally incompetent in Cali. His final poll on the GOP side there had Romney up 40-33 - actual result was McCain 42 Romney 34. That's a lot of swing. Though I will give him credit for correctly predicting Huck's share there (12%).

Some of them were off but at least in the same area code. California was like he was polling different state.

The side note to the Bradley effect on exit poll data is perhaps this.

A voter may not be comfortable looking a poller in the face saying they did not vote for a black candidate. So maybe they do not lie, but they choose not to speak on it.

VS primary states.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...due to their better ground operation there. Clinton was more narrowly focused on the big primary states.

...there knowing he could pick up troves of delegates countering her name recognition leads in the big states. Its about retail politics vs. large market politics.

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- No issues
- No record
- No Bad News In Iraq
- No Clinton or Bush to run against

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

(And look I'm not doubting there's still a campaign to run. Votes don't count until their cast.)

That is, if he's lucky. :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

...the next three weeks he's got the primary schedule all on his side.

He'll win BIG in at least two of the three elections on Sunday and probably eek out the third.

He's outraising her 3 to 1 and they're ALREADY saying they are going to hit or break their 32 million from January in February.

Me MAY be the nominee by the top of March.

He WILL be the nominee by the end of April.

on race in the Democrat party ? Their rhetoric and actions have been out of phase as long as I can remember
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...than any member of the opposing party.

He BEAT a white woman in Caucasian votes in California.

If that is hypocrisy, guilty as charged.

You may think it useful to underestimate and stigmatize your opponent based on your notions (and not the facts on the ground) but it won't help you in November.

I find it hard to fathom why you have internalized a charge against an organization that you are a member of.

Your party represents 40% of the voting population (give or take) Are you claiming to be bigot free ? Further your party has made race issues the sine qua non of your party. A party which has made a consistent habit of perpetuating problems so they may be demagogued.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

We got lots of folk who will say one thing and do the other.

But to suggest that the PARTY is hypocritical feels disingenuous.

The Democratic party, during my almost four decade lifetime at least, has elected African-Americans and Hispanic and Women and Homosexuals.

So when you say...

"Was there ever any doubt that there would be Hypocrissy by Joliphant on race in the Democrat party ?"

...it is equivalent, to me, of "chickenhawking".

If you wanted to say that the republican party and republican candidates haven't done enough to support the war it would be a different matter.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

"Was there ever any doubt that there would be Chickenhawking on the war in the Repiblic party?"

Would that be allowed to fly here?

Personally I don't even understand the charge.

Are you asking if there is any doubt the party would assume it as an official position ? (Hard to do as the party is not a veteran ?)

Are you asking if there is any doubt that individual republican veterans might try the tactic ?
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...by carefully gerrymandering their districts until they are assured victory; and, frankly, it shows in the generally low caliber of your Party's African-American representatives in Congress.

Mind you, we let you do it, which is a judgment on us - but you still did it.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

John Edwards is your discrepancy there. He pulled enough absentee votes before he dropped out to have more of a showing that he earned on primary day alone.

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That makes sense but I haven't seen any numbers for it. Is there a source somewhere that breaks down the California votes by absentee/non-absentee?

that around 775,000 votes in the California Dem Primary are being thrown out. Apparently, if a voter who wasn't a registered Democrat wanted to vote in the Dem Primary, they had to fill in an extra "cross-vote" bubble in their ballot. None of the election workers told voters about the extra bubble, and so 775,000 votes are being thrown out.

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

that Democrats always have to count on voters that are apparently too stupid to fill out a simple ballot correctly?

Personally, I think it's a good way to exclude them.

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the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

who wanted to vote in the Democratic primary. The problem was strictly limited to the Los Angeles area. I don't they ever had this kind of ballot design before.

In other areas, they actually had different DTS ballots for those voters who wanted to vote in the Democratic primary and for those who didn't.

Maybe in LA somebody tried to save money by only having one DTS ballot, though it still doesn't make sense why they'd require a bubble fill-in to count the vote. After all, if someone doesn't want to vote, they just don't

My question is why nobody ever picks up these idiotic ballot designs ahead of time?

And Rightly So!

After 20+ states, a black candidate is roughly tied for delegates with the Clinton juggernaut of campaign resources.

I hope you aren't pinning our November hopes on a couple of points discrepancy between actual results and notoriously unreliable exit polls.

HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

If exit polls are right, does that mean John Kerry has been our president the last 4 years? In California at least (and maybe this is what happened in AZ, NJ, and MA) it appears the exit polls did not capture the effect of the large number of absentee voters who overwhelmingly favored Clinton. The magnitude of those errors, not duplicated in other states, points much more strongly to a problem with the exit polling than it does to the Bradley Effect.

How many under-performing polls for your guy would it take for you to admit the possibility that your Party doesn't much take to the idea of electing Black men?

:holding up hand: I'm not participating in an argument; I already know that you disagree with the thesis. I just want to know how many incidents it would take to make you stop disagreeing. Treat it as a hypothetical, if that's what you need.

Moe

PS: Six thousand, four hundred and six. There. Now you don't have to waste time coming up with a counter-question to distract me from noticing that you didn't answer mine. Aren't I nice? :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

For me to say that the Democratic Party* has a "problem with electing black men," I'd imagine it would take, say, not having a potential nominee who won 49.8% of the vote yesterday against a well-organized, nationally known front-runner. That would be a start. However, that's not the case.

If Obama, all through the process, was doing as well in the polls as he is but going down to Giuliani-esque embarrassing defeats, I'd also start asking these questions. But he's not. He's won a lot of races in a lot of places.

How many bad exit polls would it take for me to say that the Democratic Party* had "a problem with electing black men"? Lots, accompanied by correlating data.

*I'd believe that a small but non-negligible, and thus statistically significant, portion of our party - indeed, of either party, what with it being a big country with two big parties and all kinds of bad people in it - has this problem. But that's not what you asked.

...and I'm sure that CA Pol Junkie will be likewise thankful for your efforts to get him off of the hook. :)

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

And I'll take that in the spirit it's intended.

I do feel I have to say this, though. Usually, Moe, when you write something that gets me all twitchy and mad and jumping to spar back, it's because you're right - for instance, about the haplessness of our Congressional leadership. Here, though, while I respect your sincerity, I think you're pretty severely off-base. I guess we'll agree to disagree here.

As horrible as all polling has been of the primaries, I don't think you can divine much using the data. Clearly polling error is far greater than the Bradley Effect, so it is not possible to divine the magnitude of the latter.

First and last time that sentence gets used at Redstate.

CNN exit polls give some different results. In Arizona for example, CNN shows Hillary with 49% and Obama with 43%. This is much closer to the actual result (C51/O42) than the poll listed above.

Also, doesn't Hillary have a strong lead among old people? Since old people are disproportionally represented among absentee and early voters, couldn't this be the source of the discrepancy? That is, the discrepancy over and above the margin of error (which is not listed above, and is likely to be high).

Assuming a random sample, the MoE should be at least 3%. Higher if the sample was not random (which it couldn't have been, since only people who chose to respond were counted).

I'm not sure you can claim a Bradley effect by the selective citation of polls. I've seen the Survey USA polls were very close to actual results. If there is one lesson I've drawn from this it it that Zogby is a poor pollster and SUSA is good.

it polled only in English. SUSA polled in English and Spanish.

You can't make stuff like this up.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

 
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