Super Tuesday: Afternoon Open Thread II
Predictions, Results, Etc
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (178) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Keep the Super Tuesday convo going. Predictions, polls, and results go here.
UPDATE (by Dan McLaughlin): Hey, what's an open thread without a picture?
UPDATE by Jeff: Have another!
[UPDATE 3:56] Keep the Super Tuesday convo going. Predictions, polls, and results go here.
[UPDATE 3:50] What to watch tonight. States that are close or have little polling (starting in the East) are DE, GA, TN, AL, MO, MN, ND, MT and CA.
McCain leads in polls or Intrade in DE, GA, TN, AL, MO and MN while Romney leads in ND and MT while CA is tied.
If Romney can pull out some Southern wins (GA, TN, AL), he will be in a good position to stay in the race although probably still behind in delegates. While if McCain can sweep the South, he may end it today.
MO is a swing state with a diverse population like FL (urban, rural, Southern, Midwestern) and it is a 3-way race. It is also winner take all for a good chunk of delegates. Watch MO (like FL) to see how the candidates do nationally.
Note that Romney is lucky that Huck is still in the race, WV notwithstanding. Romney would be uncompetitive in the South and MO if Huck dropped out. But Huck may take away just enough McCain voters to let Romney win 2 to 4 of these Southern+MO states.
Finally, CA will be close but as a form of proportional representation unless someone wins by 8+ percentage points, the delegates will be split. Nevertheless, how the 173 delegates get split is important to the final score after 2/5.
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Super Tuesday: Afternoon Open Thread II 178 Comments (0 topical, 178 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
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We're all in the same boat, fellas.
But our shenanigans are cheeky and fun.
His shenanigans are cruel and tragic.
Which wouldn't make them shenanigans, at all, really.
-Evil shenanigans!
...Because of the licking of McCain's boots by Huckabee.
McCain is a closet Dem, and Huck is just pathetic.
Say whatever you like. Those are my thoughts.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
Who were McCain's supporters supposed to break for? Romney? I don't understand what exactly you wanted to have happen, and any plausible reason why it SHOULD have happened except that you happen to want it.
Also, just as fa as him staying in the race at all: if Huckabee even has a shot at VP this is a good gamble, and represents a minimal level of "bootlicking" (it's kind of meaningless but he WON WV, after all, and that's a good bootlick!) for the potential payoff.
I don't understand what you think should have happened.
Perhaps if Romney didn't alienate all the other candidates, they might not gang up on him. Romney made his bed and now he has to lie in it.
If it was "Romney/Huck" you'd be telling us how brillant Romney was.
Quit whining about holding calls and play the game.
But I guess this attitude comes from the top, down.
"Strength and Honor."
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity."
The Huck/McCain alliance will ensure that the only possible outcome for the nomination is McCain (or by some fluke, Huck). Romney brought this on himself with his attack ads though.
I'm a huge chess player, and it has been my experience that even when you are low on material, or have no advantage or control of the center of the board, victory can still be gained by either a regrouping of your line, or by a misstep of your opponent.
Mitt is still in the running. This is not over by a long shot.
And as for the attack ads, isn't that part of the game? Did not McCain launch his own attacks? (Like that pathetic "timetable" nonsense.) Did not Huckabee launch his own attacks? (Like the ad he pulled, but then showed everyone the ad in explaining why he pulled it.) Everyone attacks. Ads are one way of doing it.
And if Huck had Mitt's cash, you KNOW he'd be attacking 24/7.
This is not over.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
What happened here would be something along the lines of a knight's fork taking the rook by threatening the queen at the same time.
Romney just got punked.
The game ain't over....
Jim Tomasik
It's been a strange primary season, but it's over yet. I do agree that Multi-Mitt has sunk his own ship and any effort on his part to re-re-invent himself will back-fire from now on.
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
That's right! How dare a political candidate point out disagreements with a rival candidate on issues. The right way to run a campaign is to make moronic statements about the other guy's religion, or to speculate about vast plots against him by shady companies and conservative leaders. (Huckabee)
Another right way to run a campaign is to flat out lie about your opponent and claim they sided with Hillary on Iraq. Or falsely claim another leader has endorsed you. (McCain)
Flat out garbage.
McCain will win: NY, NJ, Conn, MO, DE, IL, TN, AZ,& OK.
Romney will win: MA, MN, ND, MT, UT, ID, CO, AK, GA, & CA.
Huckabee Will win: AR, WV, AL.
That mean absolutely nothing. Nevada, and Wyoming also....great job playing the bias card while actual bias gets you 4 of your golds! Too bad for Romney the whole country gets to vote and he has NO CHANCE at being the nominee.
Utah voted 84% for Conservatives in the last presidential election. That is the only "bias" you are seeing. And none of those votes were for a member of the LDS Church.
Keep telling those states they mean nothing though...that is one way to guarantee that NO Republican wins the White House.
I mean that they mean nothing in terms of proving Romney is electable.
I like those states and probably will be buying property in one of them within the next year.
Born and raised in Idaho, and now I'm in Mass, where sometimes people are surprised I can walk and breathe at the same time. So I've been kinda touchy lately.
And I recommend buying property there..it is beautiful. On a side note, I was talking to my cab driver once (he was foreign) and when he heard I was from Idaho he said, "Oh, you're from the REAL America."
So I know that cable news and the networks don't release exit polling before the polls close, but are there other sources?
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
But not much, and probably not before polls close.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
Could any Romney supporter please explain to me, in detail, why, in a state convention set up with this type of horse-trading in mind, horse-trading is somehow "sleazy"?
I'm not being snarky, I would really like an good answer.
Because it was a dirty sleezy backroom dirty trick. Two against one isn't what I call fair politics. What they couldn't do in a fair contest, they did in colliusion. It just shows why Huckabee is here. Not to win, but to be McCain's Lacky.
On the first ballot, Romney did not have a majority. If I understand it correctly, you have to get a majority of the delegates to win. If Romney was at 41%, wouldn't he have had to make some sort of a deal with someone in order to pick up those extra delegates?
McCain is pretty good at these backroom deals and another attempt to slip something through.
A day after the Bob Dole letter......
This is not a completely unusual situation, and McCain is certainly not the 1st to benefit from it.
Sleezy would have been Huckabee giving to McCain.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
The votes may have to go up, not down, but I'm not sure. Was still a good point.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
It's all sour grapes now...but seriously, there is a separate thread for West Virginia...
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
What evidence is there that this convention was set up in such as way as to specifically encourage campaigns to order their voters around if they aren't in the top two? I would assume the point was to allow voters of the 3rd and 4th most popular candidate to choose their favorite out of the top 2 rather than be lead around on a leash to create a result where the most popular candidate loses.
This just demonstrates a flaw in West Virginia's system.
Only the most popular first selection. Not the most popular first or second choice. In a convention where second and third choice matters, that's not a good thing for your guy.
Was that McCain people already had instructions to do this. It was pre-meditated. That is what was really wrong about it
Congrats to the McCain people for using the Huckabee voters to deny Romney a victory when he had the most support.
The key states will be Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and California. Romney needs to win California and probably two of the other three to have a good night. McCain's going to get the most delegates because New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are winner-take-all, but Romney would still have a great shot if he wins the states I mentioned. The states that have yet to vote are very conservative, states that Romney will do very well in.
I think that this is going to cause even more backlash.
X-Angel
is not sleazy. I am a Romney guy. It's politics.
McCain-Huckabee 2008 looks like a done deal. Too bad. Guarantees President Clinton or President O'Bama (whadya mean he ain't Irish?).
I just got to wonder, if McCain wins this way (with the help of Huck), do they really expect Romney supporters to turn arround and support him in the General Election, I don't think so.
McCain and Huckabee are going to get the blame in the end, when they lose big time in the General Election.
Lets hope that we get a real conservative (Romney), who didn't need to make dirty backroom deals to get the nomination.
McCain's delegates had to vote for someone, and enough of them decided to vote for Hukabee to give him the victory. Who did you expect them to vote for, Mitt.
Now I know why Hannity has to repeat those talking points over and over and over.
Because:
1. Hannity has convinced himself that McCain is evil and he sees all of the actions of McCain and his supporters in that light.
2. He is preaching to the Amen corner and he likes hearing the Amens.
3. He's not a bright guy.
NC
"3. He's not a bright guy."
He goes up against Colmes every night. If I play only my seven-year old in chess, I will not improve.
lose with Romney. Romney is a pathological liar. Lying is like second nature to him. I would never support him.
_________________________________________________
We're all in the same boat, fellas.
But our shenanigans are cheeky and fun.
His shenanigans are cruel and tragic.
Which wouldn't make them shenanigans, at all, really.
-Evil shenanigans!
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
he said we would lose with a Romney ticket
Only a ticket that includes Huck will win, because the grassroots base behind Huck will evaporate if he drops out, it is the most successful such base in history and it is still growing.
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
You're the type that says "I don't like turkey, so even though almost everyone else likes turkey and it's traditional, we must have ham on Thanksgiving or I won't show up." Did it ever occur to you that the people supporting McCain or Huckabee may dislike your candidate as much or more than you dislike theirs! And yet I have yet to come across a thread saying that if Romney wins the nomination I won't vote...Or "oh woe is me, if Romney wins the nomination it'll be the end of the Republican coalition bringing together conservatives of all stripes"... You and your ilk have spent a week savaging McCain and Huckabee, and I am so off put by the behavior of "true conservatives" (though I have never voted Democratic) that if Romney wins the nomination my support for him will be tepid at best and you can bet that many more moderate Repubs/Independents than myself will vote Dem... and the only ones you'll have to blame for the defeat in Nov is yourselves.
And I have to listen more to AdamC. I first got onto Redstate due to the amnesty bill and I've learned a lot since then. So, my first real introduction to McCain was in trying to oppose what he was trying to pull. Bottomline: hard to overcome. But if he will build those 'darn fences, and start some attrition through enforcement I will be happy.
Later this week, we'll see blogs where the folks start to come around...depending on tonight.
Erik
b/c they weren't babies...
First, it was 2000, and second, McCain lost fair and square. Third, it was one on one, not two on one. Fourth, Bush was popular with Conservative, McCain is not.
Remember being told that "money is the great equalizer in politics"? The other Republicans were running against Romney and his money, but Mitt Romney's money was not able to overcome is lack of appeal as a candidate.
And this bodes well for conservatism, in my view, because it would show that we cannot be fooled.
Again, b/c they were not babies... they manned-up and ate their lumps and saw who would be better for the country.... clearly romney supporters reflect the lack of backbone their candidate is afflicted with.
McCain supporters don't seem to get is that they're asking a large chunk of the conservative base to support out of loyalty to the Party, a guy who in the last 8 years has taken any number of positions that were at odds with the Party.
You just can't have it both ways. If you like McCain's maverick ways and think that they show principle, that's great. We can agree to disagree. If you want people who disagree with him philisophically to support him out of loyalty to the Party, then it was incumbent upon him to support the party at key times and on key issues. He didn't do that.
Now you're asking us to support a guy out of loyalty who wasn't himself loyal. That's like asking us to watch him flip us off all these years and accept that he was really just waving at us.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
that was not supportive of conservatives and the party. Regardless of whether you think it was a good vote or a bad one, do you really believe that voting against a major component of your newly-elected President's economic package, i.e. tax cuts, and being on of only 2 GOP senators to do so (the other being Linc Chafee) demonstrates party loyalty.
I don't want to go through 'the list' again 'cause it's been gone through ad nauseum but he has taken anti-party stances on very significant issues numerous times. If you believe that this shows independence and virtue, great! I view it differently but we can agree to disagree 'cause no one made either of us God.
But from a logical standpoint, of all the arguments to use for disaffected conservatives to vote for McCain in the general, you can't use the 'party loyalty' meme because it cuts both ways. McCain's campaigning for a select number of GOP candidates doesn't obviate the fact that not only was he not with them on numerous occasions, but he lead the charge in many cases on positions the opposite of what the Party leadership wanted.
Collins, Snowe, Specter, et al are no more conservative than McCain. But I don't have the antipathy toward them that I do for McCain because a) they hail from purple states whereas John hails from a bright red one, & b) they didn't lead the charge against the party, nor did they engage in vulgar tirades against those who took positions different from them.
That's why so many anti-McCain detractors get so vitriolic about him. It's the way he's treated us.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Thank you for your comments, but I am going to have to disagree. I don't recall many conservatives *not* coming out to vote for Bush in 2000 or 2004 when the president's deviations from conservative orthodoxy came with a heaping dose of "vote for this or you're not compassionate" (this happened expressly with the prescription drug program.) All I'm saying is that huge numbers of voters, including conservatives vote strategically, as much against the opposing candidate as for the one you back.
Rush attacks McCain's loyalty, eburke attacks McCain's loyalty...check today's transcripts.
Eventually, all you ditto-heads and Hannity-bobs are going to have to wake up and realize what all of this demonization of McCain really means for the Right. It isn't good.
McCain has been in an important position for many years and has earned the respect of many conservatives (voters included) who want to win these wars we're in. Many of his unpopular positions were in support of a sitting Rupublican president.
Mitt changes his colors on the eve of his election bid and we're supposed to annoint him because Rush Hannity say so? No thanks. I'm not so sure more than half of Huck's supporters would go to Mitt anyway. McCain has ALWAYS been pro-life and pro-gun.
I've lost respect for Rush and the others. I'll never trust them again after what I've witnessed these last few months. It has been disgusting.
If Mitt can't win primaries with 20 million Rush listeners, How is he supposed to win the general?
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
Bravo. I will vote for Romney in the general, if he is the nominee, but that would be solely a "not-Clinton/Obama" vote, not any kind of real, energetic support for Romney himself.
My take on the titans of conservative talk-radio (very belatedly) endorsing Romney is that it is much more about establishing their own preceived power to move votes. If Rush was so hot for Romney, he would have pulled the trigger a long time ago.
you would do the same.
FTR--I am not a ditto-head nor a Hannity-bob as I work during the day and rarely have the chance to listen to anyone on the radio.
Second, the last time I checked, this was a Republican primary and I thought the purpose of a primary was to have a free exchange of ideas as to who we think our best candidate would be. My first choice was Fred. Mitt is my #5 (it's why I've offered to give my endorsement to your least favorite candidate to the highest bidder)
I lay out reasons why I don't believe that McCain is a loyal Conservative or Republican. If you wish to lay out reasons, you have every right to and we can debate them in the arena of ideas.
Name calling brings heat but sheds little light.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
But if you check today's transcripts on Rush's Web site you'll see an amazing coinkidink in the rhetoric I was reacting to and Rush's opening monologue.
I don't pretend to know your mind, so I'll take your word for it. Still, I think my point is valid in a general sense.
I work, too, but I hear his first hour at lunch.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
I didn't catch Rush's first hour...I was busy blogging :-)
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
formed his opinions from his callers...heh. Guess that shows what I know.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
point against his own.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
Really...I've heard him let a caller go on for five minutes only interrupting to ask clarifying questions. I don't listen to him every day, but I really think he is one of the better hosts at letting the other side talk.
If they make a point WELL that is contrary to his, he interrupts and cuts them off.
I've been listening since 1989. Until now, that is... these primaries have disgusted me completely with him and his ilk.
Can't trust him anymore. He went too far feigning disgust with McCain's tactics and excusing Mitt. He also tried to trash McCain's use of his war record, insinuating that McCain had no honor. He compared McCain to Nixon.
McCain speaks of his record because it was so important to the man he became. He never speaks of his son who is fighting even now. Rush can sit back, stroke his Punkin and sob because only Rush knows what a hollow man he really is.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
about things that you know nothing about. At least take a few weeks and listen to Rush before you make idiotic statements.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
Mitt cannot buy the nomination. Along the way to his loss, alot of people have lost my respect for being either 1. Too stupid to see he is a phony or 2. Being mercenaries for hire.
he is for embryonic stemcell research.
"Where I stand does not depend on where I'm standing." Fred D. Thompson
McCain's voting record is consistently pro-life.
Stem cell research is a different question and opens a whole new philosophical argument about where life begins.
True, the pro-life movement didn't want it, but a vote for scietific research does not undo a lifetime of pro-life voting.
It's a moot point now, anyway. McCain won't be turning into a vampire any time soon and forcing medical testing on zygotes.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
It's interesting reading your post, and then seeing the sig line:
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Sitting out the election in November is doing nothing. You may not like McCain, but you have to admit, that he would be far better for the Country (notice, I didn't say party), than either Clinton or Obama. I'm interested in what's best for our country - not for the party. If in the end it comes down to McCain vs Obama or Hillary, good men who know what ought be done, should vote.
election.
Besides, no matter what I decide to do, it will be done on the basis of what I, in my heart, believe is best for my country.
I take my tagline very seriously, and am involved heavily in politics at every level. Thus, I take your snarkiness, and your presumption to tell another person what constitutes "nothing" quite offensively. I have never accused a McCain supporter, or anyone else on this blog, of engaging in behavior which is intentionally deletorious to our country. I may disagree with positions and viewpoints, but I don't make it personal. Ask absentee.
Your belief that somehow the only way that I could reach the conclusion that McCain has been disloyal to the Party and conservatives is by listening to others fill my head with all sorts of ideas because I'm too dense to think for myself. I take great offense at that.
If McCain wins the nomination, there will be concerns I have which will need to be addressed and I will be on here asking for answers from McCain people whom I respect. That will include such people as BlackRepublican, absentee, Adam C and Neil. Your inability to disagree without becoming snarky means that I will not be including you on that list.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
I really wasn't intending to be snarky. It was just that the apparent contradiction struck me Your post led me to believe you would sit the election out if McCain gets the nod. So, I apologize.
My main point is that there have been more than a few people (on both sides) saying that they will sit it out, and IMHO I find that to be completely immature.
I think your tag line is very good, and I completely agree with it.
Not voting would hand the election to the Dems, and that would be far worse than a McCain presidency. He may have went against the party on several issues, but he's with the party on many more and, as I said, would be better for this country than Clinton or Obama. I cannot see how anyone could come to the opposite conclusion.
I'm not sure about your second paragraph. I didn't think that I challenged your point about McCain's disloyalty to the party. My point was regardless of whether or not he was disloyal to the party, he would be better for the country.
In my view, sitting out the election would be doing nothing, and would lead to very bad things for our country.
and apology accepted. I have become disconcerted by the vitriol that has been flying around on here from all sides. I just got done with a post telling Romney folks to get over the whole WV thing. For heavens sake, this is politics. Like I wouldn't have done the same thing if I was McCain.
You are 'talking' with someone who lived in AZ for 13 years and cast numerous votes for John, donated to his campaigns, and walked the streets for him. If that John was running for President this would be a no-brainer.
If you read my McCain Derangement Syndrome post, you will know that beyond the litany of issues which I find disturbing about McCain, I find his temperament even more disturbing. Quite frankly, the way he has treated conservatives, and the downright nasty way he deals with those who disagree with him causes me to question what he would do to those who have opposed him in the past if he's elected the titular head of the Party. IOW, I don't trust him anymore. That's not a very pleasant place to be when I peer over and see Obama and Hillary over the fence.
In my own little world, I fear that McCain's thin-skinned personality could be a setback for the conservative movement for a long time. That's why, if he gets the nomination, who he picks as his VP will be huge for me.
Don't expect that you necessarily agree with all that, but it's what's in my heart. Take care, and I am deeply grateful to be privilieged to live in a country where we have the freedom to discuss our differences in the arena of ideas.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
tactics by claiming that McCain won in FL due to 17% Indys and 3% Dems voting in the supposedly "closed" primary.
I think that your continued assertion of this "fact" from Florida is ridiculous. Give a cite to something other than an anonymous fourth hand anecdotal account of someone who asked the three old ladies on the corner if they were Republicans...
Okay. If that's how you convince yourself Romney is going to win, good for you. Stop resorting to the liberals' tactics of creating KnownFacts.
I responded with:
17% Indy, 3% Dem
80% GOP - tied 33% each for McCain and Romney
Conservatives went for Romney again.Page 4 of the exit polls.
Yes, McCain won because of Indy and Dem voters again.
Any response?
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
other candidates and their supporters that Mitt is quickly becomeing the last choice of both McCain and Huckabee supporters. This bodes very poorly for Mitt.
of millions of regular republican voters across the country. This was simple collusion between campaigns. Not reflective of how regular Huckabee/McCain supporters might feel about Romney.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I speak from my own experience. Mitt was my tentative first choice last summer before I had looked that closely at the candidates, my second choice six months ago after I chose to support Huckabee, ultimately dropped to my third choice behind Huck and Fred and has dropped behind McCain due to both a closer examination of his record and his campaign's behavior since the start of the primary. Nearly every Huckabee supporter I know feels the same way. I personall can't really speak for those who have been McCain guys for a long time.
and both your personal account, and my personal experience are still fully anecdotal.
I was a Rudy guy with Fred #2 and Romney in 3rd. I know other Rudy guys who are now with Romney. Does it mean that most are? Not necessarily.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Romney is the GW Bush supporters favorite candidate. GW Bush's popularity is in the toilet!! How do you expect a candidate like Romney to have a chance? The only Republican that can win in November is one that the Bush haters (60% of the population) could stomach voting for. McCain is that candidate. Romney would get crushed by Obama or Hillary. The Republican party and our current president are not popular, the democrats are energized and the only way to possibly stop Hillary or Obama is McCain. Are all you Romney supporters on crack?
"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson
and yet there's 'no way Romney can win'. Mmm, hmmm.
Kill the terrorists
Protect the borders
Punch the hippies -- Frank J
the Dem's are ready to vote, exceeding Republicans in turnout in all contested races. Bush is hated by the majority of all Americans. Republicans are also despised. All signs point to big Republican loses. How do you rally behind a guy like Romney? Do you just believe he is conservative because he says so. Why should I believe him? No governor of Massachusets should ever be allowed to be president.
"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson
My concern is that when people look at McCain and Obama side-by-side they will see McCain as a cranky old part-of-the-problem Washington insider, then they will look at Obama and see a fresh face offering hope and change.
I heard that John McCain raised $7 million in January while Obama raised $30 million, so that adds to my concern. I don't know if conservatives will be able to muster enough enthusiasm to support a McCain presidential run with their time, money, or even votes.
and when they see Romney they will see the evil CEO out to steal his dreams (think the caddy and the Judge in Caddyshack).
That's what made Huck's line about "the guy who laid you off" so effective. Personally, I don't think it's fair, but it sure plays well with a lot of regular folks.
If McCain can't raise enough money in the general, we'll have no further to look than our own radio dials.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
Romney as a man who lived the American dream and got what he has through hard work and dedication, a man who is now putting his money where his mouth is and trying to make sure that we keep the country on the right track.
What are you using to gauge the effectiveness of Huck's "the guy who laid you off" populist rhetoric? Huck is out of money and trailing far behind Romney and McCain.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
Sure, the guy who is the son of nulti-millionaire CEO of GM and Governor of Michigan vs. guy who's father left him when he was two and was raised by his mom. Mitt's story is that of every American.
Put down whatever you're smoking.
I am not saying horse trading is sleazy, I am just saying that we should not judge the enitre night off of this 1000 person caucus.
X-Angel
and we should judge WV for having a silly convention instead of a normal primary.
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
This is pretty small beer in the overall picture. Have you ever heard "as goes WV, so goes the country"? Neither have I.
Look folks. Mitt will win more than a few states tonight. UT. MA. CO. look pretty solid. Maybe GA. This McCain supporter is pretty convinced at this point that Romney will take CA, though I expect the delegates to split pretty evenly. This race gets clarified tonight, but Romney is not out by a longshot.
about an "Anybody But McCain" vote, but once the "Anybody But Romney" vote appears, it becomes sleazy.
This is politics. The McCain people, the Huckabee people, and the RonPaul people evidently felt that Romney had to be stopped for the good of the party and the country, so they combined forces to do what they felt was the right thing.
Where do they want the McCain people to go?
As far as Huckabee staying in the race, he can do so for whatever reason. It's politics. There is already talk of a McCain/Huckabee ticket, about which we can talk when this Super Tuesday stuff is behind us.
The McCain people, the Huckabee people, and the RonPaul people evidently felt that Romney had to be stopped for the good of the party and the country, so they combined forces to do what they felt was the right thing.
It had nothing to do with the "good of the party and the country" but everything to do with the good of McCain, his wannabe VP Huckabee who scores points with McCain by stopping Romney, and Ron Paul's desire to have some delegates at the Convention (his primary goal).
You can of course be of an opinion that this is "for the good of the party and the country" but it's nowhere near as clearcut as that. 500 colluding party apparatchiks don't translate into your high-winded rhetoric.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I get a bit too heated, so my apologies for going overboard.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
As to being a bell weather for tonight, I couldn't agree more. But, it is 18 delegates that could have been in Romney's column that now are not. Not a huge number, but not trivial either.
McCain does the SuperBowl at the Green Dragon pub. In Boston!
Symbolic of this evening's outcome, I hope. Sorry, McCinsaniacs. :>)
Well, I always thought Huckabee would take West Virgina. The fact that it took a backroom deal for that to happen doesn't bode well for Huckabee's chances in other states, since such a deal is not possible in other states.
whining about Romney's attack Ads. Romney's decision to go after his opponent's record with "attack ads" is standard in this game. The fact is, Romney was the only candidate who could afford attack ads in the early states. At the time, McCain and Huckabe were broke. But as they've proved recently, if they had the funds they'd be doing the same attack ads.
...that turn people off. Luckily the internet and media was able to quickly point out the lies and misinterpretations in those ads and turn them on Mitt.
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
Not sure about calling them lies. He probably was not telling the entire story but that's the point. It's a way of flushing out your opponents record and shifting the burden on the candidate to defend their record.
I do think claiming "Romney is weak on Crime because he had zero executions," in a state where the death penalty is illegal (not to mention Romney fought to bring it back to MA) is more than not telling the entire story.
First, he has every right to do them. You can call them "standard" but they are still attack ads.
Second, if he attacks someone he shouldn't expect them to like him anyway.
Third, when he goes from comparing positions to stating false statement (ex. "amnesty"), then he is really going to create some enemies.
I don't see any McCain ads going "Romney supported abortion, attacked gun owners, and jumped on the homosexual agenda. He's changed his words but how can we trust someone who fought every conservative value we have." I haven't seen those. And if I did, Romney supporters would be pissed. Why are you surprised that Huck and McCain voters don't like Romney for doing something that misleading.
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Like throwing Romney under the bus, claiming he was part of the group waving the flag of surrender? Then, claiming Romney should apologize to the Troops? In my opinion there are negative politics and dirt bag politics. The worst part isn't throwing Romney under the bus (still slimy). No, it's using our troops, who are risking their lives everyday, as part of a dishonest political smear tactic--that's Dirt Bag in my book.
because I don't remember a "flag of surrender" claim. I recall a endorsed timetables claim.
OTOH, McCain has said that Hillary is waiving the "white flag of surrender."
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Attack ads are standard. But, it's annoying when Romney supporters (not saying you) then complain when the other candidates attack Romney or work together to defeat him (and thereby advance their own interests).
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/tnrep8-701.html
Today's poll is looking good for Huck in TN too!
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
Money is the very nature of the Republican party. In EVERY single election before this one Republicans always out fundraised Dems and always held the power with money. However since McCain-Feingold, this took a huge swing at the Republican party. If this bill wasn't in place I can assure you that each candidate would have more money. Don't you think that Chuck Norris would have given Huckabee more money if he could? In fact he said he would in an interview shortly after endorsing Huckabee. Don't you think that McCain's backers would have given more money if they could? So what if Romney has money. Might I also point out that he fundraised more money than any other candidate in the Republican Party. Also, McCain took out a loan of 15 million plus to stay in the race.
Might I also add that Pat Buchanan also just said..."A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain” and he’s saying that he also concludes that McCain and Huckabee are working together to take away from Romney, despite their LIES.
Because it looks like BR's going to be doing a loooooooooot of drinking when the polls come in. Already got my tequila set up at the house...
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
It's not over yet :) The night is just beginning. We might be smiling before it's over!
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Get involved in local GOP, support conservatives, read Russel Kirk and Sowell and be heartened that there is a brighter future.
The only real conservative in the race looked like Truman which was not good in the TV age and had disdain for the process that hurt him. In the future we have some great leaders waiting who are young, maybe chief amongst them Bobby J down in LA.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
Kerry: "So then I thought, 'why not BOTH mansions?'"
McCain: (.... which finger shall I kill him with?)
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
I'm still laughing at this one...and I read it every time I check the updated comments...really funny.
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
...watching Huckabee get crushed (both in raw votes and in delegates).
I hope (and pray) that he is permanently purged from the GOP.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
But yeah, I will be happy when he drops out after tonight. Wish McCain was being beat as well :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Is my favorite Sci Fi. I am not as familiar with the author himself or his views, though I understand he is conservative. I am not a Mormon. Actually I am an agnostic economic/defense Con from New York.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
As a fiscal con you have to be livid at your years in the wilderness.
I can see why you would hate Huckabee.
I wonder if you would have supported someone who really slashed a state budget as executive more than Romney. Would you have liked Mark Sanford?
I gotta run now to vote! See ya later!
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
... is a SoCon / forgein policy hawk / open borders / center-left economic policy guy. Old-school convervative democrat essentially, who's annoyed that he has to vote Republican because no Democrats are serious about foreign policy.
I doubt Huckabee drops out after tonight. Maybe once McCain has it formally wrapped up, but not until then. Why drop out if he can continue to get exposure and gain delegates?
Don't forget about that. He's the one guy in the race who needs the cash.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Considering the lack of support for either of these posts on this site, I think you will have a lot of people agree without really agreeing. [Meaning they would support him for non-existent posts.]
but since whoever the nominee is wont get rid of them, then having a guy the unions like and can help bring our message to try to convince members who are not union drones is better than having them complain about who is in charge of either department.
McCain '08
And another thing, becoming a minister/pastor is supposed to be a calling that one receives. Since when is politics a higher calling than being a pastor? And who quits being a pastor to be a politician?
Anyway, I wouldn't want him to be education secretary because he has a history of opposing school choice - in particular private school choice. Plus, the fact that he was endorsed by the NEA is a disqualifier for that job in my view.
Labor secretary? Sure. I don't even know what they do. The Dep. of Labor is probably just another black hole for our tax dollars that does absolutely nothing.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-...
Do they really not understand how WV does its primary?
Did they really think that McCain folk would walk to Romney's corner before Huck's? Not a chance.
This kind of reaction will only further nail Romneys coffin because it fits his well established modus operandi of behaving exactly how he points the finger at others as having behaved.
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
To show how Mitt losing again and again and again today is anything other than a death knell.
He is done. Thank God...
Everyone says that Romney shifted on so many positions, well to those who say that I say the same goes for McCain. Some facts about McCain:
On Abortion:
McCain Has Repeatedly Rejected Overturning Roe v. Wade
“At a campaign event [in 2000], he said, ‘I would not seek to overturn Roe v. Wade tomorrow, because doing so would endanger the lives of women,’ World magazine reported on August 21.In a written release dated August 22, McCain said, ‘If Roe v. Wade were repealed tomorrow, it would force thousands of young women to undergo dangerous and illegal operations.’ And on Cable News Network on August 22, McCain said, ‘We all know, and it’s obvious, that if we repeal Roe v. Wade tomorrow, thousands of young American women would be performing illegal and dangerous operations.’”31
McCain Abandons Caveats on Roe
“This past weekend, out on the campaign trail, John McCain declared—in a shift from his previous stated positions—that he believes the landmark Supreme Court abortion case Roe v. Wade should be overturned … McCain’s shift on abortion, as well as other issues dear to the conservative base of the Republican Party, has widely been interpreted as a political maneuver intended to help him win the support of a key part of the Republican electorate for the 2008 presidential primary.”32
On Same Sex Marriage:
“He [McCain] opposed the constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage as ‘antithetical in every way to the core philosophy of Republicans. It usurps from the states a fundamental authority they have always possessed and imposes a federal remedy for a problem that most states believe does not confront them.’”61
McCain: Same Sex Marriage Ban Is “Un-Republican”
“Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona broke forcefully with President Bush and the senate GOP leadership Tuesday evening over the issue of same-sex marriage, taking to the senate floor to call a constitutional amendment that would effectively ban the practice unnecessary—and un-Republican.”62
In 2004, McCain Was One of Only Six Republicans Who Voted Against the Same Sex
Marriage Ban
“Six Republicans—including Senator John McCain of Arizona—joined 43 Democrats and one independent to defeat the measure. Three Democrats and 45 Republicans voted for it. The amendment, as proposed by Senator Wayne Allard, would add these two sentences to the Constitution: ‘Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution, nor the constitution of any State, shall be construed to require that marriage or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon any union other than the union of a man and a woman.’”6364
Another vote in 2006 McCain AGAIN voted against the ban.
On Stem Cells:
McCain Voted to Allow Federal Funding of Research on Stem Cells Derived from Human Embryos
H.R. 810, CQ Vote #206: Passed 63-37: R 19-36; D 43-1; I 1-0, 7/18/06, McCain voted yea.
**Information derived from www.cupvf.org
Those of you who support Huckabee because he’s a conservative, and say that your second choice would be McCain because he’s more conservative take another look. While Huckabee maybe conservative on social issues McCain certainly isn’t. If he is now, well then he must have “flip flopped” on it recently.
conservative tradition.
Amending the constitution is not a conservative action.
These decisions should be left to the the states.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
And on voting for federal funding for stem cells on embryos? Is that a conservative tradition? Last time I checked a true conservative comes down on the side of life every time.
Must be those conservatives who “accidently” find themselves in bed with Kennedy, Feingold, Edwards, Kerry, and Liberman….but shh we won’t talk about THOSE conservatives. We’ll just sweep them under the rug until the general election is over, then we’ll come forward and destroy the republican party.
Conservatism as I understand it from reading "A Conservative Mind" is that there are changes in human custom that arise naturally and achieve a level of acceptability.
Conservatives offer prudent advice so as not to allow violent and sudden social change that could rip the fabric of society. Stem cell research can be viewed in this light...Many Americans have grown more accepting of it, and its passage would not have threatened the fabric of American society in any appreciable way.
In order to ensure smooth change and the preservation of local custom, local control should be encouraged, which means no federal legislation legislating morality across the board in such a pluralistic society as ours.
I think you're confusing the religious right with traditional conservativism. Still, McCain has always been pro-life.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
And Hannity will lay out the red carpet to whine away.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
Here's my Super Tuesday Democrat timeline...
5:00 PST Obama makes Hillary cry with a surprise victory in New Jersey. Hillary promises to retaliate by turning New Jersey into New York's waste dump . . . oops, too late.
8:00 PST Obama sweeps Hillary under the rug by stealing California. Hillary blames the striking writers.
8:01 PST Hillary has a Britney-esque meltdown, shaves her head, and runs away with Justin Timberlake.
8:05 PST A triumphant Obama names John Edwards as his running mate on the "Marx Brothers" ticket.
--
"We want great men who, when fortune frowns, will not be discouraged." - Colonel Henry Knox
I saw in the news that McCain is heading back to AZ to campaign. I thought he had it in the bag. Now he seems to think he needs to do some last minute campaigning. Interesting.
imagine, McCain suddenly not doing too well in AZ??? Where did you see this report? If he is going to AZ, I'd first assume he is just going there to receive the results in his home state.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Your trouble is you are thinking rationally. The delusion will continue for some. The person you are replying to predicted Romney would win Arizona.
He's going to Phoenix to watch results and have a rally on home turf. The schedule today was NYC to San Diego to Phoenix.
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http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=1101
No shocker on the Rep side, but could be big on the Dems if Hillary is up double digets in Mass.
2:15pm : Fox News is reporting McCain campaign making calls in CA claiming Mitt Romney is “Anti-God”.
http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=1101
If this is true, its worse than despicable. I hope this is not accurate.
Utah
1pm EST: Right Pundits exclusive exit polling of Salt Lake, Summit, Wasatch, Washington and Utah Counties show huge 58 point lead for Romney. Right Pundits is now calling the state of Utah for Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. You heard it here first . . . stay tuned for other states. Obama is also doing very well in Utah and is winning Salt Lake County.
Really? UTAH GOING TO ROMNEY? Someone grab Right Wing Pundits a gold star. It is sad...
As I wrote last week, the key to the Republican Super Tuesday vote is the WTA states. In terms of momentum, resources, campaigning, etc, the WTA states make it possible for mcCain to win a majority of delegates with a minimum of effort, at the beginning of the night, with an inevitable bandwagon effect. (To explain, as I suspect I must, Romney & Huck have not cmapaigned or spent much money in NY, for example, because McCain had a big lead; they might cut into the lead, but McCain would get 101 delegates either way).
This, by the way, is not "cheating" any more than the WV result was. Although I fully expect Rush limbaugh to be whining about the fact that it wasn't fair! McCain's good states were WTA, amd Romney's were proportional.
Yeah, life's a bitch. All this has been set up for years. Everybody knew about it.
OK: Last week I gave McCain 4 of the WTAs -- NY, NJ, CT, AZ.
I gave Romney WV MT and UT. Didn't give Paul or Huck any, had MO and DE as too close t call.
Today, I see Rasmussen gives MO to McCain, and Huck wins WV. MT is an "invitational caucus" meaning that only party leaders vote. I figured Romney would win this as well as WV since he does well in Caucuses. However, Geraghty says Huck leads there as well. Huh? well, ok. Polls show DE with either Giuliani or mcCain winning, so I give it to McCain.
As of now, therefore, the WTAs seem to break thus: McCain 312, Huck 43, Romney 36.
Two outcomes are possible: A decent showing by Romney, in which he wins california and several southern states (incidentally, if Romney picks up Georgia or Tennessee it will be due to Huckabee's strong presence --ironic!) and comes in with 400+ delegates. It's enough to continue for a few weeks.
Or, he wins or loses calif but McCain sweeps the south and that, in addition to his WTA votes above gives him a win in both states and delegates that will be insurmountable.
More later!
It's nice to see some of that.
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I voted this AM in the St Louis area for (drum roll)
OBAMA!
Just wanted to vote against Hillary once... and with luck this will be my only chance.
yeah, yeah, I know...
From hotair.com:
the Paulnut was at the top of the ballot, separated by not one but two empty spaces from everyone else
Wouldn't it be interesting if Paul won NY, and because of it denied McCain the nomination
All reports show Romney running strong in California's WHINE country.
You can't afford the price of free corn.
*not counting RedState of course!*
5. Marc Ambinder. yes, a liberal, yes a member of the MSM, in the bag for Hillary/Obama BUT - very data-heavy, wonky, detailed, focused and full of information, light on analysis.
4. Politico. Great election eve graphics, interactive maps down to the county level, requent updates. The blogging by Smith & Martin, eh. Conventional wisdom, slow, kinda boring.
3. Stephen Green. Sometimes (and I think this is one of those times) drunkblogging is the only way to go.
2. John Hawkins: Rock solid conservative analysis and reporting, no bs.
1. Campaign spot. geraghty has great sources in the campaigns, great intuition and analysis, always astute and ahead of everyone else. Also very funny.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Since this is an open thread. Have you seen "Fast food nation"? I watched it last night. It was absolutely sickening the way they show the treatment of illegal immigrants, but I am sure it is commonplace in some businesses. I can also see that McCain's observations below is that we should continue the amnesty policy currently in effect. That way we can keep importing cheap labor for business. Grant amnesty (but call it a fine), allow another 20 million to come across at good, fair, market-based wages.... That's good for the meat-packing foreman and good for the U.S....right?
From McCain's website portion on immigration
"Recognize the importance of pro-growth policies -- keeping government spending in check, holding down taxes, and cutting unnecessary regulatory burdens -- so American businesses can hire and pay the best.
Recognize the importance of a flexible labor market to keep employers in business and our economy on top. It should provide skilled Americans and immigrants with opportunity. Our education system should ensure skills for our younger workers, and our retraining and assistance programs for displaced workers must be modernized so they can pursue those opportunities"
Erik
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It's that time again.
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Well a certain ex President.
"a man's admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him". Tocqueville
I'm disgusted.
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“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine