Super Tuesday: WV Results Coming In
Open Thread on Super Tuesday
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (271) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
WV Results. Nothing reported yet, but they should come in within the hour.
[UPDATE 12:24] Romney wins WV. Since it's a convention, it reported at one time:
Romney 41
Huck 33
McCain 16
Paul 10
This probably presages Mitt doing well in other caucus-style states like ND, MT, AK, MN and CO.
[UPDATE 12:40] Turns out, you need a majority. The results above were the first round. Paul will be dropped and another vote taken. It's likely that no one gets 50% and another ballot with just the top two will happen. Where will the McCain voters go?
[UPDATE 2:12] Second round voting is being reported. According to blogs and local media (but not yet CNN) are reporting Huckabee wins WV as McCain delegates shifted to Huckabee to put him over 50%.
[UPDATE 2:21] CNN reports the totals:
Huckabee 52%
Romney 47%
McCain 1%
That's 19 delegates for Huckabee.
[UPDATE 2:32] What happened.. In the first round, the ballot was:
Romney 464
Huckabee 375
McCain 176
Paul 118
Second ballot (without Paul). McCain voters were told to vote Huckabee:
Romney 521
Huckabee 567
McCain 12
Assuming all 164 McCain voters that switched went to Huck, that leaves 28 votes from Paul supporters. Romney gained 57 votes from somewhere, presumably Romney voters.
If some McCain voters did not listen to the McCain staff that changes the Paul breakdown. If 10 defected to Romney then Huck got 38 Paul votes and Romney got 47. If 30 defected then Huck got 58 Paul votes and Romney got 17. No more than 47 could have defected and in that case, all Paul voters went Huck.
The most likely place on the spectrum is that no more than 10 defected while the vast majority listened to the campaign since they want McCain to win the nomination. Thus, the Paul voters seem to have broken to Romney by a little bit but not enough to win the state.
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Consider this the afternoon Open Thread. Any idea when other caucuses might report?
Here's the Primary Schedule (hat tip to HeavyM):
7:00 — Georgia
8:00 — Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 — Arkansas
9:00 — Arizona, New York
10:00 — Montana, Utah
11:00 — California
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Super Tuesday: WV Results Coming In 271 Comments (0 topical, 271 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Guess we know who the anti establishment candidate is, and it ain't McCain.
The Republican Party and the Democrat Party are equally corrupt.
Apparently we are being told by each machine that competence doesn't matter.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I was worried about Huckabee in this Southern state, but this is great news. Conservatives picked Romney.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
you know what they say, as goes West Virginia, so goes the rest of the south...oh, wait, they don't say that? huh.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Another Gold... a good sign?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WV
Considering that this is a southern state. They need to get this word out and this could bode well for the whole south, which is if that is true, McCain will be right in saying that it will finish tonight, that is his canpaign. Ireally think the Dems are planning on McCain be the nominee. Not sure what they would do if Mitt was
First, WV is not usually considered Southern. Maybe OK and KY can be snuck in, but WV is a stretch.
Second, this was a convention (a single caucus, more or less). The other Southern states are primaries. We'll see if that makes as much difference today as it has the last few weeks.
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We Okies consider ourselves to be from the south. I have yet to talk to anyone who is planning to vote for Romney. Most of those I know are voting for McCain (including me and my husband), although my dad is voting for Huckabee.
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We're gonna be alive and well next year. Colt McCoy is gonna comeinto his own-I saw it in the Bowl game.
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
I guess poltiics do make strange bedfellow ;-)
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
I think it's likely that Romney will win most caucuses and McCain will win most primaries.
Contrary to the RS narrative, this seems to say that the establishment "cigar-filled" rooms are choosing Romney but "we the people" are choosing McCain. When states like NV and WV have 3-10% turnout for a caucus-system, most Rs don't participate. But in the 15 or so primary states, turnout is much higher.
Kudos to Romney for having an organization that can win these caucus-style states, but he really needs to win some of the primary states (not just MA, UT and maybe CA) to show that he has support outside the establishment.
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Right on, "we the people" will have more votes in the Romney column at the end of the day than McCain, regardless of the delegate count.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
and "we the non-republicans". Yes, even in FL.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
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to vote for McCain as there is for him/her to vote for Romney. Mitt Romney is not a conservative just because he says he is. Niether is McCain a conservative just because he says he is.
I wouldn't have guessed it given McCain's record of sticking his "disagreements" and rhetoric into Conservatives' faces, but if you just dispassionately examine record and don't look at the individuals, perhaps...
All I was speaking about though was the fact that from the exit polls in all the primaries/caucuses to date, McCain has never won Conservatives, and frankly Republicans either considering 1/5th of non Republicans voting in the "closed" FL primary.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I think that your continued assertion of this "fact" from Florida is ridiculous. Give a cite to something other than an anonymous fourth hand anecdotal account of someone who asked the three old ladies on the corner if they were Republicans.
You're telling me here that 20% of the 1.8 million Republican votes were non-Republicans. That's 360k. Now add in 1.5 million Democrat votes, and you get almost 1.9 million non-Republicans voting compared with 1.4 million Republicans. In Florida.
Okay. If that's how you convince yourself Romney is going to win, good for you. Stop resorting to the liberals' tactics of creating KnownFacts.
17% Indy, 3% Dem
80% GOP - tied 33% each for McCain and Romney
Conservatives went for Romney again.
Page 4 of the exit polls.
Yes, McCain won because of Indy and Dem voters again.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Here is proof for those who constantly see bias in your Sunday Talk Show Review.
*Tagg Romney 2036!*
Just because we prioritize differently that does not mean we are not conservative. Back when W was running, I never would have thought I would ever be backing McCain. I don't agree with him on everything but I am backing him 100% now. Funny how things change.
If you've ever had any involvement in politics other than bloviating on a website, you'd know that caucus delegates are hardly the "elites." The difference between them and primary voters is that they're more informed, more passionate, and more active.
Obviously it seems that many GOP primary voters are not acting responsibly.
First of all, McAmnesty won because Democrats supported him in NH and SC.
Caucuses are closed and for Republicans only. This is why Mitt wins.
Obviously, Florida GOP primary voters are not sufficiently well informed on the issues. Let's hope Florida becomes a caucus state in the future.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
McCain and Huckabee operatives ganging up on Romney is "we the people" eh?
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
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You need to win a majority of the convention votes. Romney didn't. They will go to a second ballot and try again.
If still no majority they take the top 2 finishers on the 2nd ballot and run a third ballot with just them.
I guess we'll see where people go for their "second choices" here. Do Huck voters go to McCain? Do McCain voters go to Huck to deny Romney? Do Paul voters just go home?
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They eliminate RonPaul and go to ballot 2. Where do his voters go? My guess is as good as yours considering half of them are kind of nutters. Who is even the next closest person to Paul?
My guess is that if Paul voters don't go to Romney on this ballot that Huckabee will win this - the third ballot will not include McCain and his voters will probably vote Huck to deny Romney the delegates.
Paul voters will probably go to Huck because they will likely prioritize their social conservatism above anything else. From the many people I know who are voting for Paul, that would be my guess anyway.
They're Constitutionalist Conservatives who read the Constitution and think "we need to go back to that!" and feel that if you wanted a candidate who said "The Constitution is important!" that Paul was the only game in town.
They're more likely to vote Libertarian than Huckabee.
They're more likely to vote Hillary Clinton than Huckabee... at least Hillary Clinton would result in a Republican Congress that would shut down the Federal Government a handful of times.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
who'd support Huckabee as 2nd choice. Or McCain. I know a few, and I've spent some time on their forums.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Paul voters are not socially conservative, generally speaking. A lot of them are libertarian, being socially liberal and economically/fiscally conservative.
I'm surprised so many went to Huckabee, but it almost makes sense. McCain's biggest strength is the GWOT, which we paultards don't really care about. Romney is the mystery candidate. With the Huckster (is that name frowned upon?), we get someone as squishy as McCain economically, but at least he's pro-life. He's also more malleable than the others.
They've just finished one round of voting. They have to get to 50% I think. So as I understand it, check out the link to liveblog above - they will have a second round of voting soon. Still looks like Romney most likely though.
Right now there are 1133 delegates, can they just leave if they want or do they have to stay once their guy is out? If they have to stay then the magic number is 567 for a majority meaning Romney needs 103 and Huck needs 191 more votes from the other two candidate’s pool.
Why has no one talked about how McCain acted when he lost the 2000 primary election. He acted like an angry child. What happens when he doesn't get his way as President (or Commander and Chief)?
The dems will use this.
From the live-blogging site:
Romney: 464
Huckabee: 375
McCain: 176
Paul: 118
A majority would have been 567 delegates, so Romney is 103 votes short. If every Ronulan goes home, that leaves 1015 delegates, 508 needed for a majority. Obviously, some Ronulans will stick around.
So the questions: how many Paulites will stick around, and of those, how will they distribute themselves? And, how many McCainiacs will defect to Romney?
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I am going to guess, that the Paul guys don't like Huckabee. Its just a guess, so I still like Romney's chances.
So, 74 of Ron Paul's 118 delegates would have to leave and all of McCain's would have to go to Huckabee for Huckabee to win. This would make a good word problem.....
Hucks wins WV I am calling it now.
doesn't mean that all McCain and all Huckabee supporters hate Romney. Also I know for a fact that Ron Paul supporters hate McCain more than anything and there are more than enough Ron Paul supporters there to give Romney the win, even iff 100% of Huck supporters vote McCain.
Good luck heh
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Except McCain + Huckabee still doesn't equal 50%.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Don't hold back, how does it feel?
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Okay, so Ron Paul is eliminated, now, the question is where do his votes go.
If they vote for someone else, its going to be Mitt. But I'd be willing tob et my savings acccount the RonPaul!RonPaul!RonPaul! supporters are more likely to go home.
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
looks like the bulk of Paul supporters are going with Huckabee, and the McCain camp will probably direct their supporters to do so as well...
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzA5ZDM3OWRhMTVjMzg1OTI5NGFiZTY...
Question for anyone who knows, at the National Convention, can a losing candidate direct his delegates to another candidate or are they totally up for grabs?
My guess is the W. Va. convention directions are non-binding, too, but the delegates are just equally aware of the national picture.
It's a different situation. Even if the W. Va. McCain delegates have different second choices, they all know a Huckabee win will be ignored, but a Romney win may hurt McCain's chances of sealing the deal today.
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"I believe in grace, because I have seen it. In peace, because I have felt it. In forgiveness, because I needed it."
-George W. Bush
If Romney pulls out the win here does this perhaps show an indication of the conservative rally towards him? Don't forget this was once a state where Huck had a lead. While W. Va isn't considered a southern state, it still was a state that Huckabee was counting on for a win for his "southern strategy". Perhaps a Romney win shows how conservatives have given up on Huckabee and his desperate attempt to attack Romney (yet never McCain), and want to vote for someone who can actually win.
Does this indicate a possible shift in southern votes to Romney? Goes to show you can't trust the polls, especially with Romney's momentum building. Most polls in these states were taken several days ago.
Or did you just join the site to smear Mitt Romney. How about a diary on why you think McCain or Huckabee is the best choice without any mention of Mitt Romney whatsoever. Adam C has done it, and done an excellent job. Otherwise, just take your ball and go home.
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
A government big enough to give you everything you want is strong enough to take everything you have. Thomas Jefferson
Romney will be crushed today.
I wrote about the only candidate I could get excited about, Fred Dalton Thompson.
I am not a person who dislikes Romney because of one thing, I am distraught that talk radio has wholeheartedly endorsed a man who has lied over and over and over.
BlackRepub, I am sure in life outside of this medium we would get along quite well, and that is why I mourn for my friends who like you will feel that conservatism failed today. Conservatism failed when Romney bought person after person and a real conservative, Fred Thompson was laid low in part by dirty tricks (the lie Politico reported that he was getting out that was news the day of the voting in Iowa and definitely hurt him).
What we need to realize is that McCain is incredibly better for this country than Hillary or Obama and we need to support him after today when his nomination becomes the inevitability many of us already saw.
When I look back on this election cycle I will feel mainly disappointment, disappointment because the media filtered out truths that should have been obvious:
Fred Thompson is not lazy, wanted to be President and had better policy proposals than anyone else running
Mitt Romney recast himself as a conservative in order to run for President and has absolutely zero principles that he holds dear except for a sterling personal life which I do admire. That is not enough though for me to vote for him.
Huckabee governed as a centrist and that is not the way to get elected as a Southerner. You have to be very schooled in foreign policy and you have to be extremely conservative as well as strong on immigration and hard on crime, both areas he failed in his presentation. Fiscal conservatives also rejected him.
Rudy had not much going for him other than name recognition post 9/11. I would want him as my keynote speaker at an AIPAC meeting, but I would not want him as President. Being pro abortion never put him in my possible list.
Ron Paul ended all hope with his links to racist publications. Prior to that he had some good ideas but he moved straight to a wish list he could only accomplish if the federal government was replaced by a benign dictatorship. I want to eliminate the DOE but it has to be trimmed first. He was a pipe dream for crazy dreamers and he confuses isolationism with libertarian defense of America. We need some involvement overseas or America will have no ability to maintain our safety.
Finally McCain. I do not like him. I do understand him better. If you want to know part of me turning towards him read my diary about McCain and evangelicals. He is an angry cuss but he has lots of reasons to be angry. I also do not mind it because I think about the direction America is headed if the Dems win and it makes me angry. I think about the dominance of figureheads who care more about their kingdom than Gods but who abuse his name and it makes me angry. So we disagree about immigration. It is one of the only times I have seen McCain admit he was wrong. He knows we need a fence. I think he will actually build it. I think lots of self deportation will take place. I also think he will ape Fred Thompsons policies in seeking to appeal to the alienated base.
Mitt Romney if he won would be running back to the center to try to get a victory. McCain will be running right and I think will end up at home.
What lies are you referring to? He's changed some of his positions and been honest about it - please reference these lies.
*Tagg Romney 2036!*
he is a career moderate who tried to pander to all parts of the coalition.
as a moderate conservative, i have been insulted by romney's attempt to preach his conservatism on immigration, the war, abortion, the role of government, healthcare, etc.
i will not be pandered to... he does not have the record of the conservative he CLAIMS (i.e. lied) to be...
i expected more from conservatives to see through this charade.
go ahead and list out these lies. Of course, dhannon YOU won't be able to. We all know you hate Romney and so you want to throw out general anti-Romney talking points. Lets hear some specifics.
*Tagg Romney 2036!*
Romney may not have been as conservative as we'd like while running Massachussetts but he kept his word there. He made promises and kept them for the most part. He's made promises for the presidential run now, conservative ones. I believe he'll keep those as long as its within his capability to do so.
If he wins the nomination, he'll have my vote. If McCain wins, I don't think I can make myself vote for him just for the Republican Party.
from what I understand in some of your post, from his claims to be a conservative with no record to back it up. From where I'm standing McCain is in a similar boat. He claims to be a conservative with a record to back some of it up, but and this is a big BUT, over the past eight years when conservatives, and the Republican party for that matter, really needed him he wasn't being very conservative or Republican he was being an obstructionist. It is for this I will not support him tonight, I will be voting for the next viable candidate, Mitt Romney.
I'm a Ron Paul supporter, and my input might be relavent here. All 3 of the remaining have minor pluses in their favor, the fair tax is better than the current (although we'd prefer none), but the rest of Huck is very much less than attractive. McCain is nice on spending which I actually place higher than tax relief, however he's too hawkish for most Paulites, as well as the atrocity of CFR, and Romney seems to be a toned down version of all factors, but has nice private executive experience. So all in all I'd choose Romney myself, followed by McCain, and given the situation in WV if I were there I'd pull for Romney. However I'm an AZ Paul supporter, I might have different priorities than a WV supporter.
Incidentally I am only currently supporting Ron Paul because he can't win, his inability to police a periodical(multiple ones no less) with his name affixed to it shows he is incapable of leading, I'd just like his domestic priorities to get more traction.
I know what this has been talked about already, but just as a reminder, even id McCain wins all the WTA states (which he won't), he still has a long way to go to get the nom.
X-Angel
According to The Corner
The question is, what will the Paul supporters do. And remember, these are not normal voters, delegates take their position more seriously.
If Romney didn't attack fellow Rs, he probably would be the 2nd choice for more of them.
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Why would he want to settle for second choice when he's trying to win?
What is wrong with highlighting the differences in his record and the records of his opponents?
Don't put this on Romney, everyone knows that Huckabee and McCain have been in league with each other. There just not honest enough to admit it.
If Huck really wanted to win, he would take on McCain.
Neither one are strong enough to win it on their own, so they're taking down the best candidate.
Huckabee has been running radio ads in my area, but they aren't even "vote for me" ads! They're ads promoting his new book! Is it legal to use campaign funds to promote a book for a candidate's profit? Assuming that is what he's doing.
Fewer than half of Paul's supporters left - assuming that the entire decrease in the total votes cast was due to Paul voters. Looks like about 45 fewer people voted in Rd. 2 than in Rd. 1 - Paul took 118 votes the first time around.
And "the fix" was in the rules.
Would you have preferred having them go to a 3rd round and, having eliminated McCain, had all his supporters vote Huckabee then? Would that have been more "noble" or less "cheap"?
The rules are the rules that the Party agreed to before there was a race. This system is no worse than a winner-take-all state that permits a victory with only a plurality and not a majority. Don't like the rules - get them changed.
What would it be like if NONE of the results were announced until the CA votes were tallied?!
What would it be like if there was not 40 daily polls and a 24-hour news channels with pundits spewing wild-a$$ guesses? The "contributors" who just so happen to work for a specific campaign (we learn later.)
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for freedom of speech. We must ALWAYS fight to protect it, but there's just something wrong with this system. The news channels, candidates, and pundits certainly seem to understand the psychology where people seem to want to vote for a winner (one that is pre-determined by the media as much as possible). Many Americans have turned into sheeple (sheep/people). Herd mentality that will follow almost blindly.
Wouldn't you know my final class is from 6:00pm to 10:00pm tonite and the caucus is from 7:00pm to 8:30pm. There was no way I could get out of class.
Ya'll have fun out there. Be safe.
Vote for Romney :-)
.....class just has to take a backseat.
You can always tape record a lecture, or get notes from someone. You can't TIVO the caucus and participate later.
It's all neighborhood caucuses. When I went to the Romney campaign event, the guy that was training us said there were only three people at his last caucus (2006).
Tomorrow I'll get to say, "Don't blame me, I voted for getting an 'A' in my college class."
The reporter in WV is calling it for Huck! One more reason Mitt should drop out and let it be a choice between Huck and McCain.
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-George W. Bush
The live blogger has the local news correspondent calling the second round for Huck - he's got the majority and the delegates.
which of course it made sense for McCain to support Huckabee. We'll see how McCain stands on his own (which he obviously didn't in WV).
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
was sleazy....he has nothing on Huckabee and McCain.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
How on earth is this win 'sleazy'??? The whole way the election was set us was for people to have to vote for their second or third choice when their guy got knocked out. Blame the WV GOP for setting the rules that you had to get 50% or else Romney would have won. Did you think that the McCain supporters were going to go to Romney?
note that Huckabee and McCain are working in tandem to defeat someone as opposed to actually running on their record....because again anyone with 1/2 a brain knows that if they run on their liberal record they will lose.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
Don't blame us because Mitt Romney cannot get 50% of the GOP votes. And we have lots of brains - thats how we are able to beat the 'smart' candidate.
Romney is running on his record! Both McCain and Huck are running from their record, JUST LIKE THE DEMOCRATS ALWAYS DO!
Let us know when you put down the bong. Or I missed his pro-choice, pro-gay right, anti-gun message for President.
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Ironically, had he ran as a Mass., pragmatic moderate with his money, he may have won this thing.
People often vote the person not the issues... and McCain simply has a reputation for being genuine and honest.
of the Romney campaign has been to run away from his record, as fast and as hard as his legs can carry him.
It's the obvious result of any type of contest that has a "second choice" or viability mechanism, like the IA Democratic caucus and their 15% viability rule. I agree that I always prefer a straight up primary, but you have to play the hand you are dealt, or choose not to play at all.
This low-life back handed move that he did in WV is flat wrong! And if no one is going to call him on it, I will! He can no longer say that he is a conservative by telling his people to vote Huck over Romney!!!
It's a winner take all, majority rules convention. There is nothing, nothing low life or back handed about this.
They had to pick somebody It was Huck or Romney. They picked Huck. You lose. Deal with it.
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I'd love to know how this is back handed and not smart politics. I thought Romney was the one who had all this stuff figured out. Turns out Huck's and McCain's people outsmarted his.
Romney has spent the last week telling everyone that McCain is not a conservative. He has not run on his record - unless his record is "I'm not John McCain - you hate John McCain - you should vote for me."
And the idea is to win delegates for your candidate and/or insure that he has the most delegates (preferably a majority) at the convention. If that means insuring that your chief rival does NOT win them, that's all within the rules. Do you seriously think that Mitt's people aren't considering a similar tactic in places where they are a distant third in hopes of denying McCain delegates?
And being that its a political contest, with real politicians and everything, I guess we should expect folks to well . . . practice politics. By the way you ought to go read about the 1860 Republican convention if this kind of horse trading bothers you.
NC
Romney made his bed and now he has to lie in it. He alienated everyone of the other candidates. So, when push comes to shove, they're more than happy to stick it to him by helping the others beat him.
But my dislike for Huckabee has greatly increased.
but as with everything now...there is the damn gray...sad!
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
Looks like Huck will win more than Ark.
Awesome!
I cannot believe that some people voted for him simply out of spite to Mitt. Of course, I think it's going to really funny in CA when all the independants vote for Obama instead of McCain!
CA is a closed primary. Not sure what their registration rules are, but I suspect that, if they are like most other states with closed primaries, you had to have finalized your party registration well before today. E.g. - FL requires you to do it 29 days before the election, NY is 30 days, etc. I don't think CA voters can walk into the polling place and change registration on the spot (that would be a modified open primary in the lingo).
Indies can only vote in the Democratic and I think Peace and Freedom primaries. No other parties allow it.
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I just reported what I heard from the MSM. Oh yeah that's right. Most of the time they don't anybody from GOP!
Remeber... WV is not winner take all.
Today's win is good for all 18 delegates at stake today. 9 more get decided in a May primary. Then there are the 3 RNC delegates. No delegates for Romney today.
My home state goes for Huckabee, when they could have had Romney. I don't know what Huckabee thinks he is getting out of this. He can't think that he can win. Maybe we deserve some of the reputation we have.
Is Mitt Romney not winning, which at this point seems to be their only reason for staying in. From what we've seen today in WV, they seem to be very successful at it.
Or he may actually think he can win. Truthfully, after Fla. with all the Super Tuesday southern states in front of him, there really was no downside to him staying in. I am fascinated though by his attacks on Romney. A few totally random and factless based guesses as to why he has gone after the Mittster with such glee:
*He genuinely does not like the guy (and for whatever reason it seems like most of the other Republican candidates did not care for Romney either).
*He has made a political calculation that Romney will lose and he wants to get some influence with McCain for helping take out Romney (see e.g., R. Guiliani).
* He thinks Romney will be behind him after Super Tuesday and the remaining Conservative opposition to McCain will get behind Huck. I doubt this explanation though, since I am sure Huck realizes the Rush Limbaugh's of the world, if possible, have an even bigger problem with Huck than McCain. In the minds of talk radio, Huck/McCain are like Hitler/Stalin.
*He has an issue with Romney's religion. I have no basis for this assertion, except for the offhand remark Huck made about Mormons thinking Jesus was Satan's brother. So in fairness to Huck, I will give more weight to my first two baseless guesses.
NC
I think your first and second are correct. Doubt the third and agnostic on the fourth.
But, I'd guess there are a couple of additional reasons for Huck staying in:
1. The more delegates Huckabee wins, the stronger position he has at the convention to influence a strong pro-life platform for the party.
2. The better Hucakabee does, the more viable he is in any future election and the more influence he has within the pro-life movement.
I can understand you supporting Huck whether he has a chance to win or not, because I would do the same probably if Hunter were still in the race. On the other hand, I can't believe that Huckabee really believes that he can win. The stakes are just too much against him.
I'm also from WV, and am disappointed in the outcome. Huckabee and McCain have formed an unholy alliance because they are both from the liberal wing of the Republican party. They both also hate Romney because he had the audicity to run ads pointing out their records. Still, with any luck this will work against them in the primaries, where they can't so easily shift their votes from one person to the other. Hopefully they will split the liberal Republican vote and Romney can win with the conservatives.
McCainiacs may be shooting themselves in the foot here. Remember, you will want Romney voters in the Fall if your "lousy" candidate actually makes it that far. I for one will never pull the lever for John McCain....quite frankly I see it as the equivalent of voting for Hillary.
Are completlely oblivious to the cognitive dissonance in that statement?
McCain supporters will need Romney supporters in the fall, and Romney supporters will need McCain supporters in the fall. Most of the "if my candidate doesn't win I'm gonna take my ball and go home" nonsense has been coming from Romney supporters, not the other way around.
This is *expressly* what the rules in WV calls for, this is what the state party decided upon, those are the rules of the game. Carrying on like it was some nefarious dirty trick is silly. Again, play by the rules, live with the results, or don't play at all.
you're part of what's wrong with politics and the country in general. Do us all a favor - crawl into a hole and stay there until after the general. You're a blight.
I would be able to throw in with McCain at the end of the day. I even wrote a diary a while back saying that while he wouldn't have my support, he would have my vote in November against a Democrat. I have changed my mind. I cannot in good conscience vote for John McCain. He has spurned my conservative beliefs too many times (through his actions, not words) to turn around and expect me to vote for him nonetheless.
I've realized that allowing McCain to repeatedly stick his fingers in the eyes of conservatives time and time again has to have consequences. If we all fall in behind him despite what he's done to us (and worse yet, what he promises to still do in the future!) we are sending a message to future politicians that conservatives are cheap dates who can be neglected, rejected, attacked, and yet will still give you what you want at the end of the day.
Not anymore. John McCain will not have my vote.
This is disgraceful. McCain and Huckabee are never to be forgiven for this kind of maneuvering. Tack this onto the smear of Romney over his Bob Dole comments and you can see the worst kind of politics being played out by these Democrats..er..RINOS.
TrustButVerify
Keep it up guys. Every time you open your mouth you decrease the number of people who are going to turn out for your empty suit candidate in November.
The last week has pushed me over the edge. I'm not voting for Romney at all. Period. Here's hoping one of the minor parties in NY here decide not to cross-endorse so I have someone worth going to the booth for.
or someone will come along and acuse you of being a little baby wanting to take all his toys and go home!!!
Oh, you're not going to ever vote for ROMNEY?!? Nevermind then.
this one has to hurt.
Romney's loss in Florida created a virtually impossible situation for him. He needs to run the table in all the close states today, and the WV situation shows just how difficult that is.
When Romney couldn't beat McCain in Florida, his chances of winning disappeared.
That because of what happened in WV that 43% (Romney supporters)of the voters were told that it did not matter who they wanted as their candidate, that for the first time in 12 years WV will go for the democrats in the general election! And you can take that to the bank!
....43% of only 1,000 people who happened to be at a state party convention. It was not the people of WV in toto (by the way, only about 30% of the state are registered Republicans anyway).
And exactly why do 43% of voters get to dictate who they want? The rules were that you needed 50%. The Romney folks should have done a better job either 1. Getting more of their supporters elected as convention delegates in the first place; or 2. convincing Paul voters to pick their guy as a second choice. Either option would have avoided them being in the minority.
43% of people wanted Mitt. The other 57% wanted anybody other than Mitt. Not sure why this is telling the folks in WV that they can't have what they want.
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Disclaimer: I am a member of a state-wide executive committee that is affiliated with Governor Mike Huckabee's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination
You just were handed a victory by JMacs unprincipled voters. To bad you can't win anything on your own. To bad you don't stand a snowballs chance in !!!!
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Disclaimer: I am a member of a state-wide executive committee that is affiliated with Governor Mike Huckabee's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination
You know I think there would be a pretty good business in selling anti-anxiety drugs around Red State right now.
NC
Hillary or Obama need a VP.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Handing out fish instead of teaching them how to fish.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Well Huckabee has won W. Va. However the vote was incredibly close, with 567 going to Huck and 521 going to Romney. The bloggers who were inside the convention sight made mention that McCain's staff held up signs that told McCain supporters to vote for Huckabee. Paul supporters went home, and the clear showing that McCain staffers succeeded in telling their supporters to go to Huckabee is the fact that McCain got 12 votes.
I think that was a back handed move by the McCain people. Huckabee supporters have NO HOPE of their candidate making it to the White House, not even as a VP. People have to wake up and realize there is no hope for Huckabee, and when they vote for Huckabee they are voting for McCain. For those who think Huckabee will be McCain's running mate they are sadly mistaken. McCain is just using Huckabee to detract from Romney, and once the voting is over and McCain is done with Huckabee, he'll throw him to the sidelines.
567 to 521 to 12?
Only 1100 people voted state-wide? West Virginia is a state, right? Not just an offshoot of some suburb somewhere?
Unfreakinbelievable.
This was a state party convention. The totals were votes from delegates to that convention. The primary is in May but only carries 9 delegates with it.
This was an even more limited group than a caucus - at least a caucus is open to anybody in the party. You had to have been elected as a delegate to go to this convention in WV, or be a party leader at the county level (presumably).
The result doesn't make me feel any better, but at least I understand the process. Seems to be a pretty odd way to handle things, but who am I to judge?
These are delegates to the state party convention. The worrysome thing down the road for Romney, is that he has had staff in WV for much longer than any other candidate, and ground game was supposed to be the Romney team's strength.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Did McCain staffers go around twisting their arms? No reports of such. They indicated that the campaign's choice was Huckabee. The McCain supporters would have had to pick a new person after the second ballot anyway - and don't you think most of them might have been looking for a staffer for an opinion?
And I repeat - If the tables were turned, and the first ballot hand been McCain in 1st, Huck, then Romney in 3rd, the Mittiots would have been telling their people to vote for Huck when they got knocked out just the same. You don't think Romney would do anything to deny McCain a delegate.
Huckabee is dangerous but not a mindless twit. I'm sure he and his staffers are well aware of what happened today, and why they won. The thing is, I don't think they care. Huckabee sees the outlook - he knows that if he hangs in there today, competes in a few more southern states after this bonanza, and walks away with a few hundred delegates that could be the difference. He will write his own ticket as both McCain and Romney will want those delegates later in the season (or at the convention). Huckabee has an actual shot of doing what the media was saying Edwards was aiming for - being the kingmaker.
It is backhanded, because had the McCain supporters voted for McCain in the second round as they did in the first Romney would have won. He would have had the majority after the second round, therefore winning the convention. Instead McCain staffers decided to advise their delegates to vote for Huckabee in the second round, therefore not allowing it to go to a third round.
This is absolutely wrong. A major backlash will result with this. A McCain victory will destroy the Republican Party. Look what happened to Clinton in the early 90s? He was a "New Democrat", where he was more to the middle then the left. The backlash was incredible, resulting in Dems losing both houses. This will happen again if McCain wins. McCain will destroy the conservative party.
Proof Positive tht McCain cannot win without the liberal vote whether it be so called indepedents, Eastern liberal Republicans or economic liberal Southern Deomcrat style Huckabee voters.
This really is a sham.
"economic liberal Southern Deomcrat style Huckabee voters"
By that rationale, the Republican party has been winning national elections by turning all of the South deep, deep red with these types of voters.
Let me ask you this, had McCain delegates or Huck delegates thrown enough support Romney's way for him to pull it out, would you *really* be griping right now?
Romney can't win without some of those people either. "Conservatives" (especially once the Romney supporters get done narrowing that definition to the size of a paper cut) do not make up half the electorate. A Romney that has no appeal to independents (and some liberals) is a Romney that picks up 42% in November and looks like Mike Dukakis '88 in the electoral college.
We should stop pissing on the center as if they have no place in political decision-making - no matter who the nomination, we need some of those people in November.
What makes you believe that Huckabee supporters are not aware that Huckabee has little to no chance of winning the nomination? Try to comprehend that they might prefer McCain over Romney, because that's what all the evidence says. If you're truly a Romney fan, you should be encouraging Huckabee and his supporters to stay in the race.
Sounds like Rush, and Hannity were spot on.
Huckabee and McCain may have won this one, but the backlash is going to hurt them down the line. American's like fair play, and there was nothing fair about this.
It is very early in the day and with Rush, Hannity, Levin, and Savage talking about this, it could really cause a backlash against McCain and people who did not care as much may be changing their minds and heading to the polls
of course another possible interpretation is that Rush et. al. actually have some limitations on their ability to be kingmakers.
NC
Politics is the art of winning. Part of winning is making sure the other guy loses. That's what McCain did today.
Look, I have no use whatsoever for either McCain or Huck. None. Zip. Nada. Bupkis. But to whine about "fairness" is just adolescent and silly. It's about WINNING! Get over it.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
The second ballot, and the elimination of non-viable supporters was written into the rules in WV, by WV party members. Stop acting like this was some dirty trick.
You aren't being a whiner if you plan ahead to get revenge.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
This is nothing more than raw, regular politics. There are no Black Helicopters involved. This is completely fair.
NOW, if you haven't voted yet in a state where Huckabee and Romney are splitting votes and McCain has a plurality, now would be a good time to reconsider your Huckabee vote if Romney is your second choice. That, too, is raw politics.
You put in a nutshell what I wrote below
it may be fair but this makes everything so transparent. Huckabee has spent the week passionately denying he'd stay in the race for anything other than to win. I wonder if this will deflate Huck supporters? Glad I didn't donate money to Huck.
I hate to point this out to you, but he DID win! How is there a downside to him there? McCain's people voted for him, not the other way around.
You can't afford the price of free corn.
Then before you know it they'll doubt that he signed the Civil Rights Legislation and defeated Communism.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Whatta bunch of whiners!
The day is still young folks.
X-Angel
He has to win Cali. MUST WIN.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Forgive me, it's been a while since I've had a chance to take a real swipe at Huckabee, he's fallen off so...
Option 1: They are committed to amending the Constitution "so it's in God's standards."
Option 2: The should be committed (to an institution where the footware of choice is fuzzy slippers)!
He is not electable!!! Romney can not win in November! Republicans know this and this is what is causing all of this angst. McCain is not a conservative but he may be able to win in November. Romney would be destroyed in November because he gets most of his support from people who support GW Bush. Do we really want a candidate in Nov. that can only rally support from those who support our current president? John McCain is the only type of Republican that can win in November. He gives liberals and independants(that despise Hillary) a person that they can vote for. Someone who hates Hillary is not going to check a box for Romney in November. But they could justify a vote for McCain over Hillary. So what do you want? Vote Romney and go down in flames on principle. Or vote McCain and keep Billary out of the White House?
"To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical." Thomas Jefferson
McCain can't win in Nov. It's so early to be looking at "head to head" match ups for the general. Look if McCain is against Obama he can't, and won't win. Obama will make McCain look like an old babbling fool. Obama has a spark with his party, and he'll pull those independents that would vote for McCain away, thus having a democratic White House. Obama will out debate McCain, causing McCain will look like an old fool. This was the same strategy that the Clinton people used with Dole. It worked in 96' and will work again this fall.
WSAZ is now reporting that Huckabee did a deal with Paul for 3 national delegates
Michael Wooten just confirmed with ron pauls people that paul will get three national delegates from huckabee in exchange for throwing his wv support to..
WSAZ 2/5/08
The two biggest purists in the race make a backroom deal.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
If I were a Ron Paul supporter, I'd take 3 National Delegates for sending my 10% support any day of the week.
Politics is like making sausage, it's an ugly process.
Plus, thats 3 Delegates that doesn't go to McCain or Romney
(depending on who you're supporting)
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"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI
Huckabee got the most delegates, followed by Paul with 3, and McCain and Romney with 0?
What a result.
And we are wasting this much bandwidth over such a sparrow's burp of an event?
What an embarrassment.
It's a state convention.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Apparently, this limited convention is a brand new concept, and my family is really unhappy with it. It makes the primary votes almost worthless, when before they actually counted for something.
If not, how did the state delegates get selected?
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Congratulations to the McCain campaign for outsmarting Huckabee voters into being their pawn. There could not be a more obvious example of what is happening across the country. Huckabee voters are denying Romney victory first in West Virginia and they soon will in several other states.
Of course the average voter doesn't realize what is going on. they just hear "Huckabee wins West Virginia" and are perhaps MORE likely to vote for Huckabee today thinking he's still competitive rather than switch their vote to Romney or be angry that the McCain camp is using them just to deny Romney delegates.
This would have been pretty important for Romney since it's one of the few winner-take-all states he has a chance in. What a coup for the McCain campaign. You really outsmarted the hell out of the Huckabee voters.
The alternatives were for McCain delegates to
1. Go to Huckabee
2. Do nothing
3. Go to Romney
1. gives them the ability to pick up some delegates 2. would have given Romney the win, and 3. would have given Romney the win.
I think that we can all agree that there is no realistic possibility for Huck to win the nomination, how is picking up some delegates and increasing his mojo at the national convention a bad thing for Huck's supporters?
How exactly does Huck winning a state mean his supporters have been outsmarted?
If I were to switch my vote from Huckabee it would go to McCain first. I know of no Huck supporters who would switch to Romney first. Romney lost all my respect months ago, and has only reinforced my dislike since. It would take a major nose plug to vote for McCain, but no where near the severe rhinoplasty I'd have to undergo to vote for Mitt.
I support Governor Mike Huckabee for President.
Coalitions of convenience and strategic voting has been part of the political scene in America since the writing of the Constitution, if not before.
"It's not fair" has never been part of the conservative vocabulary. And how would you define fair, anyway...Is it fair that 1000 voters decide for all Republicans, is it fair that plurality doesn't prevail, is it fair that the caucuses were held at the time they were, is it fair that only Republicans get to participate...we could go on arguing over "fair' from now to election day...2012.
And if as a referee, you base you decisions upon "being fair" rather than following and enforcing the rules of the game, God help you!
The point is that at some point in time, the players have to decide on the rules of the contest, and then you play within that structure - whether sports, or primary elections.
Or would you rather we settle matters by force of arms?
I was rereading about Henry II yesterday - now those were the days of politics for keeps.
By the way, Eleanor of Aquitaine bears an uncanny resemblence to Hillary.
The thought's what counts :)
Forgive me, it's been a while since I've had a chance to take a real swipe at Huckabee, he's fallen off so...
Option 1: They are committed to amending the Constitution "so it's in God's standards."
Option 2: The should be committed (to an institution where the footware of choice is fuzzy slippers)!
That is sleezy politics right there. My respect for McCain and Huck has become nil. And good for Romney for sticking with it and not sacrificing his platform to form some alliance. That takes courage.
Courage becomes a living and an attractive virtue when it is regarded not only as a willingness to die manfully, but also as a determination to live decently.
I have made little effort to hide my belief that McCain has taken numerous positions with which I passionately disagree. So, am I disappointed in the results of the WV convention? Duh!
But there have been innumerable posts/blogs on here about strategic voting coming from all sorts of candidates supporters so this is nothing new. My belief that Huck and McCain have had a strategic alliance since IA may be true (or not), I may believe that the media has given him a total pass about dropping out (compared to Fred & Rudy) but politics ain't bean bag and I would've hoped Mitt's people would have done the same thing if they had the chance. I know I would've.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
He is telling his listeners that the WV win is part of a "conspiracy". "Something is fishy here". What a hack.
Alleging political conspiricacy when you candidate doesn't win and all the rules are followed was annoying when the left did it FL in 2000, and here in Ohio in 2004. Your horse lost, Sean. Get over it.
You know I always thought Hannity seemed like a nice guy, but he never struck me as a particularly bright bulb. Which makes it even funnier that he's considered the smart one on H&C.
NC
At the California Republican Assembly convention the early straw poll showed Fred Thompson winning. On the final day, a bus of Romney folks showed up registered for the convention just to vote.
Rudy and Fred has previously agreed to trade delegates if necessary to keep Romney from winning.
Guess the whole GOP is against Mitt.
Hannity and Limbaugh are just flat out killing their own credibility now.
If they really cared about conservatism, they would have picked the best conservative in the race, long before it was down to two viable candidates.
Hannity is picking on McCain encouraging people to call talk radio, the Thompson campaign did the same thing. Haven't looked at other campaigns, its fairly standard strategy... an easy way for people to get involved.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
Rush is not killing his credibility. It is going to happen in Nov. (when McCain loses) or during the next 4 years (if he wins) Rush is going to have a hugh I TOLD YOU SO moment.
You are all hoping McCain will not disappoint.
Prepare yourselves for multiple helpings of crow.
is no reason to call him a hack or a crybaby. He just happens to hold to his conservative principles more than you do
would everyone here be talking about the sleazy Romney move?
They had to vote for either Romney or Huck, that's how the rules were set up.
Maybe next time we can have a normal primary.
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But only because people here like to whine. It wouldn't make them right though.
If attempting to do the best you can for your campaign within the rules is too sleazy for some people, maybe they should stick to something a little more low key than politics.
"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning
It's legal. It's clever. It's politically expedient. It's sleazy.
Kill the terrorists
Protect the borders
Punch the hippies -- Frank J
Between the guy with the 3rd most delegates backing the guy with the second most delegates vs. the guy with the most delegates in the first round of voting.
The state convention was set up for precisely this sort of horse trading.
If no supporters had moved on the second ballot, nobody would have won.
since you insist on making some kind of debate about it [remember, I said it was legal, clever, and expedient], then here's the difference.
Candidate A was the most popular candidate on the ballot. He lost.
Kill the terrorists
Protect the borders
Punch the hippies -- Frank J
Essentially what is being said is, who is the candidate most of us can agree on as a majority. This is one of the reason's polling 2nd choices is so important.
I think this showed Romney has a very strong base, but those not in his base will have nothing to do with him.
"Now is not time for the philosophical flexibility of our principles." Fred Dalton Thompson
Jason in NorCal
I'm down in stocks today, I failed a quiz this morning, and Romney got punked in WV. I think for the rest of the day I'm going to get my analysis from MSNBC so I can look back on this day as the worst day of my young life.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
The day is still young. We cannot state how the night is going to go like based of of a 1000 person caucus/convention.
It's just like with the polls. Like in CA: I am glad Romney is shown to be up, but we won't know until the votes are counted.
X-Angel
Well, mostly because this WV business is depressing, but also because we're up to 235 comments on this one.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
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It's getting full in here. Let's move to a new open thread
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The "Anybody But Romney" vote was split between Huckabee and McCain. That works only in a caucus such as this, with a majority required, but it could throw a primary contest by splitting the anti-Romney vote.
It's also a shame that conservatives have only people to oppose, whether it be Romney, McCain, or Huckabee.
Romney goes from 41% to.....47%??? Really? Really really? I can't believe they liked Huckabee so convincingly as their #2. I think it gives some wind to Huckabee's sails and may shake things up in the south. Then again probably not. This is probably just more fuel on the fire for the ABM movement. In that sense this could, in the end, pull its own weight.
Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.
-White Goodman
who honestly cares about conservative values should move to Romney with the writing on the wall that their candidate is leading them on.
Move on over and vote for Huckabee. He's more conservative, a better communicator and has a better sense of humor...
Well, don't quote me on this but this little Huckabee/McCain alliance is only going to work among strong populations of Southern Baptist (I'm not even saying evangelicals in general anymore after seeing results out west and up north.) Only those blinded by the religious zeal that Huckabee is trying to instill in his Christian Army could possibly mistake him for being more conservative than Romney.
Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.
-White Goodman
Alot of us haven't drank the Rush/Hannity/Ingraham Kool-Aid. Congrats in defeating Romney!
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here's a link for a liveblog of the WV convention. http://sourappletree.blogspot.com/2008/02/live-blogging-wv-gop-convetion...