Redstate

Or, as some would put it: the 'Stache, and the Shmoo.

By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | John Bolton | John Bolton's 'Stache | John McCain | Robert Gates — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

As we gear up for the start of the 2008 Presidential election season some time in the next few days (I'll explain what I mean by that tomorrow), the traditional "Who gets what in a X Administration?" game has started up. While the VP speculation is probably most prominent, the final assignment of Cabinet posts is also of note. Indeed, given the weakness of a hypothetical Obama Presidency at national security issues, his choices for SecDef or SecState are probably more important than his Vice Presidential pick. To put it bluntly, Obama needs to have people in both positions whose presence will reassure the American voting public that actual grownups are in charge of our foreign policy*.

Which makes this Times Online piece on Robert Gates, and this WSJ piece by John Bolton, of interest.

Read on.

Let's start with the Gates piece:

Barack Obama may recruit defence chief Robert Gates
Sarah Baxter in Washington

In defiance of traditional party labels, Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, may ask the defence secretary of President George W Bush to stay on if he wins the White House.

Obama’s top foreign policy and national security advisers are pressing the case for keeping Robert Gates at the Pentagon after he won widespread praise for his performance. The move would be in keeping with Obama’s desire to appoint a cabinet of all the talents.

After appealing for unity with former rival Hillary Clinton and her supporters and big donors last week, Obama, 46, is turning his attention to wooing Republicans and independent voters who may be concerned that he lacks the experience to be trusted with America’s defence.

Yeah, the implicit contradiction between the second and third paragraphs jumped out at me, too (as did the somewhat hasty assumption that Obama has already locked up support with Clinton's supporters, but that's a yet third post). Nonetheless, a Gates pick by Obama would indicate the following things:

1). There will be no retreat from Iraq. And never mind what the netroots want, or what Obama's told them already. He also told them he was going to accept public financing, filibuster FISA, and that he thought that Washington's gun ban was Constitutional.

2). Even the Democrats themselves admit that they are not the party judged most competent to run American foreign policy. This will probably offend even more people than #1, mostly because it's ranging opposite to a long-standing agitprop exercise by the Democratic base. Then again, #1 demonstrates the level of concern that the Democratic Establishment has towards to the sensibilities of the Democratic base.

Is Bob Gates the best choice for SecDef? No. Does he beat out any Democrat that a hypothetical Obama administration would dare choose? Easily. If Obama picked him for the slot, should Obama be congratulated for the choice? I suppose yes... although it would have been simpler all around if he had not hypocritically given the netroots false hopes. It's not like they have any alternatives, after all, and they whine so when they lose.

Do I expect Obama to make this pick? Not really. You need a touch of cowboy to get away with that sort of thing.

Moving along, John Bolton has finally broken with the Bush administration over North Korea:

The Tragic End of Bush's North Korea Policy
By JOHN R. BOLTON
June 30, 2008

Maskirovka – the Soviet dark art of denial, deception and disguise – is alive and well in Pyongyang, years after the Soviet Union disappeared. Unfortunately, the Bush administration appears not to have gotten the word.

With much fanfare and choreography, but little substance, the administration has accepted a North Korean "declaration" about its nuclear program that is narrowly limited, incomplete and almost certainly dishonest in material respects. In exchange, President Bush personally declared that North Korea is no longer a state sponsor of terrorism or an enemy of the United States. In a final flourish, North Korea has undertaken a reverse Potemkin Village act, destroying the antiquated cooling tower of the antiquated Yongbyon reactor. In the waning days of American presidencies, this theater is the stuff of legacy.

Bolton's a hardliner on North Korea, of course (whether his op-ed is right or not is yet a fourth article, which I will not be writing) - but what's interesting is that he has pretty comprehensively established daylight between himself and the current administration here... and not by going to the center, which is the usual rule of thumb for rogue former administration officials. Then again, most of those sorts are usually either planning to, or do, have a book out. I am not aware that Bolton is doing either, so let's look at this from a next-year perspective.

It's no secret that the McCain campaign is running on a campaign where their differences from the Bush administration are highlighted (and that the Obama campaign is quietly desperate to link them to Bush). Doing this requires appeals to both the center and to disaffected conservatives - and while Bolton is largely unknown to the former** his name conjures much power among the latter. It's long been my contention that McCain should actively get Bolton on-side for his campaign; and I suspect that this article should be seen as an indication that Bolton is ready to be courted.

Do I expect McCain to make that pick? Not yet. As I noted at the beginning of this piece, the race hasn't actually quite started yet.

Moe Lane

*I certainly hope that sentence either annoyed, outraged, and/or amused any Democrat/progressive reading this. The first group needs to be reminded of this elementary fact: the second needs to have their face rubbed in this elementary fact, which they themselves know to be true (that's why they're outraged, you see); and the third is in precisely the mental head space that I want them to be in.

**Yeah, I know: hard to grasp. But, remember: we all live deep in a sea that the average, normal (never forget that: we're the crazy ones) American only briefly dips into, once every four years.