That Seems Awfully Close For An Impending Landslide
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It isn't as if I have my head in the sand, or anything. I know that it is an uphill struggle for Republicans nowadays and that the political situation for Democrats is quite favorable. All indications are that Barack Obama will win the Presidency and if he does, I would not be surprised in the slightest.
Which is why I am surprised by this:
Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party.
Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll, in late April. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.
The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.
But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white suburban women, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive. While Sen. Obama has a slight lead among white women generally, a plurality of suburbanites prefer Sen. McCain.
The news isn't all bad for Obama, but it is bad enough. Worse yet: This is a poll of registered voters. Likely voters may cut the lead even further and show McCain in a stronger position yet. I am in no position whatsoever to say for certain that John McCain will win this election. But--distressingly enough for the Obama campaign--he certainly seems to be hanging in there, doesn't he?