That Seems Awfully Close For An Impending Landslide
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It isn't as if I have my head in the sand, or anything. I know that it is an uphill struggle for Republicans nowadays and that the political situation for Democrats is quite favorable. All indications are that Barack Obama will win the Presidency and if he does, I would not be surprised in the slightest.
Which is why I am surprised by this:
Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party.
Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll, in late April. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.
The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse.
But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white suburban women, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive. While Sen. Obama has a slight lead among white women generally, a plurality of suburbanites prefer Sen. McCain.
The news isn't all bad for Obama, but it is bad enough. Worse yet: This is a poll of registered voters. Likely voters may cut the lead even further and show McCain in a stronger position yet. I am in no position whatsoever to say for certain that John McCain will win this election. But--distressingly enough for the Obama campaign--he certainly seems to be hanging in there, doesn't he?
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That Seems Awfully Close For An Impending Landslide 5 Comments (0 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Also I was unable to find if they listed the % from each Party. While the WSJ is now a Newscorp paper, NBC and others like it (CNN, ABC, CBS) all have polls that favor Obama, giving 45% Dem 30% Indy and 25% Repub. Even to the point that last week ABC redid a poll in order to move 2 more % to Dem and 2% to Indy and Obama still only was leading by 6%. If you skew the polls enough one way people will say "Oh he's a shoe in lets back him" they can change the election easily with their lies.
Voting for the Sexy(Pres) - Sexy(VP) Dream Ticket
Jindal/Palin 2012
Well, I think he has a 20% chance.
1. 1 million new Democrats registered
2. Massive enthusiasm gap
3. Obama leads in most polls
4. Massive money edge for Obama
5. Massive efforts by unions and left-wing activist groups on behalf of Obama
6. McCain has neutralized energy as a campaign issue - an area where the GOP has a winning issue.
7. People like Drudge, Peggy Noonan, George Will, Bruce Bartlett, and others are negative on McCain, and some are outright positive for Obama.
8. The GOP may come out and vote for McCain, but he won't have the volunteer army and enthusiasm that Bush had. Obama will.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I think your number 8 hits the mark. The main problem with candidates who don't excite their base is not that their base won't go out and vote for them, but that their base won't grassroots for them.
"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus
6% isn't close, its 3% more than the margin of error.
Considering the poll only had women at 51% when in reality they consist of about 54% of the voting electorate, that African Americans make up 12% of the voting electorate but only represented 10% of the electorate in this pole, and that people ages 18-29 make up 17% of the voting population but in this poll they were only at 13%.
This poll was electorally slanted toward McCain.
And the poll has no cross section of vote based on race, class or sex. So the author is a liar when he says Obama has a middle class white male problem.