The Aftermath of Super Tuesday
Huckabee Overperforms, Romney Underperforms, McCain Performs
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (101) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Overall, the popular vote (76% reporting at CNN):
1. Surprising many, GOV Huckabee pulled narrow victories in GA, TN, AL, and WV to add to his home state win in AR. Huckabee continues to fail to appeal outside the South. He would make a great Senator of Arkansas.
2. Romney slightly underperformed. He won his home states of UT and MA and he showed his continued success at caucuses, winning ND, MT, CO, and MN. However, his weaknesses were undeniable. Romney came in third in the South stealing votes from either McCain or Huckabee. And he showed a surprising weakness in primary states where no one had a tie to the state (CA, MO, CT, NJ, NY). Overall, Romney seemed to hit a ceiling of support based on his coalition. His chance of winning the nomination is negligible.
3. The number of Democratic voters vastly outnumbers the Republicans in most states. Even in the South and in solid Republican states like Oklahoma, there were more Democratic votes. Whoever wins the nomination still faces a big uphill battle.
4. McCain expanded on the same formula he used in NH, SC, and FL. He won moderates and mildly conservative voters while making inroads with more conservative voters. His acceptance speech was another olive branch to conservatives. However, until he is officially the Last Man Standing, it is unlikely that conservatives will give him a chance to win them back.
Finally, mathematically, McCain maximized his advantage by winning a lot of WTA states: NY, NJ, CT, DE, AZ and MO. Thus, the tiny victory in MO sends 57 delegates McCain's way. And while his 51-41 loss in MA only translates into a 22-17 delegate loss, his 47-34 win in AZ gave him all 53 delegates. The two home states combined become a 70-22 McCain advantage. If the current CA results hold up (44-25), McCain will take over 150 of the 173 there.
Based on rough estimates, it seems the delegate count will be roughly:
I'll write more tomorrow after parsing the exit polls.