The Iowa Caucuses: Predictions For The Democratic Side
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Democrats | Iowa Caucus — Comments (28) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Edwards: 31
Obama: 30
Clinton: 24
Biden: 7
Richardson: 4
Dodd: 3
Kucinich: 1
UPDATE: D'oh! I foolishly forgot about people dropping out. Once the votes are taken for the top three, I predict Edwards at 36%, Obama at 35% and Clinton bringing up the rear at 29%.
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And if she is your first choice find a therapist.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
Clinton 32
Obama 30
Edwards 28
Richardson 6
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Edwards 37
Obama 33
Clinton 30
I think everyone with less than 15% gets folded into the big three, right?
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Develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable. Milton Friedman
... but I hope you're wrong. I want Edwards' candidacy to be over after Iowa. As much as I'd hate it, I could live with a Hillary presidency or even an Obama presidency, but I really, really don't think I could live under an Edwards administration. Can you imagine?
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According to Democrats, it’s greedy to want to keep your own money, but it’s “justice” to demand someone else’s.
--Jonah Goldberg
But I think that Edwards is catching fire in Iowa at precisely the right time and he has the best ground game in the state to boot.
"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." --Friedrich Nietzsche
the wind chill is Des Moines is 17 right now. The colder it is, the more it helps haircut.
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Molon Labe!
looks when I wore that in Colorado in a blizzard...I guess I am a tad bit insane...or at least abnormal...Dang it!
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I'd not wear sandals in a snow storm any more than a rain storm, a sand storm, a media storm, Desert Storm, a storm shelter, a Seattle Storm game, a party for Stormin' Norman ... you get the picture.
And anyway, where are your boots, Texan?
absentee
For the Dem caucus, if a candidate doesn't get 15% support in a precinct, his supporters have to choose someone else to back. So Biden, Richardson, Dodd, etc. will end up with zero (or nearly so). I'm guessing most of those voters go to Obama? Enough anyway to push him into first:
Obama 37%
Edwards 32%
Clinton 30%
Other 1%
... have asked their voters to back Obama, but for some reason I have a hunch they will largely go to Edwards (especially the Kucinich voters).
Just about everyone tells me that Edwards is not a threat in the primaries or the general. I really, really want to believe them, but the man scares me. Much more than any candidate.
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According to Democrats, it’s greedy to want to keep your own money, but it’s “justice” to demand someone else’s.
--Jonah Goldberg
Because Edwards accepted public financing, he will only be able to spend approximately $41 million between now and the democratic convention in August. If Romney is the nominee, I wouldn't be surprised if he threw down $200 million before the convention. That is a crushing advantage. It's for this reason that Edwards is my preferred opponent. If Edwards starts looking like a threat to win the dem nomination, I expect this financial disadvantage will be pointed out extensively by Hillary and Obama.
I generally agree with you post, although because candidate support is unevenly distributed, the candidates with non-trivial single digit support, such as Biden and Richarson, will be viable in some precincts and capture some state delegates. After all, Kuncinich was only polling at around 4% in 2004, and he managed enough viability to finish with 1.3%. Someone like Richardson, who is polling closer to 8-9%, would do much better than that, say 6-7%.
Dad was the first to recover. "Imagination." he said, his big red face crinkling in that grin that always drove the cops crazy when they were arresting him. "That's what comes of sending good working-class boys to rich people's colleges. Words and books get all mixed up with reality in their heads. When you were in that jail in Mississippi you imagined yourself through the walls, didn't you? How many times an hour did you imagine yourself through the walls? I can guess. The first time I was arrested, during the GE strike of thirty-three, I walked through those walls a million times. But every time I opened my eyes, the walls and the bars were still there. What got me out finally? What got you out of Biloxi finally? Organization. If you want big words to talk to intellectuals with, that's a fine big word, son, just as many syllables as imagination, and it has a lot more realism in it."
Illuminatus!, by Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Shea, page 63
That's why.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
33, 33, and 33. Close enough that no one can claim a clear-cut victory (but Clinton will because she's been managing expectations downward, as the lowlife she's married to her husband did in 1992).
You have Edwards, Obama, and Clinton all going up by 5% after the drop-outs. Taking your original percentages, I think the drop-out supporters go to:
Obama - 7%
Edwards - 5%
Clinton - 3%
Which would give Obama the win.
That will keep a lot of Democrats and independents from interfering in our contest. I want to see Hillary as their nominee, but Obama could use some momentum to keep the Democrats involved on their own side. I don't think Edwards would provide the same kind of push.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
...better be rooting for Hillary to win the nomination - whatever happens in Iowa.
I hope that she gets bruised and battered along the way, but for God's sake she better win the nomination.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
And hopefully, the Clinton campaign machine browbeats the Democrat party so much during the run that even more of them get fed up with the direction their party has gone.
a Hillary or Edwards headlining the ticket wouldn't be that bad for the Republican nominee...Obama, however, leading the ticket, could result in a more difficult win for the GOP.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
Strongly disagree. Hillary must be stopped. If she can be knocked out in the primary, so much the better. Hope for Edwards and his limited funds if you want weak opponent, but don't root for Hillary - it's bad for the soul.
Not sure on the percentages, but I think it'll go down like this:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
I think Obama wins by a little more than the polls say as a lot of his caucus goers are first timers.
I agree with you about Edwards sneaking through for the win. I posted a prediction in another thread, but here's a repeat with percentages after the under-15's are removed.:
Edwards narrowly in first place (35%)
Obama in second (34%)
Clinton comes in third at (31%)
I think #3 is solid. As someone on the radio said a few minutes ago, "Hillary's nobodys second choice."
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.