The Iowa Caucuses: Predictions For The Republican Side
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Iowa Caucus | Republicans — Comments (68) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Oh, I'm probably wrong in making these predictions. But if I'm right, it would be dazzling.
Anyway, here goes:
Thompson: 22
Romney: 21
Huckabee: 20
McCain: 17
Paul: 11
Giuliani: 9.
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The Iowa Caucuses: Predictions For The Republican Side 68 Comments (0 topical, 68 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I believe Huckaflea and Romney will eat each other alive, thus leaving the caucus goers for Thompson to claim.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
There is nothing like dreaming, but dream on. I can only hope the top two are correct, but would like to flip them.
Pejman,
I just want to say say that while I hope Romney wins this, I don't think I could make myself upset if your predictions came true. As long as Huckabee loses and Romney or Thompson is first, I think I'll be okay.
"Politics is the business of trying to convince fools to do the right thing."
-Braden Pace
But that Fred will come in first place...well...I have a very cynical friend who likes to say, "Hope is the last to die." :-)
Agreed. Romney is my first pick, but Thompson is the only other guy out there who I could really get behind. We need those two on top.
Frankly, I'd love to see Thompson come in the top 3. It would definitely suck some of the air out of McCain's campaign and (of course) obviously make some room for Thompson.
Beyond all else, not Huckabee. I've come to the point where I far prefer Giuliani over him.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
What I think:
Huckabee: 30
Romney: 30
Paul: 12
Thompson: 11
McCain: 10
Guiliani: 7
What I hope for:
Huckabee: 40
Romney: 20
McCain: 18
Paul: 12
Thompson: 9
Guilian: 1
We will know this evening.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
I remembering reading about how Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander shocked the GOP Establishment by how well they did in the Iowa Caucus, in 1996. With three percentage points more, Pat would have won it... According to George Will, this would likely have caused Bob Dole to drop out of the presidential race. Alan Keyes took 8 percent in that contest, which could have impacted things.
With Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) out, it would be great if Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) took first or second place in today's key vote.
On the Democrat side, I hope that Hillary falls... A third-place finish would be great.
Mike Huckabee - 30%
Mitt Romney - 19%
Fred Thompson - 18%
Ron Paul - 14%
John McCain - 13%
Rudy Giuliani - 5%
Duncan Hunter - 1%
Barack Obama - 38%
John Edwards - 29%
Hillary Clinton - 25%
Bill Richardson - 5%
Joe Biden - 2%
Others - 1%
Source: http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2008/the_iowa_caucuses_predict...
If that happens, I will be serving deep southern fried crow with a warm glass of "shut the he_l up" to the so-called mainstream media, especially faux news.
From your keyboard to God's ear.
Of course, I was thinking about getting to God's bit/byte receptor, but whatever.
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
I heard it was about 200 and that there were a huge number of staffers from his campaign there. The event was extremely close to a Fred campaign office.
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
I just spent the last 20 minutes backtracking the websites I've visited to try and find it. There are so many updated blogs today that I can't find it. I think it was titled "A Fred Surge?" - the question mark was in the title I didn't add it.
Anyway, I'm confident what I posted was in a blog SOMEWHERE...but I can't get the source, sorry.
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
You made me mad so I looked again and found it.
http://dyn.politico.com/playbook/
MIDDAY DEBRIEFS WITH POLITICOS IN IOWA:
1) Ben Adler with FRED THOMPSON: "Although rumors swirl that his campaign is about to fold, and his choice to only hold one low-key event on Tuesday reinforced the perception that he isn't trying very hard to reverse his falling poll numbers, Fred Thompson seems to be going out with the closest thing his campaign has had to a bang. His event in West Des Moines this morning drew a crowd of 200-plus. That's not impressive by the standards of most front-runners, but it's larger than any crowd he has addressed in Iowa in recent days. His total was padded by the fact that his volunteers and staffers who work out of his nearby office were all in attendance. Thompson's usually soporific performance was a little more energetic this morning. He hit his applause lines harder and got more audience excitement than usual. His schedule today is stuffed with television and radio appearances."
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
excuse my hyperbole and give me some props for finding the source in the bottomless pit of political blogs today?
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
I was being a bit snarky, and also a bit understanding about how hectic the sphere has been spinning today.
But I'm glad to know that being pushed a bit further made you look a bit more. I also share the above comment.
It's always a lot more work to dig up a reference than it is to make a snarky comment questioning the existence of a reference.
Let me follow your example and throw in a related link. It looks like Thompson's campaign is understandably a little sensitive about the numbers it draws. On Monday Thompson's campaign exaggerated the attendance at an event. It claimed 150 people had come, when there were only 86, including staff and media.
Recognizing that Iowa is notoriously difficult to predict, let's accept that as a caveat and compare Pej's prediction against the RCP average...
Huck underperforms by 9.7% (20 vs. an RCP Avg. 29.7)
Romney underperforms by 5.7% (21 vs. 26.7)
Thompson overperforms by 10.3% (22 vs. 11.7)
McPain overperforms by 5.2% (17 vs. 11.8)
Paul overperforms by 3.7% (11 vs. 7.3)
Rudy overperforms by 3% (9 vs. 6)
Well, I wouldn't much mind this result (my 1 and 2 finishing 2 and 1) - but, heh.
We'll know soon enough.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
I don't know where to even start looking for that data. I'm pretty sure though people were talking about Jean Francois "coming on" well before the day of the '04 caucus, though. To the point that if I recall he was expected to win but the shock was how poorly Dr. Howeird did.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
I have no clue where to get the info either.
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
... I'll be sure to update it here.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Romney 29
Huckabee 26
Thompson 15
McCain 14
Paul 7
Giuliani 6
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I think "who finishes third?" might actually be a more important question than "who wins?" If Fred falls to fourth place (and McCain does seem to have some momentum), his campaign's in big trouble, methinks.
peace,
lilnev
That looks about right to me, except I think McCain and Fred will swap, with McCain in third place. I wish it were otherwise, however.
But I expect Fred to be a distant (tho still in the race) third, and don't expect him to hit 20%.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
from 17% to 20% he will be fine. After what he take from the MSM and the article that he would drop out after IA and endorse McCain he has done well. He just needs to get to the next debate do as well as he did in the last and he will on a roll
"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."
John Paul Jones (letter to M. Le Ray de Chaumont,16 Nov.1778)
Huckabee 29
Romney 24
Thompson 18
McCain 13
Giuliani 9
Paul 5
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Develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable. Milton Friedman
Let's hope you're right and the folks in Iowa vote for the best candidate instead of the best campaign!
Visit The Scratching Post!
more than I want you to be right in your predictions.
pollster! and my new hero! courageous and wise...
janet ney
www.californiaforthompson.com
Huck 32
Fred 21
Mitt 16
McCain 16
Giuliani 9
Paul 6
I know I'm wrong, but so what. It's how you play the game that counts, not the results, right?
www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie
in your predictions...I mean if you're going to dream, and puttig Huck with 32 is dreaming, at least give Fred the win with 25 and then put Mitt second with 23 and Huck at 3rd with 16...that seems about right to me...
and I'm not dreaming and I've taken my medications...
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I went to bed and had visions of caucus ballots dancing in my head. All night long the ballots were floating in the air among red, white and blue clouds. The ballots were lit by the stars, and they said: FDT FDT FDT FDT FDT FDT...
Who knew Benadryl was a hallucinogen?
www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie
For just saying no to that stupid global warming question. As the voters freeze they will remember.
Also predict people are going to demand a warmer time for their caucus.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I think that got him five extra votes, not five percentage points.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Romney 29%
Huckabee 25%
McCain 15%
Obama 36%
Edwards 31%
Clinton 29%
Huck 31
Mitt 28
John 16
Ron 10
Fred 08
Rudy 05
Dunc 02
Mitt: 25
Huck: 22
Fred: 19
John: 14
Ron: 11
Rudy: 7
Duncan: 2
Alan: 1. Vote.
Mitt: 23
Mike: 20
Fred: 15
Rudy: 14
John: 9
Ron : 3
Undecided/other: 15
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Will be pretty darn close to this:
Huckabee 33
Romney 25
McCain 14
Paul 11
Thompson 8
Guliani 5
And wouldn't be surprised by an even bigger turnout by evangelicals for Huck so that he beats mitt by at least 10. Passion beats money.
I posted in another predictions thread that got lost, but this time I'll add some numbers. Plus, I think the trend has changed a bit more today.
Romney: 23%
Huckabee: 21%
Thompson: 20%
McCain: 18%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 8%
I think Huckabee wins big, Paul surprises everyone.
Huckabee 31%
Romney 24%
Paul 14%
McCain 13%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
that McCain is worried about a possible third place finish for RP. That would be something.
"We're hoping for the best, but we need to prepare for the worst." -Fred D. Thompson
I think Paul coming in 3rd would be a nightmare for both those candidates. I really believe this year will be an odd year in Iowa. There are no true "sure things" on each side. There is no VP running, no President running. I think we will see a lot of new caucus goers on both sides, people who would not be polled by the major media prior to this day. I think you're going to see candidates like Obama and Paul benefit from this. Paul is getting people who are not typical Republican primary voters, and Obama is getting a young group that has never voted before in a primary. If they show up and are not just talk, I think we can a 3rd place for Paul and strong victory for Obama.
Huckabee 32%
Romney 30%
Thompson 13%
McCain 12%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
This should be good enough to get Huckabee a supporting role in movie remake of "Walker, Texas Ranger."
or thinks voting for Huckaflea is going to get him some kind of special consideration in order to make into 'monkey heaven'...Because Huckaflea will not be doing that well tonight...he will either finish 2nd or 3rd..Fred wins it...
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I'm completely baffled how anyone who is conservative can vote for Huckabee. He reminds me of the toothless mountainman from Deliverance and I fear he will do to our party what he and his kin did to Ned Beatty.
We need the two conservatives to finish one, two.
No matter what issues are on the table, some people in this country vote for the guy they would rather sit down for dinner with. I don't care for Huckabee's politics much, but it's hard to deny that he has a lot of charisma and is extremely likeable.
With a little wind at his back!
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm


You didn't just step out on a limb - you jumped right off the end.
But I gotta respect you for taking the risk....
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm