The Money Game
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
We haven't really talked fundraising numbers around here and I thought I would.
First up, Rudy raised $15 million in the second quarter and has $15 million cash on hand. That's pretty impressive and puts him in first place with both money raised and in polling.
Second is Romney. This is where the real surprise is. Romney raised $14 million and he has cash on hand of $12 million. But, and here is the kicker, if you subtract the personal loan and contribution, Romney has cash on hand of $3 million — $1 million more than McCain. Of course, that's all a hypothetical exercise because Romney is in this to win and has a personal fortune that enables him to make contributions without repayment. Take that, couple it with the knowledge that a lot of Romney expenditures were one time capital outlays, and combine both with this article and you have a very formidable candidate. Romney is investing heavily in micro-targeting. So, a guy who is currently 8% to 11% nationally in the polls can focus mostly on a few states at a time doing some serious micro-targeting and still win the state by state Presidential Preference Primaries.
Read on . . .
Lastly, there is John McCain. He raised $11 million and has $2 million on hand. Not only does he have only $2 million on hand, he's now considering federal funding and is cutting salaries for staff. In fact, his campaign manager, Terry Nelson, will go without a salary (McCain might should be getting Nelson to pay back the campaign). Nelson, in an AP report, said
t one point, we thought we could raise $100 million over the course of this campaign and we constructed a campaign to fit that.
Putting it bluntly, I don't know anyone outside the beltway who thought McCain, post 2002, would be capable of that. And, after the 2005-2006 immigration battle, there really was no way.
As I've said all along, McCain won't be the GOP nominee because he lost the Limbaugh primary years ago. Few beyond hardcore activists know anything about McCain other than Rush Limbaugh's dislike of the guy. A large part of Rush's listeners agree with him and vote in the GOP primary, making McCain's hurdle even more difficult. These fundraising numbers just bolster that difficulty.
All in all, however, we can't count out McCain. He has some serious talent, some serious drive, and a real serious craving for this. As John Fund notes in the Opinion Journal Political Diary
a leaner and perhaps meaner McCain operation will focus on the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Its slimmed-down campaign staff will return to the guerilla tactics that served Mr. McCain so well during his insurgent 2000 effort.
I think it is safe to say John McCain is a dead man walking, but he just might get a reprieve.
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | Something's Missing . . . — Comments (5) »
The Money Game 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
He's not a candidate and is thus precluded from raising money to do anything more than run his "exploratory committee".
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I think it's also instructive to look at number of donors.
Romney 80,000
McCain 72,000
Giuliani 56,000
That means the Giuliani is relying on larger donors and NY certainly has come through for him there. The problem of course is some of them can't contribute again. Romney's 80k must have been with smaller amounts especially since he loaned himself money to make it look competitive. The numbers indicate that he has some good support though and of course he's got money to self finance so for him the number of donors probably is more important than total dollars because word of mouth and real local support are key in primaries. McCain would do doing OK if he didn't have such high expenses and he's cutting back on that. If his numbers don't plummet as a result I think he will have time to wait for a potential comeback.
On the other hand, Obama had 258,000 donors alone. Even assuming no overlap in Republican donors to the top 3 candidates he topped their combined total with like an extra 25% for good measure. That's insane. Hillary had like 60k so she is similar to Giuliani is that her donors are large ones since she raised even more money from roughly the same number of people.
Can big donors outraise small contributors in large numbers? In the Republican camp the answer appears to be no, but for the Democrats it's starting to look that way. I'm betting the internet is the real difference and why Obama's numbers are so high. No matter what, large numbers of donors (and thus connections to voters) is a great strategy since they will become more likely to virtual phone bank or participate locally and that's real useful in a primary... In the general election once the DNC/RNC/etc get involved it's less important.
not surprisingly on Red State, there are alot of false figures being bandied about regarding Giuliani.
I am not sure if it is just ignorance, or trying to constantly portray Rudy as weaker than he is.
1) Rudy actually raised 17 million dollars in Q2(not the 15 stated) and has 18 million dollars on hand (not the 15 Erick wrote). Now those are the correct PRIMARY numbers- but he didn't state that in his blog as being only for the primary without including the stronger general election figures as well. Thus, giving an impression that he is weaker than he is (actually having 3 million more in the bank for the general election than any other candidate is no small potatoes when it comes to beating Hillary)
2) not sure where you got those numbers regarding Rudy contributors- but they are incorrect.
I don't mind if you are going to support other candidates, but don't misrepresent the truth.
United States Air Force
http://airforcepundit.blogspot.com
From the original post:
First up, Rudy raised $15 million in the second quarter and has $15 million cash on hand. That's pretty impressive and puts him in first place with both money raised and in polling.
Yeah, here at RedState, we make it a point to take shots at Rudy Giuliani whenever possible. Good God, how the man didn't fall over dead from that last sentence alone is beyond mortal ken.
-----------
We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
that AFC has moved on from "Rudy is the only one who can win!!11!!!oneone!!!111!!eleven!!!!11!" broken record...
___________________________________
The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
AFC, I'm comparing apples to apples. Rudy raised $15 million for the primaries and $2 million for the general. He can't touch the $2 million unless he is the nominee.
Lower your hypersensitivity monitor and dry your outraged tears.
I think a lot of people miss the primary/general distinction. Apparently that's also important on the Democratic side, since Sen. Clinton often gets people to just write her two checks at once, inflating her figures vs. Sen. Obama.
Run like Reagan!
I'm guessing that since you're coming here and accusing Erick of falsifying numbers that have been reported in CQ and elsewhere, that you have some sort of evidence to back up your assertion that he's wrong about virtually everything in this post?
I mean, I don't really expect that you *have* any - I don't think I've ever seen anything in your long posting history here that was not some form of ipse dixit, but I'm curious as to whether maybe one of the other Rudy supporters might be able to provide a link or something.
------------
[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...
-John Locke
The New York Daily News today reported on fund raising...
Giuliani was the only GOP main contender to raise more money in the second quarter than the first. He reported $17 million for the second quarter, compared with $16 million for the first, and had $18million on hand.
On the other hand, in New Jersey polling, Quinnipiac is reporting...
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has gained some ground on former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in a 2008 presidential matchup in New Jersey and now trails the Republican front-runner 47 - 44 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 49 - 40 percent Giuliani lead April 19.But if New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs as an independent presidential candidate, New Jersey voters give Sen. Clinton 36 percent, with 36 percent for Mayor Giuliani and 18 percent for Mayor Bloomberg, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Highlights are mine...
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I think that Thompson's entry is pushing us back towards an older model of Regional candidates.
Rudy will win New York , New Jersey, and maybe Florida and California. Big States, and he'll run well elsewhere in states that haven't seen much of the campaigns just because of name recognition.
Thompson will win most of the South.
That leaves Romney and McCain fighting over the Mid-West and the Mountain West.
Both have strong support in Michigan and the West. Unfortunately for them, if both are still in the race by Feb. 5th they could divide the vote in those regions, probably resulting in Guiliani wining the Mid-West, and Thompson winning the West.
I think that is why McCain has focused his attacks on Romney.
I'm not acceding to your hypothesis, but in the interest of stimulating interesting thought...
What would happen if the Convention came around with no clear winner? Could we see the return of the smoke-filled back-room bargaining and dealing? Could we even see,
Just curious.
thoughts...
as now he seems to be burning money as fast as he gets it too. I know Romney has been running cable
ads but what the heck are these guys spending the
dough on?
Has $15 million on hand. He's raised about twice that much I think. How do you figure he's burning money as fast as he gets it?
It costs money to set up offices with staff in all these states, but of all the major GOPers, he's spending the least (FT excepted, as I have no idea what he has raised/spent).
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert
the costs of which make Fred look pretty smart for not getting in so early. All of that "build an organization" stuff costs a LOT of money, and doesn't really produce much at this point.
As an entrepeneur, I can tell you that I like to keep costs low--it maintains my flexibility. McCain built a large organization early, and looked what happened to him.
Fred looks smarter and smarter every day.
Why focus on just the media and big-donor front-runners? How are the more conservative candidates, like Huckabee and Tancredo and Hunter doing? I heard that Brownback raised just $1.5 million, and Ron Paul raised $2.4, and has more cash on hand than McCain.
And in all seriousness, does anyone know what FT's numbers were? Have they not been released yet? I haven't seen them anywhere.
I'd think with McCain and Romney's relatively unimpressive hauls, FT could really be up there. At least he may have won June like Rudy won March last time.
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert