The Politico's Key Omission
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Kneel Before Zod | Let's You And Him Fight | Rooting For Injuries — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Everything that is written in this story is true . . . up to a point. It is certainly the case that it would take an electoral miracle of unprecedented proportions to vault Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama in terms of pledged delegates and the popular vote. And even an electoral miracle of unprecedented proportions may not be good enough. But that is not the aim of the Clinton campaign. The aim of the Clinton campaign is to get this contest to the point where neither Clinton nor Obama have the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination and then for chaos to reign.
The Clintons--whatever else one can say about them--are exceedingly good in a knife fight. Perhaps, as Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen write, that talent has been exaggerated for the purpose of propagating an interesting storyline. But it remains substantially true. And in the chaos of a brokered convention, he--or she--who is good at a knife fight may be able to create an advantage. At the very least, the knifer may be able to secure an excellent consolation prize.
Hillary Clinton is not guaranteed to win in Pennsylvania or for that matter, Indiana. But she has a good shot. And just as she stands no chance to win the magic 2,025, neither does Obama. For that reason alone, the Clintons won't give up. They never do when there is a chance for power still existing.
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | How did that line from Joseph Welch go again, Barry? — Comments (14) »
The Politico's Key Omission 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Oz, I like you, but I am sooo beyond ready for all talk of Condi doing anything but fading from incompetence into obscurity after the GWB administration is finished to STOP.
Please. For the good of the land -- and of that poor woman, who has spent the last couple years humiliatingly in over her head already, in a position that is not a heartbeat away from the top spot.
The GOP has much better VP candidates to chose from. Even if they wanted to play gender/race identity politics with the selection.
She's not a politician, and she never has been. She's never run for elected office in her life. To the best of my knowledge, she's never even given one indication that she was even interested.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
(a) I think Hillary's promise to Edwards would be a SCOTUS Justiceship or Court of Appeals appointment.
(b) It is very much possible to win the popular vote. If she wins PA by her current poll margin, she will pick up around 400K votes. If she wins WV by her current poll margin, and wins KY and IN by similar margins, she will pick up another 400K votes. That will give her a narrow lead, even by the most favorable count for Obama. Obama has NC, OR, and MT (probably not by huge margins), but she has PR and MT and OR are relatively small primaries. I don't know what both Dems in SD will do.
That leaves it close but do-able, and not requiring an inside straight to pull off.
You are totally right. (Although who knows what Hillary will promise Edwards.)
Hillary will almost certainly win PA by a margin similar to her win in OH. She will win in a landslide in WV (maybe two thirds). IN Dems are similar to PA and OH Dems; she should win there. KY is a border state, with a small black population, but a lot of southern blue collar Dems; this should also go for Hillary.
Obama will win OR and MT (yawn). He still will probably win NC (black voters will be 40%) but it doesn't look like a huge margin there, and his opponents will claim the black turnout gave him the win.
And then comes Puerto Rico, where Clinton should win because she has an edge in Hispanic voters. (But, I don't know her numbers with just Puerto Ricans, however.) I believe this primary is a winner take all state, too, although they may have changed it.
With all that happening, Obamas 700,000 plurality will certainly shrink. And then, Hillary will claim that MI and FL have to be included; just FL is enough to give her the edge (it is also more legitimate than MI, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot). Meanwhile, her private detectives have been digging up dirt on the superdelegates, she will attempt to bribe Edwards/his 100 delegates, and she will make the case that she won the traditional Democratic states and all of the big states, while Obama won GOP states (which he will not carry in the general) and is too weak as a general candidate - the "typical white person" and other gaffes, his friendship with Wright, his race, his funny name, and his inexperience and youth, will all cost him with swing voters and blue collar Dems in the general. All this should be enough for a narrow Hillary win.
It is amusing to me to see the mainstream liberal press, like the Politico, attempt to promote Obama's inevitability to the superdelegates. It is also pathetic, considering how little their spin matches up to the efforts of the Clinton machine.
I hope McCain is ready for the big "knife fight" with Hillary.
1. Pass Obama in the popular vote.
2. Win most of the remaining primaries (including big wins in key states like PA) in order to claim momentum.
3. Drive down Obama's poll numbers against McCain to make the case that she is the stronger candidate to the Super-ds.
4. Continue to dredge up troubling info about Obama that casts further doubt on his general election viability.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/03/the_importance_of_north...
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
I have been watching NC since the Wright flap. And Obama is definitely losing ground.
If John Edwards is going to endorse someone, he will do it before this primary, IMO. And I think whoever gets the endorsement will get the win.
So, this sets up Edwards as quite the power broker. In the end, it will all come down to which one gives him a better deal. Or which one has more dirt.
After freaking out over the Richardson endorsement of Obama, I did some more reading and now don't think it was that big. IIRC, STL con felt like Richardson was one of the Brokaw 50. My guess is he is correct and Obama just begged for him to go ahead and endorse now so he could get Wright out of the news cycle.
This is still very interesting. I'm not sure at this point how I want to see it all end. :>)
would be easier to beat, but because he is just too young and ignorant.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
The super delegates are the only constituency that matters at this point in the race. Hillary's strategy is simply to make Obama unelectable and cuase a movement of the superdelegates toward her.
But IMO the politico is right, the probability of this being successful is minimal. With MI and FL off the table, any possible rational for Hillary's nomination is closed to her. She will be behind in the popular vote and delegate count. All the movement of the superdelegates is toward Obama.
Richardson may have been the coup de grace.
So correct. For reporters wanting to inject some reality into the Presidential narrative these two Political reporters failed it's quite poor to ignore that glaring fact.
Disclaimer: I used to work for Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.
I think that's what the Richardson endorsement was all about. It was a pre-emptive strike. I'm not sure how much effect, in the end, it will have. Especially considering how Obama is foundering right now, Hillary's super delegates (like Tennessee's Phil Bredesen) can have as much or more pull than Richardson. Neither will head into Denver with the 2025 delegates needed - in fact, they will be pretty close to each other in delegate count, with Obama leading by what promises to be an ever-slimming margin. Interesting times for the political junkie - though I do worry for the people of Denver if the nutcases do riot. I want to see political brawling on the floor - not physical violence in the streets.
Could Obama or Hillary get close enough for Edwards to push them over the edge?
Would Edwards trade the VP slot with Hillary for his delegates?
If Hillary does backstab her way to the nomination especially with the help of a white man, is McCain's VP play then to woo Condi Rice onto the ticket so as to give disenfranchised minorities a place to end up when the Dems cast them off?