The Wednesday After Super Tuesday
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Democrats | Republicans | Super Tuesday — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
So, a lot went on yesterday, no?
On the Republican side, I think it is clear that McCain will be the nominee. His night wasn't as overwhelmingly good as some thought it might be, but it was good enough to set him forth on the trajectory towards the nomination. Yes, there is an outside chance that we might have a brokered Republican convention, but it is way outside when it comes to chances and I don't think that a brokered convention will, in fact, take place. McCain has momentum, Romney is done--even his most ardent supporter appears to be conceding just that--and Huckabee's need and ability to play spoiler will likely dissipate once Romney formally gets out. The strange thing for Romney is that he won more states than Huckabee and has more delegates, but is in some ways even less motivated to stay on besides reasons of pure vanity. The Romney campaign says that it is going ahead and one takes them at their word, but the question remains; "Go ahead to what?"
On the Democratic side, well, things are quite bizarre. Hillary Clinton won some choice states last night--none being more choice than California--but she is thinking of shaking up her campaign, if this story is to be believed. She raised only $13 million in January to Barack Obama's $32 million, which means that she is going to encounter a money crunch going ahead. Last night, I heard that there was an offer from the Clinton campaign to debate Obama every week. Now, of course, we certainly don't need any more debates, but that doesn't matter to the Clintons because right now, what they need is free media. Obama would be a fool to agree to this; the Democrats have already had something close to 20 debates. What more is there to discuss? And why give Hillary Clinton any oxygen whatsoever, especially when, coming out of Super Tuesday, Obama may now have a delegate lead?
I didn't think it possible, but I now believe it is at least somewhat likely that we will be heading into a brokered convention for the Democrats. The bloodletting should be . . . um . . . interesting to watch, especially when it comes to the question of whether or not to seat delegations from Florida and/or Michigan. Recall that the two states were punished by the Democratic National Committee for moving up their primaries and stripped of their delegates. Hillary Clinton is pushing for those delegations to be seated and to have a vote at the convention--which would favor her since she won both Florida and Michigan. The Obama people would be apoplectic at the prospect, as would the DNC. The Clinton people will argue that it is democracy in action--despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to have campaigned in both states.
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | Selected, Not Elected — Comments (48) »
The Wednesday After Super Tuesday 11 Comments (0 topical, 11 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
That is a great link in terms of information (infinitely more helpful and relevant than the county-by-county figures elsewhere).
Looking through that list, unless I missed any, Romney took only three districts. They are:
District 21: rural Central Valley, eastern Fresno County (Romney 36.1 % vs. McCain 35.7%)
District 49: northern San Diego County, southwestern Riverside County (Romney 38.8% vs. McCain 37.7%)
District 52: Duncan Hunter's district, eastern San Diego County (Romney 40.3% vs. McCain 37.4%)
In each of these districts, I'd say immigration was probably the deciding factor that put Romney ahead.
LA has more Mexican nationals in it than all but one Mexican city.
If Republicans there aren't voting illegal immigration first, then illegal immigration isn't a key issue this cycle, period.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I'd bet that a sizable percentage of voters in the Republican primary in Los Angeles County (note: I'm talking JUST L.A. County, not Orange or San Diego counties) were themselves Hispanic. Certainly enough to carry McCain a few percentage points over Romney.
Yes, a majority of Latinos in the county are Democrats. But keep in mind there are many, many second, third-, and fourth-generation Hispanics there as well, some Republican, and L.A. County is now so diverse (and so heavily Democratic) that the GOP primary there has got to be diverse as well (sorry, don't have percentages for you at all; feel free to show otherwise). Certainly there are Republicans in places like the outer San Fernando Valley, Valencia, and Lakewood who might have immigration as a top issue, but not enough to take out McCain there.
But you're right that Romney not winning a single Orange County district is telling, and that immigration isn't as key as some assumed.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
If Hillary goes to the convention and argues about why the rules should be changed after the fact when she would be the clear (and only) beneficiary.... well, you just can't buy that kind of bad publicity.
You can't afford the price of free corn.
Given how the delegates are shaking out, it's definitely looking like it'll be a battle for the superdelegates. And we Democrats are now realizing what a stupid concept superdelegates are (primaries have been over and done so quickly the last few elections, no one's really given much thought to them).
Needless to say, I think you're right on the bad pub issue. It could get really dicey if Clonton decides to go scorched-earth and really fight for those delegates to be seated. Hopefully, it won't get to that point.
Speaking of bad publicity, I kind of doubt that the superdelegates would support someone who loses the regular delegate count. I don't think this "elite" would want to contradict the popular will and hand the vote to the other candidate.
I remember hearing the talking heads discuss the matter of whether the delegates would be seated at the convention if the nomination was not yet resolved, and they seemed highly skeptical of that happening based on their "sources inside the DNC".
The point they raised was that the primaries held were non-binding due to the fact that they were moved ahead of the Super Tuesday contests but that the DNC might be open to an alternative method of selecting the delegates.
Could FL and MI hold new primaries now that the race is still open? DNC would probably consider the results of those primaries binding. It would probably be too expensive an operation, though?
Just a thought.
I would love to see the speeches from all three candidates...
Looks like it would be really interesting.
Isn't it rather useless to worry about California and how poorly Mitt did. I see no way for any Republican to win on the left coast. It doesn't help that rhino Arnold is at the helm. When California implodes under it's own indebtedness, republicans will take another hit thanks to Arnold.
"To believe in nothing is to believe in everything, to believe in everything is to believe in nothing."
The CA popular vote might not look great for Romney, but the governor's district count is downright miserable. Looks like he only took two or three, to McCain's ~50. *Whistle...*
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/rcd/all.htm
"I love liberty, I hate equality." --John Randolph