The Wednesday After Super Tuesday
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in 2008 | Democrats | Republicans | Super Tuesday — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
So, a lot went on yesterday, no?
On the Republican side, I think it is clear that McCain will be the nominee. His night wasn't as overwhelmingly good as some thought it might be, but it was good enough to set him forth on the trajectory towards the nomination. Yes, there is an outside chance that we might have a brokered Republican convention, but it is way outside when it comes to chances and I don't think that a brokered convention will, in fact, take place. McCain has momentum, Romney is done--even his most ardent supporter appears to be conceding just that--and Huckabee's need and ability to play spoiler will likely dissipate once Romney formally gets out. The strange thing for Romney is that he won more states than Huckabee and has more delegates, but is in some ways even less motivated to stay on besides reasons of pure vanity. The Romney campaign says that it is going ahead and one takes them at their word, but the question remains; "Go ahead to what?"
On the Democratic side, well, things are quite bizarre. Hillary Clinton won some choice states last night--none being more choice than California--but she is thinking of shaking up her campaign, if this story is to be believed. She raised only $13 million in January to Barack Obama's $32 million, which means that she is going to encounter a money crunch going ahead. Last night, I heard that there was an offer from the Clinton campaign to debate Obama every week. Now, of course, we certainly don't need any more debates, but that doesn't matter to the Clintons because right now, what they need is free media. Obama would be a fool to agree to this; the Democrats have already had something close to 20 debates. What more is there to discuss? And why give Hillary Clinton any oxygen whatsoever, especially when, coming out of Super Tuesday, Obama may now have a delegate lead?
I didn't think it possible, but I now believe it is at least somewhat likely that we will be heading into a brokered convention for the Democrats. The bloodletting should be . . . um . . . interesting to watch, especially when it comes to the question of whether or not to seat delegations from Florida and/or Michigan. Recall that the two states were punished by the Democratic National Committee for moving up their primaries and stripped of their delegates. Hillary Clinton is pushing for those delegations to be seated and to have a vote at the convention--which would favor her since she won both Florida and Michigan. The Obama people would be apoplectic at the prospect, as would the DNC. The Clinton people will argue that it is democracy in action--despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was the only candidate to have campaigned in both states.