Tree sitting with John McCain and Mike Huckabee
The hip, new Republican alliance.
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 | Iowa | John McCain | Mike Huckabee | New Hampshire — Comments (53) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Mitt Romney's strategy has been to win big in Iowa and New Hampshire then, his team imagines, watch the dominoes fall. He has spent a fortune and a half in each State, in both money and in time. What if Mike Huckabee wins Iowa then John McCain takes New Hampshire, both results looking more and more likely? Romney would probably become a footnote, then for the frontrunners, it would be one opponent down, on to the next.
Romney's hometown paper, the Boston Globe, ran a story on Christmas by their Michael Levenson about the "unusual" alliance between Huckabee and McCain designed to stop Romney.
They need each other, the reasoning goes:
McCain needs Huckabee to beat Romney in Iowa's Republican caucuses on Jan. 3, so that Romney is weakened for the New Hampshire primary five days later. And Huckabee needs McCain to draw votes from Romney in Iowa.
In this case, methinks "need" is not the proper verb, but they each could make the other's life easier. Whether a Romney loss in Iowa would weaken him in any substantive way in New Hampshire is arguable, but anything short of a big win by Romney would give the impression that all the cash he spent could not gift the Romney campaign with the inevitability it sought. Huckabee, polls indicate, does not need anyone to draw votes from Romney in Iowa, but Iowa polls are not the most reliable.
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What is this alliance? Well, according to the article, it consists of complimenting each other while Romney loads mailboxes with negativity. This alliance is called "one of the stranger story lines to emerge in the Republican race" because McCain evidently hates evangelicals, according to the piece, and Huckabee portrays himself as one. But if the alliance is having an effect, it is having the one desired by the Huckabee and the McCain camps.
However, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden has a spin:
"Their strategies are emblematic of their fundamental weaknesses, while ours points to our strength of message and resources across the board."
The resources cannot be denied, and they call for large wins in both early States, but the message? To a large extent, for the past several weeks, Romney's message in Iowa is a negative, anti-Huckabee one. Huckabee has little money.
Now, I have always held that because of the compressed and truncated reality and feel of this year's nominating process, Iowa and New Hampshire are not as important as they perhaps had been historically, although there will be psychological "bragging rights." And to Mitt Romney, because of the way he targeted and focused his campaign, these two contests are important. To the rest, a star could be born.
As a Reagan conservative with libertarian leanings, I've found myself hoping beyond hope for Fred Thompson to appear out of nowhere and do something; and we can never count Rudy out unless he fails in Florida on January 29 and falls victim to the tsunami of February 5. But one wonders if this is all leading to a McCain-Huckabee ticket.
Hold your enthusiasm for this for just a second. McCain-Huckabee could knock of a Dem ticket headed by Hillary if, when push comes to shove, enough people are frightened enough by the prospects of at least another four years but this time with the nasty one in charge.
"Johnny and Mike are sittin' in a tree."
Let's see how this one plays out.
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Tree sitting with John McCain and Mike Huckabee 53 Comments (0 topical, 53 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...but McCain/Huckabee is the only ticket that scares a guy like me.
Though I suppose that would be the nightmare scenario for those who think illegal immigration is a top issue.
As a Reagan conservative with libertarian leanings
I have also considered myself the same, which is why I think that having Huckabee on the ticket anywhere will be a desarster. He is the oposite of a libertarian or a conservative, he is in fact a Liberal. So putting two Liberals on the ticket is a really bad idea. All the true conservatives will walk away. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney are the only two who are actually running as Conservatives. Granted, Huckabee is running as a social Conservative, but liberal on everything else (including class warefare). Frankly, I think Huckabee has shot any chance he had as a VP.
But there is another interesting point to your blog. Romney is the only candidate fight for both New Hampshire and Iowa. No other candidate is even close.
Romney should probably start lumping these two together and pointing out what RINO's they are.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
Hugh's written several Mitt's Rising posts, which I've never agreed with. When I read that the Manchester Union Leader ridiculed Gov. Romney this morning, I couldn't resist writing a post called "Romney's Sinking.
With ARTLA's ad running statewide in Iowa about Romney's differing statements on the life issue through the caucuses, coupled with McCain's resurgence in NH, it's difficult to picture a scenario where Romney could recover from that.
Huckabee's wife's maiden name was McCain, so McCain-Huckabee does seem to have some precedent...
But not among their voters. Most of the Huckabee supporters I know personally (and about half of those on Redstate) name McCain as their #2 choice, or even #1 if he would just get his momentum back.
Personally, McCain/Huckabee is my dream ticket, and not only because it would beat Clinton. Two strong social conservatives who understand the terrorist threat, and the budget hawk has the veto pen.
For some its a dream ticket, for real conservatives, its our worst nightmare.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
McCain guy, but Huckabee is last on my list. I wouldn't mind him as VP though, but he wouldn't even be my top choice there.
was with the amount of enthusiasm if would generate. I think of Bob Dole in '96 and wonder what we could have done to Clinton (Bill) if, say, Phil Gramm had won the nomination and excited the fiscons. (That was an awful year, '96, with potential nominees like Dole, Pete Wilson, Lamar Alexander, Arlen Specter, and Dick Lugar. The most exciting candidate was Bob Dornan, and he's nuts.)
I don't always agree with McCain but at least he'll fight and win this war. I'm not of fan of his immigration stance or Mccain-Feingold (that is far down my list of issues). I do like he is tough againt terrorist, is good on budget issues and i agree with his social stands for the most part.
Go Dawgs, Sic em' Woof Woof
Interesting hypothesis, but if it comes to play out it will much more likely be a Huckabee/McCain ticket rather than the other way around.
BSR
McCain would never accept the VP, he is too powerfull as a senator.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
Huck has shot up within weeks and is getting a pass fromt the MSM (aside from pieces where they worry about his religiosity . . . which only solidifies Huck's Iowa/SC evangelical base).
Everyone should be thanking ROmney for actually bringing to light Huck's worrisome record before he became the nominee by luck/timing and then faced a REAL vetting once the MSM unleashes on him.
McCain's been hiding in the woodwork for months and all the media still feel sorry for the "fallen frontrunner" . . . it's time for a reminding of just why conservatives don't like McCain.
It's called politics.
I have yet to meet the politician who doesn't want to win. They all spin (positively for themselves and negatively toward others).
If Romney survives this "two front assault" and wins Iowa and NH then he will have earned the nomination.
Jeff Fuller
http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/
See my disclaimer of Romney Support at my blogsite line above (essentially I'm an unpaid grassroots supporter/blogger).
John McCain, or Mitt Romney that counts, Jeff; rather, it's those who cast votes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney has spent a lot of time, effort, and money in those States, and he's unleashing the dogs on Huckabee in Iowa.
We won't know who has won either State until the results are in. Two possible scenarios are the Romney roll to the nomination will begin or Romney will be knocked out of the race. I doubt that either will be the case, though if Huckabee does not win Iowa, he can stick around for SC if he wants, but it probably won't matter.
But any of those three candidates is going to need strong and plentiful support outside those two little States.
I don't want either of these men leading our party. Huckabee is a liberal - I don't need to get into that, it's been done ad nauseum around here....and McCain, well, he's stabbed conservatives in the back way too many times for me to support him for president, as well as the de facto head of the conservative movement. Does anybody still remember McCain-Feingold and McCain-Kennedy Immigration reform? Are these bills disqualifiers to anyone else but me?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
But when I voted for Bush, these where not issues. Besides, it was between McCain and Bush, so I picked the less liberal. (actually, Bush ran as a Conservative), Didn't know what Passionate conservative meant until he got into office. And the choice between Bush and Kerry was obvious.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
I do not buy that. Bush ran very proudly on a liberal immigration platform. That is how he won unprecedented Hispanic support in 2004. It was no secret and anyone taken by surprise by Bush’s immigration policy was not paying attention when he ran.
In 2005 Bush and McCain tried to pass an even more liberal immigration bill. There was little outrage and the issue died with the bill.
In 2007 they tried to pass a less liberal bill. Talk radio decided to drum up outrage and suddenly immigration was a matter of the utmost importance. I am curious: what changed between 2005 and 2007, aside from Rush and Levin telling declaring the issue to be more important now than it was then?
-Ben
You thought the number was trending down in 2005?
Or is it that 15 million was alright, but 18 million is unacceptable?
I don't buy that either. Nothing has changed except the urgency of the rhetoric of certain talk radio goons.
-Ben
Are you in a position to actually see if the problem is getting worse or not? I admit, I "hoped" GWB would consider the base when proposing immigration legislation when I voted for him. He did not. My biggest issue then was the GWOT. And that influenced my vote more than anything. From where I sit, the illegal immigration problem has gotten much worse since 2004.
especially the large demonstrations by illegal immigrants demanding not only full rights but also the right to retake territory they lost in the Mexican war, the right to retain their status as a separate nation within the US, etc, that woke up Americans (not just "talk radio goons" who were responding to pressure from their audience) to the issue.
Sorry to be OT.
After I took a look at Kerry and Gore, nothing else mattered. Must have missed Bushes open gate policy.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
....I am not a huge Bush fan, although I did vote for him twice. I supported Steve Forbes in 2000 - but Bush had the nomination wrapped up after fighting off a slight challenge from McCain.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I just hope I don't have to choose between two liberal republicans :o(
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
The level of antipathy for Mitt Romney by some never ceases to amaze me. Here we have Mark basically saying, "wouldn't it be exciting if someone who hates the Republican base almost as much as he hates free speech and a murderer-paroling socialist teamed up to beat Romney?"
Amazing.
and 5555555555555555555
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
--the Huck-haters have been in full voice lately (he's a tax-raising, murderer-pardoning, illegal-alien friend)
--the Romney-haters, well, you notice them yourself (Mormon, flip-flopper, hair is too pretty)
--the Fred-haters are always soiling on our Fred-love blogs (lazy, no real experience, not as cool as Chuck Norris)
--the McCain-haters abound (G14, McCain Feingold, urinating on the base, soft on borders)
--the Rudy-haters caused ugly rifts here in RedState paradise when many said they'd sit on their hands if Rudy was the nominee (RINO, very ugly personal warts)
So, don't feel too out of sorts. Full disclosure, I love Fred, hate McCain, don't care for Huck.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
I don't know about Fred Haters. You have to have shot for someone to come after you. I don't think Fred ever had a realistic shot at this thing.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
I take what I post here on the front page at RedState.com seriously. I reported on the Romney-McCain alliance and the impact it could have. I did not post an opinion on the matter.
You are being disruptive. You have been warned.
You have got to be kidding. The McCain and Romney campaigns could not despise each other more, if reports are to be believed. If you reported on a Romney-McCain alliance, then I suspect you were the only one reporting anything of that nature.
Now that I think about it, I suspect that you perhaps simply meant to say that you were "reporting" on the Huckabee-McCain "alliance."
You didn't post an opinion, but there did appear to be an apparent and excited zeal in your...reporting.
My second paragraph reads:
Romney's hometown paper, the Boston Globe, ran a story on Christmas by their Michael Levenson about the "unusual" alliance between Huckabee and McCain designed to stop Romney.
Note the link. Click on it. It will take you to the Boston Globe story about a McCain-Huckabee alliance.
Like I told you, I take what I post on this front page very seriously. I do not play little games. And it is disruptive when people try to distract from the post by changing the subject to my motives.
Now simmer down and actually read the post for what it is, a story about primary election dynamics.
there was a good deal of editorializing, i.e., injecting personal interpretations into your otherwise factual account, such as the following:
...Romney would probably become a footnote...
...anything short of a big win by Romney would give the impression that all the cash he spent could not gift the Romney campaign with the inevitability it sought.
...Romney spokesman Kevin Madden has a spin...
And as for Romney's message in Iowa being a negative, anti-Huckabee one, let's not forget who started the negative tone regarding Romney's Mormon religion. They can put out all the disclaimers they want, but it was Huckabee and McCain (through his mother on the tube) who first dirtied the campaign.
Finally, I'm surprised that you would give the credence that you do to the Boston Globe. They have never been a fan of Mitt Romney (or any Republican for that matter).
Thank you for doing that for me as I had other business to attend to.
What Mark describes as "negative, anti-Huckabee" is merely a fair representation of Mike Huckabee's unfortunate record as governor of Arkansas.
Kilmer here is almost as sensitive to criticism as Mike Huckabee.
You were not criticizing me; rather, you were attacking. You accused me of inventing an alliance then of running with something first reported in the Boston Globe.
These accusations were an attempt to distract from the story.
Your behavior has been disruptive.
G'bye.
...but you're still obviously not very good if you were actually attempting to do an even-handed story (which, I am under no impression that you were.)
And just a little FYI: summarizing stories about what real reporters have done is not called "reporting," unless you consider book reports to be "reporting." Break some news or give a first-hand account or observation that adds to what is not already known or contradicts what others are saying (with facts) and then you can call it "reporting."
I understand that you are quite sensitive to being called out, however. That's something that you and Mike Huckabee seem to have in common. Next thing you know you'll be calling me a "tattle tale." LOL
His ethics, pardons, fiscal, etc. record is too messy. If he helps McCain win the nomination, McCain can say thank you and pick whomever he wants. Pawlenty or Fred would add way more to a McCain ticket. Rudy and Romney also would look elsewhere.
The main point of the blog, that Romney runs the risk of collapsing as a result of cooperation between McCain and Huckabee, is on target.
Until candidates start withdrawing, we're in a small plurality game. Because Romney might be a lot of folks' third choice, he isn't getting the breakout he desperately needs.
If, after spending $10 million plus, Romney does not win both Iowa and New Hampshire, he looks like a loser.
This is where McCain, Huckabee, and Rudy all want him.
The irony in all this is that Giuliani is trying the "late game" strategy that almost worked for Reagan in 1976. But instead of looking to the South as Reagan did, Giuliani is looking for the blue parts of red state Florida to ignite a blue state tsunami on Feb 5th.
The Republican primary is becoming an Iranian Firing Squad. All the Republican candidates please create a full circle around Mitt and fire!!!
First unintended casualty = Rudy
Second unintended casualty = Fred
Next unintended casualty = ????
A casualty is not the same as a kill. However, Rudy and Fred have been damaged by focusing on a strategy to defeat Mitt just like Huck and McCain are dong now. It will backfire for McCain and Huck. Watch.
any particular candidate; rather, he did not campaign in the manner required to attract voters in these early States. He took his time when the race often requires urgency.
For Rudy, he had nowhere to go but down. He is about where I thought he should have been all along, and his strategy is a State here-and-there before Florida on the 29th of January the do well in Florida and on February 5.
McCain and Huckabee are doing what they have to do to win, which includes taking on the longtime front runner who is attacking them daily. It goes both ways, and that's politics.
12/21 Rasmussen: Giuliani 16, Huckabee 19, Thompson 11, Romney 15, McCain 15.
If any one of these guys is damaged, then they all are.
Also I woul still say Rudy is in top tier so I wouldn't pu thim down as a causality. Thompson has efectively been knocked down to the second tier so you could probably call him a casuality. Of course in politics there are ressurections as John McCain may show us.
Huckabee is going down, so I don't know why McCain would form any sort of alliance with him. Romney has hit some sort of ceiling, so I don't see where a "hand up" from Huckabee will help McCain, and I don't see why McCain would do anything to help Huckabee, a man who is about to free-fall. McCain has the potential for upward movement in both Iowa and New Hampshire, without the help of other candidates. Fred Thompson is McCain's most direct opponent, and Fred hasn't moved much.
Former Senator Fred Thompson is the only real conservative in the race for the Republican nomination, and the only candidate who can unite all three pillars of the Republican Party, namely, fiscal conservatives; national security and defense conservatives; and religious conservatives. The Republican party, given that the nation is divided, cannot afford to alienate any of these pillars, or they will lose in the general election, as a sufficient number of the alienated pillar’s constituents will simply not cast a vote for president when they vote. This is not an attempt to intimidate Republican voters, but merely a recognition that there are certain conservative voters who simply will not violate their own principles and vote for someone they have fundamental disagreements with, or do not trust. For example, Governor Romney, has not provided a satisfactory answer in the minds of many religious conservatives in his efforts to explain the change from pro-choice to pro-life. They want to know the motivation, and need to be convinced that it was not political. This matter remains unresolved, and thus alienates a proportion of religious conservatives who would otherwise support him as the party’s nominee - regardless of his own religious persuasion. Mayor Guiliani also has a similar problem with religious conservatives, given his personal position on abortion; and promising to appoint strict constructionist judges will not vitiate the conflict with pro-life constituents. Religious conservatives will not vote for a pro-choice Republican nominee - even if it means electing Senator Clinton president. They will not violate a moral conviction. They will simply adopt the attitude - God’s will be done, and maintain their conviction. Governor Huckabee alienates fiscal conservatives as a result of his tax and spend policies during his tenure in Arkansas. Senator McCain, terminally severed his relationship with a proportion of national security conservatives through his aggressive support of the proposed comprehensive immigration agreement, which failed as a result of a citizens’ uprising against this legislation; his opposition to the tax cut policy of the Bush Administration; and his opposition to aggressive interrogation techniques on high value captured terrorists.
Senator Thompson has none of the foregoing problems. He is strong on defense of the nation during a time of war, and has already committed to a substantial increase in the size of our military to fight the enemy threatening our survival; will seal the border, and reverse illegal immigration through attrition; will maintain the current tax policy, and reduce taxes by instituting his proposed voluntary flat tax system with only two rates, one at 10% with no deductions; and the other 25% maximum with current deductions maintained. He will also lower the corporate tax rate to ensure US Corporations are operating at the same tax rates as foreign corporations. Moreover, Mr. Thompson is the only candidate to assemble a plan to address the impending social security system crisis - the “third rail” of American politics. The Senator is acceptable to religious conservatives as well, given his strong and long-standing pro-life position, which explains why he was endorsed by the National Right to Life organization, and many similar state organizations. As to the “fire in the belly” complaint , which is preferable, “Fire in the belly;” or the following leadership characteristics? Personal integrity; moral conviction; courage; perseverance; boldness; humility; analytical intelligence; calm and deliberate; decisiveness; understands historical context and timing; commitment; and vision. In short, the Senator will show more than adequate “fire in the belly” when he demonstrates to those attempting to destroy our beloved nation a backbone of iron and the fury of an adversary who will unleash a conflagration, if necessary, to preserve our sacred liberty. One must guard against being deceived by cliché terms such as “fire in the belly,” in the middle of a media driven political campaign, when there are substantially more important, and higher priority characteristics needed in the President of the United States, and leader of the free world.
For Republicans to win the White House, they must be united and have a large voter turnout among all three of their voting pillars, that is fiscal conservatives; national security conservatives; and religious conservatives. Senator Thompson, is the only candidate not alienating any of these voting pillars, and thus can galvanize their support. Accordingly, he is the best hope for Republicans in the 2008 national election. Indeed Senator Thompson can win the general election, and rest assured the other party knows it for the same reasons articulated herein; to wit: he unites the Republican constituencies and assures a large conservative voter turnout in the 2008 election.

I've frankly never understood why Huckabee was playing so nicely with McCain and Giuliani, but campaigning so aggressively against Romney. Given that he is running in large part as the real social conservative, I would expect him to take potshots at his more liberal opponents in order to position himself as their moral alternative. Instead, he's not only left them alone, but often gone out of his way to speak well of both McCain and Giuliani.
Some of this can be chalked up to politics. Huckabee's focus is still primarily on Iowa, where McCain and Romney have very little presence. But even among Iowa voters, aggressively criticizing Giuliani's lack of "family values" credentials in a national debate could prove rewarding for him.
It honestly seems as if he is still hedging his bets at this point in the game. Romney has alienated himself from McCain and Giuliani with his slash-and-burn style of politicking. If either of them are the nominee, there is no way that Romney ends up on the VP ticket. Huckabee, on the other hand, has been playing very nice with everybody but Romney. If we nominate Giuliani or McCain, neither the darling of evangelicals and other social conservatives, Huckabee has positioned himself to be the perfect ticket-balancing running mate.