We might keep hearing about federalism and "Warshington" a while longer than many expected
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Here's where I see this race today: it's still Rudy v. Romney with Rudy starting to exert a key advantage Ramesh Ponnuru wrote about a while back: Rudy has most of the rightwing pundits on his side. When Romney talks about crime, George Will and Deroy Murdock can take him on. Romney, however, seems to have more grassroots passion.
But, I think we might just see a turn in the cycle ahead. Romney and Huckabee are battling it out in Iowa while Romney and Rudy are battling it out in New Hampshire and everywhere else. That provides opportunities to Fred in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire.
I think we're already seeing that shape up. Fred has reached that interesting point where none of the other campaigns take him seriously, yet he's starting to make inroads in Iowa against Huckabee, who can't afford to spend too much time fighting off Fred when he's trying to unseat Romney.
In New Hampshire, McCain, long ago written off, is seizing the Rudy v. Romney battle to make some inroads with independents, most of whom will still vote Democrat in 2008, and restore some ground lost with Republicans who just might get tired of the Rudy v. Romney fight, see e.g. Gephardt v. Dean in 2004 in Iowa.
There's not much insight in this post, admittedly, but I think it's worth pointing out again that this race is still wide open. If Fred and John play their cards right, they just might restore serious viability to their campaigns. And then, on the bright side, we just might have to spend several more months hearing Fred talk about federalism and John talk about "Warshington."
Of course, at what point do Fred and John hurt each other?
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We might keep hearing about federalism and "Warshington" a while longer than many expected 11 Comments (0 topical, 11 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I still see Fred @ #2 nationally, with very cogent & substantive policy proposals. I see him doing well in interviews, not falling asleep as some say he does. I see the national pundits unhappy because Thompson did not get their blessing nor has he tried to obsequiously buddy up to them to curry favor. I don't know what some people want - does he need to rip the spine out of an opponent & then do handsprings? Mitt, Rudy, & Huck - I'm not seeing more fire from them than from Fred, & Fred's policy & issue base is at least as strong. Ignoring him, as many in the MSM & republican elite are doing - or minimizing him certainly hasn't been productive & is not good for us as a whole. We have seen how well the "electable" candidates Kerry & Dole have done in the past. You may not think Fred is the best candidate, however if your best candidate is not what you consider the most electable, then there is a disconnect there as long as the candidate can speak...
In NH Giuliani has performed with fire in his belly. I watched several of his events and have to say they were above my expectations. Mitt also seems energized and probably hopes the Mass. transients will help. Overall, at this point it appears a Mitt-Rudy race to lose, but I never count John out until votes are counted.
Besides that, in the words of Yukon Cornelius; "Nothing".
If the Hawkeyes go for Huck, it may provide some lift going South. Unless one of the others captures 1st, Iowa becomes meaningless (sorry).
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report
I live in the Upstate, near Greenville. What hasn't been widely reported, like Florida, there are a lot of Northeastern transplants in SC, particularly in Greenville and around Charleston. Most are Republican, of course. (Why would a Democrat move to one of the reddest statest in the union?) Where I live, there are Romney and Ron Paul signs everywhere. No Thompson, Huckabee or McCain. What's interesting, though, there is no Giuliani presence either, but the mayor is either tied or within the margain of error behind Romney.
I'm not a pollster, in any sense of the word, but in my talking to people, everyday South Carolinians are liking Giuliani. Romney has the lead in SC, in my opinion, solely on the amount of money he has spent here. But, in talking to people - again, not a pollster - issues like abortion and gun control aren't the deciding factors like social conservative pundits believe (or want) them to be. South Carolina is basically middle class (lower to upper) and the people I've talked to want to know if their taxes will stay low, if their way of life will be physically protected against terrorism and philosophically against liberal courts.
While most people in SC are (probably) pro-life (it is a very red state after all), and - again, just my opinion - would gladly see Roe overturned, there is no sense of activism, or staying home if the candidate isn't down-the-line pro-life.
Ron Paul is spending lots of money in SC too and actually raised the money rather than donated itto himself like Romney.
He will do more to ensure that taxes are not raised since he is the only candidate proposing any serious cuts in spending. In addition he is someone social conservatives will like since he wants to make abortion a state issue again.
The only true conservative... Ron Paul 2008
As I went to ban you, I saw that your account has been active over our 6 month no-Paul-pimping limit.
Within general Posting Rules guidelines, of course. Those wishing to emulate him should keep that in mind.
Think of it as a level thing, if that helps. 1st level Ronulans don't get to cast Talk About Ron Paul! Ron Paul! Ron Paul! here; you need to be at least 3rd. Hey, we're the GMs and you're not; besides, a bunch of people got their levels retconned when we went from RS 2.0 to 2.5, so we're not being completely capricious.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
If Thompson eats into Huckabees support in Iowa that leaves Romney with a win.
And if McCain eats up the independent support in NH that Rudy needs that leaves Romney with another win...
They could be a ticket.