What Does Bhutto's Death Mean?
Experts speculate as we are reminded how dangerous things are
By Ericka Andersen Posted in 2008 — Comments (58) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
She was a couragous supporter of democracy and now the hope she represented for Pakistan has been crushed by assassination. Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto died this morning from gunshot wounds and now the world waits and wonders what this means for the country's unstable government and their relationships with terrorist groups, surrounding countries and the United States.
Read on.
Bhutto recently met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Karzai's government replaced a Taliban rule, which "had been created and sustained for many years by the Inter-Service Intelligence agency, the central Pakistani intelligence agency," according to an article in Human Events. "ISI is a government-within-a-government and not entirely controlled by the Musharraf government."
Pakistani elections approached next month but experts speculate that these will be postponed, leaving the country in continued disarray and instability.
I checked in on the other side of the world to see how they were reporting the incident. An analyst at the Jerusalem Post says this:
Ultimately the main question is what will happen in Pakistan after the country comes to term with the death of Bhutto, a best case scenario would unfold if the political leaders and the military deal with the threat of radical Islam. A worse case scenario is continued disagreements between Pakistan's leaders allowing radical Islam to continue its march towards the center.
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a severe, and potentially crippling, blow to international hopes that Pakistan might emerge into a state of stability
What does this mean for--everyone?
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What Does Bhutto's Death Mean? 58 Comments (0 topical, 58 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Pakistan is divided between very violent Islamists and fuzzy thinking liberals who believe that an election will make everything better.
In the middle stands Mushareff. Maybe not the best, but for now, and a long time to come, the ONLY alternative.
And these people have nuclear weapons.
or the fuzzy thinking liberals?
Bhutto and her supporters were/are not realistic. Fuzzy thinking liberals is all I can come up with.
I agree. And I get very upset with people who envision turning Pakistan into a democracy overnight. It's going to be a long, long time before the people of Pakistan can support a democracy. Many prefer beating the living daylights out of cars and buses. Violence is not about to give way, peacefully, to the ballot. If they don't like their leaders, they kill them.
...as the Armed Forces of the United States were undertaking the liberation of Afghanistan from underneath the Taliban's bootheel, as the liberation forces prepared their assault on the city of Kandahar, an urgent request was received from the Pakistani Government to temporarily stand down American anti aircraft defenses around the city.
During the stand down, three Star Lifters carrying Pakistani Military personnel left from Kandahar Airport.
What do you think we are dealing with here? This swamp is far deeper and more convoluted than any of us can imagine.
for Musharraf to step it up regarding leadership. Bhutto was the key to organizing a government not affiliated with the military nor the extremists. Musharraf needs to get out there and take control of his government and country because this is all going to fall on him and Bhutto's supporters are going after his head.
Before you get to heaven, you must go through hell, which in my case is the People's Republic of Massachusetts.
Bhutto and Musharraf come from the same social class, there is no logical reason to expect that a Bhutto government would be substantially different from a Musharraf government beyond being weaker and more corrupt.
A Pakistani president without strong military ties ends up on a rope or in exile. Don't take my word for it. Check the list of Pakistani presidents.
The ruling elite in Pakistan have always ruled by playing off the very strict tribal, or should I say Taliban style, Islamic culture with a much more lax variety found in urban Pakistan. This game became much more dangerous in the aftermath of the Afghan war and the rule Zia ul Haq who showed distinct favoritism to the more strict version. Now those folks are armed and dangerous. Some accommodation is going to have to be made with them. If Musharraf could not crush them there was no reason to suppose Bhutto would even try.
Again, Bhutto's death is a tragedy but her death means little to the direction Pakistan must go.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Most likely Bhutto's supporters will point the finger at Musharaff for this, and most likely the Pakistani Intel service had involvement in this. Look for Musharaff to get overthrown in the next 2 years. This is what we get for backing a state full of radical islamists who don't want democracy.
Of course, Bhutto's supporters are blaming Musharraf, but they are wrong. The ISI doesn't use suicide bombings. The Taliban has long been opposed to Bhutto (which part of "female leader" do you think appeals to those folks?), and Al Quaeda (which does use suicide bombing) has already claimed responsibility.
Pakistan is not a "state full of radical Islamists." Although the radicals are vocal and active, most of the populace has been in favor of democracy for decades.
We need to support Musharraf ... even though he is not always agreeable ... and understand that he has to deal with plenty of internal difficulties.
The question going through my mind is how foolish are we if we do not make national security our first issue when deciding who to support. It does not matter how well the surge is working right now, because five months of good news can change in the Middle East over a weekend. The Bhutto assassination should not come as a shock to anyone, and I feel really foolish for saying, “Wow, this means we need McCain.” Seriously, how foolish are we if we do not put national security above every issue.
Most likely Democrats will secretly use this to point the finger at Bush and say his failed response etc etc caused her death. It's going to heighten the mood of the liberals and then raise their chances of getting the nomination.
I can't imagine any of the major campaigns being so crassly opportunistic as to try to spin this to their advantage, and if they did so it would probably backfire. I think it will play into people's minds, as well it should, and probably give a bump to the hawks (Clinton, McCain, Rudy). But beyond expressions of sadness/outrage, I expect none of the candidates to say anything more explicit than, "in this time of turmoil and uncertainty, it is more important than ever that we have a President with the experience to blah blah blah..."
There is no President but Lincoln, and Reagan is his prophet
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016448.php
Isn't he supposed to be the clever one on the Democratic side when it comes to natsec? - Because even Senator Obama managed to talk about Pakistan this time without putting his foot in it.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
but let's not lionize her. Her rule was corrupt even by Pakistani standards, her method of rule had much more in common with Juan Peron than any affection for democracy, there is no evidence that she would pursue al Qaeda with even the lukewarm enthusiasm of Musharraf, and let's not pretend that her ascending to Pakistan's presidency would improve on the fragile nature of that country.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
See here for elaboration.
The three laws of the War on Terror:
1. We will work toward American safety and security from terrorism, and never through inaction allow terrorism to thrive.
2. We will work toward world safety and security from terrorism, except when it would come into conflict with the first law.
3. We will work to promote freedom worldwide, except when it would come into conflict with the first or second law.
We've promoted representative government with freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan because the old regimes were promoting terror. We needed to try something new.
However the old regime in Pakistan is not promoting terror or outright oppositing representation; in fact, it's doing everything it can to get elections going, without turning the country over to the terrorists.
It's time we just quietly stood by General Musharraf.
However the old regime in Pakistan is not promoting terror....
If you ignore the al Qaeda/Taliban statelet in Waziristan and the Kashmir insurgency, you're totally right.
Fair enough, but is it your claim that Musharraf is working with those people, or at least looking to shield them? If he is, then that changes things. But if he's not, then we have no reason to make him an enemy.
....in the Islamist insurgency in Kashmir.
Against al Qaeda and the Taliban, he is merely, let us say, unenthusiastic.
His halfhearted passivity has been hugely problematic, to say the least -- especially as the Afghan war is launched and conducted from territory that is his responsibility.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
and
How can we conclude PM's actions
Against al Qaeda and the Taliban are merely unenthusiastic unenthusiastic?
Especially given our main goal of preventing more 911's and the defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq?
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Bhutto’s Death Means the status quo will prevail for now. With all due respect, her last involvement is Pakistani government affairs is not without substantial and substantive controversy. There are certainly many nice platitudes about Ms. Bhutto and these will increase with her assassination. But the fact of the matter is that neither she nor any other current “candidate” has the personal status or influence to prevent a further slide into the radical abyss.
Many of the personal attacks on Mr. Musharraf have been made under a pretext of proliferating democracy. However, these wistful opines do not account for a very tenuous reality which defines Pakistani geopolitics; that in order to defeat radical forces a more authoritarian rule is needed. Some may correctly point out that attacks have increased as Musharraf has tried to clumsily balance the country’s situation. However, much of his recent actions are borne from a need to balance an international pressure for steps towards wider democracy in tandem with pinpoint actions against radical tribal groups, especially on the border with Afghanistan. This foolishly projects those prominent previously corrupt political players, largely willing to make deals with other groups including radicals, will simply supplant Musharraf and succeed purely because they are participants in a democratic process. Nothing could be more short sighted or ridiculous with such an unstable environment in a country that not only holds nuclear weapons, but sits astride one of the most crucial bastions of regional stability.
While I for one may not be happy with the entire situation, it could be much worse without Musharraf.
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
BTW. The next Pakistani President should be Ms. Bhutto's son, currently at Oxford.
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
al Qaeda publickly and with massive force? It sems that AQ is expanding their sphere of influence EASTward.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Musharraf, et al leaked to the press they have AQ and a local radical on tape talking about the Bhutto assasination. This is either the opening shot or a very clever ruse by ISI or someone else to put up a smokescreen. Either way, it will help build popular support to go after radical elements; something that has in the past not garnered favor with a large cross section of the populace.
"Nec Aspera Terrent"
bene ambula et redambula
Contributor to The Minority Report
that the enemy now threatens Pakistan itself which will rouse them to wage war seriously
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/4848
http://www.redstate.com/stories/war/al_qaeda_opens_a_new_front
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
She herself claimed that Al qaeda was involved in her removal from office. My extremely small sampling of Pakistan thought is that the Taliban/Al Qaeda was behind this.
Let us not forget that her prior rule was marked by extreme corruption and poor domestic results.
The only goal of this game, as far as our enemies are concerned, is to gain control of the Pakistani nuclear weapons complex. I am sincerely hoping that whatever rational, pro-American part of the CIA/Dept. of State remains is thinking on these lines and doing whatever it takes to assure that does not happen.
I believe within the last week or two she publically stated that she would go after Al Qaeda and the Taliban. This would be a typical reaction of AQ along the lines of their assasination of Sheik Sattar in Anbar Province, Iraq after he lead the "Awakening" there.
And you are right. Just posted today from Bill Roggio at The Long War Journal.
and Mrs Bhutto was not Mrs. Aquino. To paraphrase FDR, they're all SOBs and not one of them is our SOB.
Musharraf has been weakened badly in the last few months. If anything, the US will need to step up its involvement in order to prevent an anti-US, anti-Karzai policy from emerging in Pakistan.
The American/NATO forces in Afghanistan are supplied through Pakistan. if things go all to hell then the only alternative ways out are through Iran or the various SoandSoStans to the North. Imagine what their price would be for giving us an exit route.
... B-2 Spirit
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Editor for The Hinzsight Report
Worst case we blast our way though. Give us a good excuse anyways. You don't let the terrorist win. And if things get really bad, take out the nukes. We can also team up with the India to take out any terrorist regime that might take over Pakistan.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
Iran/Russia/China all live in the 'hood and each would love to see a trapped American/NATO army crawl out. So if we were to start blasting our way out, plan for the possibility they might not just stand by and watch. India might take our side however.
But we'd be looking at the biggest collision of large powers since 1914, which didn't turn out so well for anybody.
Nah, Iran would not want to take on the US, not with the US Army in Irag. Russian isn't the same world power they use to be, and China would not want the economic sanction that would go with it.
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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third
The "moderate" Bhutto was actually a Saudi-backed, anti-Semitic, pro-Palestinian-terrorism force of instability, anarchy, and protest in Pakistan. Her return to Paki politics would only divide and conquer pro-U.S. forces in the country, allowing the more popular Islamists to dominate. That she was assassinated was not a good thing. But that she is now gone from Pakistani politics is a positive development in a myriad of ways. - http://www.debbieschlussel.com/
Yet a different read on this - seems to be some nuggets in this.
Please be honest with me, would we be concerned about Pakistan if Al-Qaeda wasn't based in Afghanistan and Pakistan didn't have any nuclear bombs to start with?
Yes, I know, it's a cynical question. Honestly, it is incredibly hard for me to sympathize with either Bhutto or Musharraf, their beliefs are radically different from mine. Is it wrong of me to say that both of them, by American standards, are too extreme for my taste?
No offense, personally, I believe that we need to do everything in our power to aid Pakistan, since she is indeed our ally. However, at the same time, I'm not so thrilled that while we're giving Iraqis a taste of freedom, we actually have to root for Musharraf to crack down hard on radicals, thus postponing democracy to take root over there. I don't think it's hypocritical, it's just that we're dealing with each nation on an individual basis.
In any case, I doubt this will bode very well for Pakistan and Musharraf.
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
Pakistan is a strategically important nation with well over one hundred million people, but so is Nigeria. The gravest danger to American security is a rogue state supplying nuclear weapons to terrorists. The United States MUST use its influence to prevent the shoddily protected Pakistani nuclear arsenal from falling into the hands of the radical Islamists that constitute about ten percent of that nation's population. If not to save our own lives, but to prevent a nuclear holocaust in India should one of the Kashmir irredentists grow tired of peace talks.
Our influence rests on giving Musharraf's regime money and military supplies in exchange for cooperation taking out Al Qaeda and working with India. While not achieving perfect results, tensions between Pakistan and India have relaxed since the near war in 2002, and the Pakistani army has routed Al Qaeda operatives after a bitter fight in the remote region of Waziristan.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
that we can make more free, and in any event, that when we remove a regime we should, of course, offer freedom and see if it can take hold. It appears to be taking hold in Iraq. praise god
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
does this mean Bush is going to have to call up more National Guard reserves and withraw some battalions from Iraq, then redeploy them to Afghanistan in order to shore up Musharraf's crackdown effort on the Islamic radicals? I do honestly wonder how much of this will affect the progress we've made over years in Iraq, now that Pakistan is suddenly the top foreign policy issue, even if it's only temporary?
I REALLY don't want anything to jeoparodize the mission we have in Iraq right now. In long term, Iraq is still more important than Pakistan, and I don't want our attention to be taken off on that, not even for a minute.
I'm wondering if Jeff Emmanuel could answer my military questions...would be interesting to know his answers...
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
If AQ wasn't in Pakistan we'd not have the specter of instability with nuclear capability & some goons like AQ playing "planet of the apes" & worshipping a nuke, before it was set off somewhere.
It's definitely not going to "bode well" for anyone, unless the perpetrators (likely AQ Afghanistan) are defined for the public & that turns public opinion against them. I'm sure AQ Afghanistan gets a bit queasy when the thought of even a brief window of opportunity for the US to go after them.
Luckily for us we have the Huckabots, who I'm sure, will show up shortly to explain to us what the "Great Communicator" actually meant by that.
Anyone else think of Archduke Ferdinand when they heard about this? Pakistan is a nuclear power who has two, possibly three, nuclear neighbors with another separated only by the narrow panhandle of Afghanistan, which has strong presence of two other nuclear powers. Somewhat unnerving.
This may well be an event like Al Qaeda’s bombing of the Golden Mosque. This certainly makes it seem likely that Al Qaeda has moved the focus of its operation to Pakistan. Despite al Qaeda’s taking credit, I wouldn’t automatically rule out some government involvement. It is possible that a rouge element in Musharraf’s government was involved - if for no other reason than that would create more chaos - to Al Qaeda’s advantage. I agree it is very unlikely that Musharraf was responsible, but it is possible.
Bhutto was very pro-US and would likely have forged a more solid and helpful relationship with the US. I think she would have openly attacked the pro-Taliban regions. A real aggressive pro-US stance might have opened up an active civil war, however. Now a civil war might erupt along different lines - both of which were pro-US. Either way, will a civil war invite intervention?
Musharraf is in a lose-lose scenario now. With Bhutto martyred, there will be a tendency to vote against him - even if he’s not responsible. So he’s more likely to lose the election. That may not be a good outcome for the US since I don’t know who the opposition party's replacement will be. If Musharraf wins the election, it will appear that he was the one who gained from the assassination. This could easily erupt into civil war between the pro-US elements in Pakistan. This is what Al Qaeda would want. They would then help both sides until they are both so weak that they can overthrow or indirectly control the government -and their weapons or their weapons technology.
There should be serious thought about Biden’s proposal that Musharraf step down, but not immediately - if it can be helped. If Musharraf postpones the elections and then wins, we’ll really have problems. Of course, it might be that Musharraf is the only one who can keep the county together - either peacefully or otherwise.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com





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American First, Conservative Second, Republican Third