What's new when the GOP Campaign '08 begins?
(Some toes will be crushed.)
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 — Comments (26) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
These early GOP Presidential debates, all these sundry polls, that will not mean a whit once Fred Thompson enters the race. The nominating process, the campaign does not begin until Fred says he's in. I've written this in the past because Thompson's entry in the race will change the dynamic of the race, turn everything on its head, but it sounds to be even more so than I had imagined
Longtime DC reporter/columnist David Broder of the Washington Post talked to Fred for two hours and lived to tell us about it. This sounds like it will be either revolutionary or annoying:
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Of Thompson, Broder writes:
[H]e says he thinks that the public is looking for a different kind of leadership. "I think a president could go to the American people and say, 'Here's what we need to be doing. and I'm willing to go half-way.' Now you have to make them (the opposition) go half-way." The approach Thompson says he's contemplating is one that will step on many sensitive political toes. When he says "we're getting a free ride" fighting a necessary war in Iraq with an undersized military establishment, "wearing out our people and equipment," it sounds like a criticism of the president and the Pentagon.
When he says he would have opposed adding the prescription drug benefit to Medicare, "a $17 trillion add-on to a program that's going bankrupt," he is fighting the bipartisan judgment of the last Congress.
When he says the FBI is perhaps incapable of morphing itself into the smart domestic security agency the country needs, he is attacking another sacred cow.
I doubt it will be annoying, as most of us are ready to see someone go after some of these "sensitive political toes" with a sledgehammer.
Thompson's main issues, Broder indicates, are "national security and the fiscal crisis of an aging society with runaway heath care." Of the latter, Thompson says:
"Nobody in Congress or on either side in the presidential race wants to deal with it," Thompson said. "So we just rock along and try to maintain the status quo. Republicans say keep the tax cuts; Democrats say keep the entitlements. And we become a less unified country in the process, with a tax code that has become an unholy mess, and all we do is tinker around the edges." Thompson readily concedes that he does not know "where all those chips are going to fall" when he starts challenging members of various interest groups to look beyond their individual agendas and weigh the sacrifices that could assure a better future for their children.
No, he did not say he would raise taxes. No, he did not say that he would eliminate entitlements. If he enters the race in early September, he will have a few months to say what he is going to say, and whatever it is, it sounds as if he will say things and say them in a way that no other major Presidential candidate has in modern times.
The Broder piece is short enough -- what did he do with the other hour-and-a-half of the interview? – and it's worth the read.
Broder concludes:
Thompson says "I feel free to do it" his own way, and that freedom may just be enough to shake up the presidential race.
It's not the way things are done – ahem, ahem – and the theory holds that… never mind. Let's see what Thompson brings to the dance. He still isn't giving us a firm date, but whenever that is, that's when the GOP Campaign '08 begins.
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What's new when the GOP Campaign '08 begins? 26 Comments (0 topical, 26 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
'been on the vine too long' was right. From my perch as a professional, I think Fred has missed the boat. He had a clamor going and he wasted it. For all practical purposes, he's been in the race as far as voters are concerned, but his mo has been squandered by staying aloof. Now he looks almost like a flirt who kept her date waiting because she was playing hard-to-get, instead of the grandad with backbone that America would trust.
I say this as someone who had high hopes for Fred as the one guy who could bring the party back together under a stable and believable conservative consensus, but now, as you said, he's sounding overcooked by half.
The interview is basically Fred saying nothing definitive, and that's suicide for a man whose biggest perceived strength was his decisiveness and judgment. Two months ago I'd have said the guy was a lock to take the nom and stomp Hillary. If he carries on with this fence-straddling he'll just look like another market-researched product trying to have it both ways. There's anough of those to choose from on the Dem's side.
Hillary as our opponent would certainly be a Godsend, but it won't be a cakewalk if we try to play her game.
Be nice or i'll slap you cross-eyed!
- Granny
I couldn't disagree with you more. You say that you're a professional, in what field I don't know but if its politics then that explains your views. You see Fred is not the Washington establishment candidate, McCain, Romney, Rudy, etc. They continue the status quo. What have any of them come out and stated their position on?
Fred is not in the race yet and we know more about where he stands on the issues than anyone else (except for party of Stalinists). Romney has been on all sides of every issue but what has he done that is conservative? I know been elected governor. Guess what getting elected governor of Massachusetts is not a resume enhancement and it certainly doesn't prove conservative credentials.
Rudy is pro abortion and anti gun, not exactly conservative credentials. McCain keeps finding new and creative ways to shoot himself in the foot and manages to be on the wrong side of the immigration debate.
These guys have been running for a year now and what claim have they staked to being conservative? The only thing they have proved is that if we elect them we'll get the GOP version of Jimmy Carter.
So in early September, with about four months to go before the first primary, Fred Thompson will enter the race. He'll continue to articulate the positions that already have him running first or second in all major polls and this race will be over soon and it won't be close.
Brandon
ConservativeSuperiority.com
No need to be catty. I agree that much of the base is still looking for The Man, and not real hot for any of those already in. That said, many of us also know how to read polls, and are very concerned with keeping Our Lady of Inevitability out of the White House. If Fred tries to muddle around like he did in the Broder interview, he's gonna have a hard time distinguishing himself from the pack and many will cast their lot with a guy who is right now pretty well-positioned to beat HC, with the highest favorables going.
The key to winning in this era is to make real and succinct distinctions and offer voters a clear choice: if you elect me, this is what you'll get. If you vote for the other guy, you'll get something else. It's not rocket science but it's also not so simple to find the right notes (see Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich). But you'll lose everytime if you don't sharpen your sword and zero in on your targets - both allies and opponents. This understanding was at the heart of Rove's genius, and it still holds true. Fred hasn't really marked his territory, and he'll have to fight for it with guys who have, for better or worse, already cultivated a lot of ground and had troops on it for awhile. They wonb't be fading as quietly or as quickly as some seem to think. JMHO, mind you, but i've been putting a lot of though into it...
BTW, good to hear other takes on this, as always. I tend to only post when the cycle heats up, because that's the ball I enjoy kicking around the most, and I appreciate your indulgence, guys. When does crosstabs come back?
Be nice or i'll slap you cross-eyed!
- Granny
Thompson says all the right things here. Sounds like the campaign is going to be great, and perhaps much more centrist than anticipated? If he can seize the excitement that McCain created in 2000...
Consensus doesn't prove anything, in science or anywhere else, except in democracy, maybe. - Reid Bryson, speaking on Global Warming
It may have been true that he would have turn this campaign on it's head if he would have taken advantage of momentum he had several weeks ago. A big splash now just helps to stablize his slide, he's going to have to really fight to restart his rise. Just my humble observations.
"I think the fence is least effective. But I'll build the god--d fence if they want it."--McCain
"I would rather have a clean government than one where quote First Amendment rights are being respected" --McCain
early momentum and enthusiasm -- among those following this race day-to-day, hour-to-hour. Other than that, though, he's fine. He's running a solid second in the national polls and in RCP's average, which is meaningful when considering whether or not Thompson has lost ground.
Of course, we'll see what happens when he announces. If he starts losing ground from that point, waiting was a mistake.
I completely agree. The only ones that care about politics right now, we'll '08 election politics, are the base on each side and the letter they vote for is already known and people probably already have their primary pick chosen.
At least 70% of the country is not paying attention and will not be until the summer is over. I think Thompson is smart to wait to announce. Whatever party a politician is from, I do not find it attractive for someone to be a career politician or completely fixated on running for a particular office. I think many are turned off by people like Edwards who has been running for POTUS since 2003 and Hillary who has planned and voted to run since 2000.
People get tired of a President in their second term, I think mostly because they need a change. Not of the policies or governance but just a new face. I think there will be burnout in this campaign for some of the people who have been running for years.
I don't buy the part about only the die hards caring right now. Sure, we're a small part of the voting population, but a much larger percentage of primary voters. In addition, we're the folks, as either bloggers, activists, and/or paid campaign workers (I'm not paid by any campaign and haven't been for years), that help shape opinions of voters and/or move people to the polls.
Therefore, I don't discount the value of being in "somewhat" early, and with voting for most of the country less than 6 months away, it's not really early any more.
Therefore, it's time to care, or it will be after labor day.
I think Thompson waiting was a move to freeze out Gingrich. It has allowed a bit too much life to Huckabee, who I fear is missing his chance to run for Senate.
If Fred comes out swinging, he can regain his Mo. If he falters out of the "official" gate, he has left himself little time to recover.
I'd venture.
Remember, there is a difference between caring enough to vote and following it as microscopically as we do.
I'm sure there are many who don't know that Fred Thompson has not yet announced; I mean, he's included in all the polls, and the vast majority of primary voters haven't seen a Presidential candidate yet.
In the end, it won't be about media/blog spin about "momentum" and "timing" but men and women pulling a lever in a voting booth. Republicans just agree with the guy, and they're certainly comfortable with him. As long as he's high enough to seem a plausible primary-season winner (and he's far from losing that status, while Huckabee isn't near gaining it), this puts him still in the driver's seat.
and we're over 14 months away from the election. Added to that is a familiarity with the Dem candidates that is truly leading to contempt. Hillary! appears to be getting a lock and the others are fatuous, empty-suited loons.
I agree it doesn't really start until Fred gets in, whether he re-centers GOP gravity or just clarifies things. But his campaign needs to rediscover some of the cleverness and subversive techniques they exploited earlier, because just straight policy emails are boring my socks off.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
I think the pause has people particularly spooked because of the possibility that Fred might turn out to be Bush, who either didn't realize or didn't care that silence, for a conservative, is political doom, because the media and the left will never play fair or stop pushing *their* perspective.
I'll worry, too, if Fred takes another pause after he announces. But I doubt that'll happen.
Fred has delayed entry, according to multiple sources, because of contract obligations with Law and Order and ABC radio. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp?
I believe Fred will dramatically affect the GOP race. I've seen nothing yet to discourage me from supporting him. In fact, the more I watch the others in the field, the more inclined I am to listen closely to what Fred has to say. He will be a breath of fresh air.
I'd bet 20 bucks it has more to do with disappointing fund raising resluts. If he were to enter the race and then post disappointing fund raising numbers, it would affect his fund raising efforts for the future and probably hamper his campaign. Unfortunately, the fund raising perception in most campaigns often ends up being the reality. A self-fulfilling prophecy sort of thing.
The only reason all these eager beavers jumped out there within a day of the mid-term elections is that there is no executive incumbent to deal with. Every one of these contestants in this beauty pageant were salivating, waiting with bated breath for November 8, 2006 so they could declare their candidacy. Otherwise, we would thankfully have had a break from presidential politics until at least Labor Day.
So why does the fact that all the rest of them couldn’t hold their water that long have to reflect badly on Fred? I submit that Fred’s perceived reticence is not out of any level of indecisiveness, but is a clear indication of deliberate and independent thought. God knows we have been far too long without a President who is actually capable of original thought. Let’s just all take a deep breath and remind ourselves what it was like to be prudent, reflective and deliberate.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the very next day after Fred declares, Rudy is toast as a front-runner. The conservative base is going to turn away from him like hamburger that sat in the meat drawer a couple of days too long. But he’ll be a first-class vote getter in the #2 spot.
basically declared already, as far as the voters are concerned. Officially declaring won't change anything dramatically. Not to say he can't regain momentum once he hits the trail in earnest and leap-frog Rudy by December, but it's not like everyone with a favorite is gonna drop their commitment like a hot potato and run toward Fred like he was the Beatles landing in New York. That ship has sailed. He has to do it the hard way. Also consider how far behind he is in the money race. Like it or not, that's still extremely important and Fred's team has not exactly made him a magnet for major supporters. If the money's staying away, there's usually a reason.
From a marketing perspective - On the surface he would seem to be acceptable to the business mods (who are gravitating towards Mitt) and the conservative base (who are still adrift though some like Rudy for his nat'l security creds). Fred's got the SoCos if he wants 'em, but he seems to be moving towards the yellow stripe on issues that are important to the base (if this interview is any indication), so it's like he's already tacking for the general. It seems a bit presumptuous to assume that he has the nomination, considering how the party has split itself of late. I think he has the goods to bring us all back together under one tent, but he'll have to start standing fast on a few things if he wants to convince the rank-and-file en masse.
And, quite frankly, he'll have to take steps to make sure his wife isn't a distraction, because she certainly has the potential to become one. The last thing Fred needs is for his narrative to become the subject of mockery and SNL material.
Again, I say these things as someone who likes Fred, but I'm also in the business of selling so I have to look at the product with a more critical eye.
Be nice or i'll slap you cross-eyed!
- Granny
if he had ever run anything.
If he had gone for governor of Tennessee in 2002, he would probably have won. (Bredesden won a narrow victory over Van Hilleary). Thompson would now be in his second term; the Democrats would be down one governorship; and Bredesden would not be getting hyped as a future Democrat presidential candidate.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
will DESTROY Hitlery contrary to what you think right now. This is the next McGovern election for the Democrats. (Unless you think once America understands and pays attention to what Hitlery has said in this early campaign cycle that socialism IS NOT SOCIALISM!!!...sure Hilly, LOL
Unfortunely she has stuck her foot in her mouth too many times not to use some great quotes in any 'debates' (like they really have those any more) She's a vacuous 'poser' that will be taken out as soon as she starts revealing policy details or is forced to discribe how she intends to make sure the rich are made to pay for all of these new programs and to defend how a bureacracy that can't handle a hurricane clean up or know where 12-20 million illegal aliens are or put up a border fence that was funded 2 X's is going to deliver a nationalized healthcare plan. Yeah, I can see how that debate will turn out.
I think it's funny to see everyone sqwirming around because the dinasaur media (props to Inghram) is luring Dhimm's into thinking that Kos is mainstream thinking. Chris Matthews is really smart(AND MAtters AT ALL...PLLEEASE) Their yelling into their echo chamber and its all coming back really rosy...except, I saw yesterday (?) in a rasmussen poll Guliani was suddenly up 7% over Clinton. Now I'm not a big fan of polls (especially any that say Edwards is ahead of anybody, just shows you no one is really paying any attention right now) but once everyone starts paying attention it's gonna get ugly. The funniest part is Hillary's negative numbers are almost over 50% BEFORE the campaign starts and a candidates negatives usually get worse as the campaign moves on.
We should be rooting for Hill at this point so as to get enough Republicans and others out to get more Republicans into congress while we're at it.
What really makes me upset is why Republicans will agree to debate on any Dinasaur media and Democrats boycott any debate on FOX news...why are we doing that?
CNN, CNBC is objective?
Right...
I just don't see it. I thought maybe he was delaying his announcement so he could move to a winning political position on the Iraq war (i.e., for withdrawal in the near future), but it appears that he has waited so long, what chance he had to generate any voter enthusiasm is finished.
Oh well, maybe he can scoop up the McCain campaign castoffs who spent the tens of millions he raised without running a single ad anywhere.
This is the first presidential campaign EVER that began the VERY NEXT DAY following the mid-term election. And most of these "beauty queens" have been trying to out-run each other since November, 2004 when Bush '43' became a lame duck with the VP totally out of the picture. Presidential campaigns have NEVER begun in earnest until after Labor day of the prior year, and for good reason...NOBODY CARES!! Have you looked at the ratings for the so-called debates? Why do you think all the big-money contributors are staying at home? Because they know, just like Fred does, that until after about Labor Day, voters have other things occupying their attention and presidential politics is just not on the radar screen of MOST voters. HELLO!!!
This nonsense about Fred "delaying" is just exactly that. This entire "beauty pageant" until now, has been a fabrication of the MSM. The longer the campaign, the more political advertising dollars flow to their cash registers. Fred has simply chosen not to step out on that runway because it's amounted to little more than an absurdity. And I, for one, respect him for it.
and it's clear that the game has changed, for better or worse. Judging this campaign by what has gone before is a waste of time, as is blaming the MSM for how it's being waged. We'll have to grapple with what it IS, not what we think of the whole sordid affair, if we want to win. As much as we may despise She Who Must Not Be Named (can we just coin her now as SWMNBN ?), we'll all need to keep our heads and put our best foot forward without having conniptions about her. She's counting on our side doing a lot of foaming at the mouth, and I for one am not going to give her the satisfaction.
Be nice or i'll slap you cross-eyed!
- Granny
Bush declared almost immediately after the mid-terms in 1998. It was no surprise when it happened, he had been putting off enquiries for months saying that he would not declare until after his re-election as Governor of Texas.
McCain was already campaigning. Gore had been running since 1988. So this is the first time in an open election since the last open election.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
www.race42008.com
www.hinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"One man with courage makes a majority" - Andrew Jackson
The GOP campaign is likely to begin just after labor day, probably in Nashville. I expect Fred and Rudy to duke it out. The GOP front runners will usually hug and make up before the election. Either one of them has the capacity to be a viable alternative to a socialist and a neophyte. There are substantive differences between the parties now. Despite the divide across both parties on the war in Iraq, Fred Thompson has some major, positive changes. He supports a flavor of the Fair Tax. He supports the second amendment. He favors limiting government to what government should be doing and the rest to the states. Can you imagine a Democrat supporting giving money and decision-making back to their subjects? He will enforce the borders. That was a thing that most previous Presidents did not do, and we have a severe drain on economic, educational, infrastructure and all kinds of problems as a direct result of NOT taking on the hard issues and fixing them. Same with Social Security and Medicare. When elections begin the day the previous one was over, election to office becomes the goal and not the business of the people. In my view, no wonder folks on both sides of the aisle are sick and tired of business as usual. Business as usual will NOT be the order of the day with Fred Thompson. If the election focus is not hijacked too much, and is restricted to issues and solutions, I think Fred Thompson will do very well indeed. Think Nashville and Fred Thompson.
That's what I was looking for when Thompson first floated his trial balloon. More recently, what has been released from him appears to be over-consulted, and parsed.
If he's really willing to have an honest discussion with the American People, (notice I didn't say Republicans), and not a phony "listening tour", he may well emerge as the candidate that has conservative values that can reach out and convince centrists and even right thinking dems to vote our way.
I'm still holding out hope.