Will Romney v. McCain = Dean v. Gephardt?
The New Dynamic With Thompson In
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I'm really fascinated by the Rasmussen poll numbers. It's way to early, but the dynamic is very, very interesting.
On March 27th, the polling showed Rudy at 35%, McCain at 16%, and Romney at 8%.
When they factored in Fred Thompson on April 3rd, the polling showed Rudy down to 26%, McCain at 16%, Thompson at 14%, and Romney holding at 8%.
Now, Thompson has all but announced. He's actually in the race with an Exploratory Committee.
Today's newly released numbers show Rudy down further to 23%, Thompson up to 17%, Romney up to 15%, and McCain down to 14% — basically a three way tie for second place, but Thompson clearly going up and dragging McCain and Rudy down.
What is more interesting is that so many Republicans have a favorable impression of Rudy, an impression that I think will change dramatically over time. Likewise, a lot of people barely know Romney or Thompson. In Thompson's case, at least, once people connect him to Hunt for Red October, In the Line of Fire, etc. I expect his favorables to shoot up.
This all leaves Romney and McCain in an interesting place. They could both pile on Thompson to take him out, but then they'd have to beat each other up. Or they could beat each other up, then go after Thompson. Or, they could just go after Rudy and try to take Rudy's voters away while ignoring Thompson, which might be the preferred solution lest they redo the Gephardt-Dean battle of 2004 and commit murder-suicide between their campaigns.
Again, it is way too early, but I think we can already see a wild card factor in Fred Thompson that is going to make this a very, very interesting race. Romney's got the money to stay in, but will he and McCain keep their supporters? That's the million dollar question.
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Will Romney v. McCain = Dean v. Gephardt? 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
because it already has rejected Rudy, Romney and John and the second tier people they favor now have no chance of catching up.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Will Thompson keep his supporters? Remember much of Thompson is unknown and he will have to compete. His numbers today are not much different than the beginning of the month. RIght now he seems to be pulling from Giuliani's soft support which would tell me perhaps his support is soft.
Since Romney has had so much negative attention I would assume his support is not of the soft kind, where as with Thompson I would say he currently has the softest under belly, no money and has yet to define himself to those in the MSM.
But you are correct with three guys in a statistical dead heat, it will be interesting where things go.
Now, most people will confuse the characters he plays on TV with Fred, but that works to his advantage since his most recent rolls have been no-nonsense law and order guys with a strong sense of right and wrong. Fred either also writes very well, or has had the good sense to round up a bunch of ghostwriters who channel Reagan reasonably well, and delivers them with the polish of a professional actor in his most important roll. Personally, I think he writes well, or at least outlines well before he hands it off to the speech writers and I'm not worried either way. Reagan had a rep as the guy who was only delivering the lines his handlers had given them, but when they released the collection of his speech notes from over the years we saw that Reagan actually thought what he speechified.
As for the money, I think it will be there. I only gave $25 to Bush in his first Presidential campaign and that was in the primary. I suspect I will be sending $25/month to Fred for the duration of the campaign. If I could figure out how to give the money without getting the torrents of spin infested junk mail from the committees, it would be "will be giving" instead of "suspect."
I'm ok with Rudy, and McCain is not really acceptable in my mind. I would be happy with either Fred or Mitt - whoever has the best chance in November...I don't the answer to that yet.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Follow this link to hear most of Sen. Thompson's speech in Virginia. At least you get a taste of what a principled conservative sounds like.
Any candidate that wins this nomination fight will have earned it. The fascinating thing about this contest is that we're going through a year of shadow boxing to be followed by about 5 weeks of real campaigning in 2008-and then it's all over. Shadow boxing does not deliver knockouts, so all four of these guys should be around come January. All should have enough money to get to at least Jan 29 (SC and FL). And at least three and maybe all four should be able to make it through Feb 5. In other words, not much winnowing. We've never had a dynamic like that before.
McCain and Giuliani are sinking like the Titanic. Fred Thompson's numbers really can only go up unless he greatly disappoints and underperforms. I would expect, frankly, that by the time Labor Day rolls around, we may see him as the frontrunner around 30%.
McCain is going to be polling in single digits by then. Rudy will be second place and Romney will continue to spend millions of dollars to earn a whole 10-15% of the votes. However, Romney is doing well in IA and NH but that will change as those states are influenced by national dynamics as well.
This is a sad moment for John McCain...someone I supported and gave money to. His campaign has shown its complete inability in the past five months, and now with immigration, he's really done himself in.
There's really no turning back now from Rudy vs. Fred, with Mitt playing the "hey me too!" card. That's how the MSM is going to portray it, they already are, and many of them can't wait to see McCain drop out.
Iowa and New Hampshire do the influincing on national dynamics more so than the other way around. That's part of the problem and why we need a national primary - so no state's electorate holds uneven sway.
Appear to be the under 5% second, third, and fourth tier candidates.
The support for McCain and Romney in both polls is unchanged. Guiliani clearly loses 9%. Even if you figure half that is going to the "less than 8%" crowd, that still gives Fred a good chunk of his appearance. And I don't think only half of Guiliani's loss is to Fred, I think it is closer 90%. I think most of the rest came from the previously uncommitted respondants, not the lower tier polls where any responses at all tends to come from ardent supporters of the candidate.
Exactly how would making the connection to "Hunt for Red October, In the Line of Fire, etc" have an impact on favorables for conservatives or more importantly why would, following the thought out, that have any potential impact on an informed voter?
I mean, I like what Fred has to say from a political standpoint, he hits the right notes most of the time, is taking the right positions and all that but we are not the emotionally driven party, supposedly, we are the grown ups.
Clue me in here buddy, is the brain damage having an effect and I'm missing perspective?
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
Yes, we are the grown ups. Unfortunately, not all voters are grown up or informed.
Emotion and reason are not direct opposites. Why can't someone appeal to both?
interesting that the Fred backers never discuss the USA Today/Gallup poll out on June 5 showing Rudy at 34%, and the Washington Post poll which shows Rudy at 32%.
I wonder why that is?
United States Air Force
http://airforcepundit.blogspot.com
Fred looked like he dropped in a bunch of them that I had looked at last month over the month before, while I get it that he had not declared and all that pretty much everyone figured he was going to and had him in the polls.
Now having said that, who cares, I think having him in is healthy for the party, esp if it helps kick out some of the second, third tier players at some point over the next few months.
The people we have as part of out party and the things they are talking about are so different than what the dems are voicing that the contrast and divide has never been this far apart. There is no question that America will have vastly different choices when it comes to direction.
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
Media polls are created and executed by people with agendas not compatible with accurately measuring Republican voter beliefs.
Run like Reagan!
Don't forget that the big four add up to only 69%. That leave 31% favoring second tier candidates or undecided. The short term goal for the three second place candidates to pull away from that pack.
The most interesting question right now is who is everyone's second choice?