WV-SEN: Rep. Capito (R) considering challenge to Sen. Rockfeller (D)
GOP strength in WV in Presidential years would help Rep. Capito.
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Rep. Capito was pushed by many to run against Sen. Byrd in 2006 but declined the opportunity. In retrospect, it was a smart political move. However, Hotline reports that the ambitious Capito is not being coy about her desire to step into the upper chamber:
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-02) said this week she may run for Sen. Jay Rockefeller's (D) seat and will "put the feelers out" in coming months. She said recent GOP voting trends in WV during WH years, coupled with her ability in '06 to "weather the storm very effectively ... certainly gives me a good feeling in terms of spreading my wings and going statewide." Others GOPers "are considering" a bid, "but say that before announcing their candidacies, they will wait for a decision" from Capito....
Rockefeller's staff "confirmed this week he still plans to run." Capito "said she has no plans at present to begin raising money for a statewide run. She added she would like to think she will make her decision independent of Rockefeller's, but that isn't the case." Capito: "In reality, certainly that would be one of the factors in deciding whether to challenge a seated senator or go for the open seat. To say that's not a factor would not be candid" (Youngman, The Hill, 1/11).
Other possible Republican candidates include state GOP chair McKinney, SecState Ireland, and '06 SEN nominee Raese. Sec. Ireland is a statewide official, but Rep. Capito is seen as the top candidate by most pundits.
Running against Sen. Rockfeller in a Presidential year is probably the best idea for Rep. Capito. If the seat opens up in 2008, then popular Gov. Manchin (D) would probably run. And if the seat opens up for any other reason, Gov. Manchin would be able to appoint one of the two incumbent Democratic congressmen who would then have the power of incumbency. Thus, if Rep. Capito wants to make the move, 2008 is her best shot. She should declare soon and start running full bore no matter if Sen. Rockfeller runs for re-election or not.
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WV-SEN: Rep. Capito (R) considering challenge to Sen. Rockfeller (D) 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I tend to agree that it might be best to save Capito as a powerhouse candidate for an open seat. I'm sure if her polling looks strong, however, that she may be ready to jump right in, and since she polled surprisingly well against Robert Byrd - it's not inconceivable that she could possibly beat Rockefeller in a squeaker.
Since Betty Ireland has been elected statewide, she would be a great candidate. Perhaps an Ireland upset in 2008 and Capito taking the presumably open seat in 2012 (also a presidential election year that could very well give her the advantage over the governor) would be a great 1-2 punch for the GOP in West Virginia.
This seat should be a top target for the Republicans.
I think chances are good that Rockefeller will retire if he thinks he will get a strong challenge. West Virginia is a Conservative state, despite the many Democrats that represent it.
I'm willing to bet the state goes at least 60%-40% favoring the Republicans in 2008 at the Presidential level, probably 65%-35% if Hillary runs. That means significant coattails for every Republican down the ticket.
The Republicans could buy this Senate seat for cheap, West Virginia is an inexpensive media market, $1 million extra dollars from the RNSC would win this race.
If Capito can tie Rockefeller and Hillary together in the mind of voters, get adequate funding, and the Republican Party has a strong Presidential ticket, she easily wins.
Hell, we knocked off Tom Daschle, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate. I think we can handle someone like Rockefeller.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Its definitely a possibility since West Virginia is trending further and further "red" in Presidential years. Rockefeller might drop if it appears a serious challenge is developing.
If she does not go for this seat now, knowing Byrd's health he might be there for another two full terms or 2018.
According to the DSCC chair every democrat but 1 has stated they running again in 2008. West Virgina is trending Republican but according to SurveyUsa he is pretty popular with a 61% approval rating.
Though as seen with Allen anything can happen in 2 years.
Don't ever take something that Chuck Schumer says as fact.
For starters, as this site already pointed out, Tim Johnson is by no means a "confirmed" candidate, at least not since the beginning of December. Then you have John Kerry and Joe Biden who might retire to run for President. Kerry, especially, has felt pressure from Massachusetts to make up his mind since there are 20 waiting in line to take his place. Kerry is on record as saying he'll decide whether to retire from the Senate in late spring. There's no way he confirms to the Schmuck and lets him leak it, especially without any corroboration.
Schumer is simply saying whatever he wants to in order to craft a story and to pressure Harkin, and everybody (including Republicans) have eaten out of his hand.
Anyways, Rockefeller already announced he was running before Schumer shot his mouth off. And I agree; being a Democrat in a red state is no guarantee that they're vulnerable. Rockefeller has been elected to the Senate by West Virginia four times already. While Capito would be a strong challenge, let's not pretend that Rockefeller would crumble (or retire) at the sight of competitive race.
Rockefeller is a multi-term Senator and former Governor with high approval ratings. Even granting that 2008 is a Presidential year, I think Capito's best chance will be in an open seat election, most likely as early as 2012.
If Byrd isn't able to serve the entire six years, its also possible that an election to fill his seat would take place in 2008 or 2010. Either way, Capito would have a better chance in an open seat election then going up against either Senator, both of whom have been active in West Virginia politics since the 1960's.
Capito and Ireland aren't the best of friends, and due to Capito's family (why she keeps her maiden name "Moore" as her middle name), she weilds a lot more power with the state GOP than Ireland. Capito and her allies may put the pressure on Ireland to challenge Rockefeller in 2008 so the GOP has a credible challenger, while Capito waits for a seat to open up, and with Ireland as either a Senator or a statewide loser, Capito clears up the primary for herself.