How Jim Whitehead Lost His Sure Thing in GA-10
By Erick Posted in Elections — Comments (30) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
RedState endorsed Jim Whitehead went down in flames in Georgia last night. His opponent, Dr. Paul Broun, will head to Washington. Whitehead was heavily backed by the establishment Republicans and Dr. Paul Broun, to put it mildly, is the Kossacks' worst nightmare - military pro-gun, fundamentalist evangelical, hard core states rights, and anti-budget. He said he'd carry a pocket Constitution with him and use the Bible to measure matters on which he'd vote.
Going into the runoff, Whitehead had such a strong lead, in historic Georgia terms, he had over an 88% chance of winning the runoff. The congressional district pitted heavily liberal and large Athens-Clarke County in the west (home of the University of Georgia) with Richmond and Columbia Counties in the east - the real population center of the district. Broun was from the Athens-Clarke area and Whitehead from the Richmond-Columbia area, an area he represented in the State Senate.
That Whitehead imploded is just another amazing spectacle in how Beltway Republicans have lost their ability to run campaigns. Here's what happened.
Read on . . .
Whitehead, going into the race, quickly retained Georgia political consultant Joel McElhannon, a guy with one of the most impressive win records in the state. Unfortunately for Joel, Whitehead was also extremely loyal to Charlie Norwood and took on Norwood's old political staff lock, stock, and barrel. They were quite happy letting Joel call shots during the primary, but once it was over and they had such a commanding lead, they shoved the in-state consultant, Joel, aside, and prepared for the swearing in ceremony.
During the three weeks of running the runoff, contrary to the advice of all the in-state consultants, the Norwood crew (they were in-state, but totally of the D.C. mindset after years of working for Charlie) starting picking out wall paper.
With a sizable war chest, they decided to ignore the Athens-Clarke County area of the district and instead run radio in Columbia and Richmond reminding people to go vote. In other words:
— They did no television advertising.
— They did no mail outs.
— They did no polling.
— They did no phone banking.
In fact, the only thing the Whitehead team did was sent out bulk mail fundraising solicitations. No word yet on who got a commission off those. (Yeah, you Democrat readers have seen the same pattern with your beltway consultants, haven't you?)
For three weeks, Paul Broun told the Athens-Clark County area of the district that Jim Whitehead would ignore them. For three weeks, Jim Whitehead did just that.
For three weeks, Paul Broun went into Whitehead's base territory with youthful door to door volunteers targeting Christian households and hard core conservative voters. For three weeks, Jim Whitehead did not knock on doors.
In the primary, Broun got 1000 votes in his own base, only about 25% of the total vote cast there. In the runoff, he got over 5000 votes, or 90%. In fact, down the west side of the district, Broun reigned supreme.
In Whitehead's base territory, Broun was able to pick up a quarter to a third of all voters in the major areas - decimating Whitehead's political army.
And, within 6 hours of the results, Charlie Norwood's political staff began throwing the blame in every direction -- including at McElhannon, the guy they cut off from the campaign. But, those of us who have observed this race know one thing and recognize another.
We know that McElhannon was shoved aside by Charlie Norwood's political machine.
We recognize this is the same pattern and practice of inside the beltway Washington, D.C. GOP operatives who think they know best and don't even know the dynamics of the district.
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I'm glad the guy who had to work for it got it, then. We need more dogs with fight in them on Capitol Hill.
Perhaps you are right, but I'm not going to complain when a conservative wins, especially when he took a much stronger stand against amnesty and illegal immigration.
My belief in the GOP inside the beltway policians to do the right thing and run the right candidates is pretty low right now. I can't help but think we are better off with Broun!
GOP leadership, here comes the message!
What DC consultant in their right mind would advise against running TV? It's the most expensive thing a candidate can do, so commissions are presumably the highest, right?
Similarly, why wouldn't they poll or do mail? These are the things that get you paid.
I mean, unless their general consultant was also their fund raiser this doesn't make much sense at all.
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert
unless their general consultant was also their fund raiser this doesn't make much sense at all.
Hmmmmmm. . . .
For a media firm. So I guess I find it pretty incomprehensible that this guy didn't run TV if he could have afforded it, no matter who was advising him. If he won this runoff, it would have been his seat for life.
Seriously, a couple thousand points of broadcast can't be that much in Augusta. Heck, just running on cable probably would have made the difference of a couple of hundred votes.
If you're going to be that stupid and raise money for it's own sake, you deserve to lose.
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert
It looks like the Whitehead Campaign used the same campaign plan the GOP used in 2006.
George W. Bush: He's A Folder ... Not A Fighter.
They never learn, do they?
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I'd like to read more about it. Any recommended articles?
Any blame slung in his direction will roll off like Teflon; unfortunately for others involved, they will likely not be so durable.
Sounds like someone forgot the most important rule to a campaign: make sure your ground game is solid.
I think it also shows a disconnect between d.c. consultants and those on the local level - and why its good stick to the people who got the candidate where they are.
paul
but I had a strong distaste for Jim Whitehead going into the first vote. Not only was he avoiding debates and coming across as an establishment politician, he also made a particularly stupid comment back in the spring, in which he said the Left is intentionally registering illegal immigrants to vote, which is true in some cases, "including known al-Qaeda terrorists," which is absurd - if he knows who they are, why doesn't he do something?
I live in the district (in Athens) and am quite glad Whitehead lost. He skipped a pre-primary debate in Athens after the date was picked by his staff (that according to the debate moderator).
He also said the top 4 issues were Savannah/Augusta issues. Not Iraq. Not immigration. Not spending. Not taxes. We don't need that kind of special interest politician.
Besides, the GOP establishment hasn't exactly been well behaved. We don't need more people to bolster their numbers. We need people who plan to actually be conservative, not who plan to be the pets of the inept leadership.
So many of us can't understand how the Democrats can keep sending the same people back to Congress every election. So many have been there for so long that they have begun to think it is their right to be there. They no longer represent the people who are voting for them. I wish those American Democrats would send in some new blood and dump those lifetime politicians. I wish those American Republicans would do the same.
I just read Whitehead described as a former linebacker with nothing more noted about his current career.
Was there an achievement gap at play here?
Whitehead has been pretty good at the business ventures to which he's turned his hand.
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We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
Enlighten this uneducated Midwesterner. I've never heard of elections for something like this in July.
Thanks!
IJ
By the way since July is the seventh month of the year, and the number seven is God's favorite number, but then what do I know? ;)
Dan
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
...anti-budget deficit, maybe?
Unfortunately, the next (and the next, and the next...) special election Beltway Republicans manage won't necessarily be a run-off between Republicans. Doesn't bode well for Republicans in Purple/Blue districts in '08, regardless who is at the top of the ticket.
--furious
"I find your lack of faith disturbing." -- Darth Vader
I know Redstate already stated Whitehead's stance on various issues. I don't really have a problem with him, neither do I with Dr. Broun. After all, I don't live down there. However, I'm very curious as to why do the Directors endorse Whitehead? What made Whitehead special in the Directors' eyes, if you don't mind me asking that question?
Above all, good luck to Dr. Broun, he's going to need it in Congress. And I do wish Whitehead best in his next endeavor, whatever it is.
Thanks,
Dan
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
here... along with a link to his campaign site for more info.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
the Directors didn't explain clearly why they endorsed Whitehead, was it because he lived in the district or that he had better name recognition? Or is that because Whitehead is a State senator? I read somewhere that Whitehead had 43% of the votes in June 17 (?) election, while Dr. Broun only had 20% and was only a hundred or so votes ahead of Marlow, a Democratic candidate. So, obviously Whitehead was a better known candidate than Dr. Broun or anybody for that matter. But it seems that Dr. Broun made the best of his time and ran a well-disciplined campaign.
Again, it makes no difference to me as long a candidate is a bona fide conservative, of which both Whitehead and Dr. Broun are.
Thanks,
Dan
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Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
you see an esquire.com entry that calls this a race between "Two ultra-conservative right-wingers." I don't know anything about this race but just read a bit about Broun. My opinion is, all things being equal (for example, if these two really are both ultra-conservative right-wingers, love that slur), I'll take the challenger over the member of Incumbistan every time. With a few exceptions, we need 100% turnover in Congress. A full transfusion could help cure a lot of ills.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
Based on the data available from the GA secretary of state it would appear that he has in fact lost the seat. It appears that there are still seven precents left to report. I've prepared a spreadsheet that you can view that shows the estimated votes remaining in each county and how they will be distributed assuming the percentages remain the same:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pjUxcGyzjgq7bG9jKTmZfZw
Hopefully my formulas are correct. Obviously there are a lot of assumptions in my numbers. Most of the remaining counties were/are favoring Whitehead but I don't know the individual precents and how the campaigns expect them to perform.
It looks like our directors endorsed the wrong guy.
What was it that made this burst of support for Broun possible?
Did Whitehead recently put his foot in his mouth or in some other way disappoint?
Or is it really just a matter of his forgetting to "ask for the vote'?
he carried a pocket Bible and used the Constitution to measure matters on which he'd vote and not his stated plan:
"He said he'd carry a pocket Constitution with him and use the Bible to measure matters on which he'd vote".
The inside the beltway GOP leadership needs further defeats of their RINO candidates!
A victory for Conservatism!