Redstate

-----------
Even those who learn from history are surrounded by those doomed to repeat it.

Here is what Gongwer says this morning: "Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton) is the odds-on favorite to replace Mr. Ney on the ballot."

And the Dispatch had this:
"Padgett said she would run for Ney's seat in the 18th district, a conservative region of farms, mines Appalachian hills and Rust Belt cities in central Ohio
[. . .]
Padgett, who said she has known Ney for at least 20 years, was flattered that he and House Majority Leader John Boehner, asked her to run. She said she wished the circumstances were different, 'but you have to take life as it's given.'"

She is popular and was the Lt. Gov. candidate for Jim Petro's campaign.

Kevin Holtsberry
Collected Miscellany
www.kevinholtsberry.com/blog.html

This will depend on *Ohio* law, so precedents from NJ and TX (which are contradictory anyway, except in that both favour the Democrats) are not relevant.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

There is not much time left in the campaign and the new person will have very little money. I think Ney dropped out to late but I do think it will help Republicans. Republicans need every extra seat they can at this point.

But, really the picture hasn't changed for me since Ney was safer than Delay and Delay is now back in the game and Ney is now out.

(1) The increased tendency of the Republicans to resort to the Torricelli method really bothers me. People fought hard for the elected primary; this is a disconcerting end-run around that process (see also DeLay, Gallegly (attempted), probably Harris and/or Schlesinger).

(2) OH law allows a member to drop out up to 80 days prior to the election. This seems to be a legal method, which gives it at elast a leg up over the Torricelli method.

Here is what I believe to be the relevant Ohio law on replacing a candidate (I've put most relevant passages in bold):

===
§ 3513.31. Withdrawal of candidate nominated in primary election or by petition prior to general election; election for unexpired term.

(B) If a person nominated in a primary election as a party candidate for election at the next general election, whose candidacy is to be submitted to the electors of a district comprised of more than one county but less than all of the counties of the state, withdraws as that candidate or is disqualified as that candidate under section 3513.052 [3513.05.2] of the Revised Code, the vacancy in the party nomination so created may be filled by a district committee of the major political party that made the nomination at the primary election, if the committee's chairperson and secretary certify the name of the person selected to fill the vacancy by the time specified in this division, at a meeting called for that purpose. The district committee shall consist of the chairperson and secretary of the county central committee of such political party in each county in the district. The district committee shall be called by the chairperson of the county central committee of such political party of the most populous county in the district, who shall give each member of the district committee at least two days' notice of the time, place, and purpose of the meeting. If a majority of the members of the district committee are present at the district committee meeting, a majority of those present may select a person to fill the vacancy. The chairperson and secretary of the meeting shall certify in writing and under oath to the board of elections of the most populous county in the district, not later than four p.m. of the seventy-sixth day before the day of the general election, the name of the person selected to fill the vacancy. The certification must be accompanied by the written acceptance of the nomination by the person whose name is certified. A vacancy that may be filled by an intermediate or minor political party shall be filled in accordance with the party's rules by authorized officials of the party. Certification must be made as in the manner provided for a major political party.

The GOP will have to move, but as we're still well more than 76 days from the general election, swapping candidates should be no problem.

Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School

As I recall, Bob Toricelli dropped out of the race in NJ (and was replaced by Frank Lautenberg)in the beginning of October. We are now at August 7.