Domestic politics have left the President impotent to respond to an Iranian attack

The President's own countrymen have pulled the rug out from under his ability to respond to any acts of war by Iran

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On Friday, March 23, around 10:30 am Baghdad Time, while conducting a routine merchant ship inspection in the Persian Gulf, fifteen British sailors and Royal Marines – including women – were abducted, at gunpoint, by Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, who proceeded to take them and their rubber raiding craft back to Iran, where they are currently being held hostage.

This is nowhere near the first example of Iranian interference – or hostile action – in the four-year history of the Iraq war; on the contrary, it is simply the most recent, and most overt, of those acts – any of which could be considered an Act of War against the US or her allies.

The hope that this situation – though clearly more than a simple “misunderstanding” – could be quickly or efficiently resolved, like a similar one in 2004 was, promptly dissipated Friday night when the Iranian government claimed that the British servicemen had “strayed into Iranian territorial waters illegally.” Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement which said in part, “This makes a number of times that British sailors have illegally entered Iranian territorial waters…. They were arrested by border guards for investigation and questioning.”

The following day, a British newspaper quoted an Iranian military official as saying that “a plan to capture American or British coalition troops was formulated by the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Security Council” at the beginning of the week “in response to the arrest of Iranian officers by US forces in Iraq.

Read on . . .

According to the report:

The decision was reached after a report submitted to Iran’s ground forces commander warned that information on the activities of the Revolutionary Guards and the “Al-Quds Force” in Iraq was being leaked to British and American intelligence agencies following the arrest of senior “Al-Quds Force” officers by US troops in northern Iraq.

Besides seeking retaliation for the mounting number of Iranian officers and personnel going missing in Iraq – where they are illegally directing elements of the insurgency, and where between three and four hundred personnel related to the Quds force of the IRG are now in custody – another possible motivation for this action could be an attempt by Iran to secure greater leverage in the increasingly tense nuclear situation – the next measure on which was to be decided in the Security Council the day after these abductions, with a vote on a resolution co-authored by Britain which would impose sanctions on the Persian state for its refusal to cease attempts to acquire nuclear capabilities. A “source close to the [Revolutionary] Guard” acknowledged that such tactics “had been approved by Ayatollah Khameni, Iran’s supreme leader, who warned last week that Tehran would take illegal actions if necessary to maintain its right to develop a nuclear program.”

The Security Council moved on the nuclear situation in spite of the sailors’ kidnap, though, unanimously voting to tighten sanctions on Tehran – a move which, as AP writer Alexandra Olson put it, was “intended to show Tehran that defiance will leave it increasingly isolated.”

The abduction of sailors in international waters alone is a clear casus belli, although, like they did in 2004, Iranian military officials claim that their captives “have admitted to violating [Iran’s] territorial waters.”

This situation appears poised to get worse before it improves, as, according to London’s Sunday Times, a “website run by associates of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad” is reporting that the sailors (whom it referred to as “insurgents”) will be charged with espionage – an offense punishable in Iran by death.

If this stated course of action is carried out, then any question Iran’s having committed an overt act of war will be dissolved. American troops are no less at risk of illegal action by the rogue state; the Revolutionary Guard’s weekly newspaper recently spoke of the abduction of American soldiers, saying, “We’ve got the ability to capture a nice bunch of blue-eyed, blond-haired officers and feed them to our fighting cocks. Iran has enough people who can reach the heart of Europe and kidnap Americans and Israelis.”

Sadly, were the worst to happen to these British soldiers – or were American soldiers to be similarly kidnapped and held hostage – any form of retaliation would be nearly impossible, politically, for the US administration. For months, Congressional Democrats and anti-war Leftists have been laying the groundwork for a response to any action against Iran, regardless of how real or how vicious the provocation - and have been chomping at the bit to employ such a response, which would entail the blaming of – and almost certain introduction of articles of impeachment against – President Bush for an attack on Iran which the Left has been claiming for months was being “secretly planned” by an administration which would use any excuse – true or not – to provoke another war.

Still bitter about the Iraq War, these Congressional Democrats would not only go after the administration for any action in response to an unquestionable declaration of war against us and our allies, but would likely attack any means of response at the source, by denying funding to an Iranian war effort, by passing resolution after resolution denouncing the President (with ever-increasingly hyperbolic rhetoric, including, one can have little doubt, the phrase “War Crimes”), by taking up the time of elected and appointed officials and military leaders by holding hearings (or “show trials”), and, doubtless, by attempting to impeach the President.

For a hint of the level of opposition the President would face in his attempt to respond to an Iranian act of war, one need only look at the bombshell rhetoric still being cast about regarding the Iraq war – or at the example set by Congressional Democrats like Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who in a Thursday appearance on Fox News Channel declared his intent “to sponsor a House Resolution seeking Articles of Impeachment against the President for threatening Iran with military action – an act prohibited by the United Nations.” This impeachable “threat” to Iran, as Kucinich sees it, is the President’s repeated statement that “no options are off the table” in the quest to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Given the hysteria over what has largely been nothing to this point, is there any question how far the Left would go to destroy President Bush, and to prevent any type of US retaliation to an act – and an overt declaration – of war against us?

Make no mistake: whether they had any real suspicion that Iran would actually provoke war in the near future or not, the Left has been laying the groundwork for such a development – and for their “BushLied!™,” “I-told-you-so” response – for months, despite mind-numbingly repetitive assertions from the President, from Press Secretary Snow, from Vice President Cheney, from Secretary of State Rice, from Secretary of Defense Gates, and from many, many others that not only are we not plotting to attack Iran, but that such a war was an unimaginably improbable notion, virtually regardless of Iran’s present or future actions.

These denials have clearly meant far more to Iran, which now feels more emboldened than ever to act against us and our allies, than they have to the Left, at whose deaf ears they have been directed. Left-wing “news” websites have been speaking nearly nonstop of “Bush’s war on Iran,” with almost-daily headlines making such sensationalistic, and fatalistic, statements as “US planning for war with Iran,” “There's time to reconsider Iran attack,” “Iran Attack Could Speed Development of Nuclear Weapons,” “Pentagon Whistle-Blower on the Coming War With Iran,” “Bush has secret plan to wage war with Iran,” “Bush’s War Heating Up - Attack on Iran Imminent,” and “Woman Colonel Urges Troops to Refuse Orders If US Attacks Iran.” As far back as July 2005, The Nation featured an article accusing the administration of conducting an “Iran war buildup,” and in January of this year published a Scott Ritter screed entitled “Stop the Iran war before it starts,” in which he asserted that “President Bush's State of the Union address proved he is hell-bent on going to war with Iran.”

A recent Rolling Stone article entitled “Iran: The Next War” began: “Even before the bombs fell on Baghdad, a group of senior Pentagon officials were plotting to invade another country. Their covert campaign once again relied on false intelligence and shady allies. But this time, the target was Iran.”

Liberal blogs, as is their wont, have advanced the level of rhetoric several steps further, denouncing the “many lies about Iran by the White House,” propagating the KnownFact™ that “the Bush Administration has been itching to find an excuse to go to war with Iran,” and calling on Congress to “de-fund the Iraq war immediately,” lest “Bush have extra funds with which he can attack Iran.”

With Friday’s incident, the denouncements – absent any action – of President Bush have been ratcheted even higher. One lefty blog called the authenticity of the British sailor abduction into question, calling it a “repeat of the Gulf of Tonkin incident” carried out by “neocons” who want “to lie their way into another war.”

It looks like we may have the provocation in the Persian Gulf that Bush has been looking for,” said another.

These are, of course, only the blog posts tame enough to be repeated – there have been far more, and far worse, than these examples.

The words and actions of Congressional Democrats have not been much better. Despite the fact that only Congress is authorized to declare war, the outcry from that deliberative body, whose members still claim to have been lied into approving the Iraq war (despite having access to no less intelligence on the matter than the White House), has continued without a letup, with Congressmen falling all over themselves to tell the President that they matter in the war making process.

Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has repeatedly said that “Congress should assert itself and make it very clear that there is no previous authority for the president, any president, to go into Iran.” Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) recently introduced legislation to force President Bush to seek congressional authorization before using force against Iran. “This presidency has shot from the hip too many times for us to be able to trust it to act on its own,” he said. “We need the Congress to be involved in any decision to commence military activities.”

“I’d like to be clear,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). “The president does not have the authority to launch military action in Iran without first seeking Congressional authorization.” Said Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY): “It would be a mistake of historical proportion if the Administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran without further Congressional authorization.”

Jack Murtha (D-PA) jumped on board, as well, stating that “we don't have the capability of sustaining a war in Iran” – and Dennis Kucinich, as mentioned above, declared his desire to impeach the President for apparently not saying loudly and often enough that we won’t attack, or retaliate against, Iran, regardless of any provocation whatsoever.

These statements do little but encourage Iran as, combined with the administration’s own repeated words promises not to act regardless of provocation, a clear and unified message is being sent, for the first time since September of 2001, from the shores of America to those who might harm us. However, unlike the aftermath of 9/11, which saw a (very temporarily) unified American front against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, the message being sent in this case is the opposite – it is a loud and clear signal to Iran, a nation which has said over and over and over again that America and Israel are the root of the world’s problems and will soon be destroyed, that they have free rein to do whatever they wish, both against Iraq and against the US, with no fear whatsoever of reprisal.

The administration has repeated its desire for peace with Iran ad nauseam. What has been, and is being, done by the anti-war Left and the anti-Bush Democrats in Congress, though, has greatly increased the danger to this country and to its national defense. The hands of our leadership are being bound tighter and tighter, with threats of political and legal retaliation being made against the administration not for possibly acting sine casus, but for even considering taking action in defense of ourselves and our allies, in response to direct affronts and overt acts of war by a nation which has increasingly shown itself in recent months not only to be no friend to America, but to be a dangerous enemy.

The Left has painstakingly crafted the current circumstance in which the administration finds itself, forcing it to ignore any and all provocations which might come from Iran, including troop kidnappings and possibly worse, or be called on the carpet for supposedly “lying America into war once again.” Changing circumstances mean nothing to those in Congress and on the Left whose overarching goal now is political revenge for the Iraq war – and the statement that we are not going to war with Iran, followed by a response to an Iranian declaration of war on us, will be treated as a purposeful misleading of America on the part of the President, and will not be tolerated.

The anti-War Left, and their allies in Congress, have now placed the nation in an untenable position: if America’s President acts to defend his country against an attack by a blatantly hostile nation, he will not only be interfered with (and likely prevented from effectively acting), but will be mercilessly, publicly castigated for acting against a nation he had previously been forced to promise that he would leave alone – and he will have to answer to a Congress which, in the wake of their Iraq embarrassment (and due to their lingering resentment at the impeachment of their last Democratic President), has long been itching to prosecute him to the fullest degree possible – proudly issuing “we told you so’s” to the nation all the while.

This is the state of affairs we currently face – and, while it appears to be one of advantage for the Democrats, the only real winners in this situation are a hostile Iran, and any other nations who wish to harm us.

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Domestic politics have left the President impotent to respond to an Iranian attack 29 Comments (0 topical, 29 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

Bush can and will do whatever is necessary.national security is the dem's big weakness and that hasnt changed.

We have proof that Iran has been supplying advanced munitions to the Iraqi terrorists who are killing US troops. We have proof Iran is training them. So what do we do? We call a press conference, lay out the proof, the major media ignore it, the Democrats note that Bush said Iraq had WMD's, the Administration backpedals and does... NOTHING.

The WaPo prints highly classified info about the rendition program the CIA is using in Europe. You know, the one that got KSM to cough up everything he knew. The NYT prints a story about the international electronic intercept program AFTER being told the information was highly classified and the program would have to be scrapped. And, oh yeah, the Democrats in Congress have been repeatedly briefed on it. They print the information. The Democrats are horrified because they didn't really understand how the program worked until the NYT printed the story. We need to impeach Bush. And don't forget the financial tracking program chasing terrorist dollars. You remember, the one that everybody, including the Times, agreed was legal? Printed it. Program's gone.

This Administration is utterly pathetic on national security. They can't even fire a handful of political appointees and not have it roil into a "gate".

You actually think Bush is going to unilaterally, which is what it will take, do something when the Iranians were just defending their waters from the Brits? After all, Iran SAID the Brits were in their territorial waters. Geez.
____
Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't.

Bush's deafness applies here too. We'll attack Iran this year. My money is on June-July.

British weakness should not be imputed to us. The mullahs went after the British, rather than us, for a reason. I agree with Robert Hahn below that the only strong reaction the British are capable of is strong restraint.

"This is nowhere near the first example of Iranian interference – or hostile action – in the four-year history of the Iraq war; on the contrary, it is simply the most recent, and most overt, of those acts – any of which could be considered an Act of War against the US or her allies."

Were the tables turned and Iran decided to invade Mexico and Canada, we'd be in there with both barrels blazing. We are in Iran's backyard stomping all over their interests. Of course they are interfering in Iraq. They would be insane not to be. They just happen to be the weaker player here and guerrilla action (and apparently kidnapping) is the best they can muster.

Do we want to use that as pretense for war against Iran? Maybe, but it rings rather hollow to me. I'm more interested in the tactical/political consequences of going to war with Iran. Can we win? At what cost? What are the regional implications. I haven't seen much analysis on that and would like to find more.

Let's leave the spurious one you have espoused to the side for the moment, and instead address it as it is: in such an event (Iran invading Mexico), if we indeed "went in with guns ablazing," then we'd presumably not be surprised if Iran, you know, fought back? Right?

So, I mean, do you have a point, here, or are you just flashing around your worldly sophistication for all to see?

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

"then we'd presumably not be surprised if Iran, you know, fought back? Right?"

Absolutely. We seem to be in some sort of proxy low-level war with Iran right now. Do we want to escalate it? We have a choice.

My point was more of an observation that many people here appear shocked (shocked I say) that Iran is involved and fighting us. Were you honestly surprised? I have probably %10 the grasp of geopolitics than many of the regular posters here do, and yet Iranian interference seems like a no-brainer to me. I have a cynical view of some of the indignation I see here and think its just being used as rhetorical support for openly engaging Iran.

FWIW - a nuclear Iran scares me to death (as does NK). Its just this particular argument of "they are shooting at us in Iraq" that bugs me.

In my hypothetical (which is yours), Iran is the aggressor against Mexico. So, in this alternate universe, if we interfere with Iran's actions against Mexico, they would, presumably, get ticked off at us and probably declare war. In the same way, in the real world, the fact that Iran is interfering with our actions in Iraq are indeed cause for people to get ticked off, and for us to react aggressively to them.

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

Not necessarily. They would probably ask themselves how their interests would be served by engaging in a full scale war. If there was nothing but downside they might choose to stick with a low-level conflict in Mexico. If there was significant upside, then they would probably choose full scale war.

But if there was significant upside, they would probably engage us directly anyway. The excuse of "they are shooting at us in Mexico" just makes for good rhetoric.

The Dems in Washington and their "peace at all costs; death before self-defense" base will make sure of that.

Evil prevails only when good men do nothing.

We have been in a low level proxy war with Iran for some time now. Iran never misses an opportunity to support Islamic extremism, irrespective of where it exists.

If you look back to places such as Bosnia, the Iranian’s had their fingerprints all over that conflict. Heck, there are related Senate Resolutions completely devoted to IRG’s involvement which was being openly conducted from Iran’s embassy in Croatia.

Their AOA at the time was primarily in the American sector. Why is that? Rhetorically, it is because wherever they can nurture extremism and chaos, especially in opposition to democratic process, they will. Hence, much of the call for escalating the recent conflict; this has gone on for years and the openness with which it is now being conducted happens to gall a few folks who have had enough.

I happen to believe that much of what is occurring now is having an impact. However, it should be made clear unequivocally that any direct aggressive action will be met with direct action (e.g. Using the example of British hostage taking, WE will sink the Iranian boats).

The problem is, Democrats are specifically trying to limit our ability to respond to such incidents by making it a BushieTM issue; a posture which will prove to be a monumental mistake if enacted.

"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report

I believe Jay Cee's analogy concerning Iran's hypothetical invasion of Mexico or Canada (or both, considering our quasi-simultaneous invasion of Afghanistan) is entirely apt.

The analogy has nothing to do with the presence or lack of a premise of "moral equivalence," only the obvious reaction any nation, no matter how good or bad, would have to the invasion of a next-door neighbor (complete with executions of its leaders) - especially in light of our president's declaring the as-yet-uninvaded, abutting (or sandwiched) nation to be one of three constituting an "axis of evil."

Iran's diddling with our efforts in Iraq (or Afghanistan) cannot have come as a surprise to the Bush administration (unless it is ineffably incompetent, which it could be - see today's Novak column). Why they did not do a better job of anticipating and designing a response to this all-too-predictable behavior is beyond me. If an invasion of Iran was always in the cards, the White House should have, IMO, done a better job of populating our armed forces, as we are having difficulty mustering the troops necessary for a mere "surge."

" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln

Do you have a substantive response?

if I fail to respond, it's not that I think you are full of crap and just an angry little Bush hater....my laptop keeps crashing..really

" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln

you benighted, foolish, insulting Bushie. Really!

" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln

it seems that you are looking at an evil country, and excusing their behavior based upon what our Pres. has done/said...do I have it right?

" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln

I am pointing a finger at GWB, because, in so many ways, he has proven himself an incompetent (which is a very bad thing to be if, as president, you have taken our nation to war).

But no, I am in no way "excusing" the terrible acts of a terrible country (of which, I'm sure you know, there are plenty in this world - should we invade them all?). I'm simply wondering how a president whose party - which happens to be mine, too - had control of both houses of Congress (until recently, of course) could have gotten us into this mindnumbingly horrific jam, without, it seems, planning for any of the numerous and obvious contingencies. Iran seized those British soldiers because it estimated, with good reason, that neither the U.K. nor the U.S. could (or would) do anything about it. The predicament is, to say the least, a huge blow to our nation's prestige. Now we can blame the Democrats or the media or even the American people if it makes us feel better here at RedState, but in fact the real fault lies with GWB. Sorry - just calling them as I see them.

talk like yours seriously. You and others chirp from the position only that some things have gone bad. And yes, mistakes were made. However, it is only my guess that in something as dynamic as war, not everything can predicted and planned for. Impossible. But I am not in the military, or in the Oval Office..I defer to those that are or have been in the military, and am willing to give those that have occupied the Oval Office a bit of line on "mistakes, and "competency".

Your words seem to say, "how could Iran not...look what we've done"...that my friend is BS...

" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln

so as to preclude an endless thread of retorts, I'll agree to disagree with you (while taking your views seriously and not calling them "BS").

But of course you would have to misrepresent policy and actual occurrences to propagate that fallacious position.

We have actually been engaged with preparing for Iran’s potential intervention in Iraq since the beginning of this conflict, while occasionally speaking with them in search of illusively substantive relations. How do you think Iran became part of the “Axis of Evil” in 2002?

Iran was somewhat cooperative after September 11th and subsequent events in Afghanistan. However, we knew they were working against us in other areas and thus would represent one of the risks in Iraq. The U.S. military actually prepared a plan for Iran’s reaction to our action in Iraq. The NSS has, from the beginning, included both near term and year out strategies on Iran’s involvement. This of course includes preparedness, which is the military's job, one they have done fairly well.

By the way, Iraq and Iran fought and eight year war to a standstill. We defeated the Iraqi’s in about three weeks. Thinks that’s on the mind of Iran’s military? You bet it is.

"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report

Just out of curiosity, since you're passing on the moral outrage, do you see a moral difference between invading a country to topple a sadistic dictator, and invading a functional democracy to establish an extension of your caliphate? Or are they one and the same?

"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld

Not to mention the fact that for the Mexico analogy to hold, you'd have to factor in the 8-year war that Saddam started with Iran, which took millions (?) of lives, and was only stopped when Saddam unleashed chemical weapons (the same weapons he never had, according to certain presidential candidates) and threatened to use them on Iranian civillian populations. Oh, and lets not forget that Saddam's unofficial apartheid program for the Shia, who are in the majority in Iran and Iraq, but are victimized in the rest of the Moslem world.

Fact is that if the leaders of Iran weren't bug-nuts, they'd have used the U.S. invasion as an opportunity to bury the hatchet and work WITH us.

Well, since we have the RIO Treaty with Mexico and Canada is part of NATO the Iranians would be flamed before they even landed.

Now was there a point here or did you just not think before writing?

By the way, is there a reason Iran is stomping all over Lebanon?

"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report

is NATO, too. Which raises a question I've asked before, can the Dems. stop the Pres. from taking military action in honor of our NATO obligations?

to invoke the treaty, get the NATO foreign ministers together and put it to a vote.

Kyoto Now! (Because only pollution from the US hurts the planet)

>>>>I'm more interested in the tactical/political consequences of going to war with Iran.

We remove the most viscious state sponser of terrorism on the surface of the globe. We lose many more people than we did in Iraq. The Iranians seem to field a tougher army than Saddam ever did.

>>>Can we win?

Easily. If we really wanted to, we could render Iran a 2-D plateau without even resorting to WMDs.

>>>At what cost?

A fairly substantial one. Lot's of terrorism in the US, lot's of dead and wounded soldiers in Iran.

>>>What are the regional implications. I haven't seen much analysis on that and would like to find more.

The Sunni Muslims become the more powerful sect of the two.

Turkey will have a very tough choice. They can either go globalized or go Osauma Bin Ladin. Traditionally, the Turks, the Sunnis and The Sheites were a three-legged balance of power in the ME. Now, they have the choice of taking Kamal Atarutk's initiatives to their philosophical conclusions and becoming a Western nation that happens to have lots of Muslims, or they buy into the Sunni interpretation of Islamic culture and religon.

The Kurds will have two out of their three oppressors removed from them. The only ones left, you guessed it, the Turks. I'm guessing Turkey will be the most interesting regional implication of the US dismantling Iran.

Kyoto Now! (Because only pollution from the US hurts the planet)

That's interesting stuff.

I was watching a History Channel program this weekend about the fall of the Roman empire; they mentioned that no one really understood why the Roman army, after centuries of military success, was suddenly unable to turn back the barbarians. The program's claim was that it was a malaria epidemic, but for some reason, I found myself with a mental image of Nancy Pelosi in a toga, adressing the Roman senate.

Can't imagine why.

 
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