Interestingly, I agree with Carville, too.
It's like your very own political Rorschach drawing.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2006 | Featured Stories — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Much like Crosstabs' very clever Robert Moran I was struck by Carville's recent quote about the elections (referenced here):
"We have to go back to 1974 (during Watergate) to find such a favorable environment," says James Carville, who ran Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. "If we can't win in this environment, we have to question the whole premise of the party."
(H/T: RCP)
Art is where you find it, and it's always nice to find art in the unusual places. Carville has a gift for turning a phrase, yesno?
Read on.
Before we go any farther, let me note for the record: we're going to lose seats in Congress this November. It'd be a shocker if we didn't. It's Year Six for the Bush Administration and there's a certain anti-incumbent mood going around that seems to be no respecter of ideology. This much seems certain.
Where I differ from Robert Moran (but not really, I expect, James Carville) is in how bad it's going to be. I freely admit that I'm basing this on what's no doubt a woefully misinformed and amateurish gut reaction, but it feels way too early to be making this sort of call: Election Projection's current call of DEM +8 simply looks right, based on what we know right now. I also think that the GOP's prospects will tighten up further as we get closer to the actual election. Again, this is based on just my own gut reaction, but that's how I see it.
I suspect that what's happening here is that Carville's playing both red and black. If the Democrats take the House, great for him; if they don't, why, it was because the Party's lost its way - which is also great for him, assuming that his faction is the one not blamed for it. Which means, of course, that some other faction will end up needing to be the idiot*.
Not that I can possibly imagine who that might be ('Ware the link).
Moe Lane
*Old poker wisdom: if you sit down at the table and haven't figured out a half hour later who the idiot is, you're the idiot.
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Interestingly, I agree with Carville, too. 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
of himself. Thirty years ago he wouldn't be allowed in a studio parking lot, a minor sign of our deterioration as a culture. But if you say enough you will somtimes make sense, if only by accident.
I do agree with the thrust of Carville's statement, but just who is the "we" he mentions? The dems are without introspection and would plunge on in their collectivist muddle were there no seats picked up. A fillip here, a bone tossed there, but the same old same old. And if Jimmy wanted to play he would do the same thing.
"a man's admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him". Tocqueville
I am not so sure that the R's are going to lose seats. It's still more than two months before election day. And there is a wild card in the deck. Ahmadi-Nejad just may be the elixer to all the Republican's woes.
Nevertheless, James "the alien" Carville is a guy I love to hate. He is the train wreck you just have to watch. Despite his politics, he is very knowledgeable about things political and is definitely a wordsmith.
I agree with your take on the upcoming election Moe. If we do not lose a few seats I would be surprised. Likewise, I would be surprised if we lost either house of congress - well, actually we never had the senate to start with - but we probably maintain a majority.
What is harder to see is 08. There are no compelling candidates for either party, IMO. That being the case, it does not bode well for our side.
Seminole 6, out
"there's a certain anti-incumbent mood going around that seems to be no respecter of ideology. This much seems certain."
There are that many endangered Democratic incumbents, eh?
And I guess maybe it's the policies (Social Security privatization, Katrina response, Iraq war, etc.) that are unpopular, not the ideologies. Oh well - explain it however you wish.
And regardless of Congress, don't forget about possibly the biggest switch - up to a possible +7 DEM in governorships (NY, OH, MD, MA, AR, CO, MN) to go from a total of 28-22 REP to 21-29. These are the people who run for president, run for senate, and sign on to redistricting plans (with the help of state legislatures, also swinging)...
...have had some interesting anti-incumbent results on both sides. Conservative rebellions in PA and MI, progressive ones in CT and GA: but, please, you tell us what else Lieberman and McKinney and Schwarz have in common.
Moe
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
Their primary defeats were political. In the case of Lieberman, his defeat may not reflect the reality of general elections in CT. In the case of Schwarz, his defeat appears to accurately reflect the sentiment in his district. I'm not sure either of those lessons are transferable anywhere else.
McKinney's defeat was a recognition by the voters in her district that the woman is an unstable moonbat who would be better off in a mental institution than the Congress. (Is that an oxymoron?) Anyway, her defeat isn't a lesson that's transferable unless you've got a Senator/Rep who's just unhinged.
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
a multi-pronged street brawl, ala the one in the movie “Anchorman”a few years ago. While we may have on our side a fight between the paleocon/Malkin/Buchanan wing and the neocon/Kudlow/Kristol wing and the Club for Growth/porkbuster wing and the RINO/Hagel/McCain wing, the Dems are also guilty. They have the nutroots/KOS wing, the Rahm Emmanuel/ Centrist wing and the Hillary/DC establishment wing all fighting each other. We all foresee a brawl on our side if we lose one or both Houses, but the immolation on the left if they don’t get at least one chamber will be just as nasty.
But he is still a slimy, mean spirited, carnival huckster.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle