You know I never look at polls, but...
By AcademicElephant Posted in 2006 | Featured Stories — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
You know I never look at polls--and after all, there are far more sophisticated tea-leaf readers here at RedState than I--but if I did look at polls, I would check in with RCP and I would be interested in two that appeared this morning regarding two races that conventional wisdom views as almost certain upsets: a Quinnipiac poll that puts Net Lamont's lead over Joe Lieberman at 6 points and a Morning Call poll that puts Bob Casey's lead at 6 points over Rick Santorum.
Read on...
Obviously, this is something of an apples and oranges situation since the CT primary is in 48 hours and the PA general is still months away, but it occurs to me that these results, which both hack the challengers' leads in half, might indicate something of a trend. In neither case are the incumbents in a position of strength as six points down is hardly where you would choose to be if all things were equal, but still it is, as RCP puts it, a "ray of hope" for both Senators. The Quinnipiac poll might suggest some pre-emptive voter's remorse as the thrilling glamour of Ned Lamont begins to wear a little thin--that is as people actually pay attention to what he's saying and think soberly about whether or not this man would be the best option for Connecticut. Or perhaps the Lieberman-blackface incident, which did make it into the MSM at the end of last week, rightly turned people off as they got a good look at the folks who are promoting Lamont. It may well be too late for Lieberman, but I still think this is one to watch--I'll need to get out my oiuja board and review, but I have a recollection of Howard Dean going from a commanding lead to a much more modest number on the eve of his historic defeat in the 2004 Iowa caucuses. Still, everyone took his victory for granted--that is until people actually started voting (or rather caucusing). Can Ned Lamont do a Howard scream? Here's hoping...
Santorum on the other hand, has more time and this good news may be the life line of positive momentum his campaign needs to move into high gear as we head towards Labor Day. It's something to build on. There are still points of serious concern, as RCP points out, but at least the numbers are starting to move in his direction--and they're moving because of 1) Santorum's effective advertising campaign and 2) Casey's always disappointing performance on the stump. Santorum can continue to do himself good with well-produced and targeted ads, and Casey can be counted upon to maintain point two. So I think some cautious optimism might not be completely irresponsible at this point.
Or at least it wouldn't be if I ever, ever looked at polls...
is that if you look back through RCP's poll history, you'll see that Morning Poll has always had this closer for Santorum than (for instance) Rasmussen.
When Rasmussen was +16 Casey, Morning was +12 (Feb)
When Rasmussen was +11 Casey, Morning was +8 (May)
So while the trend is good .... it still probably means a +9/+10 in Rasmussen for Casey.