Redstate

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Summary:
We will need to defend 22 seats - 21 that come up in 2008, and the special election in WY for whoever replaces Sen. Thomas. The 21 seats are in: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, KS, KY, ME, MN, MS, NE, NH, NM, NC, OK, OR, SC, TN, TX, VA, WY. Not exactly a series of hostile states, especially in a presidential year.

Democrats defend 12 seats, and possibly a 13th depending on who gets their presidential nomination and whether they will stay in their seat. They defend in AR, DE, IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MT, NJ, RI, SD, WV. Also, not terribly unfavorable for them especially if they have their incumbents all running.

The 2002 election resulted in consolidation for the most part - we took red state seats, and they held blue state seats. So while we defend more this cycle, they are in far more favorable locations than the seats we had to defend in even 2006 (PA, OH, RI, MO).

nt

AR: Mark Pryor-->Mike Huckabee
MA: John Kerry-->Mitt Romney
CO: Wayne Allard (retiring)-->Tom Tancredo

"We should scrap this “comprehensive” immigration bill and the whole debate until the government can show the American people that we have secured the borders -- or at least made great headway."
Fred Thompson

In all honesty as a citizen of Arkansas I have to say there really isn't a single Republican candidate in the state with the name recognition or popularity to even remotely challenge Pryor. The only major Republican who won statewide office was Huckabee and he is off playing presidential candidate. The other, Win Rockefeller, died last year so our bench is pretty empty at the moment.

Not running.

Tancredo? Not going to the Senate.

Its Schaffer, the high and mighty in the country club in Colorado have already chosen him (after backstabbing him for Pete Coors, who gave the race away to Salazar), and chased off McInnes (who stood a good chance of winning here).

On the Dem side it will be Udall, and polls so far show him stomping Schaeffer.

I haven't seen any polls on the Udall v Schaffer race yet. What are you pointing to because I expected it to be a close race.

Let the Democrats win all those seats with those matchups (except the Huckabee one).

Tancredo wouldn't get 40% of the vote. Romney is now Pro-Life so he will have the flip flop again to run.

Huckabee is the only Republican that can challange Pryor and he is looking at the VP slot I believe.

Tancredo never seems to be in any trouble winning in his CD, so why do you think he will do so poorly in a state-wide race? I am not a supporter of Tancredo for POTUS, but I don't hate him. I would think some of his views about reducing government subsidies etc would be popular out west.

"We should scrap this “comprehensive” immigration bill and the whole debate until the government can show the American people that we have secured the borders -- or at least made great headway."
Fred Thompson

A rabbit running under the Republican banner in that district could beat any Democrat. It is like saying well just because the PVI of the Congressional District is 99.9% Republican doesn't mean it isn't hard to win.

Steve King would be a great senator. However, I would be very nervous about him risking his House seat to challenge Harkin.

"The defense of our nation begins with the defense of our borders." - Rep. Tom Tancredo

www.tancredo4prez.blogspot.com and www.teamtancredo.org

n/t

that Chris Christie runs against Lautenberg.

Mike Doherty or Bill Baroni are our options to beat the old man.

"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert

That you can say about NJ citizens.

1) They hate their elected politicians
2) They hate Republicans more than their elected politicians.

After Kean Jr. lost I really don't think you will find a better person to win especially in a presidential year.

my impression of NJ.

It just doesn't seem like a republican can win anything in NJ-I figure NJ has got to change before the GOP can really win in that state-and I am not sure that is going to happen.

Although it at least doesn't appear that the GOP has given up in NJ like they have in Massachussettes.

1) If Rudy is on the top of the ticket, the presidential year factor is mitigated. Not wanting to turn this into an electability thread, but Rudy will at the very least keep Jersey close, so any Senate candidate won't have too big of a hurdle to overcome.

2) Beating Lautenberg is going to be really hard.

"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert

...the word I am getting who word from people who work at the Capitol building that we should not expect Mike Rounds to run for Tim Johnson's seat. It would be a dream come true if he did, and I would be on board with helping. However, I am getting word to not to get excited about it.

I still pray just the same.

Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }

Kyl's been in the Senate for over a dozen years now. Whatever you think of what he's doing now, he's clearly not a duplicitous individual by nature.

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

If a candidate has been inconsistent on one issue, we can expect him or her to be inconsistent on all others. That was the point, unless I misread the poster.

Whether duplicitous by nature or duplcitous by circumstance, it is still duplicitous.

Actions have consequences. Reaping, and such.

Is that, assuming that he really did lie flat out during his campaign (I don't know, I haven't yet seen transcripts of exactly what he said), that's still evidence of an aberration from an otherwise stellar record. Unlike, say, Arlen Specter, who has a history of scummery and betrayal marred only by his outstanding defense of Clarence Thomas.

Let his duplicitousness (if it is that) spread to other issues and we'll see if I need to retract.

We'll have six years in which to make a good, thorough judgment on this matter.

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

let us assume Kyl joins with a coalition for embryonic stem cell research (I assume he won't, but you get the point).

Will you still say his 2006 abortion position wasn't duplicitous? Of course you won't, and you have just acknowledged as much. Certainly you should extend the same courtesy to Arizonans, who may for all I know renominate him gladly or toss his butt out of the Senate.

Again, actions have consequences. Whether we agree with them or not does not extend to others with different viewpoints.

We'll continue this tomorrow, I promise. Unless I get sucked into another endless depo, in which case I will have betrayed you and you may feel free to never trust me again.

;-)

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

But I will ask you why you are taking depos while in law school.

I said "get sucked into one" not "take one" - this is what happens to summer associates (which I currently am).

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

For all I know you will be in the same office where I do the same tomorrow :)

Good luck with it, regardless.

to be a summer associate years ago, they should be taking you out to lunch and ball games on the firm. Are they actually making you work these days?

Frank Katz

Is it your premise that we should spot senators one betrayal per dozen years?

Because that's exactly what this is. It would be different if he hadn't campaigned on the opposite. If I lived in Arizona I'd have already signed a recall petition. But I live in Texas where we have one decent Senator and one wobbly one.

Otherwise you can raise 5 or 6 mill (which is probably at the low end these days) and run for Senate yourself, so you can presumably *never* betray yourself. Although most people who get there say they end up betraying themselves more than candidates ever betrayed them, that's another discussion for another time.

My premise is that a Critter who screws up once every dozen year is a darn good Critter. One of the best, in fact.

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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...

-John Locke

you're considerably more forgiving than me (and I think than the Republican base). If this passes, the Republican coalition is done. So all those other things you care about? They won't happen. President Hillary will get to put 2 or 3 on the supreme court, and get them confirmed easily with the 58 Democrats plus a few liberal Republicans ensuring things.

You may think I'm exaggerating. I hope we'll never find out.

...I should be with Kyle. I think he is someone worth reelecting. However, I must admit this immigration stunt he is pulling more than hurts. I have struggled to came up with an explanation to understand why he is doing it, but I have come up short.

I try to not to be a one issue voter. I am also not from Arizona. However, I will be stepping back to reevaluate my views of Congress Critters after this is over with.

I expect this kind of lunacy from Grahmnisty and McCain, but not from Kyle. It's not over yet.

Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }

We have all that many?

Smith in Oregon - he has a nice little non-aggression with Sen. Wyden, meaning his opponent will get no comfort from his Senate colleague, and by all accounts he is not unpopular with Oregon voters.

Collins in Maine - seems to get pretty good approval ratings on a regular basis. She also is no draconian conservative, so I'm not exactly sure what she'll be demonized about, other than the R after her name.

Coleman in Minnesota - if Al Franken is the best they can do here I don't know that Norm is going to be shaking in his boots.

The rest of our seats are in rock-ribbed red states or swing states. Perhaps the most "vulnerable" in this category is Sununu in NH. Colorado will be up for grabs, but it's hard to get a bead on it until we have an idea who on each side is even going to be in the sweepstakes.

Schaeffer vs Udall

And so far, Udall looks to be ready to wipe the floor with him.

The Colorado GOP has self destructed under the guidance of fake conservative Bill Owens and the Country Club set.

...a primary challenger in the way of an Iraqi war vet. That seems to be the word coming from Hugh Hewitt.

I think that is why Coleman is shaking in his boots.

Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }