Monday Open Thread
Seven Days Before Election Day
By Leon H Wolf Posted in Miscellanea — Comments (72) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
UPDATE: A commenter points out something which should have been obvious - the Rasmussen poll for VA-Sen was conducted one day - 10/29 - on a Sunday. This, for obvious reasons, could lead to an unreliable poll.
Seven days to go until election day, and I can't tell which way things are going. Majority watch has released a batch of new polls, and they are predictably at least 5 points friendlier to the Democrats than polls conducted by other companies. A perfect example is KY-3, where Majority watch has Yarmuth 8 points higher than the Democrats' partisan poll conducted two weeks ago, and 10 points higher than the SurveyUSA poll which was conducted concurrently with it. Another example is IL-6, which has Duckworth polling 4 points higher than the Democrats' partisan poll, and 6 points higher than the nearly concurrent Daily Herald poll. I don't have 2002 data for Majority Watch, so I can't run a comparison, but I'm betting that they are to this cycle what Zogby was to 2002 - the company which consistently and systematically tilted Democratic.
Some of the Majority Watch polls are absolutely ludicrous. Take this one in IL-10. Two weeks ago, the Mellman Group, a Democratic partisan polling operation, had this race 49-32 for Kirk - four days later Majority Watch had it 46-44 for Kirk, and now they have it 48-46 for Seals. NJ-7 is another district where Majority Watch has been friendlier to the Democrats than their own polls. Ditto NY-20. You look at these Majority Watch polls, and there's not a single one of them which seems to "favor" the Republican in the sense of showing him/her ahead of other polls.
Now, here is what the Majority Watch people will say in their defense - they take much larger samples (typically over 1000 LV) than most polling organizations which poll House races (which typically poll between 400 and 600 LV), and therefore, they should be considered more accurate. However, I'm frankly suspicious of a polling company that claims to get 1000 legitimate likely voters in a single Congressional district in three days. I guess the election will determine whether their approach is true, but if it is, the Republicans are going to lose close to 40 seats, whereas conventional wisdom has them losing between 10 and 25. In the end, either they're going to look very smart, and everyone else will look very stupid, or they'll never be trusted again. My guess is that the latter is true.
Other polling continues to send mixed signals. Over the weekend, SurveyUSA had Allen ahead 49-46 - Rasmussen ($) today has Webb ahead 51-46. I have to confess, that Rasmussen poll is the first one that's made me say "ouch" in the last two weeks. Rasmussen also has another poll confirming that Burns is within striking distance of Tester, 51-48, and also that Steele continues to close on Cardin (50-45).
What are your thoughts heading into the last week before the election?
Open thread.
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If real Real Clear Politics' information about the Rasmussen poll was right, it was done from 10/29-10/29. That's Sunday--a day when Allen's base of evangelicals are busy at church. Add to that the fact that one-day polls aren't very accurate anyway, and what you see there probably isn't the most accurate picture.
And even if they adjust it for "Republicans," I bet the Republicans that answered the phones are not conservatives.
Plus Rich L. over at the Corner suggestd that Rep. internals still show Allen up 2-3 points over the weekend.
And speaking of which, I really wish that K-LO et al. would be Allen's foul-weather friend. It's bad enough she can't stop drooling over Santorum (who will lose absent divine intervention in the form of a parlyzing ice storm). But she's gotta constantly carp and complain over Allen's deficient campaign.
I wrote "not conservatives." Let me say "less likely to be conservatives, especially social conservatives."
They have been working on it for awhile.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:HR04232:@@@P
Check the familiar names of the sponsors.
In the close races, it will come down to undecideds. Now, you've got wonder about people who still haven't made up their minds, and typically, these people are not especially sophisticated. Most probably won't make it out to the polls at all. But some will. And they will determine the future of Congress for the next two years.
How's that for scary on the night before Halloween?
After the weak recruitment left Republicans primarily on the defensive in Senate races this year, I expected us to be more worried about losing the Senate than the House.
We should be set in the House. We have incumbency, we have the economy, we have the war, we passed the strong anti-illegal immigration bill, we have gerrymanders, and we have good own-representative ratings.
But here we are. Guys, if the difficulties of this cycle don't teach the House leadership a lesson, even in a win, then no general election will teach anything. So give up those thoughts now and forever.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
The "correct" response to illegal immigration came way to late to change minds. It's unfortunate, but the most Conservative of the Republicans waited too long to pursue the correct course (for them, politics triumphed - badly).
That leaves many conservative Republicans wondering just what the heck they are for! They may be for a "fence", but also want the opportunities afforded to the small business's that need the cheap labor. That makes them vulnerable to the all-mighty dollar... The political class needs to be cleaned out.
The House Republicans have been pushing a hard line on immigration all along. They are the sole reason we did not get stuck with "comprehensive immigration reform", at least not yet.
that the House has been the most responsive to illegal immigration, but when the Senate blocks everything they pass, it reflects on both houses...badly (after all, we do have a majority). Just doesn't seem right that the President pushes homeland security but opts for open borders so, I guess in the long run, the President is at fault for not pushing the issue more... It will probably take a major attack (via the porous border) before any of the current politicians take this seriously.
We lose the War. All other discussion is moot.
"The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal comfort, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."
That's what Mehlman said when first reading the exit polls in '04.
Those numbers dropped b/c Rasmussen is a serious pollster, plus last week saw movements toward Webb.
This poll made me wince as well.
That SurveyUSA polls was taken early last week. I suspect a few more will be up tomorrow and Wednesday. It'll be curious to see how these go.
If the AVERAGE of the polls taken later this week/weekend show Webb up 4 or more, it's over. 1-3, toss-up. If, it's even, Allen should win.
One bright spot--the press is SO hostile to Allen that I think a few percentage points worth of people have been reluctant to tell the truth.
Even more so on the marriage amendment. The polls show it polling in the low 50s. It'll pass by at least 65%, I suspect.
And Rasmussen is not a guy to cook the poll, so this is very bad news. IMO, if Allen goes down, then Corker and Talent are likely to fall, as well. I had thought the Senate was safe (a 3 or 4 seat loss). Now, I'd guess the Dems are taking it over.
And NRO's shilling for Santorum is getting ridiculous. At least fawn over somebody who might win his friggin' race!
Corker and Talent, like Kean, Burns, and Steele, all showed movement in their direction last week. If all the movement continues, we're looking at a 51 or 52 seat majority.
Curious, have you ever posted anything suggesting a "comeback," or is your name supposed to be ironic?
I'll leave it to others to discuss whether you're "GOP."
And Corker seemed to have momentum last week and lost it (according to NRO).
I was expecting some sort of comeback, but there has been no stepping up of the national GOP campaign, and some downright idiotic campaign decisions from the candidates, like Allen bringing up Webb's book (which has backfired badly) and Jean Schmidt bringing up the possibility of nuclear waste dumping in her district.
The fact it was Rasmussen to come out with this poll worries me the most.
You slipped a bit there on the Talent-McKaskill race.
But man, do you really think Dem women are going to vote for Webb given his history? Or that a majority of Old Dominion voters will go into that booth and cast a vote for a man that described a "non-sexual" incestuous homosexual pedophilia BJ?
not
Allen wins
re Rassmussen
Have any races that he has been polling on flipped from 4 weeks ago? Has anyone been elected to office in the past 4 weeks?
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
Actually, I think Allen has been focusing much too much on Dem women (and women in general) and is losing support among men. He's run a very strange campaign so far.
But the main thing is that Webb is too liberal on too many issues to beat a conservative with a long good record of service to Virginians. Allen wins big.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
regarding Webb being too liberal...but does that really convert into Republican votes? It seems that Virginia is slowly turning into a suburb of DC and that does not bode well for conservatives. This may be the year that it changes, hope not, but the potential certainly exists...
That in the end enough conservatives will turn out to make up for the apathy of the moderate (and somewhat easier to brainwash) GOP. I wish I was down in VA where my vote really matters but instead I'll be casting a symbolic anti-Hillary vote.
The House doesn't look good but the I can't imagine VA falling. And I am mildly hopeful for NJ.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Just wondering if this was true, and if it is, who is going to be there?
This almost makes me want to subscribe to the CNN pipeline thingie... That might be interesting.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
CNN pipeline is free for 14 days... I hate CNN but if this blogger thing is happening I might watch it.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I'm cagey, but not worried. I think we need to concentrate very hard on the basics going into this last week and just focus on them and the GOTV with a laser-like intensity. I am absolving myself of having any respect for polling at this point. The polls are strictly up to the pollsters and their various and sundry methodologies. What is going to matter is what happens at 9:00 in the morning on November 7. That's it. So in this last week, I would prefer if people would lay off the polling stats. and just concentrate on the real fundamentals: getting people out to vote on the issues in all the battlegrounds around the country.
This is the Surreal Election. The Polls Don't Matter. What matters is the Spirit.
Genesis
1 In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth.
2 Now the earth was formless and empty. Darkness was on the surface of the deep. God's Spirit was hovering over the surface of the waters.
3 God said, "Let there be light," and there was light.
4 God saw the light, and saw that it was good. God divided the light from the darkness.
5 God called the light "day," and the darkness he called "night." There was evening and there was morning, one day.
6 God said, "Let there be an expanse in the middle of the waters, and let it divide the waters from the waters."
7 God made the expanse, and divided the waters which were under the expanse from the waters which were above the expanse; and it was so.
8 God called the expanse "sky." There was evening and there was morning, a second day.
9 God said, "Let the waters under the sky be gathered together to one place, and let the dry land appear;" and it was so.
10 God called the dry land "earth," and the gathering together of the waters he called "seas." God saw that it was good.
11 God said, "Let the earth put forth grass, herbs yielding seed, and fruit trees bearing fruit after their kind, with its seed in it, on the earth;" and it was so.
12 The earth brought forth grass, herbs yielding seed after their kind, and trees bearing fruit, with its seed in it, after their kind; and God saw that it was good.
13 There was evening and there was morning, a third day.
14 God said, "Let there be lights in the expanse of sky to divide the day from the night; and let them be for signs, and for seasons, and for days and years;
15 and let them be for lights in the expanse of sky to give light on the earth;" and it was so.
16 God made the two great lights: the greater light to rule the day, and the lesser light to rule the night. He also made the stars.
17 God set them in the expanse of sky to give light to the earth,
18 and to rule over the day and over the night, and to divide the light from the darkness. God saw that it was good.
19 There was evening and there was morning, a fourth day.
20 God said, "Let the waters swarm with swarms of living creatures, and let birds fly above the earth in the open expanse of sky."
21 God created the large sea creatures, and every living creature that moves, with which the waters swarmed, after their kind, and every winged bird after its kind. God saw that it was good.
22 God blessed them, saying, "Be fruitful, and multiply, and fill the waters in the seas, and let birds multiply on the earth."
23 There was evening and there was morning, a fifth day.
24 God said, "Let the earth bring forth living creatures after their kind, livestock, creeping things, and animals of the earth after their kind;" and it was so.
25 God made the animals of the earth after their kind, and the livestock after their kind, and everything that creeps on the ground after its kind. God saw that it was good.
26 God said, "Let us make man in our image, after our likeness: and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the birds of the sky, and over the livestock, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth."
27 God created man in his own image. In God's image he created him; male and female he created them.
28 God blessed them. God said to them, "Be fruitful, multiply, fill the earth, and subdue it. Have dominion over the fish of the sea, over the birds of the sky, and over every living thing that moves on the earth."
29 God said, "Behold, I have given you every herb yielding seed, which is on the surface of all the earth, and every tree, which bears fruit yielding seed. It will be your food.
30 To every animal of the earth, and to every bird of the sky, and to everything that creeps on the earth, in which there is life, I have given every green herb for food;" and it was so.
31 God saw everything that he had made, and, behold, it was very good. There was evening and there was morning, a sixth day.
God never said anything about pollsters. And for good reason.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
Zogby has his friends. He and Richard Dawkins would get along famously, but frankly, why should anyone believe two men when it comes to deciding an important election unless both of them can get together and think that they're Gods?
My choice, ladies and gentlemen, is to focus not on what they know and control but on what you know and can influence. And frankly that's quite a lot between now and November 7. Have some faith. :)
Believe me brother, I have a veritable cornucopia of the substance of things hoped for and evidence of things not seen!
Polls are not news. Polls are right up there with Georgetown parties in removing elected GOP spines between elections.
we are on the same page 'ski
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
the polls would already be closed except for out west and in St Louis. I bet a lot of people would have missed voting, thinking it would be in November.
That's why I really just think we should all be concentrating on the fundamentals. Karl Rove is looking at the internal polling data and so is Mehlman and so is everyone else who wants the Party to win. So I'm not concentrating on it any more: I'm going to let them do their work and not muddy the waters.
The fundamentals in this election are clear and simple, and getting out the vote is pretty clear and simple. We have enough prognosticators in the MSM and elsewhere, and we've got people on our side who are telling us where to focus. Our job, right now, as I see it, is to help people get to the polls and bring out a lot of voters here in the home stretch. Do it honestly. Do it legitimately. Don't do it like the Kossacks do it. But Do It.
BTW: Did you see the Dallas/Panthers game last night? That's my model for this coming election. Fumbles are fumbles, capitalize on them, make the goals, and score the largest number of points in the 4th Quarter we've ever done. It was a perfect metaphor. Even Bill Parcells kissing dudes all over the place. He was a kissing fool! After this election is over and all the sweat is beading off of us, we'll remember Madden's words: "There's no deoderant like winning." And it's true.
Exactly "ski (digression-given my dual loyalties, I am a Vick fan for now....till unfair falcon weather - you know I moved to Charlotte in May after 6 years in ATL, but I an from Spartanburg, SC)
In fact, the point you made via parcells that winning is the best right guard
What is sad is that our elected GOP congressman seem to forget that they actually win elections and majorities since 1994 on conservative principles and policies when compared to dem libs and then base most of their behavior in office on between election polls that tell them that the voters that just elected them turned lib 72 hours later.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
the Democrats think that was Clinton's doing.
John
--------
Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.
... Jean-François Revel
You can bash most pollsters but Rasmussen isn't some flake or partisan hack.
And that GOTV dependence is one of the reasons the GOP is in this big muddy mess!
sometimes he/they get polls wrong too.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
with poll numbers based on weeks and days out from election day. I mean what matters is who wins, not the collective non-thinking conventional "wisdom" beltway mind's "expectations."
Everything gets analyzed not on the merits or the facts or the substance based on historical circumstances but rather on what some so-called expert expected. Those expectations are taken as gospel and reality is made to conform to that template whether its the war, economy or elections.
come Nov 8
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
I am watching the polling firm
It is a new organization so I am not sure what to think. Like most polls I would say take it with a grain of salt. The reason why I tend to think Majority Watch can be accurate is they actually show the partisian tilts of the people they asking. Most dont
Their polling indicates that Democrats already have won the house . . . and they aren't even polling races in Nebraska or Wyoming where Democrats seem to be running well.
While the Democrats may very well win the house, if this organization is to be believed, it would seem that the Democrats could have 230-240 seats when all is said and done. An unlikely result from my perspective.
Even if it Is temporary, we lose the war.
Bottom line. Screw the Senate. Save the House. Everything else is moot if we don't win the War.
"Always be honest with yourself even if you are honest with no one else...
...It helps you keep track of your lies..."
--Myself
the House? That's my thought about where the election is tonight: right on the edge. And some judge somewhere very well could determine who gets the majority. The Senate looks really tough right now with a four to six loss likely. At least we will know who is in the majority there the following morning.
RealClearPolitics' House and Senate analyses have been dead on this cycle, I think we will see.
Gut-wrenching but exciting stuff here.
and start campaigning? It's called "Why they play the game". I guess Oregon State didn't believe the spread and showed up anyway to whup SC. What a bunch of knitters and quilters.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
The polls have made no sense. Cardin gets pounded by Steele in debates and blows of the NAACP and a new polls shows a big lead? Webb was flailing before the weird writing stuff shows up and now he is up big? McCaskill was flailing and after getting pounded on the MJ Fox she is now ahead?
Rasmussen had a good reputation for 2004. However pollster can get it wrong. Remember Zogby was infallable in the late 90s/early 2000 and is now not taken seriously. I'm not saying he is cooking the numbers, I just believe lifestyles and technology has changed so much traditional phone polling is probably not as accurate as before.
As said above the only poll that matters is on 11/7. And that is based on GOTV.
explaining why the Rasmussen poll might be misleading, so I won't comment on that. Allow me to simply say that while I have tremendous respect for Rasmussen Reports, that poll seems to be an outlier.
The news about Burns is good, although frankly I expected him to have pulled ahead by now. He is an incumbent, after all, in a state that tends to re-elect its incumbents. He needs to gain 3 to 4 points in the next week, or he goes home.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
explaining why the Rasmussen poll might be misleading, so I won't comment on that. Allow me to simply say that while I have tremendous respect for Rasmussen Reports, that poll seems to be an outlier.
The news about Burns is good, although frankly I expected him to have pulled ahead by now. He is an incumbent, after all, in a state that tends to re-elect its incumbents. He needs to gain 3 to 4 points in the next week, or he goes home.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
I dont see all the doom and gloom. This is an off year election and turnout is key to victory. I suspect that republican voters will have more reasons to come and vote than democrats. The democrat turnout for the primaries was only 15%.Real Clear Politics in their analysis has no democrat house or senate seat losses - its just republican seats.I sent an email to Sabato pointing out his predictions are way off.The dem's will lose house seats In-7 is one, Dickerson I suspect will be the winner. The dem's are in serious trouble in Michigan. The economy lags behind the rest of the country and there is alot of discontent.
have collaborated on a new political ad for the GOP. Morris wrote the ad and Citizens United produced it. Morris said they've contracted $300,000 so far and are looking for somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 million.
I watched the ad on Hannity and Colmes a few minutes ago, and it is simply awesome. The message was hard-hitting and sent Colmes right over the edge.
The theme is the NSA's Terrorist Surveillance Program, it's successes and what would happen to the program if the democrats gain control of congress.
To paraphrase the ending:
"Vote Republican Like Your Life Depends On It....Because It Does."
***
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
Poll taken 10/26-29.
"Likely voters.
Allen (R) 46 (previous: 48)
Webb (D) 50 (previous: 45)
MoE 4%
:-(
(everyone needs a lib friend, to sharpen your sword against) :-D
CNN, he says.
**Stop Press**
'Opinion Research for CNN', not Gallup. I don't know Opinion Research, but apparently they do CNNs polls. Well, there you go.
I gotta tell you guys, that I didn't believe that Webb ever had a prayer in virginia until i saw the rasmussen/gallap polls today. Now, I still don't believe he's gonna pull it off, but it's pretty clearly going to go down to the wire.
My question is this (from a purely "love of the game angle"): what has Allen been doing over the last month? I don't live in Virginia and I'm not conservative, but from what I've seen it seems he's pretty much gone into "prevent" defense mode. Sure, there's been some sniping on the airwaves, but from what I gather he isn't really nearly as visible as he was in August.
Am I wrong about that? Because I can't think of any other explanation for why Webb is making this a race.
More importantly -- again, I'm trying to avoid any talk about who is "better" or anything like that -- is it even possible for Allen to reverse course and get more aggressive without appearing like he's going down? Every time I see a candidate (left, right, or center) "pull out all the stops" after being low key, it always seems to hurt as much as it helps.
Just a thought...and I'd love to hear what a conservative, let alone conservative virginian, has to say.
- kh
"Which side will you take? For the law and against justice, or for justice and against the law?"
- Peter Kropotkin, "An Appeal To The Young"
Webb is basically a Republican himself, probably as conservative as Allen in many respects. The question is, why are Democrats voting for this guy? He represents the Buchanan wing of the GOP, after all.
Others factors - the media, esp the WaPo, have pretty much behaved as extensions of the DNC. If Webb had to pay for the services they have rendered him he's be out tens of millions of dollars.
And Virginias demographics are changing as more government workers pour into the state.
His anti-iraq war stance dates back to OpEd's he wrote in 2002.
As a result he gets the 'cut and run' vote.
...Webb is a strong enough candidate in his own right, especially for a place like Virginia. And, like any (non post-9/11) off-year election, the Presiden't party is bound to take a beating.
The confusion is that Webb has continued to gain. Now, it's a few polls, I know. And I still think Allen holds him off.
But I reckoned that after August, when Allen still had a lead, that it would pretty much calcify at 4-6 points that Webb would never be able to surmount. And I'm trying to figure out why Allen continued to slide. It's Virginia. He was a pretty good bet to be in the Presidential mix. He's done pretty well before.
And I just can't believe that Webb is winning it as much as Allen is losing it.
And I'm just trying to get the scoop on why that is.
As for the strange bedfellows of politics, there are a few hundred "Republicans" throughout the Northeast and here in Illinois, that would be to the left of either party's candidates in races all over the country. Webb is nothing but the national Dems finally figuring out that there are plenty of Democrats who like our guns just fine and don't think abortion is a sacrament.
"Which side will you take? For the law and against justice, or for justice and against the law?"
- Peter Kropotkin, "An Appeal To The Young"
It does not suit you.
I pointed out the reasons. You chose to ignore them.
Webb is nothing but the national Dems finally figuring out that there are plenty of Democrats who like our guns just fine and don't think abortion is a sacrament.
If you actually think that the national Dems have figured that out, then you are not smart enough to be quoting Kropotkin. If the Democrats allow a conservative judge with a skeptical view of Roe to get on the SC, I'll give you my house. I'm not worried that I'll be homeless.
...I like to think I could be well more coy than that.
1) As for Webb being conservative, there's no disputing that. I was assuming that when I asked the question (because if there was enough daylight between most of their policies, I would naturally just guess that that's all it was and never bother you folks with the post).
I suppose one could -- and maybe you did -- suggest that some of Webb's positions are actually more paleo-conservative (George Will's designation, not mine) than Allen's, and maybe they resonate with some conservative Virginians (while liberal Virginians will vote for anyone who isn't a Republican). But I don't think that's what you were saying. So, we're still where we started: if Webb and Allen are *both* Conservative, then why is Allen having such trouble. I just wouldn't expect it, that's all.
2) As for abortion, I didn't come here to get into the Democratic Party's core values, assuming anyone could define that at the moment, and I can't believe anyone here would be very happy if I did. Still, I used the word "sacrament" for a reason. I'm not suggesting that the Democratic Party is dropping the issue and that its Supreme Court nominees would not support Roe (the most absurdly tenuous Supreme Court opinion this lawyer has ever read, by the way). I'm just saying that the Democratic Party seems to be figuring out -- just as the Republican Party did with all it's officeholders from Boston to D.C., and in Chicago, as well as large parts of the upper Midwest -- that it can't expect, let alone require 100% fidelity on issues the national party may be pushing.
I just figured that I'd drop in and see if I couldn't get a Conservative's opinion about Allen. I could go to Daily Kos, but I already know what I'll hear...and I'm pretty sure it's not the whole stoty. If nobody wants to clue this lefty in, I understand. But I truly am trying my hardest to show some respect and not try to engage in any (at least overtly) political talk.
- jk
"Which side will you take? For the law and against justice, or for justice and against the law?"
- Peter Kropotkin, "An Appeal To The Young"
since you did not read what I wrote before.
There are some powerful forces working in Webbs favor. Besides his conservativism there is the changing demographic makeup in VA, which is slowly become less part of the South and more part of the North East.
Tied into that is the fact that Democrats will cheerfully vote for a person with the letter D after his name, regardless of what he stands for. Webb gets all the usual Dem voters plus some cross-over Republicans.
And the media have targeted Allen for distruction, running countless attack jobs on him while covering up for Webb. More so than any Republican except for Bush, Allen is the medias big prize in these elections. So its no surprise this is a tight election. It has been for a long time. Ever since the WaPo ran those 956 stories on "macaca".
"Which side will you take? For the law and against justice, or for justice and against the law?"
- Peter Kropotkin, "An Appeal To The Young"
Why aren't there any powerful forces working on the GOP's behalf in any important races? We just continue to take a pounding and there is no "surprise" or event to really fire up and rally the troops. As of now, we're just sitting ducks.
The Republican base needs some good news this week, but the Allen/Webb bad-news polls will be the big story tomorrow.
soooooo funny...
Hahaha, you are annoying real Republicans by sort of pretending to be one. Oh my. I'm rolling on the floor. How clever. No one has ever thought of this before.
Seriously, you are going to win an election in a week. Go be happy about that and leave us alone.
In the Meet the Press debate I was shocked to hear that Webb disapproved of affirmative action except as a direct remedy for slavery. That comment got no play anywhere that I heard of.
What separates Allen from Webb is Iraq and that Allen has run an absolutely clumsy, horrible campaign. Allen has had a checkered past, but he opened himself up by letting his temper get the better of him at that rally in August with his macaca, welcome to America comment. He was angry, perhaps rightfully so, about being followed around by a video camera. But that's what politics is about and he let his personal weaknesses and anger get the better of him and he made some ill-considered remarks which opened up the door to some incidents in his past that were not that terrific.
And then the attack on Webb for a book that has been on the Marine's reading list which let Webb emphasize his long military history. That was a grade-A goof. I think if Allen had just done rope a dope until the election, he would have won. But he didn't and now it appears that his ship is sinking. Maybe he will pull it out, but based on the latest polls, it looks like the electorate has turned against him.
I went back on the RCP spread of all the polls going back several months and I noticed that this was the only Rasmussen polling done on a Sunday(10/29), so YES I personally believe this one to be an aberration.
How do I justify my logic? Simple. Just go and check out the polling data yourselves for the last months, and you will notice that Rasmussen only started doing one day polling about the beginning of October. Most of the other Rasmussen polls were done over a 2-3 day period prior to last month. Why did they start doing single day polling suddenly?
Another point is that the polling was done on a Sunday. Usually Rasmussen is a bit more conscientious about when they do their polling. Don't know why they polled on a day when most self-described Conservatives are at church or visiting family out of town. Add to this that the NFL is in full swing, and I doubt you are going to get many hardcore football fans to answer a voters poll then.
Finally, swings of this type just don't happen. The last time a poll reflected this kind of swing, it was when SUSA had Claire McCaskill up 9 points and then their next SUSA survey had Talent back up by something like 2 or 3. Now even though some of these races are close, those kinds of erractic swings just don't happen in the electorate and they don't make sense. I'm not a pollster but I have been studying polls and results much of my young life and I've never seen a political season that has the kind of so-called 'shifts' that this one has produced. It's my gut feeling that most of these pollsters are trying so hard to read the mood of the electorate that they are outwitting themselves with different methodologies and getting see-saw type results.
Anyway, these are just my opinions so take them as you will. I will point out that Allen seems quite confident going into the final week whereas I don't get the same sense from the Webb campaign.
The GOP will win in Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Montana and will pull an upset in Maryland. Again, just my on feelings on the subject. Oh yeah, we will also keep the House as well.
Are both polls picking up some phantom momentum?
until after the election. The trolls are out in force these days.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
I'd read Daily Kos if I wanted a reminder of that.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
... than I do to Majority Watch and Zogby Interactive polls. They're almost totally useless. The Majority Watch polls shamelessly contradict most other polls and are just a joke, imo. I mean, I don't even remember hearing of them before this election cycle.
The polling outfits that I respect are Mason-Dixon, Survey USA and, to a lesser degree, Rasmussen. The rest are generally questionable to varying degrees.
I have voted - have you?
I know tradesports can be maniplated fairly easily, but very unusual tradig in the last 2 hrs- Webb was trading at 30 earlier in day, now trading over 50, while Allen was trading over 68 earlier, now trading at 47- you rarely if ever see this large a move in a 2 hr period