When Ten Years is not a Trend
Nevermind That Data Behind the Curtain. Look at These Dire Predictions
By Mark I Posted in Environment | Global Warming | Liberals | Miscellanea | radical environmentalists — Comments (65) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The proponents of man-made Global Warming have been dealt another serious blow. The United Nations World Meteorological Organisation’s official forecast predicts that global temperatures will be cooler in 2008, again. If it is correct, this will be the tenth consecutive year that global temperatures have not increased. Temperatures stopped increasing in 1998, according to the allegedly impartial world body.
But the Secretary General of the organization, Michel Jarraud, says that the cooling does not constitute a challenge to Global Warming theory. Amazingly, he says that one must not take the evidence of ten straight years of decreasing temperatures as indicative of anything when it comes to the consensus view that Global Warming is real. Rather, he says, one must “look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming."
In other words, even when it’s cooling, it’s warming.
Ten years seems like a pretty long time considering that in the mid-1970s the consensus view on the climate was that a new ice age was coming. It only took about 15 years to completely reverse that thinking. But Mr. Jarraud doesn’t want anyone to get the idea that the last ten years are significant because the worldwide left has invested so heavily in Global Warming. Any evidence that casts doubt on Global Warming must be suppressed or spun so that it appears to actually fit the theory.
Mr. Jarraud also cautioned against looking at “any particular year” when assessing the global climate. But that is exactly what the Global Warming purveyors do every year. There have been countless news stories and breathless announcements that this year or that season, even this month or that date, “was the warmest on record.” Each of these are used as evidence to support the Known Fact that Global Warming is happening, man is responsible, and the consequences will be so dire that drastic and intrusive action is required on the part of world governments. There is almost no attention paid to relatively cold winters, or rainy summers, or inactive hurricane seasons as evidence of anything. Now, even ten consecutive years of steady and even declining temperatures are not significant.
There is more bad news for Mr. Jarraud and the Global Warming apologists. The meteorologists in his own agency say that the cooling…anomaly…is due to La Nina, the cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Worse, forecasters at the U.K. Met Office's Hadley Centre for Forecasting say that the cooling…searching for a word other than trend…could continue for another five years until La Nina’s counterpart, El Nino, again warms the Southern Pacific.
That analysis pretty clearly refutes the Global Warming crowd’s doctrine that the Earth’s warming is caused by man. If the natural phenomenon of La Nina lowers worldwide temperatures, and the equally natural phenomenon of El Nino raises them, what does that say for human activities? Clearly humans have no effect on the warmth of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, while man’s activities have changed since 1998, they haven’t changed so much as to cause a drop in the global temperature, or so the Global Warming activists would have us believe. And, while man’s activities are almost certainly going to become even more eco-friendly over the next five years, the world’s temperature is expected to peak again. Doesn’t all that seem to indicate that natural cycles and rhythms have far more impact on the climate than man does?
Not according to Mr. Jarraud. He dismisses La Nina as a, “variability.” “There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up,” he says. So that settles it. Forget the data. Nevermind the natural cycles of the Earth. Man is causing Global Warming because…well…because Mr. Jarraud and the worldwide left say so. That’s what his argument boils down to.
The more that we learn about the Earth’s climate, the less there is a clear picture of what is actually going on. About the only thing that is established with certainty is that Global Warming proponents will ignore any data, suppress any research finding, and spin any result to further their cause.