Redstate

By AcademicElephant Posted in Special Events — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

[UPDATE: The Washington Post, among other sources, has been reporting that the target was al Baghdadi--I just learned from a MNF-I spokesman that this is not the case--the al Qaeda body they have is neither al Masri nor al Baghdadi, but it is significant figure. We'll learn more at the press conference in five minutes.]

A "major al Qaeda operative" has been killed in fighting between joint Iraqi-US forces and insurgents north of Baghdad. This time there is a body and a press conference will be held shortly, so while there is not additional information on al-Masri, it seems this one is indeed dead.

One way or the other, this flurry of anti-al Qaeda activity is, in conjunction with what has been happening in al-Anbar province, "certainly...a trend" as Lt. Col. Christopher Garver told me yesterday. There does appear to be concrete movement away from the al Qaeda terrorists who have worked so hard to fulment sectarian strife and so destablize Iraq. The demise of these two no-gooders would not spell the end of all violence, but it sure might be the beginning of the end of the current crisis because it removes a major instigators of the insurgancy. Terrorist activity in Iraq is not like the 9/11 operation in which al Qaeda members infiltrated the US for years before the actual attack and created their own support network. As AQI moves into Iraq, it immediately starts operations, and depends on a local (Sunni) support network for basic survival. Recent reports have suggested that the Sunni north of Baghdad have started to close their doors to the al Qaeda agents who have brought them nothing but death and misery. But as with everything in Iraq, the proof is in the pudding. And at long last this looks like proof. If al Masri and al Baghdadi are indeed dead in the same week and the same area, it seems that these Sunni are beginning to take some pretty serious actions against their tormenters.

Read on for Lt. Col. Garver's full remarks on this topic below the fold...

I think I would certainly call it a trend based on the emergence of the Anbar Salvation Council. Based on the Anbar tribes coming together to support the government of Iraq, to work within the political process.

Last fall they would work on police drives in Ramadi to get recruits. They’d get no one. In the latest police drives they have 800-100 people showing up to join the police. The elimination of al Qaeda in Anbar. Then what we have seen is violence against the population in Anbar that’s not even directed against the coalition. They’re going out and using these chlorine tanks strapped to truck beds to increase the amount of casualties and damage that’s being done to the population and try and cause more harm against their own population—a Sunni population that has supported them in the past.

We’ve seen neighborhoods who are at night running armed neighborhood watches to keep al Qaeda out. About a month ago there was a small town up between Fallujah and Baghdad and the citizenry went after a group of al Qaeda operatives who were coming into the city and fought them off and scared them off.

So you see some of this rejection of al Qaeda violence—they still have some support up there, but we’re working to assist in eliminating that. And I’m not saying that’s going to be the end of all trouble in Anbar—they’ve got a lot of issues out there. But as a trend, we see more support toward the government. Prime Minister Maliki went out there and met with the Sheiks about a month ago, and it was the first time a leader had gone to Anbar in 25 years. So a significant event—and working together towards a common goal and getting rid of al Qaeda and the violence they bring.

So I certainly would not be surprised if a Sunni tribe and an al Qaeda cell had gotten in a gun fight because we’ve seen that out west. I also would not be surprised if it were a fracturing amongst Sunni insurgents because we’ve seen both the Sunni insurgency and seen some of the Shia militias such as JAM, we’ve seen fracturing amongst them as well as we eliminate leaders, as we capture and kill leaders, and as the politics of the day continues on you see people with different thoughts as to where these organizations should go or what they should do, and General Petraeus has specifically talked about—there are insurgants who are reconcilable and those who are not. So we will not say that everyone in JAM is an enemy because there are some who may be reconcilable and who may be able to be brought into the political process to become a member of society, and then there may be some who are not—and then we’ll obviously have to deal with them in another fashion.

So it would not surprise me if al Masri had been killed in a fight amongst themselves because we see fracturing and in monitoring some of the al Qaeda traffic since Zarqawi was killed—I think even in open-source reporting you can—the idea he may or may not be the “true” leader of Iraq and everyone may or may not support him—we’ve seen that sort of thing coming out of the jihadist websights, so it’s another element of al Qaeda or some other Sunni extremist may be very possible.

It’s all speculation right now, but that’s kind of the current state of al Qaeda right now—that they’ve been weakened and damaged by the efforts over the last year as we continue on. Still capable of producing horrific bombing attacks, and you see that if you go look over the last three months—most of the targeting of al Qaeda has been against the population. Not an insurgency attacking us. General Casey used to say that you kind of understand that. If they feel they’ve been occupied, if they don’t like the American presence, that kind of makes sense. But you see them going into markets and killing Iraqi citizens and they’re in neighborhoods that are mixed Sunni and Shia—so it’s them declaring war on Iraq and a unified Iraq and an Iraq with a strong central government. And so the violence often isn’t based against us. They still will occasionally attack us, but most of their attacks are against the populace.