Another poll for your consideration
For the sake of variety, this one is from Venezuela
By AcademicElephant Posted in Contra Tyrannum — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The Venezuelan presidential election is starting to look like a dead heat. Caracas-based public opinion research company AKSA Partners released a new poll yesterday that shows Hugo Chavez leading his challenger, Manuel Rosales, by just four points (52-48). The same poll showed Mr. Chavez with a 13 point lead in September--and of course before Mr. Rosales emerged as a candidate, Mr. Chavez did not expect any kind of a race, let alone such a close one.
Read on...
It should be noted that other polls show Mr. Chavez with a stronger lead, but AKSA appears to have a larger sample and a stronger history of polling in Venezuela. If these numbers accurately reflect voter sentiment, Mr. Chavez may be facing an unappetizing choice. He is certainly capable of manipulating the vote to "win" the election, but he probably needs more than a just a win. His power is built on the impression that he enjoys overwhelming popular support, so he needs a decisive victory--not the sort of drawn out contest we just saw in Mexico. But if there are additional polls along these lines, Mr. Chavez will have trouble making a double digit margin look credible. It looks as if he's beginning to get pretty nervous; the Rosales campaign has released a video showing Rafael Ramirez, the Venezuelan oil minister, urging workers at the state oil company to vote for Mr. Chavez, a technique that Mr. Rosales calls "coercion." There are also alarming signs that Mr. Chavez may be arming supporters in preparation for retaining power by force if he is thwarted at the ballot box.
In any event, a Chavez victory is far from the done deal that his supporters are trying to claim. Mr. Rosales is running a tough campaign, and this poll will be a massive shot in the arm for his supporters. A month is a long time in politics. Stay tuned.
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Another poll for your consideration 7 Comments (0 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Chavez is nothing more than a 21st century criollo in socialist clothing. His objectives are parochial and not aimed at the populace. He should at least be aware they have figured this out in a fairly quick manner.
If anything, Latin American history has helped her populace remain extremely adroit at identifying self serving rulers. Accordingly, Chavez's social spending pales in comparison to the adventurist defense purchases and accompanying propaganda. Most of Venezuela's population is not buying a need for protection from any sovereign nation that requires MIG's and other assorted military hardware. The business community also sees shrinking opportunities and income. History tells us that will not be tolerated for very long.
This is a classic Latin American drama and accordingly will probably get worse before improving. My fear is that Chavez will take the familiar route of dictatorship. Unfortunately with that undertaking comes all the diabolical accoutrements.
In the end, this means very little to the US since Chavez is nothing more than a thug with closet Democrat Party liberals secretly egging him on and chortling at the anti-Bush rhetoric. Sadly, to Venezuela it means another step backwards that will have them pinning for a new wave of peninsulares.
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
"Mr." to that thug...
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
they have a very good change of once again proving that my signature line is correct. Let's hope the majority has the good sense to dump him before it's too late.
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Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
Or am I the only one who thinks that there is no way Chavez gives up power to his merely democratically elected successor? Or that he can be coerced to do so? I'm not holding my breath, in any case.
Be not afraid
And he quite possibly can. He controls all the machinery of the electoral process, right down to the voting machines. The kind of paranoia Dems have had about Diebold is actually justified in Venezuela.
On the flip side, if he is generally recognized as having stolen the election, as opposed to having won a fair election, the next coup attempt by the generals might get a little more support from the outside world. It is one thing to run a coup against someone who was elected in a fair election; it's quite another thing to run a coup against someone who stole an election and is trying to replace democracy with dictatorship.
But if there are additional polls along these lines, Mr. Chavez will have trouble making a double digit margin look credible.
poll, conducted by the noted polling firm of Hugo & Chavez, shows the incumbent President Hugo Chavez winning the election by whatever number of votes are required to win.
John
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Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.
... Jean-François Revel