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Stephen Hadley takes to the air

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Sunday, July 15, 2007

On MTP, Tim Russert had Jim Webb and Lindsey Graham on his show to discuss the quagmire. Graham spoke against Congress micromanaging the troops, and he argued that Congress should wait until hearing the September report before pulling any plugs. Webb said it was not a war but a "botched occupation," and that Graham was all stressed about the immigration bill.

On FNS, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley spoke of "bottom-up reconciliation," whereby the local government took the lead in providing security. He added that the process of evaluation would begin in September, after that report from General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker.

Next up on FNS, Carl Levin declared that the Surge was over and that there was no political progress. He wants the troops out by next April, which will force the Iraqis to take care of things themselves. Fred Kagan of AEI talked about the surge next on FNS, mention that those who try to differentiate between fighting al Qaeda in Iraq and fighting domestic insurgents are creating a false dichotomy, as the former incites and fuels the latter.

On TW, Hadley told Steph that there was no need for the Warner-Lugar amendment, as Congress has already laid out a "sensible schedule" last May. Warner and Lugar were next, much less disagreeable than they had previously appeared. They said that they were merely trying to have the President be prepared to act after the September report. Warner wants to change the Iraq resolution, because he thinks the original resolution, which he helped write, called only for protecting the U.S. against Saddam Hussein and enforcing the United Nations resolutions against Saddam Hussein's government. Lugar refused to differentiate between al Qaeda in Iraq and al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan, as Steph tried to solicit, and he called on the President to plan to fight terrorism everywhere, "not just in Iraq."

On FTN, Hadley said that the Iraqi parliament had already called off their July recess and he hoped they would delay their August vacation until they come up with their ground rules for power sharing. He said that September would be the starting point for reevaluation. Schieffer said that though he disagreed, Hadley was entitled to his opinion.

Next on FTN, Senator Lamar Alexander pushed the Salazar-Alexander proposal to adopt Baker-Hamilton as the bipartisan way forward. He said that it would have sixty votes if the Senate if only the President would be less stubborn and dingy Harry would be less partisan.

On LE, Guest host Suzanne Malveaux (soo-ZAHN mal-VOH) asked how the President could justify the war on terror when al Qaeda, after six years, was stronger than ever. He explained that they weren't; rather, that they had a little spot now in Pakistan. She criticized Tony Snow for, in her view, giving the Iraqi parliament a pass on an August recess when it was 130° in Baghdad by declaring it was 130° also for our troops who were "losing their limbs and not seeing their babies born."

Next on LE, Jack Reed told Suzanne Malveaux that General Petraeus had told him that he would be ready to report by the end of August. Trent Lott said that we should give the troops until September. Suzanne Malveaux called up a survey which showed that over 60% of Americans think the surge is a miserable failure.

And read the show-by-show review below the fold…

WEBB, GRAHAM, AND RUSSERT. On NBC's Meet the Press, host Tim Russert talked to Senators Lindsey Graham and Jim Webb. Senator Webb responded to a question from Russert by declaring that Democrats were not trying to run the war, because "there is no war. … It's a botched occupation." He said that everything he had predicted would happen if we invaded Iraq has happened, and it is the obligation of Congress "to bring order to this." Webb thinks Congress should put some restraints on how our troops are being used in Iraq, just like they did to Truman. He spewed forth the mantra that Bush brought al Qaeda to Iraq, and Iraq is the "biggest recruiting tool."

Russert averred that the Army missed all of its recruiting goals and is overextended. He asked Senator Graham what was so wrong with Webb's amendment to give the troops a year's vacation? Graham responded that Webb was trying to let Congress micromanage the troops, and his effort should and will fail.

Graham pointed out that the local governments in Iraq were the ones beating al Qaeda; it is the national government which still has to get its act together. Russert reminded Graham that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki had said that the Iraqis could handle things by themselves, so why don't we take their cue and leave? Graham said that the Iraqis could not secure the country on their own, and we should listen to what General Petraeus has to say in September. He pointed out that Maliki was only expressing confidence in his own troops, not asking us to leave.

Jim Webb accused the Iraqis of "redneck justice" in fighting al Qaeda. They fight al Qaeda because al Qaeda is their enemy, not because they support the United States. Webb repeated the line about the Iraqis will never get along no matter when we leave, as they have been engaged in mortal combat for 2,000-years. No one asked him to source this.

Al Qaeda came to Iraq because the United States is there, Jim Webb guffawed. (Not because they want to build the caliphate and Saddam was no longer in operation.)

Finally, Jim Webb laughed that Lindsey Graham was all stressed out by having to stick with the President on the immigration bill.

STEVEN HADLEY ON FNS. Brit Hume hosted FOX News Sunday again, and his first guest was National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley. Hume pointed out that the progress report issued last week showed that there wasn't progress on many goals. Hadley said that there had been progress on both the security side and the civil side, and there would be more seen over the next sixty days. He talked of the tribes aligning against al Qaeda and the local governments stepping up to provide security. He sees that progress moving toward the national level. He called it a "bottom-up reconciliation."

His argument was that it is too early to judge these things. The process of evaluation will begin with the September report from General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, along with the concomitant reports. The "first step," Hadley said, will be "hearing from the commanders on the ground in September."

LEVIN ON FNS. Carl Levin, the combover from Michigan, was Brit's next guest. Levin declared that we needed to limit our mission, not concern ourselves with exact troop numbers. He repeated the tired, old line about "changing course." He belittled the Bush Administration for talking so often of "steady progress." He wants something dramatic.

Levin declared that the "surge is completed" and there is "no political progress." General Petraeus says the surge has begun, Levin argues that it has ended. Levin seems to admit military progress but he laments that there is little national political progress in terms of the benchmarks.

Levin says that the Dems will push a measure which has our troops out of there by April 30, but he expects that Republicans will try to filibuster this. Levin says that our only chance of success is to get out and make the Iraqis take care of their problems themselves.

FRED KAGAN ON FNS. AEI resident scholar Fred Kagan was Hume's next guest. This is the caliber of person I would like to see debate Jim Webb, but only because, I suspect, I'm sometimes something of an intellectual masochist. Kagan is credited as one of the "architects of the surge."

Kagan said that there was a huge amount of political progress taking place locally, and the critics of the military strategy refuse to adjust the political strategy to meet this reality. He said that the surge "is going very well," and that it is the "largest counter-insurgency operation" we've ever undertaken. It is a "large-scale, coordinated offensive."

Kagan accused those who try to separate the fight against al Qaeda from what they term a "civil war" of manufacturing a "false dichotomy." The sectarian violence is a product of al Qaeda, he argued, stoked by al Qaeda as a means of dividing the country and preventing the formation on a unified Iraqi government. This is not a new argument, but it is one the opposition has yet to adequately address.

Kagan said that it was too early to tell if we are winning, but he emphasized that we are no longer losing. Events are trending in the desirable direction.

STEPH AND HADLEY ON TW. On ABC's This Week, host George Stephanopoulos opened with National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, asking him what he thinks of Warner-Lugar, a bill described as one forcing the President "start planning for a redeployment out of Baghdad." Hadley called Senators Lugar and Warner, "Serious men." He said that the important thing to realize about what Warner and Lugar call for is what they are not calling for; they are not calling for a timeline or an arbitrary date certain. And they talk about how important success in Iraq is to "Americans here at home." AND, Hadley continued, Lugar and Warner talk about how we'll have to be involved in Iraq for a "substantial period of time." He pointed out that Congress had already laid out a "sensible schedule" in May. Hadley argued that we should start discussing the new phase of operations in September, after we've heard from our commanders on the ground.

Steph argued that nothing could change by September because the Iraqi parliament had not had a quorum since last June. Hadley said that they had a quorum last week.

And we're going to talk about a "viable Palestinian state," which we will support financially.

Steph took him back to Iraq, and Hadley explained that political progress will be a "lagging indicator," as it first needs progress on security to move forward. He predicted continued security progress, continued bottom-up progress, and, he hopes, more progress at the central government level.

Steph plays a clip of the President declaring that the same people who were fighting us in Iraq were the ones who attacked us on 9-11. Steph argued that Bush was lying, as most of the hijackers were Saudi Arabian, al Qaeda in Mesopotamia didn't exist in 2001, etc. (I would expect something like that coming from a dullard like Jim Webb, but Steph's too bright to miss a straightforward concept.) Hadley semantically avoided the concept by telling Steph that the President was saying only that al Qaeda had attacked us on 9-11 and al Qaeda had made Iraq their "central front" in the war on terror. Steph argued that al Qaeda in Iraq wasn't really a problem, didn't do that much. Hadley countered that they were the "principal accelerator" of the violence.

WARNER AND LUGAR ON TW. Steph next spoke with Senators Warner and Lugar, the latter of whom was a big head on a pretty nice high-def monitor. Lugar said he hopes that the President and General Petraeus are engaged in planning so that they are prepared to act after the September 15 report. He said his June 25 speech was merely his way of giving the President a chance to plan for the future himself; instead, the President chose to work with General Petraeus and take a few extra months. Lugar said that the President was sending Secretaries Rice and Gates to the Middle East, which is also something for which he asked in his June 25 speech.

Senator Warner said the he wants to trash the original resolution against Iraq because it no longer applies. He helped draft it, he says, and it stipulates only that the United States must be protected against Saddam Hussein's Iraq and that the U.N. sanctions against Saddam Hussein will be enforced. He wants the President to propose to Congress what he'd like the revised resolution to look like. He wants to show the world the "clear support between the Congress and the President" for the President's thusly modified plan. (He does not seem to understand why the Dems oppose the effort in Iraq. It's electoral politics, Senator, a game to them.) Warner argued that the President put forward his strategy in January and though there were some misgivings about it then, but "once it went into effect -- the troops started fighting -- the Congress fell in behind it, the President." (Has he been dozing?) He said that nothing in Warner-Lugar would change the President's strategy.

Warner says he only wants the President to be prepared with how to go forward after the reports.

Lugar said that they have reached out to Democrats and hoped that Democrats would support the amendment "simply as matter of common sense." He said that Harry Reid was wrong; Congress does not have the power to tie the President to timelines a dates certain, except for cutting off funds in an appropriations bill. He did say that the Congress can advise the President.

Steph said that the surge wasn't going to work. He asked if the Senate were ready to come together and "compel a different strategy." Lugar said that the Administration was already thinking through our military commitments and that we're stretched thin by Iraq.

Warner and Lugar agreed that we had to remain in the region, as we have too many vital interests.

Warner said that they ask the President to give to the nation his revision of strategy which comports with the situation on the ground. They ask this by October 16. General Petraeus will report, Lugar said, and the President will decide what is the strategy.

Steph asked Lugar which al Qaeda was the bigger threat to U.S. security, al Qaeda in Iraq or al Qaeda in Pakistan/Afghanistan. Lugar answered, "Al Qaeda everywhere." He did not differentiate. He called on the President to come up with a strategy that fights terrorism everywhere, "not just in Iraq."

HADLEY ON FTN. Bob Schieffer was back to host CBS' Fact the Nation, and his first guest to discuss "what are we going to do about Iraq" was National Security Advisor Steve Hadley. Bob said that the key question was that with the Iraqis bolting for a month in August, how dare the President ask our troops to fight for the vacationers? Hadley said that they were not going on vacation, as the Iraqis were fighting in the surge, in helping to take control of the security situation so that a political solution will be possible. He talked of local institutions setting up situations, which he called "bottom-up reconciliation." He asked "what is the problem with the top-down reconciliation in Baghdad?" He posited that it was power sharing. Schieffer agreed. Hadley said that the Iraqis will be working six-days a week on this. Hadley wants the Iraqis to "stay in session and work on this problem." They have already cancelled their July vacation. If they can get the power sharing done, they can work on the other legislation.

Schieffer asked why September 15 was "magic," why we couldn't think about any changes anywhere prior to that date. Hadley pointed to the "orderly process" set up by Congress in May requiring various reports, including the September report. Schieffer repeated that this wasn't working. Hadley said that it was working, as the local governments were coming together.

Schieffer asked if the situation will be different in September. Hadley said that it will, as we will have had two additional months with our security strategy in place.

Schieffer said that though he disagrees that September is the starting point, he will accept that as Hadley's position.

LAMAR! ON FTN. Schieffer's next guest was Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander, the splitter who wants to make law from the outdated ISG report. Lamar thinks General Petraeus's strategy is not working and we need a new one. He thinks the President should "embrace" Baker-Hamilton to have a bipartisan strategy, as the Democrats won't agree with anything he says.

Schieffer asked Lamar if he agreed with Hadley that Iraq will appear "a lot different in September." Alexander responded that he didn't know and that it didn't matter. He said that if the President were more flexible and dingy Harry were less partisan, the ISG report could get sixty votes in the Senate and they could go forward holding bipartisan hands.

Alexander criticized Warner-Lugar as a Republican proposal, while Salazar-Alexander is a bipartisan proposal.

Alexander channeled the sagacity of Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton and said that these oracles had foretold that there would be no good options but that theirs was the best.

Lamar said he does not now have enough votes, but it is "still the right course of action."

STEPHEN HADLEY ON LE. Suzanne Malveaux (soo-ZAHN mal-VOH) first talked to National Security Advisor Steve Hadley about an old clip of OBL al Qaeda had released. Where does it say we are in this war against terror, that they can do this? Hadley replied that it showed that showed that al Qaeda was still with us. Malveaux quoted the WashPost as reporting that Bush had failed in the war against terror after six years, as al Qaeda had gained strength. Hadley countered that al Qaeda was nowhere near where they would have been had we not been fighting them. He said it was a problem in the tribal regions of Pakistan, but that President Musharraf now recognized this and was sending in troops to stop it.

Malveaux wondered if the United States were now going to demand to send troops into Pak. Hadley replied that Musharraf had a "safe haven problem," but that we've been encouraging him to take action.

Malveaux wanted to know how the President could justify, what with al Qaeda being reconstituted, that we are safer than we were six years ago. Hadley repeated that they were nowhere near where they were on September 11 and that we're beating them.

Malveaux criticized the Iraq parliament going on vacation and played a clip of Tony Snow explaining that "it's 130° in Baghdad." Malveaux said that it is also 130° for our troops who are "losing their limbs and not seeing their babies born."

She played a clip of Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari as saying that the benchmarks attached to timelines were not helpful. Hadley argued that as the security situation improves, it will enable bottom-up and top-down reconciliation. He added that though timelines were difficult, they put pressure on the principals to get things done.

Hadley argued that Warner and Lugar were not arguing for a timeline for withdrawal, but he stressed the importance of waiting until the September report to being "transition to a different phase in Iraq."

REED AND LOTT ON LE. Senators Jack Reed and Trent Lott were next up for soo-ZAHN mal-VOH on Late Edition. She wanted to know whether war opponents could "gather enough votes to force the President's hand."

She asked Reed what General Petraeus had told him when they had dinner. Reed said that Petraeus was ready to report before September – "the end of August" -- and that the military couldn't take much more of this.

Lott argued that the "final element of the 30,000" had arrived in Iraq just three weeks ago. He called on people to give General Petraeus a chance. Lott acknowledged that Petraeus might report in late August or mid-September. "Let's at least give it a chance!"

She asked Lott if he agreed with Lugar and Warner, that the President had until August to come up with another plan. Lott agreed, and that we can't wait until the last minute to come up with a plan.

Suzanne showed a survey which showed that 22% of Americans think the surge is a success and 64% have declared it a failure.