A Unified Field Theory of Counterinsurgency
By streiff Posted in War — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I’m an operator by training and inclination. Theory is interesting but possibilities translated into actions on the ground are what fascinate me.
In this regards, I’ve been as underwhelmed by Bill Lind, John Robb, and the Fourth Generation Warfare apostles as I was by John Warden’s air power enthusiasts during the Gulf War. But sometimes a theory comes along which makes sense and seems to have practical applications.
Grim at BlackFive has combined social network analysis
and astrophysics
into a plausible and instructive way to view counterinsurgency operations.
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A Unified Field Theory of Counterinsurgency 3 Comments (0 topical, 3 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
...but not physically accurate, for several reasons (though I'll have my own fun with the comparison):
- An object entering a gravity well is not necessarily captured and held in orbit or accreted; it may pass by in a hyperbolic orbit that simply reorients its velocity in a new direction. Similarly, a motivated player may be influenced in their course by a mentor, but retain their independence along a different course.
- Every object exists in multiple gravity wells, proceeding in a direction subject to the resultant vector of these attracting forces. Man-made satellites, for example, are dominated by the earth's gravitation, yet the influence of lunar and solar gravity must be accounted for in long-duration path predictions. If you want to alter an object's course, you must either directly change its direction and energy state or introduce another gravity field of competing magnitude. So to overcome the influences in an adversary's life, we must present an overwhelming presence to have any hope of a course correction.
- No object ever escapes gravity fields entirely; even comets off in the distant Oort Cloud continually orbit our sun in cold, unseen darkness. So long as an attracting source exists, it exerts a finite force on all other objects. Similarly, so long as OBL continues to respirate, he is an inspiration to our enemies and a source of influence. Hmmm...then again, so are martyrs...
I think the author that you reference is more enamored of the terminology of astrophysics than cognizant of its effects, unless they're willing to posit a credible inverse-squared theory of counter-insurgency. Sociology, psychology, and flocking behavior are better descriptors of human subcultural dynamics.
you make the mistake of assuming that we and the Iraqi government cannot exert an attractive force that surpasses that offered by AQ or the Iraqi insurgency, that possibility was seemingly not entertained in your point 3.
Personally, I've yet to find sociology or psychology useful in explaining the actions of groups of humans in anything more than the most superficial means. Economics, and oddly enough fluid dynamics, will explain and predict behavior.
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
Iraq isn't just a "surge", it's a new strategy.